Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...AS MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES DID NOT WARM AS
MUCH AS FORECAST...AND BASED ON THIS TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL STILL
BE A WARM UP TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER
90S...OR A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY...BUT UPPER LOW ALONG GULF COAST WILL MOVE WEST UNDERNEATH
THE APPROACHING RIDGE. WHILE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE TUESDAY...IT MAY GIVE US ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO SUPPRESS SOME HEATING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR FRONT MOVING INTO
REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...HAVE STARTED SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE...WITH MODELS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A NW UPPER FLOW INTO THE
REGION AND ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH
AR. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT NEAR THE AR AND MO STATE LINE WITH
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NW UPPER FLOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AR.
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TO
EASTERN AR. SATURDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE NORTHWARD
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN MODEL RUNS TO BRING A
MCS INTO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO AR...AND
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT...A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES
ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SEE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.