Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 181147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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