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000
FXUS64 KLZK 112349 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF
OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH AS A FRONT WILL SAG INTO ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS TO VFR...WHILE AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS AT 8 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 18 TO 30 KNOTS FROM
MIDNIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS MAY BE
SEEN. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN
MOST AREAS.

IT WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE MORE RAIN THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM IN MORE
AGGRESSIVELY AND HAS IT EXITING AR SOONER. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE SLOWER MODELS RUNS...WITH A MORE BLENDED APPROACH. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END. BEHIND THE WEEKEND
SYSTEMS...DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  51  30  57 /  30  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  59  34  61 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  48  29  59 /  30  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  56  32  60 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  56  32  58 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     51  59  34  59 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  56  32  61 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  49  29  58 /  40  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        44  52  30  55 /  30  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  57  33  59 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  52  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         45  53  31  57 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      48  55  32  57 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...224