Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201724 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
through the evening hours, with most of the activity expected
across northern areas near KBPK/KHRO. Otherwise, mostly VFR
conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally
be less than 10kts and near calm overnight. Can`t rule out some
patchy fog tonight in areas that see some rainfall this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Some patchy fog at ADF will dissipate over the next hr or
so...with VFR conditions expected to dominate through the rest of
this afternoon/evening for all sites. Some isolated afternoon
convection may be seen...but coverage too limited to mention in
TAFs at this time. Winds will be generally less than 10kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Quiet conditions are ongoing across most of the CWA early this
morning...with just some isolated SHRA ongoing across NERN sections
of the CWA. There is also some patchy fog...mainly across SWRN
sections of the area. Diurnally driven isolated convection will be
possible again this Sun afternoon...with the overall threat for SVR
WX expected to remain low. However...an isolated strong storm may be
seen...with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats possible.

Near normal temps and humid conditions will result in some
oppressively hot conditions across a large portion of the state this
Sun afternoon...with heat index values near or just over 105 degrees
for most locations across central and SRN AR. Will continue with the
Heat Adv for the previous included counties...with just adding a few
more to the list. Heat index values across NRN sections of the state
should remain in the mid 90s to just over 100. Similar temps will be
seen for Mon...though humidity levels are forecast to be a tad
lower.

Additional SHRA/TSRA may be seen on Mon...with the best chances in
the late more into the afternoon hrs. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible...with an isolated strong storm
possible. Given this precip potential...cloud cover will be in the
30-70 percent range or generally partly sunny/cloudy. While not
ideal for eclipse viewing...at least for all of the area...there may
be enough breaks in the cloud cover for folks to experience at least
a portion of the partial solar eclipse across the LZK CWA.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a cold
front pushes in to the region. The boundary will push south of the
region late Wednesday and Thursday, as cool high pressure moves in.

As the upper ridge will reposition itself to the southwest, the
front will hit it, and stall. By the end of the period, the ridge
will nudge to the northeast a bit, which will push the front back
toward Arkansas, and bring increased rain chances back into the
forecast.

So, one more day of temperatures slightly above average and 100-
degree heat indices, and (hopefully) that`s "it" for a while. The
remainder of the period, especially Friday and Saturday, will give
us below average temperatures--in some cases by five degrees or
more. Pretty nice for late August, if you ask me. And, for those of
you, like me, who are counting...it will be less than a week until
climatological fall.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...67



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