Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271604
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1104 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered convection across north
central and northeast Arkansas, moving eastward. Shortwave energy
centered over southwest Missouri will continue eastward this
afternoon. Subsidence behind this system will have an affect on
chances for additional development this afternoon. Near term
forecasts have been adjusted to reflect the lower POP chances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017)

Aviation...

Overall VFR ceilings will start the forecast with areas of MVFR with
showers and thunderstorms. Most of the rain and lower ceilings will
be seen over northern AR. Only isolated IFR conditions are possible
this morning with any strongest storm. Most of the rain is forecast
to push east of AR into the afternoon to early evening. Winds will
mainly be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, then become southwest to
northwest at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph into the
afternoon behind a cold front. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ 416 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are convection chances the
rest of today, then the next storm system late Tuesday night to
Wednesday to Thursday, and the potential for strong to severe
storms. Temperatures will mainly be above normal values.

Early this morning,, the area of convection over AR associated
with an upper and surface system low pressure systems continue to
push east and slowly weaken. Have seen some reports of strong
winds and hail overnight, but overall threat of any severe storms
is slowly lowering. The surface low and cold front remain just to
the west of AR, and chances of rain will remain in the forecast
until the systems push east later today.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

Will keep some chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over
AR today, until the surface and upper low pressure systems move
out of the region. The threat of strong to severe storms will
lower this morning as the strong upper lift moves out of AR. A
marginal risk will still be possible over eastern AR until later
today. Highs today will be in the 60s, 70s to a few lower 80s over
far southern AR. Dry with mostly clear skies tonight as surface
high pressure filters into AR, with lows in the 40s, 50s to some
lower 60s south. Tuesday will be a dry and mild day, with highs in
the 60s to 70s. Tuesday night, the next system approaches AR from
the west, and begins to spread convection to far western areas
overnight. Better chances of rain will be seen on Wednesday. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 50s to 60s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

Wednesday to Thursday, the next strong surface and upper low
pressure systems move through the region, and bring AR more
convection, with the threat of strong to severe storms. The timing
in model runs at this time has the best time for strong to severe
storms Wednesday evening in the west, then later evening into the
overnight for central and eastern AR. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the main threats, with an isolated tornado possible.
The systems are a bit slower than the last previous systems and a
heavy rain threat with possible flooding. This storm system
gradually pulls out of the region later Thursday, with a dry
forecast for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain at or
above normal values.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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