Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 162009
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
209 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS IS BRINGING COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THERE IS A CHANCE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN...WITH THE
NAM CURRENTLY THE COLDEST AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ARKANSAS WILL SIT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
OVERCAST DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEN DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK SE OF ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS IN BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. AGAIN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKNASAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIP WL BE NOTED ACRS ERN AR SAT MRNG AS STORM
SYS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE MID SOUTH SUN
INTO MON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE E...WITH CONTD COOL CONDS. SLY FLOW
WL EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER ON MON AND TUE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODIFY
SOME. A NEW STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FA HEADING INTO TUE.
THE ECMWF IS INDCG A MORE ORGANIZED SYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONTD
WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW AND INDCD LOW CHC POPS OVR THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  44  33  44 /   0  10  60  30
CAMDEN AR         33  51  39  49 /   0  10  60  40
HARRISON AR       27  44  33  42 /   0  10  60  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  47  37  46 /   0  10  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  47  37  46 /   0  10  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  39  49 /   0  10  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      29  47  36  46 /   0  10  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  43  32  42 /   0  10  60  30
NEWPORT AR        29  44  34  44 /   0  10  50  30
PINE BLUFF AR     33  48  37  47 /   0  10  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  46  35  45 /   0  10  60  30
SEARCY AR         30  45  35  44 /   0  10  60  30
STUTTGART AR      32  46  37  46 /   0  10  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44




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