Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242306 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS
OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE
PRETTY MINIMAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED FOR THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS THE MAIN PLAYERS QUITE CLEARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST AND LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH COVERING THE NATIONS MID SECTION
ANCHORED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF ST JAMES BAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN SOME GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 THIS
EVENING.

TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOW BY A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. FRONT MAY BRING A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.
BOTH THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN
PLACE BUT TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING IN AIR OFF THE PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN DOES START TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WEST COAST
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TO ROUND
OUT THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED THE EURO NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. SOME GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LEAD TO SMALL POPS BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAVERS IN THE
STATE...THUS SMALL POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST.
&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





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