Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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936
FXUS64 KLZK 291150
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
650 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION...29/12Z TAF CYCLE

Low clouds wl cont to affect much of the area this mrng, with
MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS impacting operations. The exception wl be ovr
NRN AR where VFR conds wl be noted. Increased low lvl mixing
later this mrng/aftn, wl allow for VFR conds to return to most
areas with as CIGS climb to the 4-5K ft range. Small chances for
aftn convection still in the fcst for SERN AR, with VCTS
mentioned. Low clouds wl again impact most areas late tngt, with
widespread MVFR CIGS expected. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 425 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Mostly clear skies and warm temps were noted acrs the FA early this
mrng. Light south winds have contd to bring increasing low lvl
moisture NWD into the region. With fcst highs today topping out in
the mid 80s to around 90, conds wl feel more like summer.

Models are still on good agreement this mrng with overall fcst
trends thru the end of the work week. A weak upper lvl storm system
is still progged to lift NEWD fm the Gulf coastal region today and
early tngt, with small chcs of diurnal convection possible ovr
mainly SERN AR.

Heading into later Fri and Fri ngt, conds wl bcm more unsettled acrs
the FA as a new CDFNT wl head towards AR fm the NW. Sctd to numerous
SHRA/ TSRA wl form upstream ahead of the FNT by Fri aftn, eventually
spreading SEWD into the N half of AR Fri ngt. Some strong/svr storms
wl be possible with the assocd line of storms, with damaging winds
the primary concern, along with locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

A frontal boundary is expected to be draped across Arkansas Saturday
morning...but its exact location is uncertain because its speed is
expected to be driven by rain cooled air from numerous thunderstorms
from Friday afternoon through Friday night. The intensity of these
storms will determine how fast the front moves across the state
Friday night into Saturday morning. Assuming the front stalls out
across Arkansas Saturday morning...the location of the front will be
the area most likely to see thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening. Most model guidance indicates that thunderstorms will
develop along the cold front in northwest Arkansas by Friday late
afternoon. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment is initially
favorable for a linear MCS or QLCS which should weaken as it moves
southeast across the state. Think that this should provide enough of
a push to take the cold front south into central or south Arkansas.
With that in mind...have a 50 to 60 percent chance of storms in the
forecast across the central and southern portions of the state.

Storms along and behind the cold front should keep skies cloudy over
much of the state on Saturday keeping temperatures down below normal
across much of the state. The front is expected to weaken while
lifting back to the northeast on Sunday. This will allow
temperatures to warm back up into the upper 80s on Sunday. Have a 30
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms focused over southern
portions of the state during the day on Sunday...lifting northeast
towards the Missouri border Sunday evening as the front lifts north.

Monday and Tuesday...The front may hang up near the
Missouri/Arkansas border...or simply dissipate by early next week.
Model guidance continues to advertise QPF near the Missouri border
each afternoon Monday and Tuesday...but there is little evidence of
the front in the model mass fields. Went ahead and kept a 20-30 POP
in the forecast across northern Arkansas for now due to the
persistence of model QPF...but would not be surprised to see these
POPs drop out of the forecast as we get closer to the time period.
This is really a mesoscale forecast challenge several days out...so
confidence is inherently low. Highs will likely be slightly above
normal with highs in the lower 90s with heat index values near 100
degrees each afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday...A slow-moving and somewhat weak upper
trough is expected to move southeast over Missouri towards Arkansas
mid to late next week. Assuming this verifies...it should provide
enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the peak
heating hours of the day each day. Kept POPs in the 20 to 30 percent
range for now as confidence in this solution is fairly low at this
time. If it verifies...will need to bump up POPs in later forecasts.
Assuming upper troughing is in the region...this feature should
prevent heat from building up...keeping temperatures near seasonal
normals in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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