Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170528
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected for all area TAF sites over the next 24
hours. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across Arkansas. The 00Z RAOB showed a very dry air mass in place
across the state. This combined with relatively dry soil conditions
should prevent fog from develop at area airports early Tuesday
morning. Otherwise light and variable winds will become light and
easterly and then southeasterly as high pressure slides off to the
east.

Cavanaugh
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 226 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Fair conditions are expected during this period.

Large scale surface high pressure, extending from western North
Texas, to the eastern Great Lakes, will move slowly eastward during
this period, as the upper flow across the U.S. loses amplitude. This
pattern will promote continued dry conditions.

Near normal afternoon temperatures are expected during this period,
with slightly below normal overnight low temperatures.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
An upper level ridge will build across the southeastern US at the
beginning of the extended term, allowing temperatures to warm back
up to above climo, with low level moisture values increasing on
a southerly surface flow.

Models indicate a shortwave moving into the area from the Plains
in the Friday night-Saturday time frame. The GFS is bringing the
shortwave through a bit more quickly than the ECMWF and would
favor greater thunderstorm chances on Friday evening, with the
ECMWF favoring later development on Saturday. For the time being I
have placed some low POPs on Friday night, and have included
greater chances on Saturday.

A pronounced upper level trof will be moving into the area later on
Saturday into Sunday, along with a surface cold front. This
should bring a good chance of precip along and ahead of the front,
along with a cool-down back to climo normals.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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