Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271741 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...

OVERALL CLOUDS WERE THINNING ACROSS AR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH AR THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN TIMING AND LOCATION...AND ONLY USED VCSH
OR VCTS IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN BECOME SW TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A W TO NW WIND FLOW. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 1010 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE TO LOWER POPS OVER CENTRAL AR TO FINE TUNE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR CONVECTION TRENDS. MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA. STRONGEST IS IN SE AR AND MOVING TO THE
ENE. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH TO CENTRAL OK. EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TODAY...AND DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION. DYNAMICS HAVE
WEAKENED...WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS MOISTURE...AND STILL EXPECTED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED...MAINLY
FOCUSED IN EASTERN AR WHERE INSTABILITY AND LIFT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
SPC HAS LOWERED AR TO ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON TO
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE THINNING IN
WESTERN AR...AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW
MID 80S MAY BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS BREAK...MORE SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURGED INTO ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY WEAKENED. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD AT DAYBREAK...BUT WILL FALL APART AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MOST MODEL OUTPUT/SIMULATED RADARS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN. ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS
COULD POP UP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MORE READILY FROM
MISSOURI INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A
SYSTEM ALOFT MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM EAST OF LITTLE ROCK THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN LOUISIANA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DEEP
TROUGH WILL BE TRANSITING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PULL THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY AND
SHIFTING NORTH WITH TIME.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT MOVE OUT OF THE STATE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OZARKS...PULLING THE FRONT EAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  58  82  58 /  60  20   0  10
CAMDEN AR         82  60  86  64 /  60  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       78  54  80  54 /  30  20   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  58  84  62 /  40  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  82  60  85  61 /  60  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     82  64  85  65 /  70  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  56  84  61 /  30  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  55  81  56 /  50  20   0  10
NEWPORT AR        80  60  83  59 /  70  30   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     83  62  84  63 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  56  84  60 /  30  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         81  60  83  59 /  70  20   0  10
STUTTGART AR      81  63  84  62 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64



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