Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 281115 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Conditions will largely remain vfr through much of the period,
with variable mid and high level cloudiness. By the afternoon
hours, there will be enough instability for isolated showers and
maybe a thunderstorm, but anything that develops will diminish
around/shortly after sunset. By early Sunday morning, low clouds
and fog in the west and north could restrict conditions to mvfr.
Tafs out shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
I really didn`t make many wholesale changes to the forecast this
morning. Abundant moisture remains over the region, with southerly
winds continuing. Several weak upper level systems will move up
through the region in the mean flow, giving at least a shot at
isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain above average, with low clouds and fog
possible each morning.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Weak SW flow aloft will be in place across the region to start of
the period on Memorial Day...with weak SRLY SFC flow keeping
moisture levels high. Most notable will be humidity levels remaining
up...and with temps in the 80s...expect muggy conditions to persist.
With moisture levels high...expect some chances for SHRA/TSRA to
remain in the forecast...with best chances in the afternoon hrs Mon
and Tue. Expect precip coverage to be primarily isolated...with the
threat for severe weather also remaining isolated.
By Wed and Thu...a deepening upper trough will be dropping SE
towards the region...with a SFC cold front moving south across the
Plains. Expect precip chances to increase for Wed and especially Thu
as a result as there will be more forcing for ascent for a bit more
widespread and organized SHRA/TSRA activity with the front moving
through. While a bit early to discuss the details regarding any SVR
WX potential this far out in time...looks like there could be a bit
more potential for some strong to SVR storms with this frontal
Chances for precip then decrease for Fri as the front drops further
south through the state. Drier/less muggy conditions will then be
seen for the end of the forecast...as well as some cooler temps.
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Humidity will remain high, with chances for showers
and thunderstorms each day.