Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270602
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
102 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...27/06Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION WAS CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN AR ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONT WORKING SWD THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS...IMPACTING MAINLY
KLLQ AND KPBF WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...CDFNT WL CONT TO DROP SWD THRU AR THRU SAT MRNG. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DVLP BEHIND THE FNT...PRODUCING VFR/MVFR CIGS.
INCRSG NWLY WINDS WL BRING DRIER AIR/DCRSG CLOUDS LATER TODAY AND
TNGT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME
WEAKENING TOWARD SUNRISE. ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED.

BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY. AS FRONT SAGS
TO THE SOUTH...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH A GENERAL
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RAIN EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL IMPOSSIBLE NEAR AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROFFING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER VERSUS WHAT THE AREA HAS
EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK.

UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED.
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS. EVEN WITH THIS WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT...FLOW
NEAR THE SFC WILL REMAIN SRLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. HOWEVER...KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY EACH DAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED
UNTIL THU NIGHT. EVEN THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO KEEP POPS FROM
GETTING TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN AT BAY FOR NOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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