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000
FXUS64 KLZK 202326 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. As Tropical
Storm Cindy makes its way toward landfall, winds will gradually
become east and northeast and increase. Expect increasing clouds
as well, with light showers possible in the far south just before
the end of the period. Outer bands of Cindy will likely affect
more of southern Arkansas late Wednesday night and early Thursday,
and will be addressed in successive issuances. TAFs already out.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are the impacts of TS Cindy
on Ar. The heavy rain threat and possible impact on flooding and
rivers will be the main concern. The severe storm threat will be
lower but will be monitored.

Currently Tuesday afternoon, sunny to mostly sunny skies were seen
with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The surface high
pressure was over AR, with light winds to east winds less than 10
mph. Dewpoint temperatures were in the lower to mid 60s. The
upper low pressure trough was moving to the eastern US, with a
northwest upper flow still into AR. Looking the Gulf of Mex, TS
Cindy has formed, with a current nearly stationary movement. The
forecast does have TS Cindy gradually moving north to northwest,
then later affecting AR mid to late week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

The short term forecast will remain dry tonight and Wednesday,
with surface high pressure remaining the dominate feature over
the region. Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, while Highs in the mid
to upper 80s to a few readings near 90 on Wednesday. Some high
clouds will be seen over southern AR Wednesday, with a bit higher
east wind at 5 to 15 mph. Wednesday night to Thursday, increasing
clouds will be seen over AR, especially southern areas as TS Cindy
moves to the northwest to north, then northeast into Thursday to
Friday where it will affect AR the most. The outer spiral bands of
TS Cindy will bring some convection to southern AR late Wednesday
to Thursday to Friday. Breezy to at times windy conditions will
be seen, with rain amounts coming up to 1 to 2 inches through
Thursday over the south, then another 1 to 2 inches through
Friday. Isolated areas in southern to eastern AR may see 4 to 5
inches or a bit higher, based on speed of the system as it moves
through the region. Possible flash flooding and some river
flooding will be possible.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Early in the period, forecasts concerning Tropical Storm Cindy
will follow the position of the center provided by NHC. Early in
the weekend, west- northwesterly upper level flow will help push a
cold front towards, then through the mid south. This feature will
briefly provide a enhanced focus for efficient convective
precipitation, as well as helping to push the remnant tropical
system eastward. The speed of this push will be directly related
to any excessive rainfall potential.

Below normal temperatures will prevail during this period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57