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000
FXUS64 KLZK 032216
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
415 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

FIRST OFF...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS A
LARGE PART OF THE FA. LACK OF MIXING...ALONG WITH A LOW SUN ANGLE...
HAVE SLOWED THE PROCESS OF ERODING THE CLOUDS. CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TNT. BREEZY SLY WINDS WL CONT TO BRING
SPRINGLIKE CONDS TO THE REGION FOR WED...WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF UPR
SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL.

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FCST WL BE THE INCRSG THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE THU THRU FRI PD. AN ARCTIC
CDFNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NWRN AR EARLY WED EVENING...AND SLOWLY
SAG INTO CNTRL AR BY THU MRNG...AND OUT OF SERN AR BY THU EVENING.
MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE THE ASSOCD SHALLOW COLDER AIRMASS THAT WL
DETERMINE THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT OCCURS AT A GIVEN
LOCATION THRU THE PD.

HAVE OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST DUE TO
IT/S HISTORY OF HANDLING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES. THE INITIAL PUSH
OF COLDER AIR WL LIKELY BE HELD UP BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA ...EVENTUALLY ADVECTING FURTHER SWD ON FRI.

AS FAR AS PRECIP TRENDS/TYPES GO...

LGT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DVLP JUST BEHIND THE FNT WED NGT...BUT
SHLD RMN THE LIQUID VARIETY ACRS MUCH OF THE FA. FCST SOUNDINGS INDC
A DECENT POCKET OF WARMER AIR ABV THE COLDER AIRMASS AT THE SFC ACRS
NRN AND WRN AR. THUS...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FRZG RAIN/SLEET ACRS
NRN AR THU AFTN AND THU NGT WITH A HIGHER CONCERN FOR A SIG ICING
EVENT. THE PRECIP WL EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OVR N-CNTRL
AR HEADING INTO FRI AS THE COLDER AIRMASS DEEPENS.

ACRS CNTRL AR...SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER CLOSE TO
THE FRZG MARK HEADING ON FRI MAKING THE PRECIP TYPE A DIFFICULT CALL.
EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF FRZG RAIN/RAIN/SOME SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRI. DUE TO THE FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO TREES AND POWER LINES. LOOK FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FRZG RAIN FRI EVENING BEFORE
ENDING.

FOR SRN AR...TEMPS WL RMN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THRU FRI. SOME
SLEET AND FRZG RAIN WL MIX IN BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS LATER FRI
EVENING...BUT NO SIG IMPACT EXPECTED.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FCST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE INTO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED
TO LATER FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINTER WEATHER LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFFECTING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE SOUTH. THEN DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

A COLD SURFACE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...AND WITH AN UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW...UPPER WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MID NIGHT...WITH
COLD RAIN OVER THE SOUTH...WHILE COLD RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET OVER CENTRAL AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD THE ENTIRE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND SNOW WILL BE
SEEN OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET WILL BE
SEEN IN CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
SEEN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. DUE TO THE 6 TO 12 HOUR DURATIONS...SOME
SIGNIFICANT ICING COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON TREES AND POWER LINES
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ROADWAYS WILL START WET...BUT SOME
FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...ELEVATED
HIGHWAYS AND NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS DO WARM A BIT...AND THE RAIN SLEET FREEZING SLEET
LINE MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF THE LITTLE ROCK AREA. THEN SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE LINE MOVES BACK SOUTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...UNTIL
ALL THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. OVERALL
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ARKANSAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
NORTH WHERE SOME SNOW COVER MAY BE SEEN.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...AMOUNTS AND
EXACT LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT PARTS OF ARKANSAS WILL GET A SECOND SHOT
OF WINTER WEATHER...AFTER THE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-PERRY-PIKE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-
WHITE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...59