Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
807 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE UPDATED FOR CURRENT
CONDTIONS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

HAVE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE SO EXPECT TO SEE ONLY MEAGER
AFTERNOON CU TOM MORROW...WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT THE STATE AFTER 20Z. WITH SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE TOMORROW
MORNING THERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A RAGGED AND THIN LAYER OF MVFR
BASES HUGGING THE TERRAIN FROM LITTLE ROCK SOUTHWESTWARD. HAVE
SOME MENTIONED AT KLIT AND KHOT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE CIGS...JUST FEW-SCT BASES. ALSO HAVE TEMPO FOG
AT KADF BETWEEN 11Z-14Z DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OKAY...YOU KNOW THE DRILL. HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM HERE OR THERE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER HUMID...
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH
MONDAY.

WILL...FOR NOW...REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONGER RANGE MODEL DATA STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING
FCST TRENDS NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONT TO INDC A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPR RDG ACRS THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS RMNS
FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION. PREFER TO CONT TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND RMNS CONSISTENT
WITH CURRENT FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDC A FNTL BNDRY MOVG INTO
THE FA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ALSO CONT TO INDC THAT GULF MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCRS
EARLY IN THE PD AS A WEAK EASTERLY WV MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS WL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND SMALL CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR
TUE AND WED...ESP ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE FA. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL WL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  98  72 101 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  71  97 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  97  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  97  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  98  73  97 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  96  72  97 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      75  96  70  96 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  98  70  98 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  97  72  97 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  96  72  96 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  98  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  96  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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