Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 022333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AND MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TAKE IT AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
BUT DID KEEP VCSH IN FOR THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE MCS REMNANT HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...WITH LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP HERE AND THERE. MEANWHILE...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
FOR EARLY EVENING...EXPECT ONLY LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NE
AND FAR SE CORNERS OF THE STATE.

MODELS ONCE AGAIN INITIATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SMALLER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT LESS ZONAL RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL NOTED...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR HIT AND MISS DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AND 70S FOR LOWS.

BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AND
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY RMN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
FCST TRENDS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WL CONT TO USE AN OVERALL
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS FCST.

THE PREV DISCUSSED CDFNT WL BE WORKING THRU AR ON SAT...WITH A CONTD
GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. RAIN CHCS WL BE
ON THE DCRS FM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN AS THE BNDRY SHIFTS FURTHER SWD
AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH POPS DCRSG A BIT QUICKER COMPARED TO
THE SLOWER GFS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

THE ASSOCD HIGH PRES RDG BEHIND THE CDFNT WL START TO BREAKDOWN AND
SHIFT EWD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW SLY WINDS TO BRING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE FA. RAIN CHCS BY THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE MORE DIURNAL/ISOLD IN NATURE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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