Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220818
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
318 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
today, and then the bigger event Friday to Saturday. Any severe
storm threat over AR with the Friday to Saturday storm. Temperature
forecast will vary greatly with cooler to start, then a warm up to
Friday ahead of the stronger storm system.

This morning, a shortwave was moving across northern AR and
developing showers and thunderstorms. The area was moving east to
southeast, while short range models gradually weaken the area as
it moves east of AR later today. Also, a cold front was sagging
south over AR, and was located over southwest AR. High pressure
was building into AR from the northeast, and will bring drier and
cooler air to the area. Winds were northeast behind the front,
while south ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will start with a good chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over northern AR, while a lower chance of rain south
of the area. Southern AR will see little rain. The shortwave is
forecast to continue to move east-southeast and gradually weaken
through today, and forecast will show this trend. The risk of
strong to severe storms will be very low and isolated with the
convection today. Temperatures will be much cooler over AR today
as compared to Tuesday. Highs will be from the 50s over the north,
60s central, to the 70s south. Mainly dry tonight, with only a low
chance of rain over far northwest AR, while lows in the 40s to
lower 50s. On Thursday, a southeast wind flow returns to AR as the
surface high pressure moves east, while upper high pressure
ridging will build into the region and help temperatures warm back
to the 60s northeast, 70s central to around 80 in the south to
southwest. Thursday night, continued dry conditions with warmer
lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Friday rain chances begin in the
west ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Overall the period looks to be fairly progressive with several
systems to contend with. There are the usual timing and intensity
issues between the models but overall they remain in decent enough
agreement that a blend of solutions seems prudent.

Period initiates with ridging over the southeast United States and a
strong upper level low/trough in the vicinity of southeast Colorado.
The surface reflection and attendant cold front will be located in
western Kansas. As the system moves to the east all signs continue
to point to convection developing in a rather favorable environment
in advance of the actual boundary. Convection is expected to develop
into a linear MCS and move into the Arklatex during the evening and
head east through the night. The primary concern will be strong
damaging winds but a large hail and a tornado threat can not be
discounted.

The line of thunderstorms will be east of the Mississippi River by
Saturday morning but the actual boundary will still be over the
central part of the state. The upper low itself will be lifting
through the state with a continuing chance of precipitation as a
result. After a brief respite on Sunday, precipitation chances
return Sunday night and Monday as another upper trough lifts
through. This system does not appear to be nearly as strong as the
one expected Friday/Friday night.

Tuesday will start off dry but some precipitation chances return
during the day as the next strong upper system moves into the desert
southwest. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  43  68  59 /  60  10   0  10
Camden AR         71  51  81  62 /  20  10   0  10
Harrison AR       53  41  70  56 /  60  20  10   0
Hot Springs AR    65  47  77  61 /  30  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  62  47  76  61 /  30  10   0  10
Monticello AR     69  52  80  63 /  20  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      65  47  77  60 /  30  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  53  41  69  58 /  60  10  10   0
Newport AR        56  43  69  60 /  60  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     67  49  78  61 /  20  10   0  10
Russellville AR   58  46  74  59 /  40  10   0  10
Searcy AR         57  45  72  59 /  50  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      63  48  76  61 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...56



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