Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 131123 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
523 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AT HRO AND BPK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SYSTEM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME BACK WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES REGION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. AS UPPER
TROUGHING SWINGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...IT WILL GIVE
THE SURFACE SYSTEM A PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT
INVOF AND TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH WARM AND HUMID
GULF AIR UP OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
AFTERNOON IN MOST OF...IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AGAIN IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ONSET A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOST
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...TOTALS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT BY EVENING HAVE
ALL POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT AND WIND SHIFT AT
THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
DAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST NE OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE
DRAWN IN SLIGHT POPS ACROSS FAR NE COUNTIES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME BUT
IT APPEARS ATTM ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS TO BE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE RATHER COOL BUT BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A FAIRLY INTENSE WARMUP. PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20TH
PERCENTILE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN THOSE
AREAS. BEYOND THAT...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57


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