Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 231749
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FQT IFR CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS/RA/DZ/BR. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOST
AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR. RAIN SHOULD END IN CENTRAL AND SRN AR BUT
WILL CONTINUE AT KHRO AND KBPK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BECOMING VFR
AROUND SUNRISE MON. INCREASINGLY GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...

LOW PRES WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF SERN AR ATTM AND WL CONT LIFT NEWD
THIS AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WITH FURTHER UPDATES EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF FM
THE W THIS AFTN. THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS CONT TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIP TRENDS...WITH MOST OF THE FA EXPECTED TO SEE A
LULL IN THE RAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPR LVL SHRTWV/ASSOCD CDFNT WL AFFECT THE FA
LATE TODAY AND TNGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYS...MAINLY OVR NRN AR.

INCRSG S/SWLY WINDS THIS AFTN WL ALLOW FOR DECENT WARMING LATE...
ESP ACRS SWRN AR. GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FROPA LATER TNGT AND MOST OF MON. APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A LAKE
WIND ADVY WL BE NEEDED AND WL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTN FCST. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE NOTED ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS GOING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL DRY OUT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BECOME WINDY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS FROM
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
KEPT A LOT OF MOISTURE FROM GETTING INTO ARKANSAS. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TODAY BUT WILL MAINLY BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO AN END. ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTER BEING ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD
TO COOLING FROM THE NORTH. WHILE MODELS AGREE THAT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK SLOWLY TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS...THE
TIMING OF THE HIGH IS NOT IN SYNC. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVAL THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO
INCLUDED CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE HIGH HEADS
TO THE EAST...IT WILL WARM TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AS NEXT WEEKEND
FINISHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  40  53  32 / 100  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  43  60  35 /  80  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       64  36  50  29 /  70  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  41  58  34 /  70  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  42  57  34 / 100  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  43  60  36 / 100  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  40  57  33 /  60  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  38  50  29 /  80  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        64  41  54  32 / 100  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  43  59  35 / 100  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  39  54  32 /  70  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         64  41  56  32 / 100  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  42  58  34 / 100  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.