Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 300758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  45  56  31 /  10  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  68  34 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  43  52  28 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  33 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  47  64  34 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  48  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  45  63  31 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  53  29 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  45  56  32 /  10  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  46  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  46  60  31 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  46  60  32 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  46  63  34 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62





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