Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 182009 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE STATE
AND ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  20  20  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  20  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  20  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  20  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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