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114
FXUS64 KLZK 231132 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected, with some ceilings
mainly in northern and eastern AR. Monday morning, patchy areas of
MVFR fog conditions may form, but after sunrise Monday, any fog
areas will dissipate within 1 to 2 hours. Winds will be northwest to
west at 5 to 10 this morning, then become elevated through the day
and reach 10 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 25 mph. Possibly a
bit higher over northwest AR. A cold front will push into AR Monday
evening and overnight and bring a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph
with some gusts to near 25 to 30 mph at times. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are cooler temperatures,
elevated winds ahead of and behind the cold front, while an
overall dry forecast. A lake wind advisory will be possible
during the first through third periods for parts of AR. Wildfire
danger will be lower, but with the elevated winds, fuels will
again dry out, while surface relative humidities will be lower
with the dry airmass.

Currently the upper low pressure center continues to spin over
northeast AR, while rotating clouds and some light rain or
sprinkles over northern AR. Radar trends show the light rain or
sprinkles over northern AR. The cooler and dry air mass was
filtering in over AR, with dewpoint temperatures in the 40s to
lower 50s, while temperatures in a similar range. May see some
patchy fog this morning, especially in those areas that had rain
on Sunday. Winds were northwest to west at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Today, morning clouds will hold over northern and eastern areas of
AR, and with some sprinkles over parts of northern AR. The clouds
have thinned over central and southern AR already, but will take
more of the day to thin and gradually move east over the north to
east. Winds will become elevated today, especially over northern
AR, and a lake wind advisory will be issued for northern AR.
Cooler highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s in the cloudy
areas, while lower to mid 70s in sunny areas. This evening and
tonight, a dry cold front will push into AR from the northwest, and
spread elevated winds to all of AR. A lake wind advisory will
probably have to be extended for northern and parts of the rest of
AR later tonight to Tuesday due to the pressure gradient behind the
cold front. Breezy to at times windy conditions will be seen on
Tuesday as the cold air mass filters into AR. Highs on Tuesday will
only reach the 50s over the northern, the 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Temps will start off well below normal...with lows on Wed morning in
the 30s and 40s for most of the area. SFC high pressure will drop
south of the state...moving to the east over the SERN CONUS by Thu.
This will result in SRLY flow returning to the state for Thu...with
temps warming back to near normal for Thu. However...this warmer
trend will be short lived as a new shortwave deepens the main upper
trough over the central CONUS into the Great Lakes Region for Fri. A
new cold front will move into the state on Fri. Some slight chance
to low end chance POPs are forecast with this front...mainly due to
moisture levels are starting to decrease ahead of this front.

Behind the front...Arctic high pressure will settle across the
region for the weekend. Some of the coldest air of the season so far
should settle across Arkansas...with some widespread freezing
conditions looking possible for several areas. However...how cold it
will eventually get is still a bit uncertain this far out...so will
have to continue to monitor the trends in the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  47  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         76  49  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       72  44  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    75  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  48  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     74  49  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      74  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  44  60  38 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        74  47  63  38 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  48  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   74  45  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         74  46  65  38 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      74  47  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening FOR Baxter-Boone-Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62