730
FXUS64 KLZK 282336
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress
eastward across the state through this evening. Will see a
downward trend after sunset, but as a weak disturbance moves
through the mean flow, activity could persist a little longer than
usual. Similar setup expected across the area on Sunday with
the greatest focus for precip across NE/E Arkansas. With abundant
moisture in place, another afternoon of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms is expected with a low overall severe threat, but
slightly better chances of storms producing locally heavy
rainfall.

By Monday, things begin to change across the state and much of
the country. The H500 ridge that has been in place across the
southern US will retreat SW while expanding north across the
western US. This will be in response to a quick moving mid-level
trough expected to move from the Northern Plains toward the Great
Lakes Mon-Tue. At the sfc, a cold front will progress toward the
state from the NW.

This front is expected to make it into the state before stalling.
While this could lead to a brief period of cooler temperatures by
for the first half of the week, it will be brief and it will not
affect all of the state. As the front stalls it will also remain
the focus for chances of showers/storms while over the area. At
this time, northern AR looks to be favored for the most widespread
precip.

While it doesn`t look entirely dry near the end of the period, it
does appear that the H500 ridge will attempt to redevelop over
the state leading to another period of hot temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the vast majority of the
period across area terminals. Hi-res CAMs show most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity largely shift over portions of
southeastern and eastern Arkansas through 10z. Light S/SW winds
will prevail through sunset, then become light and variable
through the overnight hours. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
will be short in duration with variable strong gusty outflow winds
of 20 kts or more, and a brief drop to MVFR or IFR in heavier
showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  75  91 /  30  60  20  70
Camden AR         73  93  74  94 /  20  20  10  30
Harrison AR       70  89  72  88 /  20  50  20  70
Hot Springs AR    73  93  75  94 /  20  30  10  40
Little Rock   AR  74  93  76  92 /  30  40  10  50
Monticello AR     75  93  76  93 /  20  30  10  40
Mount Ida AR      72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  50
Mountain Home AR  70  87  72  89 /  30  60  20  80
Newport AR        74  91  75  92 /  30  70  20  60
Pine Bluff AR     74  92  75  92 /  20  30  10  50
Russellville AR   73  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  60
Searcy AR         72  92  74  93 /  30  50  10  60
Stuttgart AR      75  91  77  92 /  30  40  10  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
 AVIATION...Kelly