Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251709 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.Aviation

VFR flight conditions are expected overall in the next 24 hours with
some ceilings. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon to evening over AR but coverage will be low
and will only include VCSH in Tafs. Winds will be south at 5 to 10
mph this afternoon to evening. Later tonight, a frontal boundary and
system will gradually move into AR and bring a bit better chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state. Patchy areas of
MVFR are expected with the heavier showers and storms. Winds will
switch to the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with the front. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Earlier forecast update to remove patchy fog as it has dissipated.
Today a partly to mostly sunny day is expected with warm
temperatures from the upper 80s to low to mid 90s. The surface and
upper high pressure systems have moved east, and a cold front is
slowly moving east with convection associated with it over eastern
OK and KS to north TX. A few light showers were noted earlier over
southeast AR, but dissipated quickly as they moved north. Afternoon
will see more isolated showers with a few thunderstorms across AR,
especially over western AR. Short-range models remain consistent
with weakening the overall convection trends with the system as it
moves into Ar later today, tonight and Monday. Current forecast has
this trend. Otherwise, late morning update will only fine tune
elements. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016)

Short Term...Today through Monday Night

Models rmn in good agreement this mrng that a strong CDFNT wl be
sweeping thru the area...ushering in much cooler and drier conds for
the new work week. However...before that...wl see another summerlike
day acrs the FA today as SLY winds push highs in the mid 80s to mid
90s. Best rain chcs today wl stay mainly to our W...but some
activity wl eventually affect the WRN counties later today.
Elsewhere...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA wl be possible this aftn and have
included small POPS to account for this.

The CDFNT is fcst to enter NWRN AR later this aftn...eventually
sliding SE of the state Mon morning. Data cont to indc that SCTD
SHRA/few TSRA wl accompany the FNT...mainly post-fntl. With the main
upr support passing well N of AR...no severe weather is expected.

North winds wl usher much cooler/drier airmass into the region Mon
and Mon night. Clouds wl dcrs on Mon with highs mainly in the 70s
and lower 80s.

Long Term...Tuesday through Saturday

The gist of the long term forecast...dry, fantastic fall weather.
That is all.

For those wanting a little more insight though, keep reading. In the
wake of the much talked about cold front swinging through during the
end of the short term period, the upper level pattern will amplify
greatly as a large upper trough carves out a home across the eastern
United States. Anchored over the Great Lakes region, this trough
will produce northerly flow across the nation`s mid section Tuesday
and Wednesday before it kicks off to the eastern seaboard due to a
building upper ridge over the plains. This setup will push a couple
of waves of high pressure and continental air into Arkansas. The
first will have moved into the state by the start of the long term,
with another cold front and reinforcing shot of dry/cool air moving
in on Thursday. Kept the forecast dry across the forecast area as
the Thursday front will have little to no moisture to work with and
rainfall from the front from later tonight and Monday will have
moved out of the area by the start of the long term period. Given
the latest model data and forecast upper level pattern, went ahead
and lowered expected highs and overnight lows throughout the long
term. This wasn`t a significant change, but did lower both by
probably a degree or two across the forecast area. Will likely see
afternoon temperatures rebound slightly from Tue to Wed, but even
then the warmest spots will only make it into the low/mid 80s Wed
afternoon. Otherwise mid to upper 70s will be seen in the northern
parts of the state, with upper 70s to low 80s in the south.
Overnight lows will be firmly in the 50s during the long term, with
the potential for some upper 40s in sheltered valleys in the north
Tue night.

From a weather perspective fall will finally have arrived this
coming week. And if you ask this forecaster, it couldn`t have gotten
here quick enough.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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