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000
FXUS64 KLZK 042346
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
546 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

SNOW IS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ARE REPORTED IN CENTRAL SECTIONS...AND RAIN CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTH. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER.
AS SUCH THE DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THAT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE TRACKING DECENTLY THIS AFTERNOON SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NRN LOUISIANA UP THROUGH NE
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ARCTIC AIR BEGINNING TO SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH ARKANSAS AS OF 2 PM. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE LOUISIANA INTO MISS LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS CONTRIBUTED TO KEEPING THE COLD AIR FROM SPILLING
AROUND THE OZARKS AND DOWN THE DELTA EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER AS
THIS HAS SHIFTED TO NE MISS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS
HAS SHOWN THAT THE COLD AIR HAS NOW BEGUN TO FREELY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. ALL IN ALL THE FREEZING
LINE WAS ABOUT 2-3 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
OR LAST NIGHT...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF
THINGS. AS SUCH STILL THINK THE TIMING FROM THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. REPORTS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW THAT SLEET
IS NOW BEGINNING TO FILTER AS FAR SOUTH AS HEBER SPRINGS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND TO BATESVILLE EAST OF THE OZARKS. A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN HARRISON...MTN
HOME...AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE WEST LIKE BENTONVILLE AND
FAYETVILLE. GIVEN THE TRENDS...STILL EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO MAKE IT TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 5-6PM THIS
EVENING...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SLEET OR SLEET/SNOW MIX OCCURRING
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD
MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AROUND 8PM OR SO THIS EVENING. A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH SNOW MAKING IT TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK THU.

ON RADAR...TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL DATA. GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN PTYPE REPORTS COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...SAW NO REASON TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS. STILL THINK THAT...BETWEEN
THE SLEET AND SNOW...AREAS AROUND AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
SEARCY AND BATESVILLE WILL SEE SOMEWHERE AROUND 4-6 INCHES TOTAL
ACCUMULATION. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THAT
SHOULD BE ABOUT RIGHT FOR MOST PLACES IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS YOU GET BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND AREAS LIKE RUSSELVILLE...CONWAY...PINE BLUFF...AND OF COURSE
THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA...BELIEVE THAT THE 2-4 INCHES IS STILL
A GOOD ESTIMATE THERE. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...FROM MENA DOWN TO ARKADELPHIA AND OVER TO MONTICELLO
FOR INSTANCE...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1-2
INCH RANGE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER THESE AREAS COULD ALSO PICK UP A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO SLEET
OCCURS...SO IMPACTS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE LESS THAN IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE...JUST DIFFERENT.

WINDS ARE ALSO RATHER HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WELL. MANY SITES HAVE COME
IN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THUS UTILITY
OUTAGES COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT ICING
OCCURS BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET/SNOW. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERALL DRY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S. MODELS HINT AT SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT IT DRY AT THIS POINT. MONDAY
TO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
THE REGION...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF AR. TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A BIT MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CLOSER TO
AR...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED THAT FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS FOR THE COMING
WEEK WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST IS MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     20  29   9  34 / 100  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         26  34  17  39 / 100  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       15  29  13  40 /  80  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    24  34  14  39 / 100  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  31  12  34 / 100  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     25  31  15  34 / 100  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      23  34  15  41 / 100  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  17  30  12  39 /  80  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        21  27   6  29 / 100  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     24  30  13  32 / 100  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   21  33  14  39 / 100  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         22  29   9  32 / 100  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      22  29  11  30 / 100  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51