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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230859
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
359 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
The high pressure will weaken somewhat over the area for the short
term period. Thunderstorms continue this morning in central
Missouri. High clouds from these storms will enter north Arkansas
through the morning. Hot and humid conditions will continue through
today and included the southern part of our area in the Heat
Advisory. All of our CWA will be in the Heat Advisory through this
evening as heat indices will be 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon.

The cold front will move to near the Missouri border today. This
will bring more unstable air to the area and shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase. Also, there is an outflow
boundary drifting south from the Missouri storms. This could
initiate some thunderstorms later this morning as well. There is a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight with
damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Also, without much
flow aloft any storm could produce heavy rainfall in a short
amount of time. Will keep rain chances in the forecast through
the period...and the front will move back to the north into
Missouri late Monday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday
with highs mainly in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Some good news and bad news exists in the extended period with all
long term models basically on the same page. The good news is some
relief from the heat is expected but now the bad news, this will
not occur until late in the period.

The period initiates with a weak boundary across the area with a
continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chances
will be in the afternoon and over the east but precipitation can not
be ruled out anywhere across the state. The front will wash out with
the upper ridge flexing its muscles once again on Wednesday and to a
lesser extent Thursday with highs well into the 90s across the
region. Heat related headlines may be needed once again.

The upper ridge is now expected to move back to the west late next
week and get reestablished over the central Rockies. This pattern
change will actually bring northwest flow back to the area with a
cold front moving well into the state. Its often difficult to get a
front to move through the entire state this time of the year so
cautious optimism will be maintained.

Regardless, will actually lower temperatures to slightly below
normal levels, especially across the north and central sections of
the forecast area. Precipitation chances will also be increasing
with the aforementioned northwest flow and frontal system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  73  91  74 /  40  40  30  20
Camden AR         93  75  91  74 /  40  40  50  20
Harrison AR       92  71  91  71 /  50  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    94  75  91  74 /  30  40  50  20
Little Rock   AR  94  76  91  75 /  30  40  40  20
Monticello AR     93  75  91  75 /  40  40  50  20
Mount Ida AR      94  74  91  73 /  30  40  50  20
Mountain Home AR  93  71  92  71 /  50  40  20  20
Newport AR        94  74  91  75 /  40  40  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     94  75  91  74 /  30  40  50  20
Russellville AR   95  74  91  74 /  40  40  30  20
Searcy AR         95  75  91  74 /  40  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      94  76  91  75 /  30  40  40  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...56