Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 161929
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE STATE TODAY...CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM NWRN AR...DOWN TO AROUND LITTLE ROCK...THEN EAST ALONG I-40.
VIS SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY FAIRLY WELL...ALONG THE EDGE
OF OVC SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS
FRONT HAS SLOWED AND WILL STALL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HRS. SOME SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND WILL STILL SEE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
HAVE POPS DECREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AFTER SUNSET.

AR WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SETUP WILL ACTUALLY KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UP AS DISTURBANCES PASS SE
OVER THE CWA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST SUCH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
MOVE SE INTO NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED MORNING. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE CWA.
KEEP POPS LOW FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE S/SE
ACROSS THE STATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS SYSTEM MAY PASS FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAY EVEN GIVE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE FOR FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AS A
RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...THIS
FEATURE MAY HAVE ABUNDANT PACIFIC...TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INTERACT
WITH. LATER FORECASTS WILL REFINE ANY FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  81  63  78 /  10  40  50  30
CAMDEN AR         68  90  71  87 /  10  10  20  40
HARRISON AR       62  81  63  77 /  20  40  50  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  87  69  84 /  10  20  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  69  83 /  10  20  40  40
MONTICELLO AR     66  89  69  87 /  10  10  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      65  87  68  83 /  10  20  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  80  63  77 /  20  40  50  30
NEWPORT AR        61  80  63  79 /  10  30  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     64  88  68  85 /  10  20  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  86  67  83 /  10  20  40  40
SEARCY AR         62  84  65  81 /  10  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      62  85  67  83 /  10  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...55





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