Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201130
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions with ceilings will be forecast for the
next 24 hours. A few patches of fog could form early this morning,
with brief MVFR conditions in places. After sunrise on Friday, any
fog will dissipate within an hour or two. A few light showers may
develop over western AR through the day, but coverage is expected to
be low.  Winds will be light and variable or light southeast to
start then become south to southeast at 6 to 14 mph, with some gusts
from 16 to 20 mph mainly in northwest AR. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are continue wildfire danger
across AR, due to lack of rain over several weeks. Then over the
weekend, a storm system is forecast to move through AR, and bring
rain, as well as some threat of strong to severe storms. The best
chances of convection will be Saturday late to Sunday, and into
Monday before the system moves east of AR. Cooler weather
conditions behind the cold front.

Currently, the surface high pressure is off to the east of AR, and
a south wind flow has gradually brought more moisture with current
dewpoint temperatures in the 50s, while the 00Z KLZK precip water
value was still less than 0.50 inch. Aloft the upper high pressure
ridge has moved more east, and a southwest upper flow is setting
up over the southern Plains. Mid and high clouds continue to
stream over AR. Some light convection was noted over southeast
TX this morning, moving north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday

Friday will overall remain dry and warm, with above normal
temperatures. Filtered sunshine will be seen with increasing high
clouds streaming into the region. An isolated shower may be seen,
but chance will be too low to include. Friday night, continued
increasing clouds, increasing low level moisture with the south to
southeast wind flow, and a slight chance of light convection,
mainly over the western half of AR. Some short wave energy is seen
in the model runs and have included a low chance in the forecast.
Lows will be milder. Saturday, the gradual moisture increase
continues, with dew point temperatures reaching the 50s to 60s.
Some weak upper level short wave energy is seen in the model
solutions, and a slight to low chance of convection may be seen,
with the highest west and lower in the east. Warm temperatures
remain with highs in the 70s to some 80 readings. Additional
convection will be seen Saturday evening and night, as the cold
front and upper system gradually move through the eastern Plains
and AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

An upper shortwave trough will be moving east across the Plains at
the start of the long term period...with a cold front moving SE
towards AR Sat evening. SHRA/TSRA will develop along this front to
the west of the state...then move ESE into far WRN and NWRN AR Sat
night into early Sun morning. Some strong to SVR storms will be
possible...especially Sat evening into the early overnight period
across the far WRN and NWRN counties of the CWA. Forecast low level
SRH has decreased some...and it looks like the primary hazards will
remain damaging winds as the convection develops into a complex
line. Some large hail may also be seen...but will be more isolated
in nature.

The cold front will continue to move ESE through the state on
Sun...with best POPs transitioning east over time. Expect this front
and convective activity to move east of the state by Sun
evening...though some lingering SHRA may be seen across the ERN
third of the CWA Sun evening through Mon. This will be result of the
slowing...but deepening upper low over AR. Most areas will see at
least some rainfall from this storm system...with many areas seeing
on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Some locally higher
amounts may be seen.

By Tue and through much of the rest of the forecast...will see dry
conditions and cool temps as a new upper trough/closed low dive SE
across the Plains and over the region. This looks to be a much
deeper upper low and fairly strong cold front where temps may
eventually become the coolest so far this season. As for additional
precip potential...there looks to be no time for any moisture return
before this new storm system and cold front move into the region to
see any decent shot for precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  59  79  64 /   0  10  20  90
Camden AR         79  62  82  68 /  10  20  30  70
Harrison AR       76  59  76  57 /   0  20  20 100
Hot Springs AR    77  62  80  65 /  10  20  30  90
Little Rock   AR  79  62  79  65 /   0  10  20  80
Monticello AR     80  62  80  68 /   0  10  30  60
Mount Ida AR      76  61  79  64 /  10  20  30  90
Mountain Home AR  77  59  77  60 /   0  10  20  90
Newport AR        78  59  79  65 /   0  10  20  90
Pine Bluff AR     79  61  80  67 /   0  10  20  70
Russellville AR   76  60  78  64 /  10  20  30  90
Searcy AR         78  59  78  65 /   0  10  20  90
Stuttgart AR      79  60  80  66 /   0  10  20  80
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62



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