Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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182
FXUS64 KLZK 082251 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
451 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING...THOUGH INTENSITY
LEVELS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUE. SOME FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN
FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS MON EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON RADAR IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BIGGER
STORY FOR TODAY WAS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE LOW RH VALUES
ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS ROUTINELY GUST OVER 30KTS WITH RH VALUES
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. TWENTY FOOT
WIND VALUES WERE HELD JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND THUS HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING.

WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...YET STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY...AND MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT...IT IS BORDER LINE AND WILL DEFAULT TO THE MID SHIFT FOR
THE LATEST DATA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE STATE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW ON TUESDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT...KEEPING THE WILD FIRE
THREAT ELEVATED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE TERM. GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN QUITE A BIT FASTER. FOR NOW
I AM GOING WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX
TO THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MOST LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THAT COULD CHANGE AS THE MODEL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN-SNOW AND SNOW-
SLEET MIX POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THIS COULD CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  41  22  42 /  20   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         29  51  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       23  39  21  42 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    28  49  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  48  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     30  48  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      27  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  23  40  20  41 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        25  41  22  41 /  20   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     29  47  27  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   25  47  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         24  44  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      28  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62



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