Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 051857
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  79  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  81  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       44  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  80  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  80  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  81  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      49  78  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56


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