Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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936
FXUS64 KLZK 031720 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH WILL SCATTER OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A SECONDARY FRONT...TRAILING THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY...WILL BE CROSSING THE MISSIPPI BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE DEWPOINTS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY
YESTERDAY...THIS BOUNDARY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR USHERING IN A
NOTABLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS
IN THE 30S BY DAYBREAK...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS WILL BE OVER 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UP NORTH AS SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PRIME COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 WILL BE SEEN AS A
RESULT...AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN 2 SHORTWAVES AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AR. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A FAST MOVING...DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER
THE STATE FOR SAT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS UPPER WAVE AS IT DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE DECREASES.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...A NEW...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE SERN US...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TO BE HIGHER...OR
THE SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH...THAT SOME PRECIP IS LOOKING MORE POSSIBLE
THAN WITH THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE SOME WINTRY WX COULD BE SEEN SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF MON. AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
FURTHER. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TO END THE FORECAST AS THE
ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



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