Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 311718 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME RAIN...PATCHY FOG AND MAINLY OVERCAST SKY WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL SITES...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SEEN. WHILE NOT
EVERY SITE WILL SEE CONTINUOUS RAIN...HAVE AT LEAST MENTIONED VCSH
IN ALL SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER ANY RAINFALL...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI
MORNING...BUT SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE FAR SRN SITES INTO FRI. EVEN IN AREAS WITH NO
PERSISTENT RAIN OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME
LATE ON FRI.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY...ENHANCING UPLIFT INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUING RAIN
CHANCES. THOUGH A FEW PLACES COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATER TODAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FIRING UP...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GOING TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE SAFE TO SAY THAT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S...AND EVEN SOME AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MAY STAY IN THE 60S. IF THIS IS INDEED THE CASE...THERE
COULD BE SOME RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET...POSSIBLY TYING
OR EXCEEDING MONTHLY RECORDS SET EARLIER IN JULY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE HIGH
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY
NORTH ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  61  84  66 /  50  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         71  63  81  66 /  90  50  30  10
HARRISON AR       74  59  83  63 /  50  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  61  80  67 /  70  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  62  82  67 /  70  30  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  62  80  66 /  80  50  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      69  59  79  63 /  70  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  61  84  64 /  50  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        75  62  86  64 /  50  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  63  81  66 /  70  50  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  61  83  65 /  60  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         74  60  83  65 /  60  30  20  10
STUTTGART AR      72  63  80  66 /  60  40  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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