Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 130634 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
134 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW CEILINGS OCCUR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS TO FINISH OUT
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

ENOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO EFFECTIVELY LIFT CIGS TO VFR LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING AT NRN TERMINALS AROUND 14Z-16Z...IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z-20Z...AND FINALLY IN THE SOUTH AT KLLQ
BY 22Z OR SO. MEANWHILE...THROUGH 10Z OCNL -RADZ MAY OCCUR AT
KHOT...KADF...AND KLIT AND HAVE THIS COVERED IN FORECAST THERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10KT OR SO THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THEY WILL LIGHTEN TO ABOUT 5KT AND
BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST A BIT MORE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF ARKANSAS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY SKIES AND NELY SFC WINDS RESULTING IN FALL LIKE CONDS ACRS
THE FA TODAY. AN AREA OF MAINLY LGT RAIN CONT TO LIFT SLOLY NWD ACRS
THE AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY TO CONT WORKING NWD THRU
THIS EVENING AS THE ASSOCD UPR IMPULSE SHIFTS NEWD. MID AFTN TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S...WITH LOW TO MID 70S NOTED
OVR FAR SRN AR. WL POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TEMP RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED
OVR THE CWA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ASSOCD FNTL BNDRY...THAT BROUGHT THE CHG IN AIRMASS...WAS
SITUATED WELL S OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. RAIN CHCS WL LINGER INTO
EARLY SAT AS WE SEE ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE OR TWO LIFT NEWD OVR THE
MOIST COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE SFC. KEPT POPS IN LOW CHC CAT
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES WL EVENTUALLY BLD INTO THE FA LATER SAT AND PERSIST THRU
THE WEEKEND. THIS WL ALLOW MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DCRSG CLOUDS AND CONTD COOLER TEMPS. THE HIGH
WL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO RETURN AHEAD OF A NEW CDFNT THAT WL APCH FM THE
NW...ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHCS. TEMPS WL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOLY MODIFY
SUN AND MON AHEAD OF THE FNT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. BY THURSDAY THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND THE STRONG TROUGH
WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING SOUTH ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  51  75  57 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         74  56  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       66  48  73  57 /  10   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  56  78  61 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  49  74  56 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        70  50  75  57 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  53  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         71  52  76  58 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  54  78  59 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64




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