337
FXUS64 KLZK 130516 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After the typical mid morning lull in showers and
thunderstorms...have seen quite the uptick in showers and
thunderstorm development over the past 30 minutes or so. High
temperatures this afternoon look to generally remain on track.
Portions of Boone county this morning saw 2-3 inches of rain over
about 2-3 hours in locations just west of Lead Hill. This has
primed that small area for flash flooding and will bear watching
as showers and thunderstorms are forecast there later today. No
watch will be issued however as this area is extremely small.

This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move through the state. The greatest
chances are expected across NW Arkansas out ahead of a stalled
boundary. This boundary will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the weekend across NW parts of the state, while
shower and thunderstorm potential in portions of central and SE
Arkansas will be more diurnally driven.

Lather, rinse, and repeat on Sunday as continued shower and
thunderstorms potential will be in the forecast. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler on Sunday with increased rain chances and
increased cloud cover across the NW half of the state. In the SE,
temperatures will be very similar to what was seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The pattern will be somewhat unsettled to start the long term.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough axis should be positioned over the
region. Upper level energy associated with the trough will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development in conjunction with a weak
surface boundary. PoP chances should be greatest in the afternoons
and evenings during periods of maximized diurnal heating.

Precipitation chances should decrease heading through mid week as
the aforementioned trough pivots Ewrd while at the same time an
upper ridge builds and expands over the SErn CONUS. AR is
anticipated to reside on the Wrn periphery of this high pressure,
therefore sparse pieces of upper level energy traversing around the
ridge could bring brief periods of increased PoP chances. Late in
the period, some guidance suggest an abundance Gulf moisture could
stream NW towards the region, but the interaction of this moisture
with the eventually placement and strength of high pressure will
ultimately dictate if precip actually moves into AR. There is still
plenty of time to sort out the details of the late week system.

The heat will build moving through mid week, with highs topping out
in the mid 90s to at times upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will have a slight uptick each day through mid week with lows in the
mid/upper 70s. Combine this heat with SW moisture rich  surface
flow, and Apparent T`s could exceed 105 degrees across at least the
Ern half of the state. Thus heat headlines may return to portions of
the state by next week as high pressure moves into the region from
the E. Relief from heat could come from scattered afternoon showers
and storms and possibly again towards the weekend depending on track
of moisture in the Gulf. During the period, if storms become strong,
isolated strong wind gusts would be possible and where storms train
or become stationary, isolated pockets of flash flooding is
possible. Organized severe weather appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Occasional impacts from RA/TS activity will be possible across
area terminals through the period. This could lead to periods of
reduced cigs/vsby as well as erratic/strong wind gusts. Portions
of west and north Arkansas may see some of the most widespread
coverage through the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions and S-SW
winds up to 10 kts are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  72  91  72 /  70  20  50  10
Camden AR         93  73  94  74 /  50  20  50  10
Harrison AR       84  69  85  70 /  70  20  60  20
Hot Springs AR    93  73  92  73 /  60  30  60  10
Little Rock   AR  92  75  92  75 /  50  20  60  10
Monticello AR     93  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
Mount Ida AR      90  71  90  72 /  70  30  60  10
Mountain Home AR  85  70  87  70 /  70  20  60  10
Newport AR        91  73  92  74 /  60  20  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     93  74  94  74 /  40  20  50  10
Russellville AR   89  72  90  73 /  60  30  60  10
Searcy AR         91  73  92  72 /  60  20  50  10
Stuttgart AR      92  75  92  75 /  50  20  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67