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000
FXUS64 KLZK 080024 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL SEE
SOME LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS TIME GOES ON. A FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NE FROM TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TIME SO KEPT MENTION
OF SOME TEMPO 3-5SM FOG AT ALL SITES TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SOME
LOWER VSBY FORECAST AT KPBF AND KADF. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN
A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LOWER
CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDDAY SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK AROUND 19Z-20Z...WITH VCSH EXPECTED AS
WELL. STEADY -RA/-SHRA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22Z-00Z FOR NRN
SITES. INCLUDED SCT025 AT KHOT AND KADF AROUND 22Z TO INDICATE
CIGS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS...BUT THINK ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD ENDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO ENTER THE STATE BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY...AND CLEAR IT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPLIFT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE RAIN...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE GREATER SOUTH OF THE
STATE...SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AT ANY RATE...
THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF KIND OF EVENT. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...AND BY MONDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION...BRINGING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST...AT
LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THIS UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT EAST...BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE COLD AIR TO WORK
WITH...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN. THE QUESTION WILL THEN BECOME...WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH...AND
WILL THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC FEATURES BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO SEE WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN? THESE DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE GONE MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP EXCEPT
PORTIONS OF NRN AR WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS BEEN MENTIONED.
AGAIN...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND MANY DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE COMING DAYS. BEYOND WED NIGHT...CONSENSUS IS HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  37  57  36 /   0  10  60  60
CAMDEN AR         64  42  66  45 /   0   0  40  40
HARRISON AR       58  38  51  30 /   0  10  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  41  64  43 /   0  10  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  40  63  43 /   0  10  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     62  43  66  47 /   0   0  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      65  39  60  40 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  36  53  33 /   0  10  70  60
NEWPORT AR        52  39  58  36 /   0  10  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     59  41  64  45 /   0   0  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  38  58  41 /   0  10  70  60
SEARCY AR         52  36  60  41 /   0  10  60  50
STUTTGART AR      56  41  62  43 /   0   0  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64