Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191231 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
731 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

The patchy dense fog this morning should dissipate over the next
couple hrs. VFR conditions should then be seen through the day
into this evening. Some very isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible
this afternoon...but coverage should be less than seen on Mon.
Some patchy fog may again be seen by the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017...by
National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday

Areas of fog have developed early this morning across portions of
the stage. Visibilities have been as low as 1/4 mile, but have
not been consistently low for most of the area. Will continue to
monitor visibility trends this morning for the potential Dense Fog
Advisory. However, will be holding off on this headline for now.

An upper-level ridge will be the primary synoptic feature
affecting the weather across AR through much of the next 7 days.
The shortwave trough that triggered some diurnal convection across
the Mississippi Delta region on Monday will continue to move off
to the east today. In it`s wake, an upper-level shortwave ridge
will build north from the Arklatex region into the Great Lakes.
This ridge will be sharpened by a longwave trough digging over
the western CONUS, resulting in a relatively amplified synoptic
patter compared to what we`ve experienced lately.

The result will be continued above normal temperatures and the
potential for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms the next
few days. Slight chance PoPs were maintained for much of the area
south of I-40 the next several days where dewpoints will remain in
the lower 70s. Expect afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s in
the higher elevations to the lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows
will generally be in the lower 70s, although some areas in the
higher terrain will likely fall into the 60s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Monday

The western CONUS trough remains a quasi-permanent feature into
early next week, with the synoptic pattern progged to become much
more amplified by the weekend as the upper-level ridge builds
north across the Ohio Valley. The global models are in good
agreement developing a blocking high over the southern Great Lakes
with a cut-off low rotating south on the eastern periphery of the
anticyclone, eventually turning this feature to the west as it
rounds the ridge. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the
southern half of the state through Saturday but are forecast to
trend upward by the beginning of next week as 1) the
aforementioned cut-off low nears from the east, and 2) the deep
western CONUS trough finally beats the ridge into submission and
begins to shift slowly eastward.

The flow aloft will become a bit more southwesterly by early next
week as the pattern becomes more progressive. Temperatures will
remain above normal through Saturday but look to trend closer to
climo to by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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