Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KLZK 090541 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some mainly high
clouds will drift across the area...with a few low but VFR CIGS
possible. A cold front will move through from north to south
through midday...with an increase in wind speed along with a wind
shift to the northwest.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

Cool and dry weather prevails throughout the period as deep longwave
troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS with dry
northwesterlies aloft and little low level moisture. Temperatures
will be just below average over the weekend, with lows in the 20s and
highs in the 40s/50s (and 30s in higher Ozarks). With no precip and
dry conditions, fire weather is the main concern for the short term.

In the near term (Friday), I`ve adjusted temperatures downwards a
few degrees. Even with plenty of insolation, temperatures have
struggled to rise today.

For the rest of the short term period, there is very little in the
way of any model discrepancies relevant to the LZK CWA. A trough
will move through the region through the first half of Saturday,
resulting in a wind shift and stronger surface pressure gradient
winds. Winds will generally be out of the northwest at 10 to 15
knots with gusts approaching 20 knots.

At 850MB on Saturday, winds are expected to be in the 30-40 knot
range. I anticipate the boundary layer to become well-mixed tomorrow,
so I wouldn`t be surprised to see forthcoming hi-res model runs
advertise a stronger downward flux of momentum, resulting in gusts
higher than currently forecast. If such comes to fruition, somewhat
high gusts may enhance fire weather conditions. Additionally, a
(lake) wind advisory may need to be issued. This forecast already
goes above guidance a bit, so will need to be monitored by
subsequent shifts.

By Sunday, pressure gradient will relax a bit such that winds will
be a lesser issue than on Saturday. Southwest winds through the
boundary layer will advect a bit warmer (still dry) temperatures,
resulting in near average temperatures throughout Arkansas.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

An upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. to begin the long term
period with an upper ridge over the west. This pattern will continue
through the period. Northwest flow aloft will continue over
Arkansas.

Dry weather is expected through the long term period. Temperatures
in the 60s are expected for Monday before a cold front moves through
the state. This dry cold front will bring cooler temperatures again.
Another cold front moves through on Thursday, otherwise high
pressure will be in control of the Arkansas weather.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.