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000
FXUS64 KLZK 030324 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
924 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO POST DENSE FOG ADV FOR MUCH OF THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...OR GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EVENING SHADE...TO CLINTON...TO OARK. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP FOG
IN PLACE...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE OVERNIGHT. DEWPT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES ARE FAIRLY LARGE...SO IT WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER IF FOG WERE TO FORM. IF NECESSARY...WILL ADD THESE COUNTIES
AT A LATER TIME IF/WHEN THIS AREA SATURATES. OTHER THAN SOME
REFINEMENTS FOR NEAR TERM GRIDS...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

AVIATION...

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS BY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL BUT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WIDE RANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL DEFINED...EARLY SEASON ARCTIC
AIR MASS TO APPROACH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WEAK CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANAFRONT TYPE WINTER PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AFFECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS EARLY IN THE EVENT. HOWEVER...WINTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD AND DRY...THEN SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
AR...THEN BACK TO DRY AND COLD FOR MONDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...AS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE COMING
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH AR
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES OUT OF THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ANY REMAIN WINTRY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE STATE...BUT
USHER IN COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE TEENS OVER NORTHERN AR...TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTH.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER NORTHERN AR...WHILE
AROUND 30 CENTRAL...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...A SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...AS UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS BACK MOISTURE TO
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POSSIBLE AND
COMBINING WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD SURFACE TEMPS...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTH SHOULD MOSTLY SEE SNOW...WITH THE WINTRY MIX OVER CENTRAL
AREAS...THEN EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY. ON MONDAY A DRY AND COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED.

OVERALL CONFIDENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW...BASED ON THE
EXACT TIMING...TEMPERATURES...AND AMOUNTS OF WINTER WEATHER. THERE
IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT SOME PARTS OF ARKANSAS WILL SEE SOME
WINTER PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND BE
PREPARED FOR A SECONDARY SHOOT OF WINTER WEATHER AFTER AFTER THE
FRIDAY EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  67  55  67 /   0  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         47  72  61  74 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       47  66  49  58 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  68  56  69 /   0  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  69  57  70 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     53  72  62  74 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      48  67  55  67 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  66  51  61 /   0  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        43  68  56  68 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     48  71  59  73 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  68  52  67 /   0  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         42  68  55  68 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      49  70  58  71 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SHARP-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

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