Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 170822
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
322 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Some isolated, and likely thin, fog formation will be possible
across the region this morning before insolation comes into play.
Due to the very isolated nature of the fog, chose to leave out
mention in grids for now. Will update if necessary.

An upper level ridge is currently centered immediately west of the
CWA and will strengthen and move overhead through the next few
days. GFS and HRRR (for Monday) seem a bit too warm and mix out
the near-surface layer more than what we typically see in an
Arkansas summer day. (A Td of 60? No Way.) The NAM and SREF
ensembles seem to have a bit more realistic temperature/humidity
solution, so have sided closer with them.

Temperatures will be in the mid 90s for much of the state, with
the exception of the Ozarks and higher Ouachitas, which will max
out in the upper 80s. Heat indices will be within a few degrees
of either side of 100, so a heat advisory will not be likely.

As far as precipitation... not a whole lot. With subsidence from
the aforementioned ridge and no real lifting mechanism, the
chances for precipitation in the short term (and long term too)
are quite dismal. The best chance for any development will be in
the afternoons across far southern Arkansas, closer to the
periphery of the upper ridge.


&&

.LONG TERM....Wednesday Through Sunday Night

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the region during the long
term period as the upper level ridge to the west slides east over
the mid south. This will result in above normal temperatures...with
highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Chances for rainfall will
remain low as well...with the potential for isolated afternoon
convection very low.

Heat index values will also increase...with max heat index values in
the upper 90s to just over 100. There could be a day or two  during
the middle to late week where heat index values may get to or exceed
105. However...looks like low level moisture levels will start to
slowly decrease with the lack of any precip expected. This will
result in lowering dewpts a bit...though upper 60s to low 70s dewpts
will still be seen. In any case...with several days of near Heat Adv
criteria...will need to keep an eye on if any Heat Adv may be needed
as these days get closer...especially with the persistent heat.

By late in the period....the upper level ridge will weaken
slightly...with temps potentially a deg or two cooler for the coming
weekend. Even so...temps will still be slightly above normal...and
heat index values in the upper 90s to just over 100. Precip chances
will remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  74  93  74 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         95  76  94  75 /  10  10  10   0
Harrison AR       92  70  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    92  76  92  75 /  10  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  94  75  95  76 /  10  10  10   0
Monticello AR     93  75  92  74 /  10  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      92  73  91  73 /  10  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  94  72  93  73 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        92  73  93  74 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  75  93  75 /  10  10  10   0
Russellville AR   94  73  93  75 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         93  73  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      92  74  93  75 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...Brown / Long Term...62


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.