Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 072318 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
518 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



An arctic cold front will continue to move through the state this
Wed evening...with some MVFR CIGS possible this evening into the
early overnight hrs. Some sites may see some flurries or light
snow...though very dry air near the SFC will limit most precip. Do
think CIGS will increase by Thu morning...which should persist
through the rest of the TAF period.



Short Term...Today through Friday Night...

Radar returns across the region continue to be very light. Yet
reports from TV and social media outlets alike are indeed reporting
snow flurries across portions of northwest Arkansas. High resolution
models have done well in keeping up with the precipitation trends so
far today, and still show most of the precipitation for the rest of
today shifting southward through essentially the western half of the
state through this evening and into the overnight hours. PoP
forecasts reflect this nicely I believe and have not made any
notable changes from the morning update. If anything the 25-30
percent PoPs over the western CWA may be a little too high given
what has actually made it to the ground in NW Arkansas so far today.
Also kept the precip types a rain/snow mix for areas less than or
equal to 35 degrees, with all snow in the forecast for areas 32 or
less. So far it appears wet bulb effects have been enough to bring
snow to the ground despite areas in the mid and upper 30s in Tulsa`s
forecast area in NW Arkansas. However moving more into my CWA temps
are into the upper 30s so suspect the rain/snow mix may be more

Precipitation will clear to the south of Arkansas late tonight,
likely completely ending before daybreak on Thursday. At that point,
the coldest air of the season will begin to filter into the state.
Thursday will see highs in low 30s to low 40s, followed by overnight
lows in the teens to low 20s Thursday night. With some light north
wind still probable through Friday morning, wind chill values will
get into the single digits up north by Fri morning.

Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday Night...

Long term begins with a northwesterly flow aloft, which will not
last for long. Next system is on track to begin impacting the area
late Sunday, as a shortwave develops across the plains and moves
across the area on Monday.

Looks like there is a potential for some winter weather impacts
across portions of the northern counties on Sunday night and again
on Monday night. Since this is still several days away I have opted
not to get overly detailed, but this will bear watching as the event
gets closer.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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