Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270339 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1039 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INCLUDES ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE
HRRR MODEL RUNS...WHILE HAVING FLIP FLOPPED A BIT THROUGH THE
EVENING...HAVE SLOWED THE OVERALL CONVECTION ENTERING THE STATE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 1 AM. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EARLY ON.
HOWEVER...THE TIME OF DAY IS WORKING AGAINST IT. OTHERWISE...THE
OVERALL FORECAST TREND OF POPS/QPF/TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE TOWARDS
ARKANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. VRF CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR FROM WEST
TO EAST...AS VCTS APPROACH NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. SOME
STORMS MAYBE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35KT TO 45KT
AND HEAVY RAIN DROPPING CIGS TO IFR ON OCCASION. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR DAY
BREAK...REACHING SOUTHERN SITES BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS BECOMING
SSW WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10KT TO 20KT AND CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER AR FROM THE SW AND HAVE KEEP
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION MAY STILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR AND OVER WESTERN
PARTS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. THE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESE...AND STILL MAY PUSH AN OUTFLOW TO NEAR NORTHERN AR. SHORT
RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP OVER AR
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S STATE WIDE. THE UPPER DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WERE OVER THE ROCKIES.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AND AR. LIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN INITIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AR WITH ANY OUT FLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE MO CONVECTION
COMPLEX...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT. SPS HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AR...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS...WHILE THE WIND PROFILES DO SHOW SOME VEERING
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCALLIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES HAVE REACHED WELL OVER AN INCH WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF OF MEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MAIN CORE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF AR...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO AR...AND BRING A DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD UPPER LOWS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FORCE THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEXT LOW WILL
FOLLOW THE SAME PATH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR THE ROCKIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE
EXTENDED.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...59

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224



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