Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250032
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
732 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated convective cells have dissipated across southeast
Arkansas. Additional development is not expected overnight.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016)

AVIATION...
Data from local radars indicate only isolated cells remaining in
southeast Arkansas, which are expected to dissipate by 00z. Best
chances for TSRA to affect sites appears after the valid forecast
period. A light and variable surface flow will prevail after 12z.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 233 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in the forecast cycle are chances of convection
today through Monday associated with a cold front, then a
temperature forecast, especially the cooler values behind the
front.

Morning fog did dissipate quickly after sunrise, and mostly sunny
skies with warm temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s are
currently being seen. Afternoon CU field has again set up over AR
and a few light showers or isolated thunder may be seen rest of
afternoon to early evening, before dissipating after sunset. The
upper and surface high pressure ridges has moved a bit more east
and a gradually south surface flow was increasing overall moisture
over AR. Surface dew point temperatures were from the lower 70s to
mid to upper 60s over the central and north. Winds are light and
variable or southeast to southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Forecast will start with a low chance of any late afternoon to
evening shower or thunderstorm, mainly over southern and western
AR. After sunset, any light convection is expected to weaken and
dissipate. Tonight, the cold front and weather system over the
Plains will make slow progress toward AR, and some chance of
convection will be possible late over northwest AR. South winds
ahead of the system over AR will limit any fog formation overnight
but did include patchy. Lows will be from the mid and upper 60s
north, to the lower 70s south. Sunday will see the front and
system continue to slowly move east, and convection in the morning
should again be limited to northwest AR. Sunday to Monday, the
front slowly moves east into the through AR, with some showers and
isolated thunderstorms ahead and along the front. Model solutions
continue to show a very low and isolated threat for any strong to
severe storms. Main dynamics lift northeast, as well as being
stretched out over AR, instability is marginal and moisture levels
remain limited ahead of the boundary. Therefore, mainly showers
with isolated thunderstorms are expected. Monday night, the front
will gradually move southeast and usher in much cooler air over
AR, as well as dry weather conditions. Highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s to 80s, while lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday

A strong low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes to begin
the period with a large upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper low
moves into the northeast U.S. by Wednesday and off the east coast by
Friday. High pressure aloft builds over the Plains late Tuesday into
Wednesday. High pressure will be over Arkansas Thursday through
Saturday.

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will come to an end
Monday evening in the south part of the state. As the cold front
exits southeast Arkansas Monday, much cooler air will filter into the
state. Expect near to below normal temperatures for Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be in the 70s across the state. A slow warm up is then
expected for the rest of the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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