Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192026 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTH/WEST
WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS/SOME FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTH/WEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP IN MOST AREAS TOWARD NOON
ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID SOMEWHAT TRIM BACK THE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BOTH TODAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST MAX...AND TONIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  32  47  30 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  36  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  32  44  32 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  35  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  34  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  37  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  32  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  32  47  32 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  31  48  29 /  20  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  35  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  35  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         44  31  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  35  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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