Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011755
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAF CYCLE

INCRSD MIXING AT MIDDAY HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO SLOLY SCT OUT ACRS
THE FA. STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS... BUT VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM MRNG CONVECTION WAS SITUATED
OVR NRN AR ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA ALONG
THE BNDRY THIS AFTN...BUT ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FCST
SITES. INCLUDED VC GROUPS AT KPBF AND KLLQ EARLY THIS AFTN FOR
LINGERING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WL DVLP TO OUR NW OVERNIGHT...
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING NRN AR LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG WITH PROB30
GROUPS INCLUDED. LOW CLOUDS WL AGAIN DVLP AND ADVECT NWD INTO SRN
AND CNTRL AR LATE TNGT/TUE MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS DVLPG.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

THE MCS THAT MOVED INTO NW ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HAVE LEFT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ANDT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TREND.
OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION COULD SPUR SOME POP UP
TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A SIZABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TURNING
TO THE EAST WITH TIME...BUT IT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SCRAPE
THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS AFTER DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER RAINFALL MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING OR
NOT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUT OUT BY THIS COMPLEX WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WHICH AGAIN
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS
SFC LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
HELP PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT TERRIBLY FAR SOUTH...CONVECTION
WILL FIRE ALONG IT AND THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE NORTH BUT MCS
ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY MAKE IT WELL INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SO HAVE LEFT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THAT A
BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.

SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE KEEPING AT THE VERY LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW
FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE STATE. REGARDLESS...ONLY CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCES CAN BE JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY THE MAV/MEX. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF NUMBERS BUT WILL UNDERCUT THESE BY
A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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