Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190847
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
347 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

A fairly quiet day will be seen across the area today...with little
to no chance for precip today. SRLY flow will be seen at the SFC
with weak zonal flow aloft. Cannot completely rule out any isolated
afternoon SHRA/TSRA...but chances are too low to mention in the
forecast. Highs will be above normal...with temps in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. These dry conditions will persist into Wed night as well.

A cold front will be dropping SE towards the state on Thu...with
chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing from the NW on Thu. This front will
drop to around the MO/AR border late Thu afternoon...then stall out
across far NRN AR Thu night. Best chances will remain across the NRN
third of the state...with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA possible.
Further south...chances for precip will be lower...but still
possible. However...coverage will become more limited the further
south in the CWA you go. This stalled front will become the focus
for additional SHRA/TSRA in the long term period...with some
potential for heavy rainfall increasing.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Model data this morning still in good agreement with overall fcst
trends. Looking at a quasi-stationary front oriented generally from
W to E over the N half of the AR on Fri. SHRA/TSRA chances wl be the
highest along and north of the front Fri and Fri ngt, as several upr
impulses track acrs the region. Locally heavy rainfall wl also be
possible for some areas north of the front. Convection to the south
wl be more scattered/diurnally driven.

The main storm system is fcst to track across AR on Sat, with the
potential for some strong/svr storms in the warm sector. Wl hold
onto some rain chances into Sat night, as lingering moisture wraps
around the departing storm system. Drier and cooler airmass wl
advect into AR to close out the weekend, with high pressure
prevailing over the region into early next week.

After starting the period off with above normal temps, much cooler
air wl eventually work into AR to close out the weekend. Airmass wl
begin to modify by Tue as S/SELY winds return to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  65  82  60 /  10   0  40  50
Camden AR         85  65  85  64 /  10   0  20  20
Harrison AR       81  61  76  55 /  10  10  50  60
Hot Springs AR    83  65  84  64 /  10   0  20  20
Little Rock   AR  84  65  85  65 /  10   0  20  30
Monticello AR     84  65  84  65 /  10   0  20  30
Mount Ida AR      82  64  82  62 /  10   0  20  20
Mountain Home AR  83  64  79  55 /  10  10  50  60
Newport AR        83  64  83  60 /  10   0  40  50
Pine Bluff AR     84  65  85  65 /  10   0  20  30
Russellville AR   84  65  83  63 /  10   0  40  40
Searcy AR         83  63  84  62 /  10   0  30  40
Stuttgart AR      84  64  84  65 /  10   0  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...44



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.