Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 122356
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
556 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER
LOCALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH
A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE GROUND WILL YIELD SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN PARTS
OF THE OZARKS AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS SUNDAY. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH.

IT MUST BE NOTED THAT DATA HAS SHOWN GRADUAL WARMING WITH EACH RUN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. HAVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING
RAIN...AND THAT IS ABOUT IT.

MOST MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL HANG ON IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHERE MOISTURE
LINGERS...IT WILL BE FAR TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIP WILL CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BEING ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
ONCE AGAIN...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA JUST
AFTER THE EXTENDED TERM...LIKELY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  23  33  23 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         63  32  45  32 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       50  17  34  25 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  30  42  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  28  38  26 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     60  31  41  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      62  29  43  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  50  18  34  23 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        51  23  32  23 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  30  38  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  27  41  26 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         54  24  34  24 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      55  28  36  26 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56


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