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000
FXUS64 KLZK 031731 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AR. OTHER AREAS HAVE MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS. THE FOG AND
LOWER CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS OF
MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT E TO SE
WINDS OR E TO SE AT 3 TO 8 KNOTS. TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE IN AGAIN OVER ALL OF AR. MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT E TO SE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BUT MORE ON
THAT A LITTLE LATER.

FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN.
SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. THE FOG/DRIZZLE SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WHEN THE GRADIENT PICKS UP AFTER SUNRISE.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED TODAY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 60S TO MAYBE EVEN
LOWER 70S IN THE DELTA REGION. GIVEN THE SETUP...FOG IS LIKELY TO
FORM AGAIN TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTER TONIGHT...WELL...HERE/S WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING AND
COMPLICATED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER TROUGHING DIGS DOWN OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOME TIME
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT HITS
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A HEALTHY DOSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TO ADD TO THE ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE BEING UPLIFTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SAME TIME...VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. INITIALLY IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OVER
THE OZARKS...BUT WILL PICK UP SPEED ON FRIDAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

AT THIS POINT...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING LINE WILL BE
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY...WITH TRANSITION
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE REGION DURING THAT
PERIOD...ROUGHLY WEST OF MENA...CONWAY...AND NEWPORT. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLEET WILL MIX IN...WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY DAWN FRIDAY.

TRANSITION ZONE WILL SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
WITH FREEZING RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTHEAST SOME TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...PRECIP SHOULD MIX OUT WITH
SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SLEET BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...PRIMARY MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY NOSES BY. PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRIEFLY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME BACK WITH INCREASING QPF AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN
THE TWO SOURCES OF MOISTURE...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. RIGHT NOW...
HAVE MOST AREAS PICKING UP AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
LIQUID QPF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO AN
INCH IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE THINGS COME TO AN END
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS...INITIALLY...THE OZARKS AND
OUACHITAS COULD PICK UP NEARLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IN SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY RANGE ONE TO THREE INCHES.

OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-30/HIGHWAY 67
CORRIDOR...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE. SLEET/SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS
POINT. HOWEVER...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR
PENETRATES THE AREA AND HOW FAST THE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE MOVES OUT.

THOUGH PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS AND TYPE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SOME...AS I SAID BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH OF A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH AND WEST
COUNTIES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-30/HIGHWAY 67 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WATCH
WILL GO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN
THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. DEPENDENT ON IF SOME
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN DRY ON MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND TO
THE MID SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS
ON MONDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BEGIN DRY OVER THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH AND OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETTING
UP...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE
NORTHWARD. NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE ALL SNOW...WHILE THE SOUTH
WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SUNDAY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE
LIKELY IN THE NORTH WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SNOW
WILL OVERTAKE THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH RAIN...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WHICH WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S SATURDAY...30S
SUNDAY AND 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  55  66  38 /  10  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         68  59  73  59 /  10  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       64  52  59  29 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  56  69  48 /  10  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  60  70  45 /  10  10  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     70  64  73  60 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      66  54  71  43 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  53  62  33 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        67  56  66  40 /  10  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     68  56  72  51 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  55  69  40 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         65  53  68  41 /  10  10  20  30
STUTTGART AR      68  57  70  42 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-PERRY-PIKE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-
WHITE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...59