Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 190508 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THERE IS
CONFLICTING SUPPORT FOR BOTH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LEVELS OR A
CONTINUATION OF LIFR OR IFR CATEGORIES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF LOW CIGS AND VSBY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
UNFAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 20Z...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE CIGS LOWER
ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME -RA OR -RADZ AT
KADF...KPBF...AND KLLQ...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AFTER 16Z FRI. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE OVER AR WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING WAS SATURATED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AR. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS.
(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         42  48  38  52 /  10  70  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  42  33  47 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  46  35  50 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  45  36  49 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     41  47  38  50 /  10  70  50  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  46  33  50 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  42  33  48 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     40  45  37  49 /  10  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  46  35  50 /  10  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         36  43  33  48 /  10  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      39  45  36  49 /  10  50  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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