Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211814
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
114 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE

Mid and high lvl clouds wl cont to incrs this aftn, assocd with
Tropical Storm Cindy in the Gulf. Lower clouds /MVFR CIGS/ wl
gradually overspread most of the FA fm the SE thru tngt, with MVFR
conds prevailing on Thu for most locations. Rain chances wl also
begin to incrs fm the SE tngt and Thu as well, with the highest
chances noted ovr the SE half of AR. Sfc wind wl generally be fm
the E/SE thru the pd, with speeds increasing as the PD progresses.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night The main story in the
near term will be the approach of Tropical Storm Cindy. The system
is expected to make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana line during
the predawn hours Thursday. From there, the system should make it
into southern Arkansas late Thursday night/early Friday.

Before the remnants of Cindy arrive, it will be mostly dry today.
Clouds will increase over the southeast half of the state, and
cannot rule out isolated showers. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal, and a little below average in the southeast.

Going forward, have rain chances steadily increasing from the
south tonight and Thursday. The northward extend of the rain
will be dependent on the track of Cindy. The latest guidance
suggests an abrupt turn to the east toward the Tennessee Valley
late Thursday/Thursday night. That would leave northwest
sections of Arkansas with little in the way of precipitation.

The turn to the east will happen due to a cold front barreling
through the Plains. As the cold front nears, the turn will
occur.

Given the expected track, the bulk of the rain will be over
southern/eastern sections. Amounts through Thursday night in the
south/east should range from a half inch to inch and a half, with
locally over two inches. Rain will continue into the extended
period.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
By Friday morning the remnants of Cindy should be over east
central Arkansas and making a quick exit to the east of the state.
This will occur about the same time as a frontal boundary arrives
from the north. Thus it seems a near certainty that rain is in
store for the bulk of the state along/southeast of the I-30 and
US-67 corridors. The end of the short term (Thursday night) into
the first part of the long term period will be the time frame
where the most precipitation occurs with the remnants of Cindy. As
expected with a tropical system, this will be a very efficient
rainfall producer. And PWAT values are forecast to be
exceptionally high, in the 2.50- 2.75" range across central and
eastern portions of the state during the day Friday. Have foregone
issuing any Flash Flood advisories for the time, but those may be
required in the future.

Otherwise, the aforementioned frontal boundary will sweep into
southern Arkansas during the weekend, providing a focus for further
convection on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Only
scattered storms are forecast that day though, and that will
mainly in the southern parts of the state. Beyond Sunday evening,
chances for rainfall will diminish greatly in the long term period
as the upper pattern amplifies and places Arkansas beneath
persistent northwesterly flow aloft.

Temperatures will be around normal, except for cloud cover and
rainfall. Expect to see highs below normal on Friday and Saturday,
with a slight warming trend during the first half of next week.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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