Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 182036
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017
Short Term...Today through Friday.
A very complex pattern is expected over the next several days with
both a very progressive upper pattern and a persistent frontal
boundary to contend with. The short term models are actually in
remarkably good agreement through the period when one considers all
that is going on. As such, a middle of the road approach will be
taken with a slight lean towards the more consistent GFS.
Latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary stretched out and
stalled out from central Mississippi to the Texas gulf coast. Weak
low pressure on the boundary kicked off precipitation earlier today
with only scattered showers left behind but more is on the way.
Water vapor imagery reveals another strong trough approaching the
Pacific northwest but also an upper low over the central plains. The
central plains low will move northeast with time, weakening and
morphing into an open wave as it does. The result will be to pull
the stalled out boundary to the north as a warm front. Meanwhile,
another area of low pressure will develop on it with rain chances
increasing tonight, especially over the southeast.
Low will move off to the northeast by late Thursday dragging the
associated and weakening cold front through the state. This will be
followed by dry conditions for Friday with more unsettled weather
lurking as we head into the extended period.
Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the period
with widespread 50s and a few lower to mid 60s for Thursday. Very
mild conditions are expected on Friday with widespread 60s and even
a few lower 70s for good measure across the south. MAV/MEX numbers
look good and are generally accepted.
.Long Term...Friday night through Wednesday
The long term period has a decent amount of uncertainty. The overall
pattern early on is roughly agreed upon in the models, with notable
differences in the details. However model solutions diverge greatly
early Monday morning onward.
In general broad upper troughing will be in place across the western
United States Friday night with a couple of shortwave troughs
lifting northeast from the central plains, and another heading our
direction across the desert southwest. The latter will intensify in
to a strong cutoff low that will traverse the northern parts of the
Gulf Coast states late Saturday through Monday morning. Friday night
and early Saturday morning may indeed be dry across much of the
state but the aforementioned southern stream shortwave will spread
rainfall back into, at least, the southern parts of the forecast
area after daybreak Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will follow Saturday evening through Sunday morning as the center of
the developing upper low moves over the Arklatex region, with
lingering showers lasting into Sunday night as the system departs.
Beyond Sunday night, the forecast becomes uncertain. Some guidance
keeps a zonal pattern over the southern half of the United States
with several ripples in the to keep rain chances going, while others
develop a high amplitude upper pattern with high pressure and
dry/sunny conditions in Arkansas. Given the uncertainty, kept the
forecast dry from Monday morning onward for now as any timing
changes in the wetter guidance would mean significant changes in
when to go with wet/dry conditions. Also played temperatures middle
of the road as well.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 46 56 47 65 / 70 60 20 10
Camden AR 52 62 50 71 / 80 50 10 10
Harrison AR 43 56 44 63 / 40 30 10 10
Hot Springs AR 48 60 48 67 / 70 40 10 10
Little Rock AR 49 59 49 68 / 80 60 10 10
Monticello AR 55 65 52 71 / 80 80 10 10
Mount Ida AR 46 60 48 67 / 60 30 10 10
Mountain Home AR 43 55 45 63 / 50 40 10 10
Newport AR 47 57 48 65 / 80 70 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 51 61 50 70 / 80 70 10 10
Russellville AR 46 59 46 67 / 60 40 10 10
Searcy AR 48 58 47 66 / 80 70 20 10
Stuttgart AR 51 61 50 68 / 80 70 20 10
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64