Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 201821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
121 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017
Most low clouds around the state have scattered out with MVFR
conditions persisting at KLLQ for only an hour or two more.
Otherwise VFR conditions and breezy southwest winds will continue
through the day. After sunset winds will become light and a cold
front will approach the state from the north. Ceilings will lower
at KHRO and KBPK...but do expect conditions will remain VFR
through the end of the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 627 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017
AVIATION...20/12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conds wl prevail for most locations throughout the fcst PD.
The exception wl be the leading edge of an area of low clouds
/MVFR CIGS/ working into SWRN AR. Hi-Res model data cont to
suggest this cloud deck wl affect mainly SRN AR this mrng.
Increasing SWLY winds with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph
common, with higher gusts possible this aftn. Wind speeds wl
diminish tngt. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 425 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night
With the official arrival of Spring later this mrng, 529 am CDT, it
wl feel much more like summer acrs AR today.
Early this mrng, a fntl bndry was nearly stationary fm N to S acrs
the central part of AR. Cooler and drier air was noted to the E of
the fnt, with temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with dewpoints still
in the 40s. Meanwhile, temps in the 60s to lower 70s were noted to
the W, with assocd dewpoints in the 50s.
The fntl bndry wl eventually shift EWD today as low pres takes shape
to our N, with warmer airmass overspreading the rest of the FA. Weak
upr rdg is also progged to be situated acrs the region today,
helping to push daytime highs in the 80s. Still looking at some
record breaking heat in a few areas. Breezy SWLY winds wl also be
common to help with the warm up.
The upper rdg wl weaken heading into Tue as a new upr level storm
sys apchs fm the NW. This wl allow a CDFNT to drop sloly into N AR
late tngt and Tue, with chances of convection returning to the fcst.
Clouds and rain chcs on Tue wl result in cooler temps ovr the Nrn
counties. Expect another unseasonably warm day to the S of the fntl
bndry, with highs in the lower and mid 80s.
The aforementioned CDFNT wl cont to work further SWD Tue ngt, with
SCTD showers/storms expected. The unsettled wx wl cont acrs AR
heading into the middle of the week as the front stalls out over the
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday
Wednesday will start off with a stationary boundary across, most
likely, the central to southern half of the state. Expect to see
some MCS activity entering the state from the west during the
morning hours Wednesday, closer to the mid level reflection of the
stationary surface boundary. Mid-level lapse rates will be fairly
strong so expect to see some thunder embedded in the larger area of
convection, but not very confident in how widespread that will be so
left it as isolated thunder for now. Nocturnal convection will
diminish through the morning as upper ridging builds over the
southern plains Wednesday afternoon through Thursday in advance of
the next system slated to affect the state Friday. Thursday will be
dry as the state resides in the warm sector of that system.
Friday is the main talking point in the long term period right now
as there is a chance for some severe storms. Models have honed in on
the idea of a closed upper low ejecting from New Mexico across the
southern plains Thursday night into Friday. Right now the most
likely scenario looks to be the development of a squall line across
eastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon. This line of storms will shift
east into the forecast area late Friday evening, and will continue
to move east across the state during the overnight hours Friday
night. Expect damaging winds to be the most probably severe type.
Dry conditions will follow through much of the weekend as the upper
low shifts east of the state, but another system will bring more
rainfall to at least the northern parts of the state by Monday.