984
FXUS64 KLZK 081121
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

+ For the rest of the work week each afternoon will feature the
potential for showers and thunderstorms, primarily driven by the
heat of the day each day. Showers and storms are expected to have
their highest coverage each afternoon/evening through Wednesday,
with lower coverage expected late this week into next weekend.

+ Temperatures will remain quite warm this week, but the chance of
afternoon showers and storms each day will prevent the heat from
building up into dangerous territory. It`s still early July in
Arkansas, it`ll still be hot and humid, but at levels that are
common in the summer instead of well above normal.

+ While severe weather and flooding aren`t expected to be
widespread concerns, the types of storms we`ll see this week will
be very tall and very slow moving. Very tall storms are prone to
collapse dragging strong to damaging winds down towards the ground
with little notice (microbursts) and slow moving tall storms are
notorious heavy rainfall producers, so localized flash flooding is
also possible. While neither threat is expected to become common
or frequent, we will have to watch for the potential for both
throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

IR satellite early this morning shows a band of mid and high level
clouds mainly over portions of northwest, western, and northern
Arkansas. Some mid level cloudiness was noted over northeast
Arkansas early this morning as well. Underneath the warming cloud
tops are a decaying band of showers over northwest, western, and
northern Arkansas with a few isolated showers this morning. This
activity is being driven by ascent ahead a shortwave currently
over portions of southeastern KS and northeast Oklahoma. Hi-res
CAMs and short term guidance early this morning shows shower
activity becoming more isolated by sunrise as it treks east across
the state.

As we head into this afternoon, there will be a plentiful amount
of moisture to work with along with sufficient daytime heating,
weak lift from a slow moving upper trough, and little in the way
of wind shear. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be higher
than Monday(30-40%) with coverage likely to be in the 40-50%
range. Since there a weak steering flow aloft, showers and
thunderstorms will be proficient rainfall producers that will in
most cases drop a quick 1 to 2" of rainfall. Some of the more
proficient showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
2-3" rainfall rates as PW values between 1.75 to 2.00" inches and
in some cases just a tad above 2" inches. The higher PW values
coupled with weak steering flow and no appreciable shear aloft
will lead to a localized flash flood threat for areas under
thunderstorms. In addition to the localized flash flood threat,
there is a damaging wind threat and a few microburst are also
possible from collapsing thunderstorms.

For Wednesday, the upper trough will shift a bit further south and
east over Arkansas. Hot and humid conditions will continue to
prevail over the state with the bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms activity southward as drier air nudges into portions
of northwestern Arkansas with shower and thunderstorm activity
more isolated to scattered over that region. Elsewhere with the
state, a repeat perform in coverage of shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected with a threat of localized flash flooding on
Wednesday.

For Thursday through early next week...Upper trough will push
east of the area with some guidance showing the trough quickly
dissipating east of the state. In either case, rainfall chances
will become isolated to scattered and driven by afternoon heating
each afternoon through the weekend. By early next week, upper
level ridging will form and strengthen along the Gulf coast to
encompass much of the southern US. Temperatures through through
Wednesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s as clouds and
precipitation will keep heat index values through Wednesday below
100 degrees. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s by
Friday through early next week with heat index values approaching
105 degrees with some guidance showing some areas in eastern and
central Arkansas possibly meeting the threshold this weekend. If
further guidance shows this trend, then Heat Advisories may be
need for portions of eastern and central Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Isolated showers over northern, central, and northeast Arkansas
will persist through the morning hour. Additional isolated showers
and thunderstorms over eastern and northeastern Oklahoma will move
into the state later today. Hi-res CAMs and short term guidance
has consistently shown an uptick in coverage as early as 14-15Z at
northern terminals. By this afternoon, central and southern
terminals will see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity
with PROB30 groups at each TAF site denoting the current thinking
for activity at each terminal. The aviation impacts today will be
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds and heavy rainfall that could
briefly reduce visibilities to MVFR/IFR for a short duration at
terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light S/SW winds will
prevail through the day then become light and variable after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  71  88  71 /  60  30  60  10
Camden AR         92  72  88  72 /  60  40  70  20
Harrison AR       86  69  87  68 /  60  30  30  10
Hot Springs AR    91  71  88  71 /  60  30  70  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74  88  74 /  60  30  70  10
Monticello AR     92  74  88  73 /  60  30  80  20
Mount Ida AR      89  71  88  70 /  60  30  70  10
Mountain Home AR  85  69  87  69 /  50  30  40  10
Newport AR        90  73  89  73 /  60  30  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     92  73  87  72 /  60  30  70  20
Russellville AR   90  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  10
Searcy AR         89  71  89  72 /  60  30  60  10
Stuttgart AR      91  74  88  74 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly