Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 302338 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AR...AND BRING VFR CEILINGS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM AT ALL TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN AND SHOWER
AREAS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE BECOME MORE EAST. THE LOWER
CEILINGS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

RAIN WAS INCREASING OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING
WITH A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ONE TO
TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY OVER THREE
INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY...AREAS OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN...BUT INTENSITIES WILL DECREASE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE.

GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF
THE 60S IN PLACES...WITH 70S COMMON IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR THE MONTH POSSIBLY
BROKEN.

OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WE WILL
START DRYING OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START
WARMING UP...BUT READINGS WILL STAY SUBPAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL
BE LIFTING NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE OF A WEAK NORTH FLOW
OVER THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND FROM THE
WEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL PERSIST AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...BUT
SOME GRADUAL WARMING WILL BE SEEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND OVER AR. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH MOST INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS
TIMEFRAME...ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLING TEMPS POSSIBLE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  74  62  83 /  60  70  20  20
CAMDEN AR         67  76  63  83 /  40  70  40  30
HARRISON AR       61  74  60  82 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  72  62  83 /  90  90  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  74  62  83 /  90  90  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     62  76  64  83 /  40  70  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      64  72  61  82 /  90  90  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  75  61  82 /  60  60  20  20
NEWPORT AR        63  75  62  83 /  50  70  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     65  74  63  83 /  50  80  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  73  61  83 / 100  80  20  20
SEARCY AR         64  76  62  83 /  80  90  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  76  63  83 /  70  90  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR GARLAND-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62








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