Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 271739 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP STEADY SOUTH
WINDS 4-7KT AFTER 08Z-10Z OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KHRO AND
KBPK WHERE THE ELEVATION WILL ALLOW THEM TO PICK UP SOME INFLUENCE
OF A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 18-20KT SHOULD START
SURFACING AT THOSE TERMINALS BY 10Z-12Z OR SO FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR WERE
THINNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT NE AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TODAY WITH ONLY 40S MOST LOCALS...WHILE SOME LOWER 50S IN SW
AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AR
AND BRING THE COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER AR.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  29  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  30  58  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  31  59  48 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  30  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     50  30  57  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  29  59  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  29  55  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  31  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  30  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  28  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      48  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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