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000
FXUS64 KLZK 091707 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND
SW OVERNIGHT...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...THINK SOME FOG WILL AGAIN BE SEEN FOR MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY MON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
DROPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME WITH A RELATIVELY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS OR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED
TO MAINLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. PATCHY FOG ALSO SHOWING UP ON A
FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGH FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BUT ANOTHER
MILD TO WARM DAY IS EXPECTED.

COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM VERSUS THE GFS AND A BLEND OF FORECAST MODELS WILL BE USED.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BUT EVEN SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL BE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY AND MOVE TO
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WEST COAST.

DRY AIR WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY ACROSS
ARKANSAS. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
JUST BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO COME TOGETHER LATE IN THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THESE WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  40  69  47 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         57  44  71  52 /  20   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       57  37  70  47 /  10   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    53  41  71  50 /  10   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  41  70  50 /  20   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  45  71  53 /  20   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      53  40  71  49 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  39  70  46 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        53  40  68  48 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  44  70  52 /  20   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  38  70  48 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         52  41  70  49 /  20   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      52  42  70  50 /  20   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62