Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 161832
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
132 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Calm and settled weather condns were noted acrs the FA early this
AM, w/ some patchy fog noted on recent sfc obs over Cntrl and N/Ern
AR. Patchy fog wl lkly cont thru the pre-dawn hours to a few hours
after 12Z, before eventually mixing out. Thru the remainder of the
day, light and variable winds and mostly settled condns wl be noted
as approaching sfc high pressure moves acrs the FA. Incrsg PoPs wl
be noted over S/Wrn and Srn AR later Sat evng/night via scattered
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. Precip activity should
stay confined to the Srn portion of the state overnight, and clear
out to the S/E by Sun mrng.
Sun, Nrly sfc winds along a larger lobe of Great Plains sfc high
pressure wl move thru the region, and cooler aftn temps wl be noted.
CAA wl be prominent thru the day and primarily overnight, as temps
are set to fall to the 40s for most. Portions of Nrn AR are expected
to see near freezing to sub-freezing temps on Mon mrng, w/ readings
b/w 29-33F, primarily w/in the Nrn two rows of counties.
Frost/freeze headlines resumed on March 15th, and wl lkly be
needed for Sun night/Mon mrng w/in the next few fcst packages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Cooler and drier weather is anticipated during the long term. Later
in the period, unsettled weather is expected to return to the region
as a warm up commences.
To begin, an upper ridge should be located across the Rockies, with
Nrly flow situated over the MS Valley region. At the surface, high
pressure will move towards AR from the Cntrl Plains. By Tuesday
morning, high pressure will settle over the state. With calmer winds
and clearing skies in place, radiational cooling should be efficient
Monday night/Tuesday morning. The current forecast has most
locations near or below freezing with the exception of portions of
Cntrl and SE AR (mid 30s in these locations). Temperatures are
anticipated to be coldest over portions of Wrn AR, AR River Valley,
into N and N-Cntrl AR; In these locations temperatures may range
from 26F to 30F. As a result, additional freezing headlines will
likely be needed for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday afternoon, surface flow will switch to the SW as high
pressure slides to the E. Synoptically, an upper trough invof the
Four Corners will eject across the Rockies on Wednesday. Weak
ridging locally will give way to a more zonal flow.
On Thursday and Friday, the approaching trough will lead to large
scale forcing for ascent and the development of showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs should begin to wind down by late Friday as the
system departs towards the E. Analyzing projected dew point
temperatures in this time range indicate moisture flux could be
limited, resulting in dew points only climbing into the 50s. Upper
level winds also appear on the weaker side as of this writing, thus
the current threat for severe weather appears low at this time.
Temperatures through the period will largely be made up of highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
For the 18Z TAFs...
Through the remainder of the daylight hours today, morning dense
fog and stratus has dissipated and VFR conditions with generally
light and variable winds will hold. After dark, rain showers are
expected to build in from the southwest and spread northeast over
much of central and southern Arkansas. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible however scattered rain showers are expected to be more
common, so simply have VCSH in the central and southern area TAFs
for now. Do not expect dense fog or low ceilings to redevelop
tomorrow morning, but would not be surprised with some temporarily
reduced MVFR or even IFR conditions in rain showers overnight
through early tomorrow morning. A return to VFR condtions with no
rain is expected by mid-day tomorrow.
Cavanaugh
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 49 62 35 51 / 10 0 0 0
Camden AR 54 65 40 58 / 70 30 0 0
Harrison AR 44 58 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 52 65 39 55 / 50 10 0 0
Little Rock AR 54 67 40 56 / 30 10 0 0
Monticello AR 56 64 41 56 / 70 40 0 0
Mount Ida AR 52 67 38 55 / 50 10 0 0
Mountain Home AR 45 60 31 49 / 10 0 0 0
Newport AR 51 61 35 50 / 10 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 54 63 39 55 / 50 20 0 0
Russellville AR 51 66 36 55 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy AR 50 63 34 53 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart AR 54 62 39 52 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...66