Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240550
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST. LOW CLOUDS AT BPK SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE IN
THE NEXT HOUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME IFR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         76  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       76  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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