Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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617
FXUS64 KLZK 210932
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
432 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
The main story in the near term will be the approach of Tropical
Storm Cindy. The system is expected to make landfall near
the Texas/Louisiana line during the predawn hours Thursday. From
there, the system should make it into southern Arkansas late
Thursday night/early Friday.

Before the remnants of Cindy arrive, it will be mostly dry today.
Clouds will increase over the southeast half of the state, and
cannot rule out isolated showers. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal, and a little below average in the southeast.

Going forward, have rain chances steadily increasing from the
south tonight and Thursday. The northward extend of the rain
will be dependent on the track of Cindy. The latest guidance
suggests an abrupt turn to the east toward the Tennessee Valley
late Thursday/Thursday night. That would leave northwest
sections of Arkansas with little in the way of precipitation.

The turn to the east will happen due to a cold front barreling
through the Plains. As the cold front nears, the turn will
occur.

Given the expected track, the bulk of the rain will be over
southern/eastern sections. Amounts through Thursday night in the
south/east should range from a half inch to inch and a half, with
locally over two inches. Rain will continue into the extended
period.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
By Friday morning the renmants of Cindy should be over east central
Arkansas and making a quick exit to the east of the state. This will
occur about the same time as a frontal boundary arrives from the
north. Thus it seems a near certainty that rain is in store for the
bulk of the state along/southeast of the I-30 and US-67 corridors.
The end of the short term (Thursday night) into the first part of
the long term period will be the time frame where the most
precipitation occurs with the remnants of Cindy. As expected with a
tropical system, this will be a very efficient rainfall producer.
And PWAT values are forecast to be exceptionally high, in the 2.50-
2.75" range across central and eastern portions of the state during
the day Friday. Have foregone issuing any Flash Flood advisories for
the time, but those may be required in the future.

Otherwise, the aforementioned frontal boundary will sweep into
southern Arkansas during the weekend, providing a focus for further
convection on Saturday monring nad early afternoon. Only scattered
storms are forecast that day though, and that will mainly in the
southern parts of the state. Beyond Sunday evening, chances for
rainfall will diminish greatly in the long term period as the upper
pattern amplifies and places Arkansas beneath persistent
northwesterly flow aloft.

Temperatures will be around normal, except for cloud cover and
rainfall. Expect to see highs below normal on Friday and Saturday,
with a slight warming trend during the first half of next week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  71  83  72 /  10  10  50  60
Camden AR         86  73  83  74 /  30  50  70  70
Harrison AR       89  68  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
Hot Springs AR    88  72  84  73 /  10  30  60  60
Little Rock   AR  88  73  83  74 /  10  30  60  60
Monticello AR     85  73  84  74 /  30  50  70  70
Mount Ida AR      88  71  83  72 /  10  20  50  50
Mountain Home AR  91  68  83  71 /   0  10  30  30
Newport AR        91  72  84  74 /  10  10  50  60
Pine Bluff AR     86  72  83  74 /  20  40  60  70
Russellville AR   91  72  85  73 /  10  10  50  40
Searcy AR         90  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  60
Stuttgart AR      88  73  84  74 /  10  30  60  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...64



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