Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230900
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OBSERVATION DATA SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED OVER SERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE...OR STRETCHED FROM CAMDEN TO MEMPHIS THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG...DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THIS
TIME...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL BEGIN DEEPENING
FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND TX...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN LIFT NE OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO WED. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO
AR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF SHRA
EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM OK AND TX INTO AR. NEAR TERM AND HIGH RES
MODEL DATA IS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY CATEGORY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS NRLY
SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF AR...AND WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA THIS TUE.

FOR TONIGHT INTO WED...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NE OVER
AR...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. BY WED MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NE INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SFC LOW...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW OVER AR. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT UNDER THIS CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL TO FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...DATA SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN SOME CASES...REMAINING NEAR 40 DEG BY
12Z WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST
RAIN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT PRECIP
INTENSITIES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH...AND WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD...SOME SPOTS MAY SEEN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEEING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN AND
NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE
SFC...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL PRECIP TYPE...NO
WINTER WX HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE OF THE STATE BY WED NIGHT AND
THU...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME PATTERN THAT THEY HAVE
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW...NAMELY AN ACTIVE...HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. NUMEROUS SYSTEMS REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE USUAL TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
EXPECTED IN SUCH A PROGRESSIVE REGIME. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT ONE OF LATE AND WILL LEAN A LITTLE BIT IN ITS
DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH YET ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES STATES WITH A COLD FRONT SLICING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
STATE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST FRONTAL AS A WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
INITIALLY TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR
COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

PATTERN BASICALLY REPEATS ITSELF FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE
GENERATING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SAY RAIN WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE. MONDAY AT THIS POINT APPEARS DRY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     51  35  43  31 /  50  70  50  10
CAMDEN AR         53  37  46  31 /  60  60  20   0
HARRISON AR       48  32  38  28 /  50  50  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  35  44  30 /  60  60  20   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  37  45  32 /  60  70  30   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  39  47  33 /  50  70  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      49  33  42  28 /  60  60  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  34  41  30 /  50  60  50  10
NEWPORT AR        52  37  44  32 /  50  70  50  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  38  46  32 /  60  70  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  34  43  29 /  60  50  30   0
SEARCY AR         51  36  44  30 /  60  70  40  10
STUTTGART AR      52  38  46  31 /  60  70  30   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56





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