Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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606
FXUS64 KLZK 021948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RECENT DATA FROM KLZK RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
23Z. POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

DRY CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS.
THIS FRONT SHOULD USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REMAINING ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE STATE.

THE EAST CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL UPPER BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SEND AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EAST OVER
ARKANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL
DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SIDE EAST OF ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY...BUT LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO
RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH THE LIFT HOLDING TOO
FAR BACK TO THE WEST BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEAST IN
THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER ARKANSAS. THESE TROUGHS COMBINED
WITH A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY...HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN EARLY MAY... SO
CLIMATOLOGY ALONE HINTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...A BEAUTIFUL WEEK OF WEATHER
IS IN STORE FOR ARKANSAS!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  70  51  76 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  73  52  79 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       44  67  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  72  53  78 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     56  72  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  71  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  69  48  75 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        52  71  51  76 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  71  52  76 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  72  49  77 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  70  50  77 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      56  70  52  76 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...66



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