Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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522
FXUS64 KLZK 240149 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
845 PM CDT MON 23 2016

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Some convection making it into AR this
evening, especially in the SW along a moisture influx area and some
upper level energy. Weaker convection was noted over western to
central AR which continues to weaken as it moves east. SW storms
were also weakening as they move into AR. Tonight shortwave energy
moves through AR, while south wind flow continues to gradually
increase moisture levels. 00z KLZK sounding had a precip water value
of 1.3 inches surface to around 15k feet, with a SE surface flow. A
low chance of light convection is forecast overnight. Lows tonight
will be milder, with mainly 60s. Late evening update will only fine
tune a few elements. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 635 PM CDT MON 23 2016/

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions, with ceilings, are expected in the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will be seen, with areas of MVFR with
showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over western AR. Lighter
showers or just light rain will be seen over mainly central to
eastern AR. Winds will be NE to SE at 5 to 10 mph this evening and
overnight. Winds will variable at 5 to 10 mph around showers. On
Tuesday, ceilings will lower with additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible, again mainly over western to central AR.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
An MCV...analyzed over northeast Oklahoma at 19z...is expected to
continue to move eastward through the evening hours. Scattered
convection is associated with this system...with the stronger
activity supported by greater instability.

Overall available convective energy is expected to increase during
this period. Low level warm advection...along with developing mesoscale
features...will support at least scattered convection through the
rest of this period. Additional MCS activity is likely across the
central/southern plains during this period...which also may
affect the forecast area while weakening as they approach.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Extended term still looking to be rather wet with POPs in virtually
every period.

Shortwave over the Southwestern US is still on track to progress
eastward and lift into the central plains by this weekend. The
forecast area will remain under a southwesterly flow aloft, and
several impulses are anticipated to ripple across the area.

At the surface high pressure will generally remain to the east of
the area, keeping a moist southerly flow in place. Disturbances
aloft, instability from daytime heating, and outflow boundaries will
be focal points for convection during the time frame.

With all of that said, highest POPs will be in the Thursday-Saturday
time frame as the shortwave progresses eastward, and POPs will
be notably lower Saturday evening thru the end of the extended term.

With the southerly flow in place, and dewpoints in the 60`s, it`s
going to feel a lot more like late May than it has recently. Max
temps will be back to normal, or a bit above.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Camden AR         66  87  71  88 /  20  20  20  20
Harrison AR       61  79  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  84  71  85 /  30  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR  65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     65  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      66  82  70  83 /  30  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  61  80  66  85 /  30  50  30  40
Newport AR        63  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     65  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  20
Russellville AR   64  83  69  84 /  30  40  30  30
Searcy AR         62  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53



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