Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281710
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SHRA COULD BE SEEN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS...BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SOME VCSH AS
POTENTIAL IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SOME
AFTERNOON CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS SOME
INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WAS NOTED ACRS AR WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THE HIGH CENTER WL CONT TO SAG SWD TODAY...PROVIDING FOR ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

MODELS CONT TO KEEP THE REGION IN A SUSTAINED NWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
THE FCST PD. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL IMPULSES IS FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY TNGT AND MON. AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
AR LATE TNGT AND MON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVR THE AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY N
OF THE FA. OPTED TO KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST IN THE VCNTY OF
THE BNDRY LATER TNGT THRU MON.

SEVERAL ADDITIONAL UPR LVL SHRTWV/S WL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCTD CONVECTION
THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS THRU MUCH OF THE PD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY
FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER
ARKANSAS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY COLD FRONTS THAT APPROACH THE STATE SHOULD
NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WITHOUT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  67  90  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  92  73 /   0   0  20  30
HARRISON AR       85  66  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  68  92  71 /   0  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  69  92  71 /   0  10  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  68  91  73 /   0   0  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      87  67  90  69 /   0  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        86  68  90  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     88  68  91  72 /   0   0  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
SEARCY AR         87  67  91  70 /   0  10  20  30
STUTTGART AR      87  68  91  71 /   0  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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