Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191732 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017


Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...



Some widely scattered SHRA and a few isolated TSRA will remain
possible through this afternoon and early evening hrs for most
terminals. Occasional drop in VIS and lowering CIGS may be seen
with or near this activity. More organized convection will be
possible this evening into the overnight period as convection
across OK moves rapidly east into WRN AR this evening. Then expect
this activity to move east during the early morning hrs Sat. Some
MVFR or lower conditions may be seen during the Sat morning time


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 447 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

We have been stuck between a ridge of high pressure over the
southeast United States, and a front/storminess in the Plains.
That has started to change a bit, with a round of storms across
northern Arkansas overnight. There were a few reports of wind
damage, especially across the northwest counties.

Most of the overnight precipitation dwindled heading toward
dawn. Storms will fire up again from central/southern Plains
into the mid-Mississippi Valley later today/tonight as a
large storm system wobbles this way from the Rockies.
Most severe weather along with heavy/excessive rain will
stay to the north/west of the state.

Around here, isolated to scattered precipitation is in the
forecast through this evening. It will be another warm day,
with above average temperatures expected.

Late tonight/Saturday, the aforementioned Rockies system will
drive rain from the Plains into Arkansas. There could be some
severe weather, but it will likely be localized. Rainfall will
average three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. Flash
Flooding will be spotty as well.

A front will mostly push through the region by the time the
period ends. Cooler/drier air will follow the front, with
temperatures returning to more seasonal levels.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Upper low pressure will be over northern Minnesota to begin the long
term period with the upper ridge over the east coast. This low will
be slow to move east through Monday. The upper trough will move
through Arkansas Sunday night. Another area of low pressure rotates
through the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper ridge over the
west will expand eastward into the Rockies Thursday.

A cold front will be exiting eastern Arkansas on Sunday and rain
chances will be diminishing by afternoon. Another cold front will
approach from the north Tuesday...and rain chances will increase
Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds over the state
Wednesday and will keep just a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the east. High pressure and dry conditions are
expected for Wednesday night and Thursday. Below normal temperatures
are expected through the period. No severe weather is expected in
the extended period at this time.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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