Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222314 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
514 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain chances will continue for a few more hrs before the precip
activity shift east by later this evening. Breezy NW winds will
then develop through the evening into the overnight hrs as
pressure gradient tightens. Mainly MVFR or temporarily lower CIGs
are expected overnight for most sites...but will see improvements
after sunrise Mon as CIGs lift. Winds will also relax by this time
frame...with generally less than 10 kts expected for much of Mon...and
VFR conditions return.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 220 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Short term...Tonight through Tuesday night.

Overall the sensible weather situation is being handled well by both
our current forecast and the short term models that remain in
generally good agreement. As such, the forecast will follow their
lead this afternoon.

Low pressure clearly seen on water vapor imagery, visible satellite
imagery, radar and any other imagery available to look at. Center of
circulation currently over southeast Arkansas and continuing to pull
away to the east. Plenty of moisture still wrapping around the low
and producing generally light rain but the overall precipitation
trend has been slowly waning.

Will still need to hold on to rain chances for several more hours
until the system pulls away and a pre-first period will be added
to this evening forecast package. There is still an outside chance
of thunder until sunset and forecast will reflect this although
its high unlikely it will occur. Any lingering precipitation will
be east of the Mississippi River by midnight.

Models continue to show the pressure gradient behind the front
increasing with time and becoming fairly substantial this evening.
Will leave the current lake wind and wind advisories in place
although the onset maybe a little delayed for most of the forecast
area.

Drier air will move in behind the system and with the pressure
gradient relaxing, temperatures will be a little cooler tonight and
Monday. However, northwest winds will gradually take on a more
southerly component as surface high pressure rapidly shifts eastward
by late Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing to above
normal again. A weak frontal passage is expected late in the period
with little fanfare as it moves through.

Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday

We start out the extended period in the immediate wake of a dry cold
front. A dry, stable and cool pattern setting up for the entire
extended period as a consistent pattern of westerly and northerly
flow aloft will also bring cooler, near normal temps for this time
of year. Light west to northwest surface winds will result in low RH
values. A reinforcing cold front will move through the area late Sat
with little fanfare.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday FOR Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Drew-
Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-
Pike-Polk-Pope-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-
Woodruff-Yell.


Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday FOR Arkansas-Desha-Jefferson-
Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski.

&&

$$


Aviation...62


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