Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171716 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LARGE TS COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY
HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE ARKANSAS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TS ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS ANOTHER LINE DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR KNRO/KBPK THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CENTRAL AR TAF SITES AOA 22Z. OTHER THAN THE TS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST...WITH MOST
SITES SEEING IFR AND LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BUILD IN. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR MORE SH/TS ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WL CONT TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDS ACRS
MUCH OF THE FA THRU MID MRNG. A FEW LOCATIONS WL CONT TO SEE LIFR
CONDS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS EARLY. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS LATER THIS
MRNG. ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS SRN MO COULD AFFECT KHRO AND KBPK
TOWARD MID TO LATE MRNG. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
AFFECT NRN AR LATE TODAY AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF WRN AR LATER
TNGT. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RESULTS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
HIGH SHOULD EXTEND TO ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL TEND TO WAFFLE AROUND THE STATE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH ARKANSAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AFFECTING CENTRAL
SECTIONS MORE SO. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER UPR SYS/CDFNT SEWD INTO THE FA ON
SUN...ALONG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. OPTED
STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS
HANDLE OVERALL TRENDS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO A GREATER
CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT TO CLOSE OUT OF THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  80  62  83 /  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  88  68  89 /  20  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       64  78  61  80 /  40  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  86  67  85 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  85  66  86 /  50  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  88  67  88 /  30  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      68  85  65  84 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  78  60  81 /  40  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        64  80  61  83 /  40  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  66  87 /  40  40  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  85  65  84 /  40  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         66  82  63  83 /  40  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  84  65  85 /  40  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226




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