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249
FXUS64 KLZK 270910
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
410 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Isolated to scattered showers will continue across northern
Arkansas through daybreak and possibly into the mid morning hours
as shortwave energy rotates through the area. This shortwave will
reinforce the drier air we have in place across the region as high
pressure over the central plains and upper midwest attempts to
build into Arkansas from the north. This will also hold
temperatures down below normal once again today, which is just
fine by this forecaster.

Tonight and into Wednesday morning upper ridging to the west of
the state will shift east over Arkansas. The ridge will lose some
aplitude as it does so, but the combination of the ridge aloft and
the return flow pattern at the surface will push temperatures back
up to near normal values. Highs in the mid 80s to around 90 will
return, along with notably higher dewpoints and humidity values.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

General ridging will be noted across much of the southern United
States, with a gap in the ridge /weak low pressure/ along the
central Gulf Coast. Nearly zonal flow will exist north of the ridge
across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley as well as
northern Arkansas. Toward the end of the period, it appears a trough
will develop in the east-west flow, and will drive a cold front
toward the region.

Given the scenario, isolated diurnally driven /heat of the day/
thunderstorms are expected Thursday in southern sections of the
state near the weak low. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms
will follow by the weekend, especially across the north as the
aforementioned front nears.

There may be locally heavy rain /1 to 2 inch plus amounts/ across
the north, especially if an MCS or two is involved. There is a
potential of some severe weather, although amount of instability
is uncertain at this time.

As far as temperatures, readings will be a little below seasonal
during the daytime and warmer than average at night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  65  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
Camden AR         89  68  91  72 /  10   0  10  10
Harrison AR       81  64  86  69 /  10   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    87  68  89  72 /  10   0  10  10
Little Rock   AR  86  67  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
Monticello AR     87  68  89  71 /  10   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      87  67  88  71 /  10   0  10  10
Mountain Home AR  82  64  88  71 /  10   0  10  10
Newport AR        83  65  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     86  67  89  72 /  10   0  10  10
Russellville AR   87  67  90  72 /  10   0  10  10
Searcy AR         84  65  89  71 /  10   0  10  10
Stuttgart AR      85  68  89  72 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...46