Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG PRESENT IN VARIOUS PLACES. THIS HAS CREPT INTO A
FEW TERMINALS AS WELL...WITH ENOUGH FOG TO YIELD VV-OVC002 CIGS AT
ARKADELPHIA...THOUGH ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. IN ANY
CASE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 15Z AT THE LATEST SO IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT TODAY
IN THE NORTHWEST AS PRES GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT...AND WILL SLACKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. WILL ALSO SEE CU FIELD AROUND 4-5K FT
AGL DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE FOR RETURN TO
SKC AFTER SUNSET OR ROUGHLY 00Z-02Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64




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