Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260153 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
853 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE PRECIP AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AS WE HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE LAST OF THE HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES...WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITION ARE STILL EXPECTED. AS SUCH...HAVE ELECTED TO
USE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN. ALL UPDATES OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...26/00Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD CONVECTION CONTS TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ATTM AND THIS TREND WL
CONT OVR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LEFT A MENTION OF TSRA AT KHOT FOR
THE NEXT HOUR WHERE ACTIVITY IS STILL AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR TO DVLP LATE TNGT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION WL BE MORE ISOLD ON TUE...SO WL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 128 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RECENTLY
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LA GULF COAST IS
ALSO AIDING IN ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A RESULT...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SHOULD SEE THINGS WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG TO SVR LEVELS
BRIEFLY...WITH SOME STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SIMILAR STORY WILL BE SEEN ON TUE...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES WEST OVER
THE AREA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PRECIP
POTENTIAL. WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADV FOR TUE AS OVERALL
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPOTS COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CREST 105 FOR AN HR OR TWO
ON TUE.

WILL SEE CONTINUED...ALBEIT GRADUAL...WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE INTO THU...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT REMAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...AS WELL AS EVEN ALLOWING TEMPS TO POSSIBLY
STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE STATE...THE CHANCES FOR A STRONGER SURGE OF DRIER...AND COOLER
AIR DOES NOT LOOK VERY GOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  95  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  93  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       71  96  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  94  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  92  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  98  72  96 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        72  94  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  93  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  74  95 /  10  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  73  93 /  10  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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