Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 200517 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...CU
WILL DEVELOP...WITH INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT PERIOD. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5000 FEET...WITH THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8
MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY MORNING AT 4 TO 8 MPH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS AND MID SOUTH WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY AND ANOTHER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS HAS KEPT CLOUDS FROM BECOMING TOO
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO
MOVE EAST OF THE STATE SO IT WILL KEEP THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
WEST OF THE STATE LONGER ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN WEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...AND PEAKING ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FAIR BUT WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG THROUGH THE ROCKIES...WITH RIDGING IN
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATER IN THE DAY...A STORM SYSTEM
WILL FORM IN KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE ROCKIES SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS...BUT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAVE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





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