Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230544
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE STATE. CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME THOUGH FOG IS AT HOT AND ADF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE IN ALL AREAS AFTER MID MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE OUACHITA RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  46  77  57 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         73  47  78  52 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  51  78  58 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  49  78  55 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  49  78  56 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     71  47  78  51 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  45  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  49  79  57 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  47  77  54 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  47  80  52 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  44  76  52 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  48  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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