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000
FXUS64 KLZK 181937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. MINOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS...WILL BE SEEN.

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BUT MORNING STRATUS HAS HELD IN SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION
OVER AR. POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
CLOUDS THINNING SOUTH OF IT...WHILE NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT MAY
TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER NE TO E AR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO CLOUDS AND INVERSION.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH 12Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES WHILE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY AND IS
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/OK/KS/MO STATE LINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FIRST PERIOD DUE TO
CAP AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ANY DEVELOP LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. ON SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY DAY. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA DAY...BUT INDICATE TREND
OVER NW AR. SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN AR...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES A BIT MORE EAST. POP TREND FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE OVER NW AR
INDICATED IN FORECAST. ON MONDAY...AGAIN MUCH OF THE UPPER LIFT
REMAINS OVER WEST TO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST HAS THIS
INDICATED. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE EAST AND ROTATE MUCH STRONG UPPER LIFT INTO AR. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AR WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NW AREAS...TUESDAY OVER WEST TO CENTRAL...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL OF THE STATE...THEN FINALLY
PUSHING EAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE STORM THREATS
WILL MATERIALIZE AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND STALL
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  88  69  85 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  89  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       68  87  67  83 /  10  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  87  70  86 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  89  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        70  89  71  85 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  88  70  86 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  89  69  85 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  88  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61 / LONG TERM...51