Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281514 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued a morning update, mainly to lower rain chances across the
board through the day. Radar shows some spotty precipitation
across central parts of the state this morning, but the atmosphere
should remain sufficiently capped to inhibit most if not all
convection through the daytime hours. There is however, decent
isentropic ascent going on across the state as a warm front is
slated to move north through Arkansas today. This will likely
continue to produce some isolated pockets of rain/showers like
what is occurring on radar now. The main focus for this light
precip will be central to northern/northeastern parts of Arkansas
through this afternoon, with perhaps some more widespread chances
for light rain later in the day.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 )

AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions will start the forecast, with some
patchy MVFR conditions. Light convection will be possible over
northern Taf sites and used VCSH. A warm front is expected to
gradually lift northward today, and help develop additional showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe storms will be seen
later in the afternoon to evening. Winds will be east to southeast
at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph. A low level jet has
set up and low level wind shear will be see at all Taf sites mainly
this morning. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 421 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of strong to
severe storms later today and again on Saturday. Other major
concern is the amount of rainfall the northern half of AR will
receive and the flash flooding to river flooding potential. Flash
flood watch remains in effect from tonight through Sunday night.

Currently light convection is moving across northwest AR, as some
upper shortwave energy moves over the area. Over AR, temperatures
and dewpoint temperatures were both mostly in the 50s. The surface
high pressure was off to the east, and a south wind flow was
bringing more moisture back to AR. A warm front was over LA and is
expected to lift northward today. To the north, a cold front was
over KS and northern MO. Plenty of upper level moisture was
streaming into the region from the west and bringing clouds to the
area. 00Z KLZK sounding had a precip water value of less than an
inch, but this will be going up dramatically going into the
weekend.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Today the location of the warm front as it lifts north, and the
cold front as it sags south will define the location of the
strongest convection and then eventually the area of heaviest
rain. Morning convection will be light and be mainly over northern
AR. Through today, the warm front is expected to lift northward,
and as upper shortwave energy moves across the region, additional
showers and thunderstorms are forecast, again especially over
northern AR. Models have the strongest storms over northwest AR
with a movement to the northeast. Also as the day goes, moisture
levels will increase with a south wind. Temperatures will be in
the lower 70s north, to the 80s south and breezy winds will be
seen in the afternoon. Tonight, additional upper shortwave energy
will move over the area that the cold and warm front come
together. This is where the strongest convection and heaviest rain
will be focused. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats, with a lower risk of tornadoes with any severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has northern AR in a Enhanced Risk,
while much of AR will have a Slight Risk. The threat of heavy rain
will also begin to be seen tonight and over the weekend, with
repeated upper level shortwave energy and increasing moisture
levels over the region. A flash flood watch remains in effect from
tonight through Sunday. On Saturday, additional possible severe
storms will be seen, mainly in the afternoon to evening, and into
the early overnight as upper lift moves into AR. The on going
heavy rain over the north will lead to some flash flooding to some
river flooding.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

An area of low pressure will be over the Plains to begin the long
term period with southwest flow over Arkansas. This low will move
through Kansas Sunday morning and then into Iowa Monday morning
and through the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Northwest
flow returns to Arkansas Monday night and then becomes zonal
Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper trough in the Plains
Wednesday will move through Arkansas Wednesday night and Thursday.
Northerly flow will be over Arkansas Thursday and Friday as the
trough moves to the east coast.

The cold front will be moving through central and eastern Arkansas
Sunday morning. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
morning over eastern Arkansas. Expect the front to exit east
Arkansas by mid day Sunday. As a result rain chances will decrease
by afternoon. The low pressure system will continue to strengthen as
it moves away from Arkansas and expect gusty winds Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning. High pressure builds in at the surface
Monday night and Tuesday. A warm front develops over south Arkansas
Tuesday and shower and thunderstorm chances will increase north of
the front. Rain chances will continue through Thursday morning.
Mainly below normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-
Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-
Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-
Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

64



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