Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011748
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INTO THE STATE. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO...A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVER
AR FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO CONVECTION OVER THE TX AND LA GULF COAST.
THESE CLOUDS MAY BE THINK ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE IN THOSE
AREAS WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL MAKE THE
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. YESTERDAY DID SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING OVER AR...AND WITH MODEL TRENDS AGAIN
SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIAL...WITH HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK AND
LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL ONLY FINE TUNE SOME ELEMENTS
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LOT
OF HIGH CLOUDS/SOME MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT RAIN TO LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SKIES CONTINUED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEGAN TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

TODAY...A SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTH TOWARDS THE STATE. DO BELIEVE
THIS WILL BRING GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE GULF COAST
WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO ARKANSAS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH LESS PRECIPITABLE
WATER THEN SOUNDINGS SHOWED MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...DO
THINK AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON MONDAY...BUT NOT SMALL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT REMOVING POPS FROM THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
STATE. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...DID
GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE STATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
ON FRIDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING THREE TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. UNDER THE RIDGE...IT WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THE RIDGE MAY EDGE TO THE WEST AND
BUCKLE A BIT AS A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM WINDOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  92  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       67  90  67  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  94  73  94 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  94  71  94 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      67  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  92  68  92 /  20  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        70  92  70  92 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  95  71  92 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  94  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



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