Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 182330 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should persist through the period. Winds will
increase for Fri afternoon as the pressure gradient
increases...with the strongest winds across NRN AR. Some mid
level clouds will increase across SRN AR for Fri as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Seeing quite the change in temperatures out there today across
the state, with many locations some 10-20 degrees warmer than
yesterday.

For the short term period, high pressure at the surface over the
AR/LA/MS borders will continue to drift southeast with time. Aloft, a
weak shortwave trough will pass over the state in the northwest flow.
Just south of the state it will intensify somewhat and begin to move
east, possibly as a closed low rather than an open wave. This
feature will help to provide lift for some light rain on Saturday,
but POPs remain low during the day. A more robust system will
approach from the west at the start of the long term portion of the
forecast.

As was seen today, southerly winds and clear skies will help
temperatures warm further on Friday. Temperatures will actually be
near normal for this time of year. Moisture return will be slow
to occur during the day Friday, with significantly increased
moisture expected at the start of the long term.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

Unsettled weather conds expected at the start of the PD ahead of a
strong storm system that wl centered ovr Ern CO Sat evening. The
models are is good agreement today taking the low pres system into
the Cntrl Plains states Sun, then into the Great Lakes region by
Mon.

Southerly winds wl be bringing plenty of moisture into AR at the
start of the PD. Still expecting low clouds, along with chances for
light rain/drizzle Sat night as the warmer advects over the colder
ground. Areas of fog wl also be noted. These conds wl persist into
Sun.

Heading into Sun night, a CDFNT trailing fm the aforementioned storm
sys, wl push Ewd thru AR. Rain chances wl ramp up ahead of the front
as it moves thru the FA. There wl be a chance for some convection
with the FROPA. Model data does show a narrow axis of limited
instability just ahead of the front, with SBCAPE values below 500
J/KG. There is sufficient low lvl shear which could still aid on the
formation of a narrow line of convection. Bottom line at this point
is to monitor model trends in the next few days.

Clouds wl decrease quickly on Mon, with drier and cooler conds
expected thru the rest of the PD.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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