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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260147
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
847 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to forecasts through 18z/26, mainly for
pop/wx forecasts. Latest subjective surface analysis indicates
the cold front has reached a line from near Mountain Home, to
Mena. Scattered, weak post-frontal convection is noted across
northwest Arkansas, with slightly stronger activity noted in
southeast Arkansas, in a region of localized higher instability.
This activity is expected diminish by late evening, with the weak post-
frontal precipitation continuing, although decreasing in
coverage, as the front continues to the southeast.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016)

AVIATION...
Cold front now across extreme northwest Arkansas will continue to
move southeastward, reaching southeast Arkansas between 06z and
09z. A northwest surface flow of 4-7 knots will prevail after
frontal passage. Chances for any TSRA at individual sites will be
low.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are convection chances today
through Monday, as the system and front move through the region.
Severe storm threat will be very low. Then a temperature forecast
as readings go from well above to below normal values behind the
front.

We have seen a partly to mostly sunny day with warm temperatures
from the upper 80s to low to mid 90s. The surface and upper high
pressure systems have moved east, and a cold front in northeast OK
and south-central MO slow moves southeast. Isolated to scattered
convection has been noted along and some behind the front this
early afternoon. A few light showers were noted earlier over
southeast AR, but dissipated quickly as they moved north. Moisture
remains a bit limited over AR with dew point temperatures from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, while lift remains a bit limited at this
time. Short-range models remain consistent with weakening the
overall convection trends with the system as it moves into Ar
later today, tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

As the system moves into the region, will keep chances of
convection over all of AR, from west to east, tonight through
Monday, before the system pulls out later Monday. As mentioned
early, the strong to severe storm threat is very low, due to
timing of day not ideal, weak lift, instability and dynamics.
Models take the front to near the AR and LA state-line around
sunrise on Monday, then the rain out of AR around noon Monday.
Significantly cooler and drier air will filter into AR behind the
front, and take lows down mainly into the 50s, while highs mostly
into the 70s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday

An upper ridge over the Rockies will move east into the Plains by
Thursday. This ridge will set up over the Plains and Midwest
Friday and really not move. Cooler and quiet weather is expected
through the long term period. No rain is expected and temperatures
will be near normal...with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in the
70s and 80s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99