Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 010246
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TOMORROW AND A LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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