Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016


Isolated showers and thunderstorms have been developing across the
region late this morning. Expect this to continue through the
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to climb into the mid and
upper 90s. The Heat Advisory continues this afternoon through 9 PM Thursday.




Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Some isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible through this have mentioned some VCTS at all sites as coverage and
location remain uncertain. Otherwise...expect dominant VFR
conditions through the period.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

With the center of the upper level high pressure just to the west of
the state...will continue to see hot and humid conditions through
the short term period. The forecast each day will be similar to what
was seen the last couple days...with highs in the 90s to around
100...and heat index values exceeding 100 for most of the CWA.
During the hottest part of the day...heat index values should exceed
105 deg for all but the NWRN counties...and a heat adv remains in
effect as a result. This heat adv will continue into Thu afternoon/early
evening as well due to similar conditions expected.

Chances for precip will remain low also...but cannot rule out any
afternoon convective activity. The best chances will be during the
afternoon to early evening hrs...and have only mentioned slight
chance pops for isolated afternoon convection. Any storm that does
form could produce some strong winds...and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Sprawling ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant
weather feature affecting not only Arkansas` weather for much of the
long term but much of the country`s as well. For Friday and Saturday,
continued hot weather will remain in place across the forecast area.
With dewpoints holding in the lower 70 degree range, heat index
values will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria.

By Friday and into the weekend a fairly substantial upper level
shortwave trough will come onshore across the Pacific NW. This
feature will help compress and break down the upper ridge,
as it travels east across the northern US. At the same time in the
H500 flow, a westward moving wave will be approaching the SE US from
the Atlantic. This feature combined with the breakdown of the ridge
will help contribute to an increase in rain chances across the state.
Additionally, high temperatures will begin to trend down as well.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.



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