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000
FXUS64 KLZK 091746
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH NEAR A NEARLY WASHED OUT COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS THEN
EXPECTED BY MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERED LOW CUMULUS DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION OVER SW AR IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DROP SE AND LESSEN
OVER THE AREA. DID EXTENDED SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY FLASH FLOOD WARNING
DUE TO ON GOING FLOODING AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPPER OFF THROUGH NOON AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
WARNING UNLESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE COLD
FRONT HAS DRIFTED TO SOUTH AR...WITH A BIT DRIER AIR MASS AND NW TO
NE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. THE
UPPER NW FLOW WILL DRIFT THE FRONT NEAR THE AR AND LA STATE LINE
TODAY. LITTLE UPSTREAM ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE UPPER FLOW...SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE DAY OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE STILL A
CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN AR. WILL HAVE TO TRIM TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THOSE
AREAS WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS...WHILE UPPER 80S TO SOME AROUND 90
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE. LATE MORNING
UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE MINOR CHANGES. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

AVIATION...09/12Z TAF CYCLE

LINGERING SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WL CONT TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACRS MAINLY
SRN AR THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS. THOSE FCST SITES AFFECTED BY
THE ACTIVITY WL SEE MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY ACRS SRN AR WHERE A FNTL BNDRY WL BE
SITUATED...MAINLY AFFECTING KLLQ. FURTHER TO THE N...CLEARING
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM THIS MRNG...MAINLY
ARND KBPK WHERE LIFR CONDS WL CONT FOR A FEW HRS...FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDS. EXPECT PTCHY BR TO FORM LATER TNGT OVR MOST AREAS
WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WITH HEAVY RAIN CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. RADAR
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 2-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN
POLK COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST SCOTT COUNTY SINCE 8 PM LAST NIGHT. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION THERE AND CONTINUE/RE-ISSUE ANY FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS AS NECESSARY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY SHIFT TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE...THOUGH SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS DWINDLING AS IT DOES SO. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE/PASSAGE OF A FRONT...NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR
SO CONTINUED HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY...BUT A NOTABLE WARMING TREND
WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THEY ARE ALSO FORECASTING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 70 DEGREES...AND THERE WILL HAVE BEEN
PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN THE DAYS PRIOR. AS SUCH LIMITED HIGHS TO
AROUND 96 ON THE WARM SIDE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THAT
SAID...IT WILL FEEL QUITE OPPRESSIVE OUTSIDE FRI AND SAT
AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO INDC THAT THE UPR RDG WL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT BACK WWD DURG THE PD...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW FNTL
BNDRY TO APCH FM THE NW TOWARD THE END OF THE PD. THE LATEST ECMWF
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE FROPA...TAKING IT SWD THRU MUCH OF AR BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOES NOT EVEN BRING
THE FNTL BNDRY CLOSE TO NRN AR UNTIL TUE NGT. FOR NOW...STAYED
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION TO RETAIN BETTER FCST CONTINUITY.

IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT...EXPECT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL HIGHS SUN
AND MON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOWER TO MID 90S. AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE FCST TO RMN BLW ADVY CRITERIA...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. READINGS WL TREND A BIT LOWER ACRS NRN AR ON TUE DUE TO
INCRSD CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  89  69  91 /  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         72  92  72  95 /  30  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  86  69  90 /  10  40  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  90  72  94 /  30  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  72  94 /  20  40  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  72  94 /  30  40  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      71  90  71  94 /  30  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  68  90 /  10  30  10  20
NEWPORT AR        68  89  69  92 /  10  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  91  71  94 /  30  40  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  71  93 /  20  40  10  20
SEARCY AR         69  89  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      72  90  71  94 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51