Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below. Remainder of
forecast is on track.&&

Patchy MVFR BR and FG expected to develop through the pre-dawn
hours with clear skies and light to calm winds. Following a more
persistence type forecast, included IFR FG at KADF/KPBF, although
obs from previous days increase confidence in bouncy and difficult
to pinpoint vis restrictions. Should denser FG develop at these
terminals, would not be surprised to see them cycle through
multiple flight categories...brief LIFR possible... before FG
dissipates within an hour or two of sunrise. Deep boundary layer
mixing and 5 kft CU on tap for Saturday with light easterly winds
not exceeding 10 kts through the afternoon. SKC and decreasing
wind shortly after sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 840 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017)

Overall forecast on track. Mostly clear skies tonight, with some
patchy fog possible. Winds will be light and variable or light
southeast. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Any early
morning fog Saturday will dissipate after sunset. Winds will become
more east on Saturday at 5 to 10 mph. Cumulus clouds will form in
the afternoon, with an isolated shower possible in the afternoon.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 635 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Some patchy fog will be possible early Saturday morning, with patchy
MVFR conditions. Any fog in the morning will dissipate quickly after
sunrise Saturday. Winds will be light southeast or light and variable
to calm this evening and overnight. Winds on Saturday will be
southeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

Short term...Tonight through Sunday night

Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon
as overall pattern looks to be pretty much locked in through the
short term period. With no major differences noted between the
models this afternoon, a blend of solutions is preferred.

Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place this afternoon,
characterized by an elongated upper ridge over the area with deep
troughing over the western half of the nation. With little change in
this pattern expected on Saturday, another warm and humid day is
expected with little if any convection expected. Temperatures will
continue to run well above normal considering Saturday will be the
first full day of fall.

Western trough forecast to deepen through the period with a weak
upper low approaching the forecast area from southeast on Sunday.
Moisture will increase slightly and with upper low in the vicinity,
a slight chance of diurnally driven convection is in the forecast
for Sunday. With increased cloud cover and chances of precipitation
in the forecast on Sunday, temperatures will be slightly cooler but
only by a degree or two.

Long Term...Monday through Friday...

The start of the long term period can be characterized by continued
above normal temperatures and only isolated chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity. The pattern aloft will see continued ridging
across the south and east with Maria slowly drifting north off the
Atlantic coast. There will be a weak disturbance aloft situated
southeast of the state which will help spark a few showers and
thunderstorms. Out west, continued troughing and active weather will
be seen.

By mid week, changes will be seen across Arkansas as the upper ridge
becomes more compact and moves southward.  At the surface, a front
will make its way through the state on Wednesday with high pressure
building in its wake. Unfortunately, there won`t be a significant
amount of moisture in place and widespread appreciable rain isn`t

In the wake of the front, cooler air will spill into the area,
making it feel more like Fall out there. Other concerns into the
long term period and beyond include potential drought development
and locally increased fire weather concerns. There just doesn`t
appear to be any indication from long term model solutions that
would provide much needed early Fall rains to turn this drying trend



.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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