Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011714
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1214 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.AVIATION...
A light and variable near surface flow will prevail across all
sites during the period. MVFR conditions due to fog are expected
in climatologically favored areas between 09z and 14z, otherwise
VFR conditions will continue.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016)

Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
Very isolated areas of dense fog will be seen at KBPK this morning
then dissipate by mid-morning. Winds will be west to northwest at 5
to 10 mph. Tonight high clouds will be seen with continued VFR.
Again patchy fog will be seen early Sunday morning, mainly near
those areas that are prone to fog formation. Winds will be light
from the northwest to north and light and variable overnight. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 354 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Upper low pressure continues near the Ohio River but will move north
today and into southern Michigan tonight. This low will then
continue to move northeast Sunday and Monday. Northwest flow will
continue over Arkansas. High pressure aloft will build over the
plains through the period.

The quiet weather will continue over Arkansas through the short term
period. Cool and dry conditions will continue through Monday. High
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to to mid 80s today. A slow warm
up will boost high temperatures into the 80s across the area for
Monday. No rain is expected in the short term. Partly cloudy
conditions will dominate the period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Friday

The the first part of the extended forecast will be dry with warming
temperatures. Then the chance of rain is back in the forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday, then cooler and dry Friday.

To start, the upper level and surface high pressure systems will be
off to the east of AR, as a south wind flow increases moisture back
into the region. Monday night to Tuesday, dry weather and warming
temperatures will be seen. Late Tuesday night through Thursday, an
upper level system and cold front will approach AR and will bring a
chance of convection to the region. A slight chance of convection
will start in far western AR Tuesday night, then on Wednesday to
part of Thursday, the system moves through AR and increases chances
of convection. On Thursday, the system gradually moves east out of
AR, taking convection chances out of the state.

At this time the threat of any severe storms appears low, while
model trends are a bit different, with the GFS weakening the front
and dynamics as they do move through AR on Wednesday to Thursday,
the Euro is stronger with more possible convection. At this time
forecast will blend the two models for a solution. As mentioned,
temperatures will be warmer ahead of the cold front, then cool
behind. Highs will start in the 70s to some 80s, to mainly the 80s
by mid-week, cooling to the 70s behind the front. Lows will start in
the 50s to 60s, then warm to the 60s mid-week, then cooling back to
the 50s behind the front.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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