Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 202100
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  35  55  40 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  34  48  38 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  35  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  35  55  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  34  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  31  49  39 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  36  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  31  49  36 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  40 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46




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