Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031536 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
HIGHER RES MODELS AND GFS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...WHILE EURO AND NAM HAVE NONE. ON WEDNESDAY...HAD
SIGNIFICANT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP AND CREATED ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HEAVY IN SPOTS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT IN MORE OVER
THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE A DETERMENT. ALSO...FORECAST INSTABILITY
FOR THE AFTERNOON IS NOT GREAT...WITH CAPE VALUES OVERALL LESS THAN
1000 J/KG AND LI -1 TO -5. ALSO LITTLE TO NO SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
SEEN IN THE MODELS. WILL DECIDE WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE TO ADD OR
NOT ADD ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LEANING TOWARD ADDING SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER WEIGHING FACTORS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP WITH DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS AROUND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE.

SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP RAINFALL OUT OF THE STATE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS LABOR DAY. BY
WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD GET THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  70  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       90  68  89  69 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     95  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  69  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        93  70  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     94  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  71  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         94  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



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