Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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701
FXUS64 KLZK 292355
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...30/00Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD convection wl affect parts of CNTRL and SERN AR for the first
hour or two of the fcst pd...with MVFR conds noted. Otherwise...
VFR conds wl prevail as convection diminishes ovr the FA this
evening. Patchy fog wl dvlp late tngt...esp in areas that saw
rainfall today. WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA wl dvlp once again Tue aftn.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Upper ridge will be the dominant feature, and this will contract a
bit by Wednesday, allowing a frontal boundary into the region.
Through the short term, temperatures will continue to be above
seasonal averages, with widely scattered, diurnally-driven showers
and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
A large shortwave trough is expected to move southeast over the
Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday. This will send
an unseasonably strong cold front south across much of the central
and eastern CONUS by Thursday afternoon. This front is expected to
move across Arkansas from early Thursday morning through early
Thursday afternoon. Along and out ahead of the front isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible across the state. Because the
front is expected to move across the state during the morning
hours...the chances for severe weather appear to be low at this
time. If the front slows down and moves across Arkansas during the
peak heating hours of the day...strong to severe storms would be
more likely.

Beyond Thursday...An extended period of dry weather looks to set up
across Arkansas. Thursday`s frontal passage adds confidence to the
forecast that tropical activity will remain well off to the
southeast of Arkansas. Behind the front...a cooler and much drier
air mass is expected to move across the state. The North American
Ensemble Forecast System indicates that precipitable water values
will fall to an average of 0.75 to 1.00 inches Friday through
Saturday. This ranks as almost 2 standard deviations below normal
for late August and early September. While the air will be cooler
keeping temperatures below normal...the biggest difference will be
the significant drop in humidity behind the front. This should set
the stage for a beautiful weekend across the state with highs in the
80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s and below normal humidity
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

By early next week...winds will return back to the south bringing
humidity levels back up to seasonal normals across the state. Highs
will once again increase into the lower 90s bringing afternoon heat
index values back up towards 100 degrees. The chances for rain
appear to be low assuming the consensus 12Z model solution of a cut
off cold core low holding over the southeastern CONUS holds true.
This large scale pattern would generally result in upper level
ridging and forcing for subsidence over Arkansas despite the
increase in humidity. Kept POPs out of the forecast for early next
week as a result of this large scale forecast. Rain chances could
return to the forecast by the middle of next week as it looks like
another cold front will approach the state.

FIRE WEATHER...
No major fire weather concerns are expected through the next seven
days. Minimum humidities will mostly remain above the 50th
percentile.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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