Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181626 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1030 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.Discussion...

Overall forecat on track. Storm system and cold front will move
through AR this afternoon to tonight, and develop scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Main convection factors remain north to
northeast of AR, while the northeast part of AR may see an isolated
strong to severe storm. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat,
especially if the low level jet from 40-50 knots can make its way to
the ground with storms. Currently the cold front was just pushing
into far northwest AR, with a northwest wind at 15 to 25 mph with
some gusts over 30 mph. Short range strongest lift is seen over
northern AR today, and hence the highest POP and convection chances.
Lake wind or wind advisories are in effect over all of AR for
elevated winds. Radar over AR is just starting to show a line of
convection forming and this will develop a bit and move quickly
east. Temperatures will be in sharp contrast with 50s northwest, to
70s south. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ issued 637 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/
.AVIATION.

CDFNT was poised to enter far NW AR this mrng. MVFR Cigs wl be
common thru much of today as the FNT moves acrs the FA. Model data
cont to show the bndry exiting SERN AR by late aftn. Gusty S/SW
winds ahead of the fnt, with shift to the NW behind it. Expect
sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Kept VCSH in the fcst as potential for convection wl be to our E.
VFR conds wl return by tngt as high pres blds into AR. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 355 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night

Sfc low pres was centered over Ern KS early this mrng, producing
gusty SLY winds acrs AR. Have already seen some ob reports of wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph. It was also an unseasonably mild morning
with temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The springlike wx conds wl be short lived as a CDFNT trailing SWD fm
the aforementioned sfc low wl sweep EWD thru the area today. Current
trends have the fnt into our NW CWA arnd mid-mrng, into central AR
at midday, and SE of the area late this aftn. Much of the FA wl see
high temps occur prior to FROPA, with falling temps thereafter.

Gusty S/SW winds wl shift to the NW behind the fnt. Already have a
Lake Wind Advy posted for the FA. Rain chances along and ahead of
the fnt still look limited for our FA, with better chances for
organized convection still focused to our E. Post-frontal rain wl be
mainly confined to NRN AR into the mid aftn hrs.

The rest of the weekend wl be drier and much cooler as high pressure
settles into the region.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

An upper ridge will be over much of the U.S. to begin the period. A
weak upper trough develops Monday in the Plains Monday then moves
through Arkansas Monday night. This trough deepens as it moves east
and will reach the east coast Wednesday as an upper ridge builds
over the western U.S. GFS indicates a cutoff low develops in the
Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and moves it up the east coast
Friday, while the ECMWF does not. Northwest flow aloft remains over
Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

Overall, expect mainly dry conditions during the extended period.
High pressure will be over the area Monday but a cold front moves
through the area Tuesday and will bring a slight chance of showers
to the south part of the state. High pressure will be over the area
Wednesday through Friday with dry conditions. Temperatures will be
near normal to a bit below through the extended period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

$$



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