Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301601
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AN MCS...NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
BOONE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN FINALLY BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWEST
BY MID MORNING...AND IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF JASPER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAX TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  65  89  67 /  70  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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