Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Light showers continue to move southeast across northeast,
central, and southeast Arkansas this afternoon. These showers are
the result of upper low pressure over southern Missouri poised to
move across northeast Arkansas. Thunder will be isolated at
best...and the showers should dissipate around sunset. Skies will
clear overnight. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected.




VFR conds wl prevail thru most of the PD, Upr low ovr NRN MO this
mrng wl cont to drop to the SE today and early tngt. Cyclonic
flow arnd the system wl bring moisture/clouds to much of the area
today. Do expect to see some MVFR cigs at times, mainly this mrng
ovr NRN AR. Diurnally driven showers/few storms could also form
over parts of the area heading into this aftn. /44/


Short Term...Today through Thursday Night

An area of rain/embedded TSRA was confined to SERN AR early this
mrng. Activity was assocd with an upper lvl impulse rotating arnd a
closed upr low centered along the IA/MO border. Early mrng temps
were mainly in the 50s. Current radar/Hi-Res model trends indc that
most of the ongoing rainfall should push E of the FA arnd daybreak
and have adjusted POPS accordingly.

The aforementioned upr low is fcst to cont dropping to the SSE
today, eventually passing acrs NERN AR by early this evening before
turning to the E tonight. Colder air aloft, assocd with the upr low,
wl interact with daytime heating to set off SCTD showers/few storms
this aftn. Most of the activity wl be confined to the NE half of the
state, and wl primarily be diurnal in nature.

Clouds wl gradually decrease tngt as the upr system shifts EWD and
high pres briefly blds into the region. The progressive upr flow wl
allow for a new storm sys into the western Plains States later Thu/
Thu night, with south winds returning to AR. Another round of
unsettled wx wl return late this week.

Long Term...Friday through Tuesday

Flow aloft will be transitioning to nearly zonal to slightly SW over
the region at the start of the long term period...with low level
moisture levels starting to increase across AR. A new cold front
will be moving SE across the Plains on Sat as an upper level
shortwave trough axis associated with the upper closed low over SRN
Canada also surges south. With increasing temps and moisture levels
ahead of this front and trough axis...will see POPs increase from
slight chance on chance POPs on Sat as the front moves

Sat night into Sun will be the time for best POPs...with likely POPs
forecast as the cold front drops south into the state. Depending on
when this front arrives...some strong to SVR storms may be seen late
Sat afternoon into the early morning hrs on Sun. However...better
chances for seeing SVR Wx will be during the daylight hrs on Sat
afternoon/early evening if storms will fire this far south of the
front...or if the front speeds up and moves into NRN AR when the
instability will be higher. Otherwise...with the front moving into
the state during the overnight and morning hrs on Sun...chances for
seeing SVR Wx will be less likely...but still possible.

Chance for SHRA/TSRA will decrease by Sun night as drier...more
stable air moves into the state. This drier period will continue
through the rest of the long term period...though potential for
SHRA/TSRA look to return just beyond this forecast.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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