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000
FXUS64 KLZK 101625
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AND UPDATES WILL BE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP
THE WORDING...TWEAK THE SKY GRIDS AND BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NEARLY FULL INSOLATION WILL
HELP WITH THE MELTING PROCESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR
LEVELS IF NOT THERE ALREADY. ONCE REMAINING VFR/MVFR DECKS
DISSIPATE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS LOW...WITH WINDS IN
THE NORTH BACKING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH 4-5KT AT NORTHERN
SITES DUE TO ELEVATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH AND A SHOT OF COLD
AIR.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE EAST...AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ENTER THE FORECAST.

IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED...AS PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN AS WARMING OCCURS.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND
WILL END TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DROPPED LOW ENOUGH IN THE NORTH TO SUPPORT
ZOME FREEZING RAIN OR MAYBE A LITTLE SLEET...BUT THIS IS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AND IN ANY CASE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
SO DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS SHOULD WINTRY
PRECIP FALL. ELSEWHERE ONLY RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. RESTULTING
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MEAN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
MOSTLY...THOUGH SOME UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S UP NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING BY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE
CLOUDS ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  20  40  18 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         43  21  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       36  22  37  15 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  22  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  24  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     43  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      41  17  43  20 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  21  37  15 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  24  40  19 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     42  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  19  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         39  17  41  18 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      40  25  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56