Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 171539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
939 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017
Made some forecast updates this morning, primarily to
precipitation chances in the first period. Upper level low is
over the TX panhandle / wrn OK region, and upper level difluence
ahead of the low is helping to drive an area of showers over ern
TX and wrn LA. Last few runs of the HRRR are spreading some of
this precip northward into portions of wrn and srn AR late this
morning into this afternoon.
Introduced some 20 to 30 POPs primarily for the areas mentioned
above. For the most part the other aspects of the forecast seem
to be on track, although I did tweak the winds fields a bit for
today to account for gustier swly winds across wrn areas. 53
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 538 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
VFR conditions will be seen through much of this Fri...but SRLY
winds will keep increasing moisture across the state through
tonight. Some MVFR CIGs will then be seen by late tonight...with
some isolated SHRA also possible. These MVFR conditions will be
limited to the central and SRN sites through 12Z Sat.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 219 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Another dry day will be seen this Fri...though the SRLY SFC flow
will start to bring increasing low level moisture to the state by
this afternoon. Dewpts this morning are in the 20s and 30s...but
should see dewpts increase into the 40s by this afternoon.
Initially...these increased dewpts will be accompanied by increased
cloud cover only...but some rainfall potential will return to the
forecast by tonight and for Sat.
A closed upper low will lift NE over the state by Sat...and will
have seen enough moisture return by this time to see some isolated
to widely SHRA. However...given the low coverage potential...have
continued with slight to low end chance POPs for Sat. What rain
chances that are forecast will decrease by the end of the period as
the closed upper low moves out of the region Sat night. Temps during
the period will remain above normal.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
A split flow pattern will prevail during this period. Forecast
uncertainty increases substantially during the second half of the
forecast period, due to model discrepancies with longer wavelength
energy to cross the Rockies late in the period. Precipitation
forecasts reflect this uncertainty. Above normal temperatures are
expected through this period.