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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240015 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
715 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
AFTER 18Z...BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR PRECIP ONSET. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED ALONG THE MS RVR THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS HAD
ALREADY VEERED TO A S/SELY DIRECTION ACRS ALL BUT NERN PARTS OF THE
FA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 50S OVR SWRN AR...WITH
UPR 30S AND 40S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC RDG WL CONT TO DRIFT EWD TNGT...ALLOWING FOR A CONTD INCRS
IN LOW LVL RH AREAWIDE AS S/SELY WIND FLOW INCRS OVERNIGHT. THIS WL
LEAD TO A TRICKY MIN TEMP FCST TNGT...WITH PARTS OF SWRN AR LIKELY
SEEING STEADY READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE NGT.

RAIN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM THE W THU IN ADVANCE OF A QUICK MOVG
STORM SYS/CDFNT. SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA...ESP THU AFTN AND EVENING. CONTD TO INDC HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NRN HALF OF THE FA...WHERE MAIN UPR LOW/SUPPORT WL TRACK. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS THU AFTN/EVENING OVR CNTRL AND ERN
AR WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WL EXIST AND DAYTIME HEATING WL BE
MAXIMIZED.

RAIN CHCS WL LINGER ACRS MAINLY ERN AR THU EVENING AS CDFNT CONTS TO
SHIFT EWD. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A NEW STORM SYS WL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SUN AND HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE STATE EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DEEP MOISTURE FLOW ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER...UPPER WAVES IN THE FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL PASS OVER AR...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUN NIGHT...THE  MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE MON.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN 80S BY SUN
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A RESULT.
PLENTY OF SHR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE SAME TIME...WITH THE
THREAT FOR SVR WX INCREASING. HOWEVER...BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...DETAILS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE SVR WX DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY TUE AND WED...THE THREAT FOR SVR WX WILL LESSEN...WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL STILL BE WOBBLING OVER SOME PORTION OF THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON WHAT DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD...OR HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS UPPER LOW GETS TO AR...ADDITIONAL PRECIP COULD BE
SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58