Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 021754 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPARSE SO WILL EXCLUDE FROM TAFS ONCE AGAIN.
OTHERWISE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY MORNING. INCLUDED SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBY AT KHOT AND KADF
WHERE IT WILL BE MOST LIKELY. FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CU OF FEW-SCT040 OR THEREABOUTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF COAST
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AND SE AR
WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT. SOME LIGHT RAIN DID MAKE IT TO SE
AR...BUT NOT HAS MOVED MAINLY EAST. FORECAST DOES HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OVER THE SE AND THE REST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS. (59)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

UPPER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CONVECTION AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREE WARMER FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO
START THE PERIOD...SOME CHANGES ARE COMING. A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL WOBBLE TOWARD ARKANSAS...AND
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS.
INITIALLY...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NONEXISTENT ON SUNDAY. BY
TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  71  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  71  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       89  68  90  69 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  73  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      91  70  93  70 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  69  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        92  71  94  71 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  95  71 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         93  71  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      93  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64


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