Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 180531 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016


Overall VFR flight conditions will be forecast, with only isolated
MVFR ceilings with fog will be possible. Winds overnight will hold
formation to very isolated. A low level jet has set up and wind
shear will be possible at all Taf sites until surface winds increase
on Tuesday. Surface winds will be south at 5 to 15 mph. Some gusts
to around 20 mph will be possible on Tuesday. Upper level high
pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the
period. A weak frontal boundary will move into far northwest
Arkansas during the day Tuesday but only some mid to high clouds
will be seen. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 907 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/

Latest surface observations indicate temperatures very close to
forecasted overnight lows in some areas. Temperatures will be
adjusted downward based on latest models and aforementioned
observations. Winds also adjusted somewhat but the remainder of
the forecast looks fine. All updates out.


SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

As the upper ridge holds strong, Tuesday will be another
unseasonably (near record breaking) day as far as temperatures go.
Will keep the post trending below with the record highs for
October 18th. Winds, though remaining southerly, will be a little
less gusty decreasing slightly the wildfire danger.

On Wednesday the upper ridge will slide east over ther northwest
Arkansas by the end of the period but only some mid to high level
moisture is expected. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated
except for brief MVFR conditions around sunrise.
Southerly flow is expect
southeastern CONUS and allow some forward progression with the
surface cold front over the plains. Although still above average,
Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler as cloud cover builds ahead
of the frontal boundary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday Night

Wednesday night...The consensus of model guidance is that a
relatively strong cold front will move southeast across Arkansas...
accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
There will likely be some convection near the leading edge of the
front... and it is this convection that we will have to watch
closely for any potential severe weather impacts. Because the front
is expected to move across Arkansas after sunset...the chances of
severe storms are somewhat dampened by the loss of daytime heating.
Regardless...there will be sufficient deep layer shear for organized
storms along the cold limited instability (CAPE) will be
the primary limiting factor for severe storms. If severe storms are
observed...they will likely be organized in small line segments
owing to the strong forcing for ascent in the general vicinity of
the cold front. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail
are the primary expected hazards at this time. Behind the front...
the chance for severe storms drops to nearly zero.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue behind
the front as the positively tilted upper trough will be swinging in
behind the front spreading large scale forcing for ascent over
Arkansas after the front has moved off to the southeast. Scattered
showers and storms will continue through Thursday morning and then
will dissipate from northwest to southeast through Thursday
afternoon as much drier air filters into the state behind the front.

Behind the front...highs on Thursday are only expected to climb into
the lower 70s for most locations...which is around 20 degrees cooler
than highs across Arkansas early in the week. Lows will fall into
the 40s across the state for Friday and Saturday mornings...
resulting in our first real taste of a cool autumn morning this
season. Highs will remain in the 70s with lows in the mid to upper
40s all weekend under mostly clear skies and low humidity. It looks
to be another great weekend across the Natural State.

Next week...Temperatures will warm up a bit as we head into early
next week. However highs look to remain in the upper 70s to lower
80s at this time. Behind the cold front the forecast looks to remain
dry with no significant weather systems approaching the state in the
extended forecast. Largely zonal flow aloft should prevent us from
heating up to summer like temperatures early next week.

Listed below are a few locations where highs are once again
forecasted to be within a few degrees of records.

Location     Record High Temperatures
                      Oct. 18
Little Rock         91 in 2005
Jacksonville        90 in 2006
North Little Rock89 in 2005
Russellville    90 in 2005
Mount Ida       90 in 1953
Harrison        95 in 1926
Batesville Apt    88 in 2006
Pine Bluff        95 in 1926
Monticello        94 in 2005
Booneville        93 in 1963
Calico Rock         89 in 1924
Conway    91 in 1953
Mtn Home        90 in 1953
Sheridan      91 in 1953
Star City       92 in 2011
Newport            91 in 1953
Clarksville 2 N  90 in 1953
Malvern            92 in 1953
Searcy            92 in 1953
Stuttgart        91 in 1910


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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