Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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926
FXUS64 KLZK 172304 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
504 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will drop south through this TAF period...with SRLY
winds returning for Thu...though light and variable winds are
expected overnight tonight. VFR conditions should be dominant.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

Temperatures across much of the area were frigid this morning, with
some spots seeing the coldest air in over 20 years. A preliminary
review of morning low temperatures from a variety of sources
indicates that our Lead Hill COOP site gets the trophy for the
coldest reading with a low of -7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Otherwise, abundant sunshine was noted with high pressure over the
area. The one exception to this was some localized clouds and snow
flurries observed immediately southeast of Bull Shoals Lake,
where warm water at the surface interacted with cold northwest
winds moving over the area to produce a weak Lake Effect situation
for a few hours this morning. For tonight it will be cold but not
to the same extent as last night. However, with widespread snow
cover in place across much of eastern and far northern Arkansas,
temperatures will once again be locally influenced in a negative
way across these areas.

High pressure will contract and shift southeast over the next 24
hours which will provide southwesterly winds to the state and signal
the beginning of a warm up. Dry air will remain in place through
Thursday but clouds will begin to overspread the region and moisture
will increase through Friday. The flow aloft will be out of the
northwest initially across the area, with a weak trough expected to
make its way to the southwest of the state by Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The warming trend wl be in full swing acrs AR heading into the
upcoming weekend. South winds wl cont to increase ahead of a new
storm system organizing in the Rockies. Expect low clouds/moisture
to start increasing Fri night into Sat. Would not be surprised to
see areas of fog/drizzle form as the warmer air advects over the
much colder ground.

The aforementioned low pressure system is progged to track out of
the central Rockies early Sun, then eventually lift Newd towards the
Wrn Great Lakes region later Sun and Mon. The assocd CDFNT is fcst
to pass thru AR Sun night and early Mon.

Leaned more toward the slower ECWMF solution regarding the timing of
the front. Although, the GFS has come a bit more in line today.
Showers wl be likely, along with a few storms. Parameters still look
marginal ahead of the front for any organized severe storms. Drier
and seasonable conds return for Tue and Wed.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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