Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200529 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some patchy fog will be possible overnight. Some afternoon
isolated convection may also be seen during Sun...but too limited
coverage expected to mention in TAFs at this time. Winds should
remain fairly light at less than 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 848 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017)

UPDATE...

Several convective cells remain across northern portions of the
forecast area, per data from KLZK radar. Additional, isolated
activity is still possible overnight, given high instability
remaining.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Quite warm across much of the state today, with some of the warmest
readings seen in the last few weeks. Dewpoint readings have held in
the 70s across the state, leading to heat indices in the 100 to 109
degree range prompting a heat advisory for about the southern half
of Arkansas.

Can`t rule out some isolated to scattered storms tonight, mainly
across northern parts of the state. Already seeing a few storms
developing locally, across northern Arkansas as well as in
southeastern Kansas, with further development possible this evening
and overnight.

Continued hot weather will be seen on Sunday with a heat advisory
remaining in place for much of central and southern areas. Afternoon
highs will be on par or a tad higher than today as ridging aloft and
at the surface will be seen over and just east of the state.

Close attention was paid to the sky cover forecast on Monday across
the state with the solar eclipse expected to provide quite the
viewing audience. There will be breaks in the clouds, but people
across the state will have to contend with some cloud cover during
the peak of the eclipse.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Thursday

The consensus of model guidance indicates that a strong shortwave
trough will move southeast over the Great Lakes region from Tuesday
afternoon through the overnight hours. This will cause a cold front
to move south across Arkansas Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. A seasonably hot and humid low-level air mass is expected
to be in place out ahead of this front. The cyclonic shear axis of
the shortwave trough will move over the state at the same time...but
will only cause some meager height falls and upper level cold air
advection in concert with the low-level front. Without stronger
upper level support and cooling...do not expected a significant
threat for severe weather at this time. There will be enough low-
level heat and humidity to warrant a localized severe storm threat
but a multicellular to briefly linear storm mode is expected to
represent the limit of modal organization for convection along the
front.

Strong to marginally severe storms are expected as a result with the
primary threats being locally damaging winds and heavy rainfall
which could lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is expected to
remain a localized threat for now as the front is expected to move
steadily south across the state. If the front were to hang up across
the state Tuesday night into Wednesday...a more widespread flooding
threat would be possible. We will monitor the speed of the front in
later forecasts to assess if the threat of flooding is increasing.
No flood or flash flood watches are planned at this time.

The front is expected to stall out across southern Arkansas
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night...so have higher POPs in
place across the southern portion of the state during those times.
Localized flooding will continue to be the primary threat from
storms Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. A
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is expected to send the
front farther south during the day on Thursday...pushing rain
chances down south into Louisiana and Texas by Thursday afternoon.
Highs on Thursday are expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s
with fairly dry air in place as well. It should be a nearly perfect
day to get outdoors if you have any plans!

Friday through Sunday

Nearly perfect weather conditions are expected to continue across
the state on Friday as highs remain in the mid 80s with dry air
holding in place. Moisture will begin to return to the area on
Saturday as a shortwave trough moves over the Central CONUS. Held
off on rain chances for now as confidence in the placement and
strength of a shortwave trough this far out in the forecast is very
low. Temperatures and humidity are expected to remain below normal
for next weekend.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jefferson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-
Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-
White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Aviation...62



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