Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011540 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



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