Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 112339 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
539 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. Dry cold front moving
through from north to south across area terminals will bring NW
winds in place of swrly winds at area terminals through the
morning hours. Winds will be gusty at times, even during the
overnight. Only a few high clouds may be observed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017)
Short Term...Tonight thru Wednesday...
A dry cold front is pushing thru the state this afternoon, and
will usher in cooler and drier air for the short term period.
Highs tomorrow will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than today in many
locations, and overnight lows will drop back down to below
freezing.

Aloft, a NWLY flow will continue thru the period, with a shortwave
rippling across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.

With a lack of surface moisture, the frontal passage and associated
shortwave should result in no precip chances, and just a bit of mid
and high clouds from time to time.

Long Term...Wednesday Night through Sunday...
Little change to the current long term forecast. Long term begins
Wednesday night with a cold front approaching northwest portions
of the state. With little available moisture to work with no
precipitation is expected with the passage of this front...just a
wind shift and cooler temperatures will be seen.

Thursday night the GFS produces a bit of wintry precipitation across
northeast Arkansas as the upper level low swings through the area.
We saw a similar setup last week...however conditions were too dry
to produce any snow. Expect a similar situation to develop and at
this point have kept snow out of the forecast. ECMWF also supports
this conclusion.

High pressure will slide into the region on Friday and allow a brief
warm up on Saturday before the next cold front moves through the
state. At this point the ECMWF continues to keep things dry while
the GFS produces a half of an inch of rain. Again this far out and
the with the GFS being way to wet lately...trended POPs down with
only slight chance pops in southeast Arkansas.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...67



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