Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 291748
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY
AFFECT KBPK AND KADF...DISSIPATING SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...AND PICKING
UP OUT OF THE NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER
FORECASTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...FORECAST ATTENTION WILL
FOCUS ON AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT...AND ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...LATE IN THE PERIOD.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR TO
ISOLATED IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MT HOME AND ARKADELPHIA
AREAS AND IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST
THIS MORNING...BECOMING NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 90S EVEN
POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW BECOMING SW
OVER AR AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITS INTO THE PLAINS.
AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS AND BEGIN SHIFTING EAST...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASING AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES. HAVE INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
NWRN COUNTIES FOR WED AND WED AFTERNOON...THEN AS THE COLD
FRONT...SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE CLOSER...POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY FOR THU. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THU NIGHT. AS A RESULT...BEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY THU AND THU NIGHT. POPS WILL THEN
DECREASE LATE THU NIGHT ACROSS THE NW...AND FURTHER EAST/SE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A THREAT FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES IN
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SFC FEATURES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE DATA TO SEE HOW ANY SVR WX
THREAT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF AR FRIDAY AM...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
AR. BREEZY AND BECOMING COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE AREA THE REST OF
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER NW FLOW WILL BE INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NW AR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S...WITH
SOME 80S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  58  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  63  88  68 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       83  58  84  59 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  62  87  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  62  88  66 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     88  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      84  60  85  64 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  58  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        86  57  87  61 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     88  60  88  66 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  86  63 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         88  59  87  63 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      87  58  87  65 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.