Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 181147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST ACRS NRN AR THRU A GOOD PART OF THE
MRNG HRS...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS NOTED. KEPT VCSH IN AT KHRO AND
KBPK FOR A FEW HRS AS LGT RAIN DISSIPATES. PATCHY BR WL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AFTN CONVECTION TRENDS CONT TO
WARRANT JUST A MENTION OF VCTS IN THE FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THEN WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AREA SUNDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO
ARKANSAS.

DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. SO FAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF OUR CWFA BUT
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT FORM...AND NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE FCST AS HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE MID
SOUTH. DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WL BE THE RESULT...WITH BLW NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED. SOME MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS WL OCCUR HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-MARION.
&&

$$





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