Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 180135
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
735 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.AVIATION...18/00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds wl prevail through much of the overnight hours as mid
and high lvl moisture streams NWD acrs AR. MVFR conds wl return
late tngt acrs mainly central and southern AR, as low lvl moisture
incrs. A few showers are also possible, with VCSH mentioned. VFR
conds are anticipated areawide again heading into Sat aftn. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017)

Short Term...Tonight thru Sunday...
Surface high pressure has moved off to the east, allowing a
southerly flow to return to the area. Surface moisture levels are on
the rise, and dewpoints that are in the 30`s to lower 40`s this
afternoon will give way to dewpoints in the mid 50`s by tomorrow.

Aloft, an upper level low was located over the TX panhandle and wrn
OK region. Ahead of this low an area of midlevel lift and upper
level diffluence was creating an area of cloudiness and
relatively light rain across portions of ern TX, ern OK, and LA,
with some radar returns showing up in portions of wrn and srn AR
this afternoon.

Surface observations suggest that a lot of this precip was falling
at the midlevels and was not reaching the surface. Dewpoint values
in many of these areas were still quite low, and few stations were
reporting any precip. Despite that, I would expect some areas to
receive some light rainfall overnight, especially with low level
moisture values increasing. I went ahead with 20 POPs across the
southern half of the state this evening, and bumped this up to 30-40
pct by early morning in the eastern half of the area.

The warm, spring-like temperatures are going to continue through the
short term period, which should make for some pleasant weekend
weather. As the upper low passes to the east, some ridging aloft
will take place, which should make temps on Sunday even warmer.
Readings should top out in the 60`s to lower 70`s across the area
tomorrow, with 70`s and a few 80 degree readings on Sunday.

I suspect that high temperatures on Sunday are going to be getting
to within a few degrees of some record highs, although I suspect
most sites will fall short. Records across the north are in the
upper 70`s to the lower 80`s, in central AR most are in the lower
80`s, and across the south about the same. However, it`s certainly
not out of the question that some location may get just enough
warming to tie or top a record, especially across the south.

Long Term...Sunday Night through Friday
So, if you`ve been reading my discussions for the last four days,
you pretty much know what`s expected to happen. Done.

Just kidding.

Precipitation will be overspreading the region on Monday, as uplift
occurs north of a surface front and associated low in the Gulf of
Mexico, and southwest flow associated with a deepening upper low
moving into south Texas sends pacific moisture into the region.
Showers should be the most widespread on Monday night, as the
surface low passes to the south of the region, and the upper low
becomes cut off from the mean flow and moves out into the gulf.
There should be enough elevated instability for thunderstorms,
but, again, coverage should be isolated at the most.

Rain chances will decrease on Tuesday, as drier air advects in on
the back side of the surface system. Thin nose of high pressure will
move through fairly quickly on Wednesday, with low level flow
turning back around to the southwest and south, negating any slight
cool down we would have otherwise had.

By Thursday into Friday, troughing digging down into the southern
Rockies will push a surface low and associated cold front through
the region from the northwest. This will bring rain chances back
into the forecast at the end of the week, though at this point, it
doesn`t look as though there will be much, given lack of deep
moisture return ahead of it.

Okay, by now you know the drill...everybody say it with me...
temperatures will remain above seasonal averages. Okay, now I`m
done.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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