Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A cold front will continue across central Arkansas today. This
will provide a focus for thunderstorm development. Low clouds will
continue for an hour or so in the southeast with IFR conditions
this morning. Scattered thunderstorms are expected by this
afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period.



SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
The area of high pressure aloft will continue west of Arkansas
today. However, this high begins moving back to the east tonight.
Then on Tuesday, the high will continue to build over Arkansas.

With the cold front over central Arkansas today, shower and
thunderstorm chances will again be pretty good. Will keep the best
chances over the central and south...just a slight chance in the
north, north of the front. Will then keep scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the area through Tuesday. Not expecting rainfall
Tuesday night as subsidence will be increasing under the high.

Temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 90s...and mid 90s on
Tuesday. Heat indices in some spots will reach 100 to 104 degrees
Monday and Tuesday...not reaching heat advisory criteria.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
Medium range models all continuing to trend towards a pattern change
late next week with temperatures, dare I say it, falling to below
normal levels across a good portion of the state. Of course, until
that does occur, we will have to deal with a couple of very warm

The period initiates with the eastern periphery of the upper level
ridge sitting over the region Wednesday and slowly retrograding to
the west on Thursday. This will keep the heat on across the state
with highs well into the 90s once again with additional heat related
headlines likely. Precipitation chances will be minimal, your basic
diurnally driven convection with the best chances to the east.

The aforementioned ridge will centered over the four corners by the
end of Thursday in a highly more amplified state. This will be the
beginning of a welcomed pattern change with northwest flow aloft
commencing over the area.

This pattern change will allow a front to move into the state
Thursday night or early Friday, as some timing difference remain
between the extended models. Regardless, the front is forecasted to
move through the state bringing cooler and drier air back to the
region for next weekend. The front will bring a good to decent
chance of precipitation as it moves through the area. Timing of the
precipitation is dependent upon the differences in the timing of the
front but the rain will likely be more widespread than your typical
summertime convection.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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