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000
FXUS64 KLZK 120853
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO LESSEN WITH EACH RUN AND DIFFERENCES
NOW ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH
THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH ALL MODELS SLOWING THE
BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN AND NOT CLEARING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GFS/ECMWF BLEND HAS BEEN USED THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS THINKING AT
THIS POINT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS MINIMAL AS THEY
ARE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SITTING OVER
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY HAS RETREATED INTO MISSOURI...ALLOWING 50 PLUS
DEW POINT AIR TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE STATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND DRY DAY BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE HOISTED FOR TODAY.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A STOUT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE IMPULSES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES WITH A GENERAL RAIN FALL OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
LIFTS THROUGH. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION
MAY TAPER OFF BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH...AIDED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WINDY DAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY COME TO A CLOSE MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A DRY TUESDAY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH MONDAYS HIGH LIKELY OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LONG TERM....WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST TO START THE LONG
TERM...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS IS MUCH
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE EUROPEAN. THIS MEANS THE GFS
HAS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM...AND THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EUROPEAN. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT SMALL POPS IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     79  60  74  55 /  10  10  40  80
CAMDEN AR         79  62  78  63 /  10  10  30  80
HARRISON AR       77  59  72  48 /  10  10  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    79  61  77  58 /  10  10  40  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  62  77  59 /  10  10  30  80
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  79  64 /  10  10  20  80
MOUNT IDA AR      78  61  75  57 /  10  10  40  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  59  73  50 /  10  10  50  80
NEWPORT AR        79  61  75  57 /  10  10  30  80
PINE BLUFF AR     80  63  79  62 /  10  10  20  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  60  74  54 /  10  10  40  80
SEARCY AR         79  62  75  57 /  10  10  30  80
STUTTGART AR      79  62  77  60 /  10  10  20  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58