Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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391
FXUS64 KLZK 250938
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
338 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Current surface analysis shows the cold front which moved through
yesterday well into the Tennessee valley to the Gulf of Mexico
this morning, with high pressure in the high plains. Gradient
between the systems is still keeping elevated winds over the area,
but this should relax after sunrise. High temperatures today will
range from the lower 40s in the higher elevations of the Ozarks,
to the mid 50s south--a welcome change (at least in my not-so-
humble opinion).

High pressure will move into the region tonight, with little cloud
cover and light winds. As a result, we will be reminded tonight
that it is still, indeed, winter. Lows will range from the mid 20s
to the lower to mid 30s. Even though plants have been blooming, as
things have been warm as of late, we`ve had freezes in the last
week to week and a half in most areas. Since freezing
temperatures are still well within the climatological window of
possibility, we`re not going to issue a freeze-related headline at
this time. Will opt instead to address freezing temperatures in a
special weather statement and other outlooks and forecasts.

The high will move east on Sunday. The aforementioned frontal
boundary, which will have stalled to the south of the region
tonight, will move back to the north. Low pressure will develop
along it, providing uplift into the region. At the same time,
a longwave trough digging down into the plains will provide some
upper support over the region, with showers and thunderstorms
developing Sunday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will begin gradual warming on Sunday with the
departure of the high.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Southwest flow will be over Arkansas Monday as an upper trough
enters the Pacific Northwest. This trough moves into the Rockies
Tuesday and into the Plains Tuesday night...passing through Arkansas
Wednesday. Northwest flow returns to Arkansas Wednesday night as a
large upper ridge builds over the west coast. This northwest flow
will continue through Friday.

Models are in good agreement this morning. A warm front will move
through Arkansas Monday. Showers will be ending in the afternoon
from west to east. A cold front in the Plains Tuesday will move into
northwest parts of the state Tuesday night. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the state Wednesday night and Thursday behind the
cold front and continue over the area Friday.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated for Monday and
Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front and
close to normal temperatures will be on tap for Wednesday through
Friday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Biggest fire weather issue in the forecast is going to be low
humidity today, with afternoon minimums bottoming out around the
20th percentile. While winds are elevated now, they will diminish
later this morning. So, while humidity will be very low, winds and
10-hour dead fuel moisture should remain away from critical
thresholds. Even so, wildfire danger is moderate over the entire
state, so any outdoor burning should be done with caution.

Humidity will increase on Sunday, as another system affects the
state, and brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms. By mid
week next week, lower humidity will be seen again, though not
quite as low as today.
&&

.Climate...
So, yes, we haven`t seen a great deal of freezes this February.
However, as I previously mentioned, it`s still well within the
climatological window of possibility. There have been last freezes
that have been earlier than the last few days of February.

Using Little Rock as an example...there have been quite a few
early last freezes before February 26th.

February 25, 1938
February 25, 1910
February 23, 1953
February 22, 1918
February 22, 1908
February 22, 1907
February 22, 1882
February 21, 1905
February 20, 2012
February 19, 1883

Am I saying that February 26 will be the last freeze here? Not at
all. Going by the climatological averages, the last freeze for
Little Rock is usually around March 19th. The latest freeze ever
recorded was April 19th. So, yeah, don`t roll out the welcome
wagon for spring temperatures taking hold just yet. You might be
a little disappointed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     49  27  55  42 /   0   0  30  70
Camden AR         54  29  64  50 /   0   0  20  70
Harrison AR       44  28  53  39 /   0   0  20  40
Hot Springs AR    51  28  58  45 /   0   0  30  70
Little Rock   AR  51  30  59  45 /   0   0  20  70
Monticello AR     53  29  63  52 /   0   0  10  60
Mount Ida AR      52  28  58  45 /   0   0  30  70
Mountain Home AR  47  27  54  39 /   0   0  20  50
Newport AR        48  29  55  42 /   0   0  20  70
Pine Bluff AR     51  30  61  48 /   0   0  20  70
Russellville AR   50  27  57  43 /   0   0  30  60
Searcy AR         50  25  57  42 /   0   0  20  70
Stuttgart AR      50  32  59  46 /   0   0  20  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...51



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