Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221755
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA AND TS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN NRN AND WRN
AR...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY...SHRA AND TS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
STATE WITH FQT IFR CONDITIONS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CREATE
LLWS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS FO MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBY. A
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE DAY...ENOUGH TO ALLOW
CIGS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR BY
18-20Z. FURTHER NORTH MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LATER TONIGHT A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL
SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KLLQ...BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED INTO ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH
LATER TAF PACKAGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WAS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH DAWN
APPROACHING. AT THE SAME TIME...A BIG STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING QUICKLY OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM HEADS THIS WAY. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST...SHOWERS WILL
TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED. AS THE FRONT LIFTS TOWARD MISSOURI...IT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SPRINGLIKE AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE. THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/SOME THUNDER...AND RAIN COULD BE HEAVY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY ROB SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE REGION...AND THIS MAY CUT INTO LOCAL TOTALS.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY WEST
WINDS IN THE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ON
TUESDAY...AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT DIVERGE QUICKLY
THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. STILL...DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES BY AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTIONING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD...AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL DECENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE
LARGELY IN THE 40S ON THU AND FRI...BUT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WED
NIGHT ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  52  63  41 /  40  80  90  30
CAMDEN AR         70  57  71  45 /  20 100  50  10
HARRISON AR       58  52  64  38 /  70  70  60  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  56  69  42 /  40  80  80  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  56  67  45 /  20  90  90  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  57  71  47 /  20 100  80  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  57  69  41 /  60  80  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  51  62  38 /  60  70  80  30
NEWPORT AR        63  53  64  44 /  30  80 100  30
PINE BLUFF AR     68  57  69  46 /  20 100  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  55  66  40 /  60  70  80  20
SEARCY AR         63  55  66  44 /  20  90  90  20
STUTTGART AR      66  56  68  47 /  20 100  90  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28




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