805
FXUS64 KLZK 300732
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday as a cold front moves south into
  Arkansas.

- Hot and humid conditions return for the latter part of the week
  into next weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
  heat index values of 105-110 degrees possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A potent cold pool was noted acrs the NWrn half of the state fm
earlier Sun evng convection, w/ sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s at
several reporting sites. However, despite the significant
cooldown noted, another hot and humid day is on deck to start the
work week. The most hazardous heat is expected acrs the Ern half
of the state, where aftn heat index values wl lkly top 105 degrees
or more, coinciding w/ another Heat Advisory.

A trailing cdfrnt is expected to move into Nrn AR Mon evng, asctd
w/ Great Lakes sfc low pressure. Some diurnally driven precip wl
lkly be seen ahead of the frnt, in addition to locally enhanced
temps. Though greater confidence of more widespread precip covg
currently falls near 00Z Mon night and into the overnight PD,
particularly over the Nrn third of AR.

The severe threat w/ any thunderstorms should stay low and
conditional given the lack of wind shear, however, a few strong to
severe storms may still be possible, w/ damaging wind gusts and
hail the primary threats later Mon aftn to evng.

Tues, precip acrs the FA is lkly to persist as the aforementioned
frnt stalls acrs the Cntrl portion of the state. This wl allow for
a few days worth of "relatively" cooler condns and heat index
values below 100 degrees, though Srn AR may not see as much
relief. However, Wed forward, sfc high pressure wl settle in over
the Srn Cntrl US, w/ upper ridging amplifying over much of the
CONUS. This wl shut off more widespread precip chcs thru the
remainder of the work week, w/ only diurnal/isoltd precip to
mention. The mid to late week pattern wl also usher in the return
hot and humid condns, w/ current base guidance suggesting highs in
the mid to upper 90s by next weekend, and heat headlines lkly
needed again acrs much of the FA.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Expect VFR condns to prevail thru much of the new TAF PD, w/
earlier evng convective activity having cleared out over most of
the FA. Light and variable winds w/ mainly high clouds wl be seen
into Mon mrng, w/ SWrly winds resuming Mon aftn. Some uncertainty
remains on exact timing and placement of precip potential Mon
aftn as a weak cdfrnt moves into Nrn AR. For now, have kept PROB30
mentions for aftn to evng TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  72  88  69 /  70  40  20   0
Camden AR         94  73  92  72 /  10  20  40  10
Harrison AR       89  69  86  66 /  70  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  73  91  71 /  30  30  30  10
Little Rock   AR  93  74  90  73 /  40  40  30  10
Monticello AR     94  75  91  73 /  20  20  50  10
Mount Ida AR      93  72  89  71 /  30  40  30  10
Mountain Home AR  88  70  86  66 /  70  30  10   0
Newport AR        94  74  89  71 /  60  40  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  74  89  72 /  30  30  40  10
Russellville AR   93  72  90  70 /  50  40  20   0
Searcy AR         93  72  89  70 /  60  40  20   0
Stuttgart AR      93  74  88  73 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72