Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 160611 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1210 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017


Overall IFR flight conditions are expected Sunday night to Monday
morning with low clouds and areas of dense fog. Only patchy areas of
MVFR will be seen. Light rain and drizzle will be seen over much of
AR overnight, while far western AR will see more rain, showers and a
possible thunderstorm will be seen as a storm system approaches from
the west. Winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. A low
level jet has set up and some wind shear will be seen at all Taf
sites. Monday will see IFR becoming MVFR conditions with more
rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 649 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

With dense fog still noted acrs much of NRN/CNTRL AR, went ahead
and issued and advisory for the overnight hrs. Do expect some
improvement later tngt in areas where rain occurs. Temps will rmn
steady or sloly rise, and have indcd this in the temp trends. All
updates have been sent. /44/


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Data from KLZK radar indicates scattered, light returns
across western and south central portions of the forecast area.
Surface observations indicate areas of fog remaining, generally
along and east of a line from Harrison, to Pine Bluff. Satellite
imagery has indicates some recent clearing of the fog.

Forecasts remain on track with regard to approaching southern stream
energy, and associated developing surface reflection, to affect
the forecast area by late tonight. Cold frontal boundary will help
focus convection during peak heating on Monday. Forecast soundings
suggest a few marginally severe storms possible, with brief
damaging wind gusts the main threat.

Frontal boundary will be in the vicinity of southern sections of
the state on Tuesday, and will still be able to promote
widely scattered, weak convection.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
An upper low pressure system will be over the Midwest and desert
southwest to begin the period. The upper low in the Midwest moves to
the east coast Wednesday night and the southern low moves only
slightly eastward toward the Texas Panhandle. By Thursday, ridging
over the southeast U.S. amplifies and the southern upper low moves
northeast into the Plains. The upper ridge continues to strengthen
into the Appalachians and Ohio River Valley Friday. Another upper
low develops in the desert southwest Saturday night and will move
eastward Sunday across Texas.

Models are in agreement that an active weather pattern will continue
for Arkansas. A front will be stalled south and east of Arkansas to
begin the period. Rain chances will continue through Thursday as the
moisture over rides the front. Low pressure develops on the front
and brings it into Arkansas Thursday. This warm front will move
north through the state by Friday. Friday night should be dry, then
a cold front moves into western Arkansas early Saturday with more
showers and thunderstorms. Will keep rain chances in the forecast
through Sunday. No really cold air is expected through the long term
period. Expect temperatures to be near normal to above normal.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday FOR Baxter-Boone-

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