Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271543 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1040 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016


Current forecast overall on track. Fog and stratus over northern AR
has persisted longer than anticipated, but are seeing some thinning
and reduction of overall area. It will take to around noon before
seeing a significant breaking up of the stratus as winds pick-up a
bit from the northwest to north. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny
conditions will be seen into the afternoon, with temperatures
warming to the 70s over the north, to the upper 70s to lower 80s
central and south. The weak frontal boundary over southern MO will
oscillate a bit and sag to far northern AR with a light north wind.
Late morning update will fine tune clouds and temperatures over AR.


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 652 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2016/

Increasing low clouds/patchy fog wl produce pds of IFR conds ovr
NRN AR this mrng. IFR/LIFR conds wl also be noted early in the pd
at KADF. Conds in these areas wl improve to VFR lvls by mid to
late mrng. Elsewhere...expect mainly VFR conds thru the pd. Expect
ptchy fog to dvlp once again late tngt...mainly toward the end of
this fcst pd. /44/


SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Just a few SHRA/TSRA noted across ERN AR early this mrng...assocd
with upr trof situated along the MS RVR. Abundant low lvl moisture
still lingers acrs the FA...with a good bit of cloud cover and
patchy fog indcd. Hi-Res model data cont to indc that SHRA activity
wl be E of the area before plan to keep a dry fcst today.

Models rmn in good agreement today concerning overall fcst trends the
next few days. Upr rdg ovr the SWRN U.S. wl cont to bld EWD acrs the
Srn states...with a return to dry and unseasonably warm conds for
AR. High temps today wl range fm the mid 70s to lower 80s...and a
few degrees warmer on Fri. These readings are a good 5 to 10 degrees
abv normal for late Oct.

Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday

Fairly quiet weather conditions expected through much of the long
term period for Arkansas with abnormally dry to drought like
conditions expected to persist or worsen in many areas. There is
some indication near the end of the extended period that a shift in
the overall weather pattern may occur and a more active and slightly
cooler period may begin.

Surface high pressure will be in place across much of the southeast
United States providing a decent swrly flow over the state and the
upper level pattern will be fairly stagnant over the southern United
States as an H500 ridge remains in place although slightly more
compact in nature. SWRLY flow near the surface and high pressure
aloft will provide dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and temperatures
some 5-15 degrees above normal.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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