Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






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