Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232308 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
608 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



VFR conditions should again be dominant for most sites...with
mainly just some high clouds. ADF may again see some fog with
MVFR or lower flight conditions possible near sunrise. A weak
front will drop south into the NRN sections of the state Mon
morning...with mainly just a wind shift expected for the NRN
terminals. Elsewhere...generally light and variable winds



SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Contd to see a stream of high lvl clouds acrs the region this aftn
thanks to W/SWLY flow aloft. Meanwhile...sfc high pres was centered
to the SE of AR...resulting in SWLY sfc flow. After another cool
start to the day...mid aftn temps rebounded into the 70s.

Not a whole lot to discuss on the short term. The upr flow wl turn
more NWLY thru Mon as the upr rdg blds to our W. This wl allow a
weak CDFNT to drop into the FA late tngt and Mon...with just a wind
shift expected. The bndry wl wash out heading into Tue...with a
return of a S/SWLY sfc wind flow as a new storm sys organizes in the
Plains States. This sys wl affect AR just beyond this pd.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday

A weak shortwave within the zonal flow aloft, along with the
associated weak cold front, will move across the state Wed and Wed
night. The front is expected to stall across central AR and lift
northward by late Thu. This will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across all but the southern portions of the state with
the best chance for rain occurring across the northern portions of
the state/CWA. Significant rainfall is rainfall is not expected with
this round of showers with total QPF averaging less than a quarter

The front will have little effect on temperatures. Could be a couple
of degrees cooler on Thu, but will primarily just abate the warming
trend and will act to continue the mild temperatures through the
weekend. Perhaps another weak cold front will affect the area on
Sunday, but with little or no precip expected and with minimal
impact on temps.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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