Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$





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