Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211947
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.Short Term...Tonight thru Friday night...
More of the same is on tap for the short term period, with the upper
level ridge remaining entrenched over the area. Hot and humid
conditions will prevail, and I have extended the heat advisory
through Saturday evening, as heat index values should top 105
degrees across the entire forecast area.

There has been a lot of interest in the potential for the first 100
degree temperature reading of the season in Little Rock. If it does
not happen this afternoon, I think there is a fairly good chance it
will happen tomorrow.

Convection occurring this afternoon should taper off fairly quickly
after sundown, and I would expect more of the same tomorrow. The
last couple of days temperatures have surged quickly in the morning
hours and convection has been firing up around 11 AM CDT. I would
anticipate a similar scenario for tomorrow.

&&

.Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday...
The upper ridge responsible for the ongoing heat wave will begin
to break down as we get into the weekend. Eventually this will
lead to some notable relief from the excessively warm temperatures
and heat index values...but this will not be until after Tuesday
of next week. In the meantime highs ranging from the mid 90s at
higher elevations of Northwest Arkansas to near 100 degrees for
most of the rest of the forecast area will continue through the
weekend.

Monday and Tuesday onward will feature more cloud cover and an
uptick in convection as upper heights lower and shower and
thunderstorm coverage increases. Have 30-40 percent rain chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the forecast beginning Monday
and lasting through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  98  77  97 /  20  20  20  20
Camden AR         77  99  77  97 /  20  30  20  30
Harrison AR       75  95  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    77  99  77  97 /  20  20  20  30
Little Rock   AR  79 100  79  98 /  20  20  20  30
Monticello AR     78  98  77  97 /  20  20  20  30
Mount Ida AR      75  98  76  96 /  10  20  20  30
Mountain Home AR  75  97  76  97 /  20  20  10  20
Newport AR        78  99  77  98 /  20  20  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     77  97  76  96 /  20  20  20  30
Russellville AR   76  99  76  98 /  20  20  20  20
Searcy AR         77  99  77  98 /  20  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR      79  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR Boone-
Marion-Newton-Searcy.

&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...64



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