Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270454 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS NOW...AND WILL BE AT KLLQ BEFORE 27/12Z. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY 28/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE LIMITED WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WHILE SOME POSSIBLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND MOVED EAST TODAY...BRINGING ALL
SUNNY SKIES TO AR. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION HAS ALSO BROUGHT
DRY AND MUCH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A
PRECIP WATER OF 0.33 INCHES WITH THE NW FLOW. PRECIP WATER VALUE
WILL BE LOWER AS MORNING SOUNDING HAD THE STRATUS DECK AROUND 3200
FEET THIS MORNING. RH VALUES HAVE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...HAVE NOT SEE THE LOWER VALUES EXPECTED WITH ONLY
SOME AREAS SEEING RH VALUES INTO THE 30S PERCENT RANGE. TEMPS WERE
WARNING INTO THE 50S WITH SOME 60S IN THE WEST. ALOFT THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE NW UPPER FLOW
INTO AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

OVERALL A DRY FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH MAINLY
EASTERN AR TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS...AND JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST. THE UPPER NW FLOW HOLDS FOR THE REGION UNTIL
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH AR LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...WITH AGAIN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND ONLY A WIND SHIFT WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM...THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MINNESOTA...BRINGING COOL NORTH WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...AND WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS FAR
OUT...ITS STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT PRECIP TYPE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND FINE TUNE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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