Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 021813
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z
WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FIRST...SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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