


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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220 FXUS64 KLZK 092043 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 343 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 + After the widespread rainfall and cloud cover of yesterday, today started off somewhat cool and cloudy only to give way to mostly sunny skies and a warm afternoon across Arkansas. What happened today is a microcosm of what we can expect this week with temperatures warming up a bit each day through the weekend into early next week. + Each afternoon will feature a threat for showers and thunderstorms, however the coverage of storms is expected to remain isolated each afternoon and early evening through the middle of next week. These storms are expected to pose the same threats of any common summertime Arkansas storm. Locally damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding will be the primary threats, but these threats are expected to remain limited in area and magnitude. Cavanaugh && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a scattered stratocumulus deck over the state while surface observations put 3 PM temperatures in the upper 80s for most locations. Owing to the widespread rainfall over the state yesterday the day today started out unusually cloudy keeping temperatures down in the 70s through much of the morning hours. Just after noon however the intensity of the early July sun angle won out, scattering out the clouds and bringing temperatures up about 10 degrees to our current readings. Unlike yesterday and Monday, regional radars were mostly clear with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms noted over the northeast portion of the state. Over the next 7 days, the weather pattern impacting Arkansas is expected to be fairly stagnant. High pressure aloft will generally remain in control of our weather pattern here although a shortwave trough or two will make a run at our northern border here this weekend. Overall this weather pattern will promote a gradual increase in temperature each day as we head into early next week. By the time we reach early to mid next week the build up of heat will probably bring us into excessive territory resulting in a need for daily heat advisories as the build up of heat and constant levels of humidity will eventually bring heat index values up over 105 degrees, especially for central, southern and eastern portions of the state. Every day in the forecast through Wednesday of next week (as far out as our forecast currently goes) we will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day. For every day besides Saturday and Sunday, this activity is expected to remain isolated in nature meaning most locations will remain dry. For those locations that see a storm, those storms could put down a quick inch or two of rain in a short time resulting in locally heavy rainfall and localized flood impacts. Storms in this hot and humid environment also grow to be quite tall, and when they collapse, they tend to put down some strong winds, so locally damaging winds from microbursts will also be a daily concern. For the most part however, no organized storms or widespread severe weather or flooding hazards are expected over the next 7 days. For this weekend, as mentioned above, we expect to see a couple of shortwave troughs move down towards the Missouri border both on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. This will result in an increase in the coverage of storms across northern Arkansas Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The impacts of these storms are expected to be similar to any other day in the forecast, but the simple presence of additional storms means more opportunity for people to experience those impacts. Afternoon bouts of heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be more common over the northern portions of the state where the topography is quite a bit more hilly than points south and east. Heavy rain in topography also opens the door to some flash flooding, and we will have to handle this on a case by case basis to assess the threats. Folks planning on camping this weekend should have at least 2 ways to get weather information just in case something organizes locally. Things aren`t expected to get too bad this weekend, but it`s always best to be prepared just in case. Cavanaugh && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 For the afternoon TAFs... VFR conditions are generally expected over the next 24 hours with light winds at all area TAF sites. This mornings extensive low- level cloud cover is not expected to redevelop tomorrow morning due to the lack of showers and storms across the state today and because drier air aloft has worked its way over the region. Cavanaugh && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 71 92 73 94 / 0 10 0 20 Camden AR 71 93 73 96 / 10 20 10 10 Harrison AR 68 90 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 72 93 72 95 / 10 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 75 92 75 95 / 10 20 10 20 Monticello AR 74 92 75 95 / 10 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 71 91 73 94 / 0 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 68 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 73 92 75 95 / 0 10 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 73 92 73 95 / 10 20 10 20 Russellville AR 72 93 74 95 / 10 10 0 10 Searcy AR 72 92 73 94 / 0 10 0 20 Stuttgart AR 75 92 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...AVIATION...Cavanaugh