Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 222338 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE SO EXPECT TO SEE ONLY MEAGER
AFTERNOON CU TOM MORROW...WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT THE STATE AFTER 20Z. WITH SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW
MORNING THERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A RAGGED AND THIN LAYER OF MVFR
BASES HUGGING THE TERRAIN FROM LITTLE ROCK SOUTHWESTWARD. HAVE
SOME MENTIONED AT KLIT AND KHOT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE CIGS...JUST FEW-SCT BASES. ALSO HAVE TEMPO FOG
AT KADF BETWEEN 11Z-14Z DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OKAY...YOU KNOW THE DRILL. HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM HERE OR THERE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER HUMID...
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH
MONDAY.

WILL...FOR NOW...REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONGER RANGE MODEL DATA STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING
FCST TRENDS NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONT TO INDC A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPR RDG ACRS THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS RMNS
FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION. PREFER TO CONT TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND RMNS CONSISTENT
WITH CURRENT FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDC A FNTL BNDRY MOVG INTO
THE FA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ALSO CONT TO INDC THAT GULF MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCRS
EARLY IN THE PD AS A WEAK EASTERLY WV MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS WL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND SMALL CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR
TUE AND WED...ESP ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE FA. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL WL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  77  98  72 /  20   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         94  72  96  71 /  10   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       94  73  97  69 /  20   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  97  73 /  20   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  76  98  73 /  20   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     94  74  96  72 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      91  75  96  70 /  20   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  74  98  70 /  20   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        97  76  97  72 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     93  73  96  72 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  98  69 /  20   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         97  74  96  72 /  20   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  74  95  73 /  20   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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