Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010840
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAINLY
IN THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN MUCH LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEPENDED ON
CONVECTION CHANCES...AND ALSO ANY POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THEN SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
OTHERWISE AREA RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AND WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO A FEW WEEKS.

CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND CENTER WAS OVER THE
REGION WITH THE LOW NEAR SE MO TO NE AR. ONLY VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION WAS SEEN THIS EARLY MORNING...AND MAINLY ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE IT WOULD BE EXPECTED. AN MCS WAS
OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND MOVING SE. AT THE SURFACE THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OUT OF AR...WHILE MODERATELY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO AR. THE UPPER PATTERN HAS HELD THE
COOLEST AND DRIEST AIR NORTH OF AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER MOST OF AR WHILE A
BIT BETTER OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR AND TO THE EAST WHERE THE MAIN
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BE. DID ONLY USE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
AR WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER TO SE AREAS. CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED SOME LIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER
ALL OF AR...WITH BEST IN THE SE TO EC. TONIGHT...MODELS TREND THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST TO THE TN VALLEY AND ITS
INFLUENCE OVER AR WILL BE DROPPING. WILL GO DRY IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASING CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF AR...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RISK
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A NW FLOW
INTO AR BECAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD INTO THE REGION
ENOUGH TO TAKE ANY ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO A S TO SE SURFACE WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...AND SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STAY UP
AS WELL  AS CURRENT QUITE MOIST GROUND DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
FLOODING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S DUE
TO THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH...DUE TO POTENTIAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...BUT DID GO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO ALL THE RECENT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  77  58 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         79  61  82  62 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  56  77  58 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  61  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  61  80  62 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  61  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  60  80  61 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  56  78  58 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        74  58  77  59 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     78  61  80  62 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  60  80  60 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  61  79  62 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58




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