Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 252309 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
609 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
Some high clouds continue to move over the state...which will
likely persist through much of the period. Some patchy fog could
be seen...mainly at ADF. Most areas should remain dry through this
TAF period...with the exception being the NRN terminals. Expect
some chances for SHRA/TSRA to increase for HRO and BPK starting
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016)
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain with the
front system mainly on Wednesday. Otherwise, an overall dry
forecast with at or above normal temperatures.
A dry and mild temperature day has been seen across AR. Surface and
upper high pressure are the dominate feature over the region. Some
upper level moisture with clouds have streamed over the region
filtering the sunlight today. Temperatures were warming to the mid
and upper 70s, with a few 80s.
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night
Tonight will be partly cloudy with mild lows in the 50s. Wednesday
will see more increasing clouds, especially in the northwest as
the weather system approaches. Models are only showing a slight to
low chance of rain with this system for AR, to to lack of
moisture. Rain amounts are expected to be around a quarter inch of
less over AR. This front moves into AR Wednesday night to Thursday
morning, while models only have it making it to northern AR before
it lift back to the north later Thursday to early Friday. Most of
any rain will be possible over northern to central AR. Southern AR
may see very little to no rain. Temperatures will only dip a few
degrees behind this weak front, and then warm again into the end
of the week back above normal values as upper level high pressure
builds back into the region.
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
Not too much to talk about in the long term. Models are in good
agreement, only diverging slightly at the very end of the period.
High pressure will build into the region Thursday after a fropa and
move to the east at the start of this period. For the first half of
this period, upper ridging will keep the area underneath northwest
to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, southerly flow will advect
normal to above average temperatures into the region. Subsidence
aloft, dry air in the mid-levels, and a lack of any real forcing
mechanism will keep the probability of rain out of the forecast. The
biggest concern through this entire period is some fog in the
mornings, especially over the weekend as winds will be light and
radiational cooling will be greatest.
The next chance of precipitation in the long term will be early to
mid next week as models are in decent agreement showing a trough
digging into the plains.