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000
FXUS64 KLZK 200740
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
240 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Quiet conditions are ongoing across most of the CWA early this
morning...with just some isolated SHRA ongoing across NERN sections
of the CWA. There is also some patchy fog...mainly across SWRN
sections of the area. Diurnally driven isolated convection will be
possible again this Sun afternoon...with the overall threat for SVR
WX expected to remain low. However...an isolated strong storm may be
seen...with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats possible.

Near normal temps and humid conditions will result in some
oppressively hot conditions across a large portion of the state this
Sun afternoon...with heat index values near or just over 105 degrees
for most locations across central and SRN AR. Will continue with the
Heat Adv for the previous included counties...with just adding a few
more to the list. Heat index values across NRN sections of the state
should remain in the mid 90s to just over 100. Similar temps will be
seen for Mon...though humidity levels are forecast to be a tad
lower.

Additional SHRA/TSRA may be seen on Mon...with the best chances in
the late more into the afternoon hrs. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible...with an isolated strong storm
possible. Given this precip potential...cloud cover will be in the
30-70 percent range or generally partly sunny/cloudy. While not
ideal for eclipse viewing...at least for all of the area...there may
be enough breaks in the cloud cover for folks to experience at least
a portion of the partial solar eclipse across the LZK CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a cold
front pushes in to the region. The boundary will push south of the
region late Wednesday and Thursday, as cool high pressure moves in.

As the upper ridge will reposition itself to the southwest, the
front will hit it, and stall. By the end of the period, the ridge
will nudge to the northeast a bit, which will push the front back
toward Arkansas, and bring increased rain chances back into the
forecast.

So, one more day of temperatures slightly above average and 100-
degree heat indices, and (hopefully) that`s "it" for a while. The
remainder of the period, especially Friday and Saturday, will give
us below average temperatures--in some cases by five degrees or
more. Pretty nice for late August, if you ask me. And, for those of
you, like me, who are counting...it will be less than a week until
climatological fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  74  92  76 /  20  10  30  10
Camden AR         98  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  10
Harrison AR       91  70  89  72 /  20  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    93  74  92  74 /  20  10  30  10
Little Rock   AR  94  75  93  76 /  20  10  30  10
Monticello AR     95  74  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
Mount Ida AR      94  72  93  73 /  20  10  30  10
Mountain Home AR  91  71  91  73 /  20  10  30  10
Newport AR        93  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     93  74  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
Russellville AR   94  73  92  74 /  20  10  30  10
Searcy AR         93  73  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
Stuttgart AR      93  74  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57