Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271949
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

Cooler and drier air temperatures are expected to continue
through Tonight due to a shortwave trough that moved through
portions of the state last night and today. Behind the shortwave,
weak upper level flow will return and surface winds will shift
back to a more southerly direction. The pattern change will allow
for warm and moist air to return to the Natural State and
therefore temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend as well
as relative humidity values.

Around the Wednesday/Thursday time frame an area of low pressure
will move northeastward along the Gulf Coast. This feature will
allow slight chances for rain across the far southeastern portions
of the state. Due to modest instability and relatively weak wind
shear, severe weather is not anticipated with the thunderstorms on
Thursday evening.

Overall, expect temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s for highs on
Wednesday and Thursday with low temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Tuesday

Initially, upper flow will be flat, and the area will be between a
system along the Gulf Coast, and a frontal boundary in the plains.
As a cutoff low drops down into the northern Plains, the flow will
amplify and kick the front into the region. Yes, you heard me
correctly. A front in late June.

Anyhow, the front will move into the state as the upper flow
flattens again. This will stall it out. With several waves moving
through and interacting with it, there will be a continued chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Could be an MCS or two, depending on
where the front sets up and the timing of the systems interacting
with the front.

As the upper ridge tries to build back to the north, the frontal
boundary will in turn follow suit early next week. However, this
likely won`t last, as a stronger trough digs down into the central
conus, and amplifies the longwave pattern again.

So, needless to say, temperatures will largely be dependent on cloud
cover and any rain that falls. Mins will likely stay close to or be
a little above average, while maxes should largely stay below
average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  88  71  88 /  10   0  10  10
Camden AR         67  90  71  88 /   0  10  10  30
Harrison AR       64  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    67  90  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  67  89  72  88 /  10  10   0  20
Monticello AR     68  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  30
Mount Ida AR      65  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  63  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
Newport AR        65  88  72  89 /  10   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     67  88  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Russellville AR   66  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  20
Searcy AR         65  89  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      67  89  71  88 /  10  10   0  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...CROSS / Long Term...57



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