Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 050543 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
AR EARLY MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY USED VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SE TO SW AROUND 5 MPH. ON SUNDAY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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