Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 101717 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1117 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals.
SW winds will continue to be gusty through the afternoon today.
Wind speeds should be around 10 to 15 kts with gusts close to the
20 to 25 kt range, but will weaken near sunset. Similar
conditions are expected for Monday, with SW winds once again
picking up during the late morning hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 603 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017)
DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable this morning...with SW winds
increasing for the late morning into the afternoon hrs. Winds
should remain less than 20 kts however. Expect winds to weaken
after sunset...with VFR conditions expected to dominate through
this TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 331 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Fire danger concerns will continue to be the primary forecast concern
in the short term period...

Winds will increase from the SW through mid afternoon...with mainly
8 to 12 kts expected...with a few gusts. Dewpts will generally be in
the 20s...and with temps in the 50s to low 60s this afternoon...RH
values will bottom out in the 20 to 40 percent range. These values
will be a bit improved over Sat afternoon conditions...but the wild
fire danger will be a remain elevated once again...with a moderate
to high wild fire danger continuing. Several burn bans
remain...with additional counties possible in the coming days due to
the lack of rain and dry air.

Mon will bring stronger winds during the afternoon hrs...along with
lower RH values due to warmer temps in the 60s to low 70s. As a
result...may need to consider enhanced wild fire danger wording for
Mon as near Red Flag conditions may be seen. Will continue to
monitor the data over the next 12-24 hrs...with a Fire Danger
statement likely issued this morning describing Mon concerns. If
conditions come in drier...will then upgrade products to Fire
Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning in future forecast issuances as
necessary.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

For the first time in what seems a very long time, there are some
notable model differences to discuss this morning. Granted these
differences do not show up until Saturday and obviously a lot can
change between now and then, but at least there is a chance of some
precipitation for at least part of the state.

ECMWF solution has been the preferred model the past few nights and
remains dry through the entire period. Meanwhile the GFS solution is
now generating some precipitation for mainly the south late in the
period. Will temper back precipitation chances somewhat with the
ECMWF remaining dry and take the ever popular wait and see approach.
Otherwise a blend of model solutions will be used to take care of
any remaining, mainly subtle, differences between them.

The period initiates with the ever persistent western ridge and
eastern trough pattern in place. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
much cooler versus what was seen on Monday behind a departing
boundary. The persistent northwest flow will continue with yet
another boundary coming in for Thursday and like the ones preceding
it, will move through with little fanfare. Temperatures will stay
seasonably cool.

Western ridge looks to begin breaking down late next week as pacific
energy moves onshore. This will dampen the upper flow and allow for
warmer readings. Models agree in another boundary for very late in
the period with the ECMWF remaining dry but the GFS generating some
precip over mainly the south to round out the period. Stay tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...CROSS



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