Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 130556
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR THRU MID-MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO BR...WITH LOCAL IFR IN A FEW SPOTS.
CU DEVELOPING AT MID-MORNING AND DISSIPATING FOR THE MOST PART
AROUND SUNSET. INTRODUCED VCTS FOR KHRO AND KBPK AFTER 03Z AS
FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES S...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TSRA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS IN THE NORTH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THEN TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANT WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
AND THROUGH AR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION CHANCES PICKUP
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO AR...AND CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY. THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
AR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY
AFFECTS AR.

THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS AR AS THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE STATE. TEMPS ARE WARMING THROUGH
THE 80S AND INTO THE 90S...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS OVER SW TO S AR
WITH LOWER 90S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS CENTERED OVER OK TO NE
TX AND W AR. CONVECTION OVER IN AND KY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND
WEAKEN WITH THE UPPER FLOW. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TAKE HIGHS
TODAY INTO THE LOWER WITH SOME MID 90S OVER MANY LOCATIONS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE FROM THE MID 90S TO A FEW AROUND 100 DEGREES
IN SEVERAL SPOTS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MORE LIMITED TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE HOT AND DRY. THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY MOVE MORE WEST...WHILE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE RIDGE BEGINS WEAKENING AND THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG
INTO AR ON MONDAY...THE DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT APPEAR TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND LOW. TEMPS
WILL ALSO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE FRONT...AND GO FROM THE 80S
AND 90S ON MONDAY...TO THE 80S AND SOME 70S BY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES BACK NORTH OVER THE REGION. WHILE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH READINGS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL NOT
LAST LONG...AS READINGS BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  69  81 /  20  50  50  20
CAMDEN AR         75  96  74  90 /  10  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       72  89  64  78 /  20  50  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  72  86 /  10  50  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  94  72  85 /  10  50  50  30
MONTICELLO AR     76  95  75  87 /  10  50  50  50
MOUNT IDA AR      74  95  72  85 /  10  50  50  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  90  64  79 /  20  50  50  20
NEWPORT AR        74  90  70  81 /  20  50  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     75  95  74  86 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  93  70  83 /  20  50  50  20
SEARCY AR         74  91  71  82 /  20  50  50  20
STUTTGART AR      75  93  73  84 /  10  50  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28





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