Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 131631
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1131 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IS ERODING LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THIS TREND IS WORKING SOUTHWEST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS TO HOLD ON LONGER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTH WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE SUN WILL BE NOTED.
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ALONG WITH EXTENDED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

LARGELY MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING...BUT THAT
WILL CHANGE MARKEDLY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
ARKANSAS...AND WILL BE A COMBINATION OF EROSION FROM THE NRN EDGE
AND ALSO SOME MODEST MIXING/EROSION FROM THE MEAGER DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR. AS SUCH...WHEN CEILINGS START IMPROVING
THEY SHOULD DO SO AT A FAIRLY RAPID PACE. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE NRN TERMINALS AROUND 15Z...TO KLIT
AND KHOT/KADF AROUND 20Z...AND FINALLY TO KLLQ BY 22Z-23Z. THE
ONLY OTHER FLIGHT CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 18KT MOST ANYWHERE...BUT THE
PRIME CANDIDATES WILL BE IN THE DELTA REGION NEAR KPBF AND KLLQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WAS GAINING
SOME MOMENTUM TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM ARKANSAS. THIS WAS
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING...WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

SOME CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. DRY/COOL AND COMFORTABLE
AIR WILL BE NOTED AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...READINGS WILL MODIFY
SOMEWHAT MONDAY/TUESDAY.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS
FROM THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...WITH ANY SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ARKANSAS WILL LIE BENEATH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. BY THURSDAY THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND THE STRONG TROUGH
WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DURING THAT TIME ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE OUT WEST. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
INTERACTION THERE WILL BE BETWEEN THE WESTERN INCOMING TROUGH
AND...WHAT IS NOW...TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
BAJA PENNISULA OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. AS SUCH...MADE NO REAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOCALLY THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COUPLE SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH IN
NW UPPER FLOW AND SPARK OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND MAY SEE SOME
MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH THAT DAY FOR HIGHS. FROM THERE TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL EACH DAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND REINFORCING SHOTS
OF DRY AIR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  51  75  57 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         68  56  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       62  48  73  57 /  10   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  56  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  55  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  49  74  56 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        66  50  75  57 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     67  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  53  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  52  76  58 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      67  54  78  59 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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