Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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043
FXUS64 KLZK 122051
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER
LOCALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH
A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE GROUND WILL YIELD SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN PARTS
OF THE OZARKS AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS SUNDAY. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH.

IT MUST BE NOTED THAT DATA HAS SHOWN GRADUAL WARMING WITH EACH RUN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT IS ABOUT IT.

MOST MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL HANG ON IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHERE MOISTURE
LINGERS...IT WILL BE FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIP WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BEING ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA JUST
AFTER THE EXTENDED TERM...LIKELY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     23  33  23  39 /   0   0  10  50
CAMDEN AR         32  45  32  51 /   0   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       17  34  25  39 /   0   0  10  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  42  29  46 /   0   0   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  38  26  44 /   0   0   0  30
MONTICELLO AR     31  41  30  50 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  43  30  46 /   0   0   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  18  34  23  36 /   0   0  10  50
NEWPORT AR        23  32  23  39 /   0   0  10  50
PINE BLUFF AR     30  38  29  47 /   0   0   0  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  41  26  42 /   0   0  10  40
SEARCY AR         24  34  24  42 /   0   0  10  40
STUTTGART AR      28  36  26  46 /   0   0   0  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...53



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