Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG. DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHG WAS TO INCRS CLOUD COVER A BIT ACRS
NRN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPR LVL LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG
THE OK/KS BRDR. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHGS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG
FORMS...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...REINFORCING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING
TO PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS IN THE COURSER MODELS ARE VERY WEAK...AND
EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL...SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. THE DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AFTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY...TUE AND WED WILL SEE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THAT
WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PENETRATE INTO THE HIGH FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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