Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201718 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1118 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some MVFR CIGs continue late this morning...which will continue
off and on through this afternoon. Expect more persistent MVFR or
lower CIGs overnight as moisture levels continue to increase. Some
patchy fog or DZ may also be seen through the rest of this TAF
period...with CIGs as low as below 500 ft AGL. Expect primarily
SRLY SFC winds...with some occasional gusts near or just over 20
kts. More breezy conditions will likely be seen beyond 18Z Sun as
the pressure gradient tightens further.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 502 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Milder air is making its way into Arkansas, and will continue
to do so through the near term with a warming trend in the
forecast. While temperatures go up, there will be a lot of
clouds. Rain will spotty today, and more widespread on Sunday.

The pattern has shifted from a flow out of Canada to a more
dominant southern stream. One system will go by to the south
today, with a much more significant system entering the Rockies
from the west tonight. This system will be our weather maker on
Sunday.

Ahead of the big system, a dewpoint surge will be noted tonight.
Low clouds, drizzle, and fog are expected, and this will continue
into Sunday morning. By the late afternoon and into the nighttime
hours, the system will trigger scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms west of Little Rock. Precipitation will build
to the east through dawn Monday.

At this point, while wind energy/shear will be high surrounding
the system, instability will be marginal. MUCAPE values will
generally be 500 J/kg or less. So, any storms that develop will
move quickly, but few storms should become severe.

Because the system is progressive, rainfall will not be
excessive. But, with a drought continuing, any rain is
appreciated. Half inch to inch and a half amounts are in the
forecast.

Temperatures through the period will be above average.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

An upper low pressure system will be in the Plains Monday and will
move through the Great Lakes Tuesday. Westerly flow over Arkansas
early Wednesday will become northwest late Wednesday. An upper low
will move through west Texas Wednesday night into northeast Texas
Thursday night passing through Arkansas Friday.

A cold front will be exiting eastern Arkansas at the beginning of
the period. Will keep the chance of showers in far eastern sections
of the CWFA for early Monday. These should clear out of the area
quickly in the morning, and clouds will decrease. Dry air will move
into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds will increase late
Thursday into Friday with the area of low pressure. Chances for
showers will also increase Friday. Near to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62


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