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738
FXUS64 KLZK 240910
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
410 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A cold front was situated south of Arkansas this morning. And
while dry air was initially lagging the front by a fair amount, it
is now easily filtering into the state from north as is evident by
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s now making their way into
northern and even central parts of the state. Model guidance over
the last couple of days was peristent in developing some elevated
convection in the post-frontal air mass of southern Arkansas
through the morning and even early afternoon hours. However this
trend is no more and now the latest high-resolution is now showing
a rain-free forecast for the rest of the day. Currently have some
20-30 PoPs in the forecast in southern Arkansas through the
morning hours. Will let that ride for now and see how radar trends
progress through the end of the shift. If nothing develops, will
likely issue an amendment to the forecast to remove rain.

Otherwise, a dry forecast is on tap for the short term period. A
broad upper trough over the eastern half of the United States will
push high pressure into Arkansas from the north. This upper level
flow pattern combined with surface high pressure will produce dry
weather across the region, with temperatures holding around or
slightly below normal. Most notably humidity levels will be held
at bay, resulting in a much more comfortable feel to the days.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Saturday

The extended period will start with a ridge of high pressure over
the southwest United States, and a northwest wind flow aloft
locally. A weak system will ride the flow into the region late
Monday, and this will result in small chances for thunder in the
northeast half of Arkansas.

As the week progresses, the ridge to the southwest will become less
pronounced. The flow aloft will become more zonal. There may be some
ridging over the southeast states by the end of the week. At the
surface, a cold front will slowly work toward the region from the
Plains, but will probably hang up to the northwest.

Given the pattern, there will be a slow warming trend as the week
progresses, especially at night as moisture levels gradually
increase. Temperatures will start off below average, but will be
closer to normal by the end of the week. In general, it will be dry
through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday as the aforementioned
front approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         82  65  86  63 /  40  10  10   0
Harrison AR       80  57  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    83  63  85  61 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  84  64  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     82  66  84  63 /  40  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      82  61  85  60 /  20  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  82  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        83  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     82  64  84  63 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   84  61  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         83  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      83  63  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...46