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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240325
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPS...CLOUDS...AND WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
BUT I LOWERED WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOOKS AS IF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS A BIT SLOWER FILTERING IN THAN EXPECTED AND A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH0UT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCT MID CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME BREEZY WINDS
BEGINNING SOON AFTER SUNRISE IN CENTRAL AND S AR...SO BUMPED UP
THE WIND FORECAST THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET UP JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER WAVE HAS TOUCHED OFF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OKLAHOMA...WHICH HAVE WANED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM THE STORMS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE READINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE
BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE DURING THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...FAIRLY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF IT. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  51  73  50 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         86  63  79  55 /  20  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       75  51  71  49 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  60  76  55 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  59  78  54 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     85  62  79  54 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      79  60  77  53 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  50  72  49 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        82  52  73  50 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  60  75  55 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  58  78  52 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  75  51 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      82  58  74  54 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$