Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 302304 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR
FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY AROUND 6
KNOTS OR LESS ON MONDAY.

NOTE TO USERS OF THE HRO TAF...DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES AT THE
SITE...THERE WILL BE NO SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS UNTIL THESE ISSUES
ARE RESOLVED.

TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT...INDICATING THE LOW CLOSING OFF WEDNESDAY NEAR THE
ARKLATEX.

REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO REALLY WASH OUT DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH SOUTH
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DRY CONDITIONS...AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...TO THE MID SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD. SEVERAL EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
SOME WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT A LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THESE SOLUTIONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



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