Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51







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