Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240558 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1258 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016


Update for the 06z aviation discussion below.



Moist return flow continues across the region as evident by mid to
upper 70 dewpoints spreading back into Arkansas. This should
produce patchy fog and/or low clouds around daybreak for central
and southern sites, especially for KLIT, KHOT, and KADF.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the period.



High pressure continues over the area. Satellite images show
clouds dissipating and moving out of the state. Decreased cloud
cover through much of the night. No precipitation is expected
overnight nor Wednesday.


Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday...
The forecast area will remain on the northwest side of an upper
level ridge centered over the sern US, resulting in a swly flow
aloft. At the surface a high to the east will keep a southerly to
southwesterly flow across the area, with dewpoints remaining quite

The combination of the ridge and the moist airmass will make for
very hot and muggy conditions across the area again. Heat index
values will be getting very close to heat advisory criteria in a
portion of Bradley, Desha, and Drew counties for a brief period of
time tomorrow afternoon. My only hesitation with issuing a heat
advisory is that swly surface winds may push the dewpoint down just
enough to keep values below advisory levels. In any event,
conditions are going to be very uncomfortable across a large portion
of our forecast area tomorrow.

POPs for tonight are not looking too promising at the moment, and
tomorrow looks to be predominantly dry as well. Afternoon convection
looks a bit more likely on Thursday.

Extended Term...Thursday night through Tuesday...
Upper level ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place to the
east of Arkansas at the start of the long term period. This will
provide swrly flow aloft and several upper level disturbances will
ride the western periphery of the high, which will help initiate
shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area.

Temperatures will be close to normal for the period with daytime
highs roughly in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Fairly humid air will be in place across
the state, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s being fairly
common. Given these dewpoints, heat indices will creep up nearing
dangerous levels in the 100-105 range mainly across the southeast
half of the state.

Near the end of the long term, focus will shift to the Gulf of
Mexico and potential tropical activity impacting the US as the upper
ridge may contract northeastward which would provide a conducive
pattern for any potential systems to enter the eastern Gulf.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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