Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 201719
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
Post frontal, MVFR cigs will clear from northwest to southeast
during the afternoon hours. SKC conditions, and a light northwest
near surface flow will prevail after 00z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016)
Near term forecasts have been updated to account for precipitation
trends. Band of broken, weak convection, now bisects the forecast
area from northeast to southwest. This band, and the
corresponding cold front. will continue eastward, and will clear
the forecast area during the early afternoon hours.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016)
A cold front is moving across the state this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms have made it east of HRO and stretch southwestward
to Mena and Arkadelphia. Low ceilings and visibilities will be
associated with the front and precipitation. The precipitation
will exit the southeast this afternoon. Northwest winds will gust
to 20kts behind the front. Expect clearing by late afternoon into
the evening. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
The upper trough continues to dig into the Plains this morning with
an upper ridge over the west coast. This upper trough will pass
through Arkansas this afternoon and evening and will make it to the
east coast Friday night. The upper ridge in the west will move to
Texas by Saturday...providing a northwest flow for Arkansas.
A cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring good chances
of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest flow will continue to bring
moisture into the area. The 00Z LZK sounding shows a lot of dry air
above 750mb. This is why the rain is having trouble making it into
central Arkansas. It will take some time to moisten the column. As a
result...although rain chances will be high amounts will be on the
light side. The rain chances exit our CWFA by sunset tonight.
High pressure and cooler air will filter into the area behind the
front. After highs in the 60s and 70s today, lows tonight will be in
the 40s in most locations with around 50 degrees in the southeast.
Highs will be in the 60s Friday and a bit warmer in the lower 70s
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday
A large area of high pressure will slide to the east to begin the
period. Winds will become southerly with time, and that will result
in a warming trend heading into the new week.
Looking aloft, a northwest wind flow will be replaced by ridging
over the middle part of the country. This supports the transition
from seasonal weather to above average temperatures. By Wednesday or
so, data is showing a ripple of energy building from the central
Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley. This looks fairly weak, and
given a lack of moisture, it appears that any precipitation will be
spotty. Put in small chances of rain north of Little Rock.
Otherwise, this is a dry forecast.