Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 310548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN OVER ARKANSAS.
HEAVIEST RAIN IS IN THE WEST. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER BATCH
OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. INCLUDED
THUNDER IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS FALLING THIS EVENING. THERE WERE SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS
DURING THE DAY TODAY /HARRISON RECEIVED ALMOST 2 INCHES/ BUT HAS
SLACKED OFF SOME TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL PICK UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IS PRUDENT. DID DECREASE
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS MCV DIVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO BE
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AR...AND BRING VFR CEILINGS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN AND SHOWER
AREAS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE BECOME MORE EAST. THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

RAIN WAS INCREASING OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING
WITH A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ONE TO
TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY OVER THREE
INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY...AREAS OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN...BUT INTENSITIES WILL DECREASE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE.

GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF
THE 60S IN PLACES...WITH 70S COMMON IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR THE MONTH POSSIBLY
BROKEN.

OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WE WILL
START DRYING OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START
WARMING UP...BUT READINGS WILL STAY SUBPAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL
BE LIFTING NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE OF A WEAK NORTH FLOW
OVER THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND FROM THE
WEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL PERSIST AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...BUT
SOME GRADUAL WARMING WILL BE SEEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND OVER AR. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH MOST INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS
TIMEFRAME...ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLING TEMPS POSSIBLE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  62  83  65 /  70  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         76  63  83  65 /  70  40  30  10
HARRISON AR       74  60  82  62 /  50  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  62  83  65 /  90  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  62  83  66 /  90  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  64  83  67 /  70  50  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  61  82  63 /  90  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  61  82  63 /  60  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        75  62  83  65 /  70  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  63  83  66 /  80  40  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  61  83  65 /  80  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         76  62  83  65 /  90  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      76  63  83  66 /  90  30  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GARLAND-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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