Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  89  68  89 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       66  85  66  87 /  30  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  89  69  91 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  89  67  91 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  86  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        65  89  68  90 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  89  68  91 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53


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