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000
FXUS64 KLZK 151755 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1255 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...

A cold front has exited Arkansas to the southeast, with scattered
showers lingering over southeast sections of the state. Low clouds
in the southeast will create a few hours of MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, clearing will occur from the northwest behind the front.
Winds will be north/northwest at 10 to 18 mph with gusts from 16 to
26 mph.

VFR conditions will continue tonight into Monday morning. Winds will
decrease this evening, becoming north/northeast at 5 to 10 mph and a
few higher gusts. North/northeast winds will pick up again Monday
with speeds from 8 to 14 mph and gusts from 16 to 22 mph in places.
&&

.Discussion...

Forecast updates are with light convection moving through AR as the
cold front and upper lift moves east. Also, temperatures will not
warm much over northern AR, while tempered in central areas, as the
cold front brings good cold air advection to AR on the northwest
elevated winds. Also, not going to clear clouds too quick which
would limit solar heating. Hence, upper 50s to lower 60s north, 60s
to lower 70s central, while daily highs over the south will be
before the cold front cools temperatures down. Will fine tune
forecast with updates due to rain chances and cloud cover. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Unseasonably warm temps noted acrs much of AR early this mrng, but
that wl be changing today. Currently watching the leading edge of an
area of convection affecting NW AR. This activity was occurring
along and just ahead of a CDFNT.

Models rmn in good agreement with timing of the aforementioned
CDFNT, with the bndry working into central AR arnd sunrise, then
working out of SE AR toward midday. Minimal potential for any
organized svr storms as the main upper support wl stay well N of the
FA. Due to the progressive nature of the CDFNT, rainfall amounts
will be less and 1/4 inch over the CWA.

High temp fcst wl be a challenge as most locations wl see their
respective high early today. Temps wl fall back into the 50s behind
the FROPA. Cannot rule out some recovery in temps over the NW half
of the FA as clouds decrease this aftn. Gusty NW winds behind the
fnt wl bring much cooler and drier air into the state. Wind speeds
look to stay below ADVY criteria today. Expect seasonal weather for
the rest of the PD, with highs Mon on the mid 60s to mid 70s and
nighttime lows generally in the 40s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Models all in good agreement that after the system moving through in
the short term period, precipitation chances will shut off once
again across the forecast area. Medium range guidance remains in
good enough agreement that one solution can not be favored over
another and a blend of forecast models is preferred.

Period initiates with broad NW flow aloft and surface high pressure
centered to the NE of the state with dry conditions in place. Upper
level high pressure will build over the area through the period as
surface feature moves only slightly to the east, This pattern will
keep precipitation chances near zero. As the upper high builds in,
temperatures will rise to above normal levels once again with highs
generally a few degrees on either side of 80 by weeks end.

An upper level trough of low pressure will move into the western
conus late in the week and be located over the western high plains
by the end of the period. This may produce an increase in clouds
across the area but as of now, no precipitation is expected through
the long range period.

FIRE WEATHER...

Given the lack of widespread and significant precipitation lately
and dry conditions expected through the period, wildfire danger will
remain moderate to high. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop into
the 30th percentile for most of the upcoming week adding to the
potential of wildfires.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$