Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AFTER
22/09Z...BUT KEPT SCT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT/S BEEN SAID MANY TIMES...AND MANY WAYS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.
THOUGH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER/STORM HERE OR
THERE... NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
FORCING MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS
/WELL...OKAY...TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THIS TIME OF YEAR/.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD COME CLOSE TO OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105...AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...IF NOT BY SUNDAY THAN LIKELY
MONDAY...AS MORE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THANKS
TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE STILL ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR MANY PLACES ON MONDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL DEWPOINTS MIX OUT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB
ABOVE 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
INDEED BE KNOCKED DOWN A BIT COME MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. HOW MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THAT WILL LEAD TO BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS
MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO QUICK WITH PATTERN CHANGES THAT FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUMMER. THAT SAID...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR TUE AND WED
AFTERNOONS IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES VERSUS MONDAY...WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.

AS STATED THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST/SOUTH THE TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES WILL MAKE IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WED
NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DURING
THAT TIME AND A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS IS TOO QUICK...SETTLED WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S ON THU AND CARRIED OVER SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY THU. WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF
CONSISTENTLY COOLER/WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

NEVERTHELESS...PERHAPS THIS HEAT WILL NOT BE AROUND FOR TOO TERRIBLY
LONG AFTER ALL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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