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000
FXUS64 KLZK 150551
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...15/06Z TAF CYCLE

Showers/scattered thunderstorms will overspread Arkansas from the
northwest tonight and Sunday morning. Precipitation will become much
more spotty by Sunday afternoon. Rain will be triggered by a cold
front that will cross the state.

Ahead of the front, VFR conditions will be noted this evening with
some mid/high clouds. Late tonight and Sunday morning, spotty MVFR
conditions are expected in the northwest half of Arkansas due to low
clouds/visibilities in downpours. Behind the front, clouds will thin
out Sunday afternoon, with VFR conditions statewide.

Winds will be south/southwest this evening at 5 to 15 mph, shifting
to the northwest in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains after midnight.
The wind shift to the north/northwest will occur elsewhere on
Sunday, with wind speeds from 10 to 15 mph and gusts over 25 mph in
places.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Warm conditions are ongoing across the CWA this Sat
afternoon...with temps in the 80s to low 90s. The S/SW winds will
continue to keep warm conditions across the area through this
afternoon...with some near record highs possible for the middle of
Oct.

Attention turns to the NW where some convective activity is ongoing
along and ahead of a cold front draped over KS. This front will
progress SE into AR tonight...entering NW AR just after midnight.
Temps should remain fairly mild ahead of the front...with
temperatures overnight in the 70s ahead of the front. As the front
progresses SE into Sun morning...expect temps to drop significantly
with the NW wind and precip. Highs on Sun will be early in the day
for most areas...possibly around midnight for some locations in the
NW. Temps will drop down into the 50s and 60s behind the
front...only rebounding slightly in the afternoon hrs Sun.

As for precip potential...best POPs will be across the NWRN counties
just after midnight...with some scattered to widespread SHRA/TSRA
expected. As the front progresses SE...the coverage of convection
will decrease overnight into the daylight hrs Sun...with most of the
upper level energy staying north of the state. Will see scattered
SHRA for central sections...with an isolated TSRA still possible Sun
morning. SERN sections of the state will see more isolated to widely
scattered activity...with only chance and slight chance POPs
mentioned. Given the timing of the FROPA...do think any SVR
potential will be very limited...with some marginally severe storms
possible across NWRN sections of the state.

The cooler and drier air mass will filter into the state Sun into
Sun night...with below normal conditions expected for the rest of the
short term period. Lows by Mon morning will be in the upper 30s to
upper 40s...with highs Mon afternoon in the 60s to low 70s. This
cooler pattern will persist into the long term period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

Upper level northwest flow will send a surface high pressure into
the region, and be centered to the northeast of AR. Cool and overall
dry air will be in place across the area. This pattern will hold
through much of the week, while a gradually warming trend will be
seen. Some increasing clouds will be seen Thursday and into the
weekend, but at this time, no major weather system is forecast to
bring enough moisture and lift to develop rain and convection. So
the forecast will stay dry with the warming temperatures. Highs will
start close to normal values, then by the end of the week will be
back in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$