Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301657 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with no
significant weather or obstructions to visibility.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(Issued 336 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

A large area of low pressure aloft continues to be centered over
the Ohio River. This low will move north through Indiana Saturday
and through the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. This will keep
northwest flow over Arkansas through the weekend. Much of the
period will be clear, but this low will provide some passing
clouds at times. High pressure will be near the Oklahoma through
the period, so expect the fewest clouds in this area. Cool
temperatures will continue with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday

The the first part of the extended forecast will be dry with warming
temperatures. Then the chance of rain is back in the forecast on
Wednesday and Thursday.

To start, the upper level high pressure ridge will be over the
region, and dry and warming temperatures will be seen through
Tuesday. Beginning mid-week, the high pressure systems will have
moved east, while a south wind flow returns to the region. As
moisture levels increase, an upper level system and cold front
approach AR late Tuesday with slight chances of convection in far
western AR. On Wednesday to part of Thursday, the system moves
through AR and increases chances of convection. On Thursday, the
system gradually moves east out of AR, taking convection chances out
of the state. At this time the threat of any severe storms appears
low, while model trends are a bit different, with the GFS weakening
the front and dynamics as they do move through AR on Wednesday to
Thursday, the Euro is stronger with more possible convection. At
this time forecast will blend the two models for a solution. As
mentioned, temperatures will be warmer ahead of the cold front, then
cool behind. Highs will start in the 70s to some 80s, to mainly the
80s by mid-week, cooling to the 70s behind the front. Lows will
start in the 50s, then warm to the 60s mid-week, then cooling back
to the 50s behind.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57



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