Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 300843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period severe storm
threat and flash flooding and river flooding. Several severe
storms were seen Saturday evening and into the overnight, as well
as storm complexes with very heavy rain causing flooding. The
current storms are gradually moving east-northeast, and mainly
producing heavy rain and flash flooding. An isolated severe storm
still may be seen in the next few hours, but trends are showing a
lowering threat of severe storms. The surface cold front was over
western AR, while aloft the main core of lift is pushing across
AR. The upper low pressure system was over western OK and will
gradually move east on Sunday, with a much lower chance of light
convection on Sunday. Winds were still south to southeast ahead of
the cold front, with warm temperatures in the 60s and some 70s.
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
The first period will continue a high chance of showers and
thunderstorms, with heavy rain possible with the stronger storms.
Flooding will be on-going and the flash flood watch will continue
to Sunday evening. Winds will gradually become elevated ahead and
behind the cold front, and a lake wind advisory will be in effect
for much of eastern AR. The lake wind advisory may need to be
extended into Sunday night if winds remain elevated. The upper
low pressure will gradually move from OK to the upper mid- west,
and lighter showers will be seen over northern areas even late on
Sunday. Temperatures will start mild, then only rise a bit before
cooler and drier air filters into AR later Sunday night and on
Monday. Dry and breezy weather conditions on Monday as surface
high pressure builds into the southern Plain. Temperatures Monday
morning will be in the 40s to 50s, while highs in the 60s to 70s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Northwest flow will be over a good portion of the country as an
upper low moves through the Great Lakes. Zonal flow returns to
Arkansas Tuesday night as a ridge builds over the west coast. An
upper trough develops in the Plains Wednesday and moves across
Arkansas Thursday, forms a closed low and moves eastward Friday
and reaches the east coast by late Saturday.
A warm front will stall over Arkansas for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances will increase as moisture builds back into the area.
Expect small chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
better chances on Wednesday. Low pressure moving across the area
will drag a cold front through the state late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Drier air behind the front will limit rain chances for
Friday and Saturday. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday
but the rest of the long term temperatures will be below normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 71 46 70 51 / 90 10 0 0
Camden AR 69 47 76 53 / 50 10 0 0
Harrison AR 65 42 67 49 / 50 10 10 0
Hot Springs AR 67 46 74 52 / 40 10 0 0
Little Rock AR 70 48 73 53 / 70 10 0 0
Monticello AR 71 51 76 54 / 90 10 0 0
Mount Ida AR 65 45 73 51 / 30 10 0 0
Mountain Home AR 69 44 68 49 / 60 10 10 0
Newport AR 72 49 70 51 / 90 10 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 70 49 74 54 / 80 10 0 0
Russellville AR 68 45 72 51 / 50 10 0 0
Searcy AR 71 47 72 50 / 80 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 71 50 73 54 / 90 10 0 0
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Short Term...59 / Long Term...51