Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212236 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57




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