Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHED FROM MENA TO BATESVILLE AS OF 05Z...BUT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 8 HRS OR SO.
EXPECT -TSRA TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES STARTING AROUND
07Z FOR KHOT AND KADF...AND MORE TOWARDS 08Z-09Z AT KPBF AND KLLQ.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AND CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH PREVAILING -SHRA LASTING THROUGH MID
MORNING OR SO BEFORE RAINFALL FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS UP NORTH AND LIKELY
TO 2500 FT AGL OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
ALL SITES. HAVE NORTHERLY GUSTS TO AT LEAST 20KT AT ALL SITES BUT
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLIT AFTER
DAYBREAK.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FORT SMITH
TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS
POINT...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. LATEST
RUNS OF HRRR HAS A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND FOLLOWING CLOSE TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THESE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
HIGH LCL VALUES. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS DO SUGGEST THESE MAY FALL
A BIT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
00Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY OUTRACES THE STORMS. CONTINUES TO
LOOK THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED NW OF
THE CWA.

LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH UPPER ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH...SOME SMALL
CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER...THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LESSEN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FEATURES IN EXPECTED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  36  54  35 /  40  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         61  42  62  42 /  50  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  34  53  33 /  30  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  39  60  40 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  39  57  39 /  40  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  37  60  40 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      62  35  61  37 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  35  54  34 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        57  34  54  35 /  60  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     58  40  56  38 /  60  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  37  58  38 /  30  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  36  56  35 /  50  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      57  39  55  37 /  60  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







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