Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 021137 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY IS ALMOST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 1130Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...AND HAVE VCSH OR VCTS IN AT ALL
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS TO COVER THIS.
THESE SAME TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE GIST OF THE SHORT TERM IS SOME SCATTERED STORMS
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ONWARD.

WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED FOR THE MOST PART SO
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT DID PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE DOWN NEAR EL DORADO SO IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT...LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...
SO NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...ADDED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64



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