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000
FXUS64 KLZK 051744 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...

OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY.
SEVERE ICING WILL BE FOUND IN CLOUDS. IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. COLD AIR
WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SPREAD THE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE NORTH THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW AND SLEET. OVER THE SOUTH MAINLY RAINY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE NW TO N AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF SNOW....FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
WITH LATE DAY MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. (57)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

BY NOW...THE MAIN PLOT LINE HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY DISCUSSED...THAT
BEING THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS GOING TO UNFOLD ACROSS ARKANSAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SO FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...I WILL JUST HIT THE NOTABLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS FOR THIS EVENT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND IS
NOW SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF IN THE EAST AND ARKADELPHIA AND TEXARKANA
IN THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL NOT
GET HUNG UP IN THE OZARKS AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND
SHOULD SPILL THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN THE WEST...AND
AROUND THE OZARKS AND INTO THE DELTA IN THE EAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AND FREEZING RAIN...FOR REFERENCE SAKE...SHOULD MAKE IT
TO LITTLE ROCK VICINITY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS OPPOSED
TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS MONTICELLO AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE SLEET AND POSSIBLY THE SNOW
LINE FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

WITH A QUICKER FALL OF TEMPS...AND THUS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPRESSIVE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD BE ALONG/NEAR A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY MT IDA THROUGH CONWAY AND EAST TO BETWEEN SEARCY AND
BATESVILLE. THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LITTLE
ROCK...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIX...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY NECESSITATE A SIMPLE
WINTER STORM WARNING. HOWEVER STRICT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAR OUTWEIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO IMPACTS...ANY
SLEET ACCUMULATION THAT WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON WE DECIDED TO
CONVERT PART OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ICE STORM WARNING.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LITTLE
ROCK...COULD VERY EASILY SEE AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. FROM LITTLE ROCK EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THOUGH
STILL NOTHING TO SCOFF AT. LITTLE ROCK WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW
END...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT AREAS
BETWEEN LITTLE ROCK...PINE BLUFF...AND BRINKLEY COULD SEE CLOSE TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. FURTHER COMPOUNDING
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
STATE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS ARKANSAS.

IN THE NORTH...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE SO
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A GIVEN FROM THE VERY BEGINNING...AND A
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. HELD OFF ON A
CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
STILL...SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FOR
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

IN THE SOUTH...SINCE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR
THE LOUISIANA BORDER...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. IT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN PIKE COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE MAIN PUSH OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND...WHILE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THIS SHOULD PRESENT TRAVEL ISSUES AS VERY COLD AIR WILL
PROMOTE ICING OF ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES FRIDAY EVENING.


A COUPLE OF CLOSING ITEMS HERE AND WE WILL BE DONE.

TEMPERATURES...VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLY UP NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY.

MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM NOSE WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...BUT LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN. BY THAT
TIME...SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS WELL SO
EVERYTHING THAT FALLS SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING WILL STICK
AND/OR ACCUMULATE. BE ADVISED THAT MORE ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO EXPECTED
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL SIMPLY SIT ON WHAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH...IF
ANY...MELTING ON SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
PLAINS. WHILE THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IT
WILL BE COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AT NIGHT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL HEAD EAST
AS THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A
WARMUP BEYOND THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  26  28   9 / 100 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         63  34  35  24 / 100 100 100  20
HARRISON AR       32  20  22   5 / 100 100  90  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  30  32  17 / 100 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  57  30  32  17 / 100 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  33  35  24 / 100 100 100  30
MOUNT IDA AR      46  28  31  15 / 100 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  22  23   6 / 100 100 100  10
NEWPORT AR        48  27  29  12 / 100 100 100  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  31  33  21 / 100 100 100  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  27  29  13 / 100 100 100  10
SEARCY AR         53  28  30  14 / 100 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      58  30  32  18 / 100 100 100  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-HOT SPRING-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46