Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 062342 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
542 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



VFR conditions will be seen to start off this TAF period...but
will likely see MVFR or lower conditions late tonight and during
the day on Wed. Some low CIGS and patchy drizzle will be
possible...along with some patchy fog. No widespread improvements
are expected until beyond this TAF period.



SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

The main concern in the short term is the coincident arrival of
cold air and light precipitation, and the resulting possibility
of winter weather in the northern parts of the state late

A cold front did move through the state today, as noted by a wind
shift across the board and increasingly dry air filtering into the
state. Lingering low clouds will likely not be completely pushed
out of the state this evening before they shift back northward
ahead of the next system that will bring some light precipitation
to Arkansas tomorrow. A developing jet streak, on the order of
+120kt, will setup across the southern plains and into the
southern half of Missouri over the next 24 hours, ahead of a
shortwave trough that will move through Kansas and Missouri. This
will coincide with the arrival of an arctic front in northern
Arkansas tomorrow evening, providing enough lift to generate some
light precip across a better part of the state. Forecast soundings
suggest that the onset of precipitation will be rain up north, but
a quick transition to at least a rain/snow mix, if not all snow, will
be in order.

Now, before you get too excited, forecast precipitation amounts
are low, precip rates are expected to be low, and to top it off
the ground is still quite warm. Thus accumulations should be light
at best. Included a tenth of an inch of accumulation in the
forecast after 00z tomorrow evening, but expect this will be
primarily in the grass and on surfaces like cars, decks, grills,
etc. Precipitation is expected to end shortly after midnight Wed
night. But significantly colder air will be filtering into the
state at that time. Thus it is possible that some slick spots may
show up on roadways late Wed night and into Thu morning.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Night

No significant changes were made to the first part of the long term
with coldest air/apparent temps expected Friday morning as arctic
air continues to filter into the region. Pressure gradient will
relax heading into the weekend with surface winds turning back to
the south providing a warm up into the 40s/50s and an increase in
moisture. Next cold front and associated precip chances will sweep
through during the day on Sunday. As long as the timing doesn`t
change we are looking at all liquid. By the start of the work week,
temperatures will moderate back into seasonal normals in the 50s for
highs and 30s for lows.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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