Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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861
FXUS64 KLZK 241148
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms continue in northeast Arkansas
this morning. Expect these to move out of the area in the next
couple of hours. A couple of weak disturbances will move through
the area today and keep small chances of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. Best chances will be in the northwest and west
with the lowest chances in the southeast. Rain chances will
diminish early tonight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though
some MVFR conditions are expected this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the northwest U.S. This pattern will
continue through tonight...then the ridge shifts slightly eastward.

An MCS in western Oklahoma continues to slowly move east. Arkansas
will experience mainly high cirrus blowoff from the storms this
morning. A short wave is expected to move across the state tonight
and this will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area by this afternoon. Will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday night as multiple
disturbances make their way through the area. Highs today will be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s and warmer Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Ridging will be noted over central/eastern sections of the country
in the extended period, with troughing out west. At the surface, a
front will remain nearly stationary in the Plains.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday. By Friday/Friday night,
models have been consistent in showing a system aloft rotating
around the base of the western trough. This feature will bring
better chances of rain locally. After the system passes next
weekend, we will go back to hit/miss precipitation.

Adding up rain in the coming days, could have one to two inch
amounts north/west of Little Rock. Lesser amounts are expected
farther south/east. If there is any severe weather, it will be
spotty. Temperatures will tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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