Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281754 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...27/18Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST
TO CLEAR WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE THERE WILL BE MUCH IMPROVEMENT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE
STATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY END ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY BUT IS LIKELY OVER ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

UPDATES IS OUT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WERE ALSO
TWEAKED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS TO NORTH ARKANSAS BUT NO RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE WEEKEND. COOLER
AIRMASS WL BE IN PLACE AT START THE PD...WITH SOME PTCHY FROST STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO MODERATE
STARTING ON SUN AS THE SFC RDG WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD.

A DVLPG STORM SYS WL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS STARTING
MON...WITH MOISTURE/RAIN CHCS RETURNING TO THE FCST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO EXPECT SOME
CHGS WITH THE FCST IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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