Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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671
FXUS64 KLZK 240008
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
708 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact KHOT and KADF
thru 04z. Looks like all other TAF sites will be spared any
impacts from storms through 06z. Some redevelopment is possible
after midnight with KLLQ and KPBF in the most favored area.
Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions and light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
A weakening ridge of high pressure and a weak cold front pushing
into the region from the north will result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms from northern into central
Arkansas through this evening.

Tonight and Monday, a weak system aloft will develop from southern
sections of the state to the western Gulf Coast. Hit and miss
precipitation will shift into central/southern sections of the
state.

More clouds/chances of rain on Monday will result in close to
seasonal temperatures. The current Heat Advisory will be allowed
to expire this evening.

Through Monday, storms will not tend to move much given a weak
steering flow, and moisture levels will be somewhat elevated.
Given this, locally heavy downpours will be noted, with some spots
picking up a quick inch of rain. Widespread appreciable rain is
not in the forecast, but some of us will get a nice cloudburst.

A severe storm or two is also possible, with strong/damaging
winds the main concern.

On Tuesday, rain will start becoming more spotty as high pressure
starts making a return. It will also be a little warmer, with
temperatures a little above average.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Saturday
The gist of the long term: Relief is on the way - but first, more
heat.

Upper level ridging will be centered over Arkansas Tuesday night and
Wednesday. It will be in the process of shifting west of the state
Wednesday night into Thursday as we start to see the beginnings of a
pattern shift develop. As a result, temperatures will still be quite
warm Wed and Thu, likely as hot as the warmest days of this past
week.

The upper ridge will amplify and shift to the western states Thu
into Fri, allowing a front to move into the state and begin to cool
things off. Some timing differences do exist with the arrival of the
front and the associated rainfall, but it does look like there will
be a decent chance of rain for most places Fri through Fri night.
Temperaturs on Fri may still be a little warm depending on which
model timing works out, but they will be notably cooler than recent
days or even the middle of this week. However, highs in the 80s and
much lower dewoints look like they`ll be possible for next weekend
which will be quite welcome.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...32 / Long Term...CAVANAUGH



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