Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 301602 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1000 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016
Overall forecast on track. Clouds were gradually thinning from west
to east as the upper low pressure trough moves through the region.
Most areas will become mostly sunny, with only lingering clouds in
far eastern AR into the afternoon. The cooler and drier air is
filtering into AR, with current upper 30s to lower 40s over the
north, 40s central to around 50 in the south. A drier airmass was
also filtering over AR, and helping break up the clouds. The cooler
airmass will also keep highs today cooler than normal with the upper
40s to 50s expected. Late morning forecast update will only fine
tune clouds, high temperatures and winds. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 512 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/
Previously mentioned cold front will be east of the
state shortly after sunrise. SKC conditions will prevail during this
period. A WSWly surface wind of 9-14kts will prevail from 15-23z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 348 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
09z subjective surface analysis indicated the cold front extended
from Blythville, to Hot Springs, to El Dorado. As the front
continues eastward. drier conditions will continue filter through
the state through the rest of the early morning hours.
Surface hIgh pressure will become centered across the Arkansas and
Louisana border by Thursday morning. Seasonal temperatures are
expected during this period.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The pd wl start off dry with sfc high pres shifting E of the FA.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, unsettled conds wl return to the
region. An upper lvl trof is fcst to drop into the SWRN U.S. and
eventually bcm cutoff ovr NRN Mexico. The resulting SWLY flow aloft
wl bring a series of upr lvl impulses acrs the Mid-South. These
features wl interact with incrsg low lvl moisture to produce periods
of rain starting on Sat and contg thru much of Sun. Low lvl temps
profiles fm 30/00z are a ltl warmer ovr NRN AR, so have removed the
mention of any wintry mix.
There rmn some timing differences between the various model
solutions regarding the aforementioned upr low lifting NEWD into the
SRN Plains late in the weekend. The ECMWF is the fastest, with the
GFS the slowest and the GEM in between. Opted to stay the course and
trend toward the GFS/GEM solutions with a dcrs in rain chcs late Sun
into Mon, as the assocd SFC low tracks further SE of the FA compared
to the ECMWF.
For the remainder of Mon and Tue, the GFS and ECMWF go their
separate ways. The Euro builds sfc high pres into the region while
the GFS dvlps a new storm sys and tracks it to our S, along the Gulf
Coast, with another round of rain for much of the FA. Opted to keep
POPS in later Mon into Tue, closer to the GFS solution for
consistency. Temps wl generally rmn a bit below seasonal norms for
much of the PD.