Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 282338
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front continues to work its way slowly through the state.
Showers will still be possible this evening across mainly central
terminals with some convection at KLLQ. Moisture will slowly
decrease behind the boundary along with a wind shift. Overall VFR
conditions will predominate but some patchy, brief MVFR
conditions could prevail this evening central and south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast remain the chance of convection the
rest of Sunday, Sunday night and mainly southern AR on Monday.
Low chances of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, then a bit higher
chance on Thursday and Friday and into the weekend.

This afternoon, the upper shortwave has pushed mainly out of AR,
and most of the light convection has moved out of AR. The weak cold
front does remain over AR, and generally still west of LIT near
RUE, with a drier airmass and a northwest wind shift. The
prefrontal low pressure trough has pushed across AR, and a
southwest to northwest wind is seen over much of AR. Short range
models only develop light convection with the front as it moves
southeast across AR, and have keep some low chances over central
areas, while a bit higher over southern AR. to the west. Some
upper energy is seen in the mean west to southwest flow, and same
models including HR indicate some possible develop over mainly
southern AR later this afternoon to evening, and will keep some
pops over the area. Temperatures were mainly in the 70s to near 80
degrees.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night

Will keep some chance of light convection this evening and into
the overnight, as the weak cold front sags southeast, and the
shortwave aloft moves over the southern parts of Ar. Lows tonight
will be the 50s to mid 60s. On Monday, models are similar, except
GFS has a bit more energy in the upper flow and hence some rain
chances over far southern AR. Have kept low chances over the south
in the forecast on Monday, with highs in the 80s. Dry Monday night
with lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Tuesday and Tuesday night, will
mostly be dry, with only afternoon low chances over southern and
northern areas. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

An upper low will be over the Great Lakes to begin the long term
period with upper high pressure just off the Florida coast and a
large upper ridge over the Rockies. The upper ridge moves a bit
east to Arkansas Wednesday night as an upper low develops in the
Texas Panhandle. This upper low tracks northeast and will go
through Missouri Friday night and Saturday and an upper trough
develops over Arkansas Saturday and Sunday.

Surface high pressure will be over the area from the beginning of
the period through Friday. However with several upper level systems
moving through the area will keep rain chances in the forecast
through the period. A warm front will set up over northeast Arkansas
Saturday and could stall. Seven day QPF shows most of the
precipitation in the north with 3 to 4 inches. Temperatures through
the period will be near normal to a bit below.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56



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