Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241731 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to current trends and adjust timing of precip
expected. No major changes needed.

Have also updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some sites are seeing some MVFR CIGs...along with some breezy SRLY
winds. Rainfall has held off so far this early afternoon...but
this will change as a line of SHRA/TSRA develops over ERN OK and
NE TX...and moves east through the state this afternoon through
the overnight period. Some SVR storms may be seen...with damaging
winds the primary threat. Flight rules as low as LIFR may be seen
under the most intense convective activity. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will have moved east of the area by after
12Z Sat...though some lingering TSRA could be seen at LLQ...and
some patchy SHRA across NRN AR as moisture wraps around the parent
low pressure rotating over the region. Widespread improvements
will hold off until beyond this TAF period.

&&

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 334 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
today to Saturday with a strong storm system as it moves through
the region. Then with an unsettled weather pattern to affect the
region, chances of rain remain in the forecast Monday and again
later in the week. Winds will be elevated today out of the south
and a lake wind advisory

Currently, the developing storm system out west over the western
Plains was forming convection in the region, while closer to AR a
south wind flow was helping gradually increase moisture levels.
Dewpoint temperatures across AR were in the lower 50s south, to
the mid 40s central to north. Temperatures were mild with mainly
the 60s. Some mid and high clouds were seen spreading into the
region. Aloft, the upper low pressure system was over the east-
central Rockies, while a high pressure ridge over the southeast
US.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Convection chances will come up significantly today as the storm
system tracks to the east, affects AR mainly from noon to tonight,
then pushes out of the state Saturday. The strong system will
produce showers and thunderstorms, with the potential of strong to
severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has most of AR in a
slight risk of severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat
with a possible line of thunderstorms developing as the upper lift
from the system moves through AR. Isolated large hail and
tornadoes also may be seen, but are expected to be lower threats.
Models are consistent with timing of the main convection line,
with the storms reaching western AR from in the afternoon, central
areas evening to around midnight, then western areas past
midnight to early Saturday morning. Max instability, moisture
convergence and lift are forecast to be along the line of storms.
Behind the main strong to severe line of storms, some lighter
convection will still be possible until the upper low moves
farther east of AR later Saturday. Saturday night, some lingering
slight chance of showers mainly over northern AR, but by early
Sunday, dry weather will be seen. Rain amounts overall with this
system are expected to be from around half an inch to around an
inch and a half. Isolated higher amounts may be seen, if storms
move over the same area for an extended period of time.
Temperatures will be warm today ahead of the system and be in the
70s to a few 80s, then cool a bit back to the 60s to 70s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Models appear to be in generally good agreement in the synoptic
scale and much like the past few nights, continue to show an
overly progressive pattern. However, The devil remains in the
details with the models continuing to show enough timing and
location differences that a blend of solutions is warranted.

The period initiates with the upper level low responsible for the
unsettled weather in the short term period lifting out but another
upper trough is on its heels. After a dry Sunday, aforementioned
system will pass to the north of the state Sunday night and early
Monday and drag another boundary across the state. While system does
not appear to be nearly as strong as its predecessor, a few storms
could be strong, especially over the west.

Weak upper level ridging returns briefly for Monday night and most
of Tuesday before you guessed it, another upper trough approaches.
This system will be located over the four corners by late Tuesday
before moving into west Texas by midday Wednesday, closing off as it
does. Models then in general agreement moving this system northeast
of the state by the end of the period. Even though we are talking a
week out, system will need to be watched closely as it kicks out as
it could pack quite a punch.

Temperatures through the entire extended period will average above
normal for late March. MAV/MEX numbers look good and are generally
accepted.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

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