Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 302054 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  57  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  67  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       42  52  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  64  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  62  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  51  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        48  58  33  53 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  59  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  60  33  54 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58








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