Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240214
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
814 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH QUITE EASILY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH. STILL
LOOKING AT A LITTLE MIX ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS
OUT BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WEATHER/POP GRIDS WERE REWORKED TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR SOLUTION. ALL OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS LEFT AS IS AND ALL UPDATES ARE OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST WEST OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPR LVL TROF RMND SITUATED TO THE W OF AR THIS AFTN. THIS RESULTING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS BRINGING ANOTHER SHRTWV THRU THE FA WITH ASSOCD
RAINFALL NOW WORKING ACRS CNTRL AR. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV HAS
RESULTED IN SOME BINOVC OVR PARTS OF WRN AR AT MID AFTN.
MEANWHILE...CDFNT WAS LOCATED WELL E OF THE AREA WITH N/NWLY WINDS
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV WL CONT TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING AND PLAN TO
ADJUST EVENING POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. BY LATER TNGT AND ON
WED...THE MAIN UPR TROF WL SHIFT EWD THRU THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN WL ACCOMPANY THIS SYS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
MENTIONED FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FA.

RAIN CHCS WL DIMINISH FM THE SW ON WED AS THE UPR LVL SYS AND ASSOCD
SFC LOW LIFT NEWD AWAY FM THE FA. CURRENT FCST TRENDS STILL LOOK
GOOD INDCG SMALL POPS ACRS NRN AR WED AFTN. ONE CONCERN STILL
LINGERS REGARDING THE CHC OF SOME WET SNOW ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN
AR LATE TNGT AND WED MRNG AS COLDER AIR ALOFT /ASSOCD WITH THE UPR
TROF/ MOVES OVR THE AREA. MODEL DATA CONT TO SHOW THAT SFC TEMPS WL
STAY ABV FRZG IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A
BURST OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES.

THE STORM SYS WL CONT TO PULL AWAY FM THE REGION WED NGT AND THU...
WITH DRIER CONDS RETURNING. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS YET
ANOTHER FAST MOVG STORM SYS WL BRING RAIN CHCS BACK THE NATURAL
STATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND FORECAST HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. MAINLY A SHOWER
EVENT...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THEN THE EURO. HAVE
TRENDED TO THE SLOWER EURO AND KEEP MORE PRECIP OVER AR THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN THE PRECIP GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF AR LATER SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND HENCE
HOLDING OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS...SOME LOW CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL...TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...AS TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY AND COOL MONDAY...BUT SOME
CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH TOTALLY EXISTS
EAST. TUESDAY MAY SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  44  31  51 /  60  40  10   0
CAMDEN AR         38  47  31  56 /  50  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       34  39  28  51 /  30  40  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    37  45  30  54 /  40  20   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  46  31  53 /  50  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     41  47  33  54 /  60  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      35  43  28  54 /  30  20   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  36  41  29  51 /  40  40  10   0
NEWPORT AR        39  45  31  51 /  60  40  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     40  47  32  53 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  44  28  53 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         39  45  29  51 /  60  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      40  46  31  52 /  60  30   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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