Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
726 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017


Expanding area of convection over OK this evening wl eventually
work EWD acrs much of the FA later tngt and early Mon morning. VFR
conds wl prevail ahead of the storms, with deteriorating conds as
convection moves into a particular fcst site. TAF sites ovr NRN
and WRN AR wl see storms roughly between 04-08z, and sites further
to the E thereafter. An overall weakening trend is indicated by
the Hi-Res model data later tngt as the activity moves into more
stable airmass. MVFR cigs wl form over ERN AR toward daybreak as
low clouds advect into the area. A slow improvement wl occur later
in the PD. /44/

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 324 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

A quiet...but warm spring day was ongoing across the CWA this Sun
afternoon ...with a mostly clear sky and a SRLY breeze seen for most
areas. Some clouds were beginning to increase across the NW as
convection develops over central OK...and lifts NE. Expect scattered
to widespread SHRA/TSRA to develop west of the state the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening hrs...with increasing clouds expected
to the NE over parts of AR.

As this activity matures over OK...a warm front will begin lifting
north across the state this evening with moisture levels starting to
rise. The convection to the west will then move east into WRN
portions of the state late this evening about the time the warm
front lifts north over that region of the state. The cluster of
SHRA/TSRA or potentially MCS by late this evening will then move
east into central sections of the state by a few hrs after midnight.

Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this area of
convection across the WRN counties late this evening and just after
midnight. This will be especially true of this convection forms into
a mature MCS as it surges east. Some hail potential will also
exist...especially since some decent CAPE is forecast in the hail
growth zone. Cannot rule out some short lived tornadoes as
well...with a brief window along and just ahead of the leading edge
of convection as the lowest level SRH values will be enhanced.

As the convection shift east after midnight...the overall SVR Wx
threat will lessen some the further east it progresses...with
primarily a damaging wind threat remaining into central sections of
the state.

By sunrise Mon...the main area of convection will have moved into
ERN sections of the state...with the overall SVR threat with that
convection decreasing for the LZK CWA. However...there will still be
some lingering chances for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon and
evening hrs as the cold front drops SE through the state. Looks like
the SVR Wx threat with the front will be more limited...but still
could see some isolated areas of high wind or large hail.

The cold front will drop to far SRN AR before stalling on Tue. Will
keep some chances for precip along this front on Tue across the far
SRN counties. Otherwise...the rest of the CWA will remain dry and
fairly quiet. More active weather will then return for the long term

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

The next upper level storm system in a string of systems will begin
to impact the area as early as Tuesday night. This system looks to
be potent one and will likely bring another round of severe storms
to the state. The far western portions of the CWA could see a few
storms late Tue night, with storm coverage increasing across the
state Wed and widespread storms likely Wed night. Conditions look
favorable for severe weather and similar to the severe outbreak we
experienced last Friday night. Wrap around showers and thunderstorms
will continue Thu before mid level ridging provides a brief break in
the action Friday and Saturday. However the next big upper low will
move into the south central plains bringing more storms Saturday
night and Sunday. Once again, the severe weather potential looks
promising with this system.

In addition to the severe potential of damaging winds, large hail
and tornadoes. the Wed-Thu system later this week could bring some
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding to a portions of the
state. Rainfall totals could exceed 4 inches in a few areas.

Temperatures will remain just a little above seasonal normals
throughout the extended periods with highs generally in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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