Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 091130 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen through the period. Winds
will be northwest to north at less than 5 mph or light and variable
to start, then become more northeast to east at 3 to 9 mph. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 305 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are temperatures running 10
to 20 degrees below normal, then late Saturday into Sunday with a
chance of precipitation in the forecast. The chance of
precipitation remains in the forecast Monday then pushing out on
Tuesday. Colder and drier Wednesday to the end of the week.
Currently the arctic surface high pressure system has settled over
AR with light north winds, and with very cold temperatures
currently in the teens over the north, the 20s central and south.
Also very dry conditions are present with dew point temperatures
from the lower to mid teens north and central, to the 20s in the
south. The upper pattern is northwest with a low pressure trough
over the eastern US allowing the cold airmass to filter into the
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
The arctic surface high pressure will settle over AR and bring
sunny conditions but below normal temperatures. Highs will be 10
to 20 degrees below normal, and only reach the mid to upper 30s
over the north, to the upper 30s to lower 40s across central and
southern areas. Winds will be light from the north then become
more northeast to southeast late in the day. Mostly clear skies
will be seen tonight, with again very cold lows in the 20s over
most of AR. Saturday will see sunny skies to start, then
increasing clouds through the day. Highs will be a bit milder on
Saturday with mainly the 40s. As we move to Saturday night, the
surface high pressure moves east, and a south wind flow returns to
AR. Moisture will be slow to rebound, while the upper pattern
becomes more west and some shortwave energy begins to approach AR
late Saturday night. The atmosphere gradually moistens up and
light precipitation is expected to develop toward Sunday morning.
Most temperatures will be above freezing, expect far northern AR
where a wintry mix may be seen. Lows Sunday morning will be from
the lower 40s to upper 30s south, to the 30s central to north.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Frontal boundary will move into the region Sunday, with rain
developing. Upper support is negligible, thus thunder is not
expected to be an an issue as precipitation should be stratiform.
As the front moves into southern Arkansas, it will hit parallel
upper flow, then stall out. Several weak upper level impulses will
move through giving continued small precipitation chances.
By Wednesday, troughing digging down into the mid Mississippi Valley
will give the boundary a push southward and away from the region.
Colder air will follow, with highs on Wednesday back down into the
30s and 40s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 35 21 40 34 / 0 0 0 20
Camden AR 42 23 47 38 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 35 21 42 33 / 0 0 0 20
Hot Springs AR 40 24 44 37 / 0 0 10 20
Little Rock AR 38 23 43 35 / 0 0 0 20
Monticello AR 40 24 46 37 / 0 0 0 10
Mount Ida AR 40 22 44 36 / 0 0 10 30
Mountain Home AR 34 21 41 33 / 0 0 0 20
Newport AR 35 21 40 34 / 0 0 0 20
Pine Bluff AR 38 23 44 36 / 0 0 0 10
Russellville AR 38 23 43 35 / 0 0 0 20
Searcy AR 36 21 41 33 / 0 0 0 20
Stuttgart AR 37 24 43 36 / 0 0 0 20
Short Term...59 / Long Term...57