Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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174
FXUS64 KLZK 241520 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1020 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Morning fog has dissipated, and expect
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures today. Highs will reach the
upper 80s in the north, while low to some mid 90s central and south.
The upper high pressure ridge has moved a bit more east and now
centered over the TN and OH valleys, as well as the surface high
pressure with a south wind flow into AR. Yesterday did see a bit
more light convection in the afternoon to early evening over
southern and central AR, and will expand slight chance of area over
southern AR for afternoon to early evening. Moisture levels have
come up a bit with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s.  Winds are light and variable or light south currently, and
expect a southeast to southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph late morning
through evening.  bit more east and now centered over the TN and OH
valleys, as well as the surface high pressure with a south wind flow
into AR. Late morning update will only fine tune a few elements. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 652 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/
.AVIATION...

Overall, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is
some patchy MVFR fog affecting KBPK, and some LIFR fog at KADF but
expect a return to VFR flight categories at each of those sites by
14z. Some isolated TSRA will be possible in southeast Arkansas
this afternoon and evening. Whatever develops could drift close to
KPBF or KLLQ, but confidence in the coverage of storms is far too
low to include in TAFs at this time. On Sunday a front will be
drawing close to Arkansas from the northwest. Current forecast
guidance suggests that precipitation from this front should not
affect KHRO until after the end of the 12z TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

The main forecast concern for the short term period is the frontal
passage and associated rain chances forecast for later this
weekend. An upper low situated over the Colorado and Utah border
this morning will eject into the northern plains later today.
This feature will phase with another shortwave dropping out of
Canada, allowing high pressure to push south through the high
plains and push the associated cold front into Arkansas by Sunday
night. Rain chances across the forecast area will increase during
this time.

With the ridge still in place overhead, today will once again be a
warm day with highs well above normal and generally in the low 90s.
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms could occur in the southeast
part of the state this afternoon but much like yesterday any
convection will be very isolated in nature. Have some slight chances
in the southeast to account for this.

Sunday will be slightly cooler as the upper trough approaches and
the ridge loses influence across the region, but still above
normal and especially so in the delta region of the state. Mid 80s
are expected in the northwest on Sunday, but low 90s will be seen
in the lower terrain of eastern and southeastern Arkansas Sunday
afternoon. Have rain chances ramping up across the forecast area
Sun afternoon as the front approaches. However, despite increasing
PoPs rainfall amounts still look to be on the low side for this
event. Models show some upper level energy sagging south from
Utah/Colorado to form a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest
during the day Sunday while the bulk of the energy ejects into the
northern plains. The result is less forcing over Arkansas as the
front moves through and less rainfall. Still think that widespread
rainfall looks like a good bet but amounts appear like they will
be less than perhaps hoped for earlier this week.

Nevertheless, the pattern change is coming and an end to
abnormally hot weather will come to an end during the long term
period.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Models have certainly come into better agreement this mrng with
overall fcst trends. The CDFNT wl be working out of SERN AR Mon
mrng...with lingering small rain chcs noted ovr the FA. Rain chcs wl
cont to diminish fm the NW on Mon as much cooler and drier airmass
filters into the region.

Sfc high pres wl dominate acrs the Mid-South thru the rest of the
pd...resulting in dry conds. Coolest readings wl be noted Tue/Wed as
the center of the high passes acrs the FA..with daytime highs mainly
in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Airmass wl begin to modify later in
the week as the sfc high shifts SE of the area and upr heights sloly
incrs...with temps returning to seasonal norms.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64



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