Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 170439 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1040 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
It will be mostly clear tonight into Friday morning, with some
increase in mainly high clouds Friday afternoon. This will happen as
a storm system approaches from the southwest.
Winds tonight will be southwest at 3 to 7 mph. Winds on Friday will
be southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
An upper level ridge over the high Plains is providing Arkansas with
a northwest flow today. An upper level low is also over Mexico. The
ridge will move east tonight and the low will move to the northeast.
The ridge moves into the Great Lakes Region Friday while the low
moves through north Texas. The low will move slowly across Arkansas
Models are in good agreement in the short term. Clear skies will
continue through tonight with high pressure in control but shifting
east late. Clouds will begin increasing on Friday. The low pressure
will pull moisture north out of the Gulf of Mexico and will increase
rain chances over Arkansas. The best rain chances will be across the
eastern half of the state Friday night into Saturday. However,
amounts should be light. The system moves east of the state by late
afternoon or early evening Saturday, so the rain will be ending as
High temperatures look pretty similar for Friday and Saturay, in the
mid to upper 60s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s
and warmer Friday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Another day, another cutoff low. (That`s how that expression goes,
Elongated upper ridge will follow the departing upper low on
Saturday night and Sunday, as split flow again sets up over the
western CONUS. The ridge will move east on Monday, with southwest
upper flow developing and pushing a surface boundary and associated
low over the Gulf back to the north a little bit. The southwest
flow, along with uplift north of the surface boundary will allow for
precipitation to develop and move into the region Monday afternoon
and night. Coverage should be scattered in the north, and a little
more widespread in the south, given the closer proximity to the
surface system and approaching upper low. With the upper low
present, there will be enough elevated instability for
thunderstorms, though coverage should remain isolated at best.
Any showers/storms will wind down on Thursday, as the elongated
ridge to the east breaks down and the upper low moves into the
eastern Gulf. Another surface boundary will approach the region, but
will likely not affect the area until beyond the end of the period.
Think below average temperatures are coming? Think again. (I figured
I owed it to you to phrase it differently today, since I`ve been
saying the same thing for three straight days).
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 40 67 48 66 / 0 10 30 30
Camden AR 40 68 51 70 / 0 10 40 30
Harrison AR 41 68 47 67 / 0 10 20 20
Hot Springs AR 39 67 49 67 / 0 10 30 30
Little Rock AR 40 68 49 67 / 0 10 30 30
Monticello AR 41 68 51 69 / 0 10 40 30
Mount Ida AR 39 67 49 67 / 0 10 20 20
Mountain Home AR 39 69 47 68 / 0 10 20 20
Newport AR 39 67 48 66 / 0 10 30 40
Pine Bluff AR 41 68 50 68 / 0 10 40 40
Russellville AR 38 68 48 67 / 0 10 20 20
Searcy AR 38 67 48 67 / 0 10 30 30
Stuttgart AR 40 68 50 67 / 0 10 40 40
Short Term...51 / Long Term...57