Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...28





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