Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 272348 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN
AR THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VISBYS WHERE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. KADF COULD
SEE IFR TO BRIEF LIFR AROUND DAWN. ISOLATED SHRA AND TS WILL
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL AGAIN BE HIT AND MISS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THIS SITUATION HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHRA/TSRA
WILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EVEN WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE REGION FOR THU...WILL STILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH TEMPS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. BY FRI...WILL
PROBABLY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HRS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS
THE STATE...WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...HAVE POSTED
HIGHER POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRI AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THU A FEW DEG.

LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL COME ON SAT AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. HAVE BUMPED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SAT AFTERNOON FOR THE SERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. HAVE
ALSO KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHER POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. POPS WILL THEN DECREASE INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH MISSOURI SUNDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP OUR CWFA DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  71  93 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       70  91  68  88 /  10  10  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  94  73  91 /  10  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     71  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      69  92  72  90 /  10  10  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  93  70  91 /  10  10  20  40
NEWPORT AR        72  94  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     70  95  72  93 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  94  72  91 /  10  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         72  94  71  92 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      72  94  72  92 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...224




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