Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       91  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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