Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280537
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST SITES NOW REMAINING DRY. HOWEVER...THE SERN
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RA...SO HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH
SOME DZ WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN BY AROUND SUNRISE
AT ALL BUT THE SERN SITES. THOSE TERMINALS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS
DELAYED A BIT LONGER...LIKELY WAITING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HRS ON
SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS FOR MOST
SITES...WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR EXPECTED. BPK AND HRO COULD
EVEN SEE SOME PL AND SN MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS REGION
OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THE PRECIP CHANCES TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING SUN...ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY THE AFTERNOON
HRS. DO THINK THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES
DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NWRN
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LATEST SFC DATA PLACES CDFNT ACRS SERN AR...WITH A DVLPG SFC LOW
ACRS THE SERN CORNER OF THE STATE. CURRENTLY SEEING ANOTHER BAND OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WORK NEWD ACRS CNTRL AND SERN AR. SOME PTCHY LGT
RAIN WERE ALSO NOTED OVR NWRN AR. TEMPS HAD FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S
AND 40S ACRS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL CONT TO WORK EWD EARLY NGT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE SE OF AR BY EARLY SUN MRNG. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT
TO BRING A FEW MORE IMPULSES NEWD...AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL PDS OF
RAIN AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE SFC BNDRY. WL CONT TO INDC HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE FA THRU MUCH OF TNGT...WITH LESSER
CHCS AS YOU WORK NWWD.

REGARDING ANY WINTRY PRECIP...THE COLDER AIRMASS WL CONT TO DEEPEN
THIS EVENING OVR NRN AND WRN AR. THIS WL ALLOW SOME WET SNOW AND/OR
SLEET TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES...ESP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP
TAPERS OF LATE THIS EVENING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION...
ALTHOUGH SOME GRASSY AREAS MAY SEE A LGT DUSTING.

EXPECT RAINFALL TO LINGER ACRS CNTRL AND SERN AR THRU TNGT AND MUCH
OF SUN AS ANOTHER SFC WV TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY. THE
PRECIP WL SLOLY DIMINISH FM THE NW SUN AFTN AND EVENING THE CDFNT
WORKS FURTHER EWD AWAY FM THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR MON AND TUE...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR OVER
THE STATE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH...AND FALL
THROUGH THE COLD AIR. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING DUE TO THE SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL WAIT FOR
MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. THERE ARE MANY DETAILS
STILL TO BE WORKED OUT...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE NOT SET IN
STONE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  32  42  28 /  90  40  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  39  46  33 /  90  60  60  10
HARRISON AR       44  25  39  26 /  80  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  34  46  30 /  80  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  36  44  31 /  90  50  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     59  40  45  34 / 100  80  70  20
MOUNT IDA AR      53  29  46  28 /  80  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  28  40  27 /  80  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        53  34  42  29 /  90  50  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  38  44  32 / 100  60  50  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  29  45  28 /  80  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         53  33  43  28 /  90  50  20  10
STUTTGART AR      54  37  43  31 / 100  60  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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