Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


Warm fnt wl cont to work NWS acrs the FA today. Low clouds wl cont
to advect NEWD into the area this mrng...with OCNL MVFR/IFR cigs
expected. Hi-Res model data cont to suggest convection wl form
this mrng acrs parts of CNTRL/NRN AR in the vcnty of the fntl
bndry. Kept vicinity mentioned in ovr CNTRL sections...with TEMPO
groups for mid to late mrng at KHRO and KBPK. The fnt shld lift
into MO late today. VFR conds wl prevail S of the warm fnt thanks
to incrsg SLY winds. /44/


SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Low lvl moisture has contd to advect NWD overnight acrs CNTRL and
SRN AR...where sfc dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s were common.
Hi-Res model data cont to indc convective initiation occurring
before daybreak as a warm fnt conts working NWD and an upr impulse
apchs fm the SW. Most of the activity is progged to affect mainly
the N half of the FA thru midday...with some lingering chcs this

Bulk of convection is expected to be N of the FA by tngt as the warm
fnt shifts into MO. Persistent SLY wind flow wl bring warmer and
more humid airmass back into the region thru the middle of the week.
High pres aloft is fcst to bld WWD into the Mid-South...keeping any
convection ISOLD in coverage and confined to the aftn and early
evening hours.

Long Term...Thursday Through Monday

The center of the upper ridge will be just east of the Natural State
at the start of the long term period...with AR in SRLY flow on the
WRN periphery of this ridge. With the main influence of the upper
ridge to the east...will see increased potential for diurnally
driven afternoon convection starting Thu. This will be the main
story through the weekend...with coverage of afternoon convection
increasing each day as heights aloft decrease as the upper ridge
shifts east. During this period...coverage of convection may be
enhanced with any upper disturbances that may lift over the region.
For now however...will have chance POPs mentioned during the daytime
hrs...then slight chance or lower during the overnight period.

Temps during the period will hover around normal for late
Aug...with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Lows will be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s. With dewpts generally in the 70s each
afternoon...heat index values will rise back into the upper 90s to
just over 100 during the long term period. There may be some days
where heat index values increase to over 105 during the peak heating
of the afternoon...and Heat Advisories may be needed.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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