Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 220228 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
925 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...

IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. ON
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS
FROM 16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 5 PM OR SO. MODEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WAS SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVED THROUGH MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS CORRECT IN SHOWING THAT
CONVECTION WANING DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ARKANSAS. NOW THAT PEAK HEATING IS UPON US HOWEVER...WITH MANY
AREAS IN THE SRN HALF OF ARKANSAS OVER 90 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM...THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO POP UP. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STATE BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TAKING WITH IT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

DEWPOINTS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON HAD ALREADY FALLEN
INTO THE MID 50S. THIS AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REMAINDER OF
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S UP NORTH TO LOW
60S IN THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT
WITH AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE THAT SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD FALL
INTO THE 40S. AFTER COOLER STARTS TO THE DAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. AS SUCH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AS COOL AS
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LESS INFLUENCE OF THE
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL
FORECAST IS EXPECTED. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WHILE THEIR INFLUENCE WILL
STILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR ARKANSAS. AN EAST TO GRADUAL
E TO SE FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS...BUT EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND...
ANY RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SYSTEM TO MAKE
IT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK...BUT WITH THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S...ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED
AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE LIMITED FOR ARKANSAS. OVER THE
WEEKEND...SOME LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES...WITH SOME POSSIBLE INFLUENCE INTO FAR SOUTHERN AR.
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE START
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SOMME MODERATION LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  77  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  80  56  80 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  74  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  55  78 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  79  55  78 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  80  55  80 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      58  78  53  78 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  76  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        55  75  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     60  78  54  78 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         57  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      57  76  53  77 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.