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000
FXUS64 KLZK 022047
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A WIDE RANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL DEFINED...EARLY SEASON ARCTIC
AIR MASS TO APPROACH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANAFRONT TYPE WINTER PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AFFECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS EARLY IN THE EVENT. HOWEVER...WINTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD AND DRY...THEN SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
AR...THEN BACK TO DRY AND COLD FOR MONDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...AS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE COMING
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH AR
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES OUT OF THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ANY REMAIN WINTRY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE STATE...BUT
USHER IN COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN AR...TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER NORTHERN AR...WHILE
AROUND 30 CENTRAL...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...A SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...AS UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS BACK MOISTURE TO
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POSSIBLE AND
COMBINING WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD SURFACE TEMPS...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTH SHOULD MOSTLY SEE SNOW...WITH THE WINTRY MIX OVER CENTRAL
AREAS...THEN EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY. ON MONDAY A DRY AND COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED.

OVERALL CONFIDENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...BASED ON THE
EXACT TIMING...TEMPERATURES...AND AMOUNTS OF WINTER WEATHER. THERE
IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT SOME PARTS OF ARKANSAS WILL SEE SOME
WINTER PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND BE
PREPARED FOR A SECONDARY SHOOT OF WINTER WEATHER AFTER AFTER THE
FRIDAY EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  66  53  65 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         49  72  59  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       44  66  47  57 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  68  55  67 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  68  56  68 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  71  59  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      45  68  54  65 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  66  50  60 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        47  67  55  66 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     49  70  58  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  67  52  66 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         47  67  55  67 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  68  57  69 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...59