Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 190554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS CONT TO DVLP AND EXPAND ACRS MAINLY NRN AND CNTRL AR...
RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SPREAD INTO
SRN AR THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. SOME LOCATIONS WL SEE CONDS DROP
TO IFR/LIFR CONDS AT TIMES THRU SUNRISE. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE HEADING INTO FRI AFTN AS LOW LVL MIXING INCREASES. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN. FURTHER
SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S...AS
WELL AS BEING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SOME SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED
AROUND THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY OF WARM HUMID
AIR AND THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS ACTIVITY COULD PULSE UP TO STRONG OR EVEN SVR LEVELS
AT SOME POINT.

HAVE POPS DECREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRI AND EVEN INTO SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE STATE.

HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE SAT...AND ESPECIALLY FOR SUN
AS A FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND INTERACT WITH WHAT
LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TO
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME AS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE EASTERN US DURING THE PERIOD...SHIFTING THE FORECAST AREA AWAY
FROM A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL KEEP WINDS FLOWING IN AN ELY TO NELY DIRECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND AND BECOME MORE SELY ON THURSDAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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