Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220111
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
High clouds continue to stream north into Arkansas. Issued a quick
update to the forecast to increase the cloud cover especially
south and central. Rest of forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016
)

AVIATION...
High pressure is over Arkansas now with the stalled front across
north Texas and north Louisiana. Dry conditions are expected
through the period in most areas. The front will move north a bit
by late in the day Monday. Included a chance of showers at LLQ for
the last few hours of the period given the northward progression
of moisture and the front. VFR conditions are expected with some
MVFR conditions possible at LLQ late.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are when rain chances are
back in the forecast, and current elevated river levels and
possible flooding.

Morning to early afternoon rain has pushed out of AR, as the drier
and cooler air behind the cold front has gradually filtered into
AR. This drier air has cleared clouds and kept temperatures in the
70s and some lower 80s at this time. The upper low pressure trough
deepened enough to allow the cold front to push all the way
through AR and finally end the rain. Many areas show record
number of days in a row with recorded rain, while Little Rock had
8 consecutive days, surpassing the old record of 7 set back in
1905.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night

Clouds will continue to break as the drier air filters into AR
with the north flow. Much cooler than normal lows are expected
tonight with the 50s over far northwest AR to the 60s elsewhere.
Monday will mainly stay dry, with increasing clouds from the
southwest, and eventually some light rain developing later in the
day. Some uncertainty in models on the timing and amount of rain
moving back into AR. Will see clouds but have taken slower
approach to bring it back into AR due to limited moisture and
lift. Monday Night to Tuesday, moisture levels do come up and
low chances of rain are back in the forecast. Amounts are also
expected to be low. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be a bit
warmer but again overall below normal by a few to 5 degrees.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

After a reprieve from the heat...more typical summertime weather
will creep back into the forecaster area this week. By Tue evening
the cold front that brought a relief to the heat will be lifting
back north through the region...allowing warm and humid air to
return to portions of the state. The initial push will be in the
west as some remnant influence of surface high pressure will still
be seen in eastern Arkansas Tue evening. But typical warm and
muggy conditions will return to all of Arkansas by
Wednesday...lasting through the remainder of the period.

The warm front on Tue evening will almost certainly be a focus for
some showers and thunderstorms...but this should be largely tied to
daytime heating so precip chances after sunset Tue will be low.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build northwest from the
central Gulf Coast towards Arkansas on Wed and will result in partly
cloudy skies...dry conditions...and highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. These temperatures will continue through the end of the week. A
couple of northern tier disturbances will push a boundary towards
Arkansas from the north on Thursday but high pressure will likely
keep it from moving into the state. Kept low chance PoPs in the
forecast to account for the uncertainty there with the highest
values in the northwest. However the upper high does weaken from
Friday onward so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoons thereon.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

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