Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161010
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
410 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Short Term...Today through Saturday night

Overall pattern expected to remain progressive through the period
with several rounds of precipitation to deal with. Models overall in
good agreement and a blend of forecast solutions is preferred.

Water vapor imagery reveals the major players quite clearly this
morning, namely broad ridging centered over the western Gulf of
Mexico and a positively tilted trough over the west. Similar
pattern on Thursday brought spring like temperatures across the
state but a dramatic change is currently underway.

Latest surface analysis reveals a cold front over the northwest part
of the state. Boundary is a little slower versus previous thinking
but still expected to move southward this morning. Front forecast to
be over central sections around daybreak and out of the southern
part of the state around noon or so. Temperature contrast across
this boundary is dramatic with almost all locations seeing daily
highs early today with readings falling in its wake.

Temperatures will likely steady out during the day but it still
looks like late afternoon temperatures will average about 25 degrees
colder versus Thursday. Broken band of mainly post frontal rain will
accompany the boundary but overall precipitation amounts are not
expected to be significant with the highest amounts over the east
and northeast.

Aforementioned boundary is expected to stall to the south of the state
with clouds and minimal precipitation chances continuing. Next upper
impulse will lift out of the previously mentioned trough and bring
increasing moisture back into the state. Widespread rain will spread
over the state tonight and Saturday. There is an outside chance, but
even less than this time last night, of a little winter precip over
the north but no impacts are expected with temperatures running a
few degrees above freezing.

Another cold front will push through the state Saturday afternoon
moving the the rain out with some drying to close out the short term
period. Temperatures will average below normal for Saturday/Saturday
night.
&&

.Long Term...Sunday through Thursday

The gist of it...a high amplitude upper level pattern featuring a
western trough and an eastern ridge, along with a slow moving or
stalled frontal boundary across the region, will persist through
much of the long term. This will produce a prolonged period of
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across Arkansas, with the
possibility of upwards of 4 inches of rain.

In more detail...agreement on the overall pattern remains fairly
high. All guidance shows a high amplitude upper level pattern
developing in the long term period, with a western trough/eastern
ridge setup and Arkansas lying beneath southwesterly upper flow. At
the surface, a frontal boundary will be parallel to the upper flow
and as such will make slow southeastward progress during the first
half of next week. Subsequently Arkansas will experience a prolonged
period of deep moisture return and widespread rainfall. The
questions are, how much rain, and where will it fall. Unfortunately
those details are not well agreed upon at the moment. Differences in
both positioning and timing of the front mean significantly
different rainfall totals for any given location.

In general, right now it appears the northwest half of the state,
generally along/northwest of the I-30/US-67 corridor, is the favored
area for the heaviest rainfall of the Sun-Wed time frame next week.
Expect 2-4" of rain to fall in those parts of the state, with the
possibility of higher amounts. This is good news as those parts of
the state still have ongoing drought conditions. It also is good
news in terms of the flooding threat as those regions would be able
to take on more water before saturation occurs and flooding becomes
a concern. That said, the location and amounts of heaviest rains
could change so it`s probably a good idea to continue to monitor
forecasts in the days ahead.

Lastly, depending on which model you believe (frontal location and
surface temperature profiles) there could be a chance for some
wintry precipitation in northern Arkansas. Have continued to
advertise rain-only for the time being as A) should any wintry
precip occur, it is not likely to cause problems and B) confidence
in the occurrence of such precipitation is quite low at this point
in time.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     49  35  48  36 /  60  50  90  10
Camden AR         64  43  50  41 /  40  60  80  20
Harrison AR       44  34  50  33 /  20  50  80   0
Hot Springs AR    59  40  50  38 /  40  70  90  10
Little Rock   AR  56  39  50  39 /  40  60  90  10
Monticello AR     64  43  49  41 /  50  60  80  20
Mount Ida AR      58  40  52  38 /  40  70  90  10
Mountain Home AR  47  34  48  34 /  30  40  90   0
Newport AR        51  37  47  36 /  60  40  90  10
Pine Bluff AR     62  41  49  40 /  50  60  90  10
Russellville AR   54  39  50  36 /  40  60  90  10
Searcy AR         53  38  48  36 /  60  50  90  10
Stuttgart AR      57  39  48  39 /  50  60  90  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...GOUDSWARD / Long Term...DALTON



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