Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201127 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED CU TO THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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