Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KLZK 152349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018


Gusty SW winds continue, but should subside shortly after sunset.
An approaching front will cross overnight, bringing SHRA to most
terminals, and IFR or worse cigs appear likely at all terminals
after 16/08Z with some minor vsby restrictions also likely. Winds
shift from W to NW and eventually N behind the front with gusty
conditions likely tomorrow afternoon as well. Improvement to MVFR
or better anticipated late in the period, but confidence is low.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018)
Short Term...Tonight Through Saturday

Gusty S/SW winds brought springlike conds to AR this aftn. Mid aftn
temps were in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Lingering low clouds
over central AR held readings down several degrees compared to other
locations. Have already seen a record high tied this aftn, with a
few locations still having the chance to tie or break a record high
before the day is done.

The warm conds wl come to an abrupt end by this time on Fri. A new
CDFNT is fcst to drop SEWD thru the state late tngt and on Fri. The
bndry is expected to enter NW AR arnd midnight, push into central AR
arnd daybreak and out of SE AR by midday. Based on this timing, have
adjusted temps trend accordingly, with most locations seeing their
high reached early Fri. As rain chances go, data cont to show most
of the rain wl be post-frontal and have indicated that in the PoP
trends tngt and Fri.

The aforementioned CDFNT wl stall to the S of the area late Fri, so
will see clouds/lingering rain chances over the S half of AR Fri
aftn and evening. The active upper pattern wl bring yet another
storm system into the area Fri night and Sat. Moisture wl once again
surge NWD into AR, with rain overspreading the FA. Could see a brief
wintry mix over far Nrn AR early Sat mrng, but no impacts are
expected as air temps are fcst to rmn abv freezing. Due to the
progressive nature of this system, rain chances wl again decrease fm
the NW by Sat aftn as a new CDFNT pushes thru AR.

Long Term...Sunday Through Thursday

It will be very unsettled in the long term as cool air masses from
the north mingle with a persistent warm/moist southwest flow.

The period will begin with a front stalled along the Gulf Coast, and
an Arctic high exiting to the east. As the high exits, the front
will begin lifting to the north, and this will bring warmer
conditions and increasing moisture.

It will be somewhat cool on Sunday, but temperatures will be well
above average Monday and Tuesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during this time frame.

A new surge of colder air will arrive from the Plains late Tuesday
into Wednesday. Good chances of rain will continue, and temperatures
will be on the way down. It may get cold enough for a brief period
of freezing rain in parts of the Ozarks Wednesday night/early

Through Thursday, widespread two to four inch rainfall amounts are
in the forecast, and there could be higher totals in places. If the
highest amounts are in the northwest, would think the flood/flash
flood potential would be somewhat low given existing drought
conditions. That will not be the case farther southeast, with well
above average rainfall in the last 60 days and no drought.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


Aviation...COOPER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.