Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271141
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH A WIND SHIFT BETTER
MARKING ITS PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KADF WHERE FOG IS BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  68  86  63 /  20  30   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  74  92  67 /  20  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       94  65  83  60 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  72  88  66 /  30  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  74  90  68 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      95  71  89  64 /  30  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  65  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        96  68  86  63 /  30  30   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  69  88  63 /  30  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  71  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





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