Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 010208 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
808 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE STUBBORN TO RISE IN PLACES SO FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO
AHEAD AND EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

RUSSELLVILLE...CLINTON...AND EVEN BATESVILLE HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RISE THIS EVENING AND ARE STILL SITTING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK AS OF 7 PM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS REPORTS FROM
SOCIAL MEDIA CONFIRM THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING IN
THOSE AREAS...AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME REPORTS THAT I-40 WAS
SLIPPERY IN SPOTS OUT IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE
OBS AT THE BOONEVILLE RAWS AND STATIONS TO THE SOUTH AT MENA AND
MT IDA...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
YELL...LOGAN...AND SCOTT COUNTIES ARE ALSO STILL EXPERIENCING SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FOR THESE REASONS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD A BIT TO PICK UP THESE
LOCATIONS AND SET THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z TO COINCIDE WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO KHRO AND KBPK BEFORE ENDING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
JUST RAIN. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ELSEWHERE
WITH TIME AS MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SNOW IS CHANGING OVER TO SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...AND AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TO KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH SUNRISE.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION...WITH
READINGS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE CLASH OF WARM AIR. TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.
WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SPRING AT ALL. DATA IS
SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. DATA IS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT...WITH MOISTURE BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS...HAVE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING
THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES DROP.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY. READINGS WILL MODIFY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     30  30  43  33 /  30  50  50  40
CAMDEN AR         45  37  50  40 /  20  30  70  70
HARRISON AR       25  25  40  28 /  70  70  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  35  45  37 /  30  50  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  34  44  37 /  20  40  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     46  38  52  41 /  10  20  70  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  32  45  36 /  40  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  26  41  28 /  70  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        31  29  43  34 /  20  50  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     37  36  48  38 /  10  30  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  31  44  36 /  40  60  50  50
SEARCY AR         34  33  44  35 /  20  50  60  60
STUTTGART AR      37  34  45  37 /  20  30  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
NEWTON-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

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