Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 270540
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...27/06Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. A PERSISTENT SLY
BREEZE OVERNIGHT WL LIMIT FOG FORMATION AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR AREA LAKES COULD SEE REDUCED
VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE. SCTD LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACRS PARTS
OF SWRN AR ARND DAYBREAK. GUSTY SLY WINDS WL CONT ON MON...ALONG
WITH LLWS ACRS WRN AR UNTIL MID MRNG. APCHG CDFNT NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NWRN AR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE NOT CHANGED. FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...SLOWLY DISSIPATED THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE
SOUTH...AND WINDS TODAY STARTED LIGHT BUT HAVE BECOME S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS TO THE 80S STATEWIDE TODAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH KLIT AT 88
(SET IN 1992)...KLZK AT 87 (SET IN 1992)...KHOT AT 87 (SET IN
1992)...AND KLLQ AT 88 (SET IN 1939). 12Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE
MOISTURE CONFINED IN THE LOWEST 2-3K FEET LAYER...AND AN INVERSION
TO 5K FEET.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SW...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AND NE
AR. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EARLIER AND STRONGER IN
SPEED ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...AS SLIGHT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFT MOVING INTO NW
AR. MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT REACHING NW AR BY
12Z MONDAY...THEN SAGGING THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY...AND
PUSHING SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER OVERALL
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS LOW WITH DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT AND BEING
STRETCHED OUT WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
OF AR. LI ONLY REACHES -2 TO -3...CAPE 500 TO 1000 J/KG...WHILE JET
DYNAMICS ARE LOW. COOLER AND DRIER THEN FILTERS IN OVER AR FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES TO A BIT BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR. AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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