Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 281114 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Patchy areas
of fog with MVFR and isolated IFR are expect to form this morning.
After sunrise, the fog will gradually thin and dissipate. Winds will
be light and variable or northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.
Convection will be more isolated today, and mainly affect central
and western areas. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 344 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, although mainly in the afternoon to evening,
forecasting temperatures, and finally any influence on the region
from a possible tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently surface and upper level high pressure are over the
region, while low level moisture levels remain high with dew point
temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Do expect some
patchy fog this morning over AR. Convection on Saturday was more
focused over north central, western to northwestern AR, while
very little in the east. The upper level high pressure system to
the east of AR did build a bit more west, and helped keep lift
over the western and northwest areas of AR. Expect a similar
situation today. Seeing some light showers forming over far
southern AR with movement toward the northwest.
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
The forecast will start with patchy fog across AR, with a slight
chance of showers and isolated thunder over parts of southern and
western AR. Will expand the slight chance of convection in the
afternoon period to much of AR, except for far southeast AR.
Movement of storms will be northwest around the upper high
pressure system. Highs will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s,
while heat index values will only reach around 100 degrees. Sunday
night will be mainly dry with lows in the 70s. Monday will again
see just a slight chance of convection, and mainly in the
afternoon to early evening, as the upper high pressure system caps
much of the convection potential, especially in the east. Dewpoint
temperatures will lower a degree or two, and hence heat index
values will lower just a bit too on Monday.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
An upper ridge will be over the southern U.S. through much of the
period. On Wednesday, an upper trough dives into the northeast and
the upper high shifts to the west. The ridging will continue over
the center part of the country through Saturday.
The high pressure will keep rain chances limited over Arkansas
during the long term period. A cold front will move into north
Arkansas late Wednesday night and bring better chances of
thunderstorms to the north. Otherwise, isolated afternoon
thunderstorms can be expected. The front should move out of the
state Friday afternoon. Near normal temperatures are expected
through the period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 90 73 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
Camden AR 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
Harrison AR 88 69 87 69 / 20 10 20 10
Hot Springs AR 92 73 90 73 / 20 10 20 10
Little Rock AR 93 75 91 75 / 20 10 20 10
Monticello AR 93 75 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
Mount Ida AR 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
Mountain Home AR 89 71 88 70 / 20 10 20 10
Newport AR 91 73 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 93 73 92 73 / 20 10 20 10
Russellville AR 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10
Searcy AR 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10
Stuttgart AR 93 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
Short Term...59 / Long Term...51