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000
FXUS64 KLZK 101500 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AR
MOVING SE AND WEAKENING. TSTORM COMPLEX OVER NE OK SLOWLY MOVING ESE
WITH SOME WEAKENING...BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF IT TO HOLD TOGETHER AND
BRING NW AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL SOME CHANCES OF RAIN. ON THE MAP
THE FRONT HAS BECOME MORE WASHED OUT...WITH SOME ANALYSIS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WHILE IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. TEMPS WERE ALSO A FEW DEGREES LOWER
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A MOIST LOWER SURFACE
TO 8K FEET LAYER..WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES...WHILE
ABOVE 8K FEET QUITE DRY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION DEVELOP
TODAY...AS WELL AS WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THE WASHED OUT
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH THE MAIN AREA IN THE
NORTHWEST A BIT HIGHER. CIRRUS CLOUD BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION IN
THE NW WILL STREAM OVER AR TODAY...AND WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S...WHILE AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

.AVIATION...10/12Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL CONT TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN AR THIS MRNG IN THE
VCNTY OF A STALLED FNTL BNDRY. KEPT A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT KADF
AND KLLQ. PATCHY BR WL BE NOTED OVR THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO COMPLEX
OF STORMS WORKING INTO NERN OK ATTM. MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC THE
REMNANTS OF THIS SYS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR BY
THIS AFTN. DUE TO FCST UNCERTAINTIES...KEPT PROB30/VCTS IN THE
FCST FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE MRNG HRS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...ALBEIT MUCH MORE SPARSE WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE. EXPECT
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN DIE OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT IS JUST AS MORNING TIME CONVECTION IS DYING
DOWN IT WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A FRONT SITUATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF FORT
SMITH OVER TO JUST NORTH OF SEARCY AND MEMPHIS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS TOMORROW...THERE IS NO
CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR SO JUST HAVE SOME BROAD
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

THE REAL STORY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMING
TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE UPPER 90S BY
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A MORE REASONABLE
MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...NOW SHOWING HIGHS AT OR BELOW
97...VERSUS TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS 95-97 SEEM MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN 100 GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINFALL. STAYED THE COURSE IN THAT RESPECT...CAPPING
HIGHS AT 97 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS FOR SATURDAY. PUT IN SIMILAR
VALUES ON SUNDAY BUT STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AS THE MAJORITY ARE
STILL SHOWING A HIGH BIAS I BELIEVE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO INDC ANOTHER UPR LVL PATTERN CHG
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPR RDG WL SHIFT BACK WWD AS AN UPR LOW PASSES
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE
CNTRL STATES WL BRING A NEW CDFNT SWD THRU AR DURG THE LATTER PART
OF THE PD.

THIS LEADS TO THE MAIN FCST CONCERN...THAT BE THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT THRU THE FA. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST
WITH THE FROPA THRU THE FA COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. STUCK WITH
A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING FROPA LATE MON AND TUE.
SCT POPS WERE MAINTAINED AS WELL WITH DATA SUGGESTING A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP WL BE POST FNTL. MOS TEMPS SEEMED REASONABLE THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$