Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 281646 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1146 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Running a bit behind with the morning update here. The most
significant change to the forecast for the remainder of the day
was to lower rain chances overall. The upper low responsible for
the rain over the last day or two is now well removed from
Arkansas, residing practically over central Kentucky as of 11am
this morning. All things considered...feel that rain chances
across much of the state are lower than previously thought and
have lowered PoPs accordingly.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016)
Scattered convection continues across mainly southwest and
eastern sections of the state as an upper level low lifts out. The
precip will become more scattered in nature as the day progresses
with the best chances at KLLQ. A new disturbance tonight will
bring rain chances back to parts of the state. Generally VFR
conditions are expected with the exception of IFR conditions this
morning due to fog at a few of the terminals.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Short Term...Today through Friday night
Scattered and generally light shower activity has developed over
the past hour or so, mainly over the eastern parts of the state.
Activity is resulting from the weak upper low and associated trof
axis currently located along the Mississippi River. Both features
will continue to lift out early this morning with precipitation
chances remaining but decreasing during the day. As such, the best
chances of seeing rain this morning will be over the east.
All short term high resolution models continue to show another round
of convection this afternoon. The best chances will be over the
south and southeast as another shortwave moves through the broad
northwest flow aloft, aided by a frontal boundary dropping down from
the north. Airmass remains very moist and moderately unstable with
PWATS in excess of 2 inches over the southeast half of the state
which is actually a little lower versus this time yesterday.
Temperatures will be similar to what was seen on Wednesday with
cloud cover and precipitation around and will average very close to
normal for late July.
For the remainder of the period, the area will remain in northwest
flow aloft with several impulses moving through. As such, there will
be a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms with the
northeast half of the state having the best chances of seeing
beneficial rain. These impulses will interact with remnant mesoscale
boundaries and daytime heating to provide a focus for development.
Slow moving storms could result with light winds aloft and locally
heavy rain remains possible. Temperatures Friday will be a touch
warmer with lower precipitation chances.
Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday
The long term period will begin with continued high pressure aloft
over the Four Corners area and southeast U.S. The weak upper level
trough over the midwest and plains will continue on Saturday. With
Arkansas being between the two highs, and a weak stationary front
near north Arkansas, expect unsettled weather and rain chances
Saturday into Sunday. This should lead to an MCS moving through the
state Saturday night. The upper ridge is expected to return to
Arkansas late Sunday. This ridge will continue to build over the
state through the early part of next week. This would put the storm
track north of Arkansas for next week...resulting in lower rain
chances and warmer temperatures...through Wednesday.
Without being directly beneath either ridge Saturday, temperatures
will be closer to normal values, or even cooler, with more cloud
cover. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 80s to mid
90s...then mid 90s by Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.