Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KLZK 131143
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

An upper ridge will remain over the Midwest today with southwest
flow aloft over Arkansas. A large upper trough dives into the
Rockies today and a cut off low develops over the desert southwest
tonight. This upper low remains in place through Thursday night.

Expect an increase in clouds today ahead of the approaching system.
Arkansas will be in the warm sector Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture
will increase across the area today through Thursday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase in the west tonight and
spread eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
Thursday afternoon. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
in the west, Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Also, heavy rain will be possible Thursday night which could lead to
some flash flooding. A large area of two to three inch rainfall
amounts is expected.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s and Thursday highs will
be in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and Thursday night lows will be in the upper
40s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A cold front will be tracking throughout the state from northwest to
southeast during the day on Friday. POP chances will remained
elevated in terms of scattered showers and storms for both Friday
and into Saturday, especially across central, southern, and eastern
Arkansas. On Saturday, the cold front will becoming sluggish
transitioning into a stationary boundary just to the southeast of
Arkansas with the boundary draped across the Deep South and southern
Mid-South regions of the CONUS. Expect mild temperatures to continue
across the CWA as the airmass with colder and drier conditions will
remain across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS, partly to
mostly cloud sky conditions, and increased POP chances across
central, southern, and eastern parts of Arkansas.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY:

On Sunday, the stationary boundary will finally be pushed far enough
away from Arkansas to the Southeastern region of the CONUS as POP
chances will decrease throughout the day on Sunday. In tandem, a
second, dry cold front will be pushing through the Natural State
from north to south. It will be noted that temperatures on both
Monday and Tuesday with respect to climatological normals for this
time of the year will be below normal. Monday and Tuesday morning
low temperatures will likely be in frost and freeze territory,
across northern Arkansas on Monday morning and across both central
and northern Arkansas on Tuesday morning. Sensitive vegetation will
need to be protect as temperatures will be cold enough to harm or
kill plants. It will be likely that frost and freeze products will
be warranted on both Monday and Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Southerly flow will bring moisture and clouds into the area. Low
clouds are expected this morning, then will break up by late morning.
Winds will be gusty through the day. A chance of showers will
return to the west late in the period. VFR and MVFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  62  76  60 /  10  20  70  90
Camden AR         77  63  78  62 /  10  30  70  90
Harrison AR       77  60  78  51 /  10  30  70  70
Hot Springs AR    77  63  79  60 /  10  40  70  90
Little Rock   AR  79  64  79  63 /  10  40  70  90
Monticello AR     77  64  78  65 /  10  30  70  90
Mount Ida AR      77  63  79  59 /  10  40  80  90
Mountain Home AR  78  60  78  54 /  10  30  70  80
Newport AR        77  63  76  60 /   0  20  70  90
Pine Bluff AR     77  63  77  63 /  10  30  70  90
Russellville AR   77  61  80  59 /  10  40  70  90
Searcy AR         77  60  76  60 /   0  30  70  90
Stuttgart AR      77  64  76  63 /   0  30  60  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.