Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 100931
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
331 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Fire danger concerns will continue to be the primary forecast concern
in the short term period...

Winds will increase from the SW through mid afternoon...with mainly
8 to 12 kts expected...with a few gusts. Dewpts will generally be in
the 20s...and with temps in the 50s to low 60s this afternoon...RH
values will bottom out in the 20 to 40 percent range. These values
will be a bit improved over Sat afternoon conditions...but the wild
fire danger will be a remain elevated once again...with a moderate
to high wild fire danger continuing. Several burn bans
remain...with additional counties possible in the coming days due to
the lack of rain and dry air.

Mon will bring stronger winds during the afternoon hrs...along with
lower RH values due to warmer temps in the 60s to low 70s. As a
result...may need to consider enhanced wild fire danger wording for
Mon as near Red Flag conditions may be seen. Will continue to
monitor the data over the next 12-24 hrs...with a Fire Danger
statement likely issued this morning describing Mon concerns. If
conditions come in drier...will then upgrade products to Fire
Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning in future forecast issuances as
necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

For the first time in what seems a very long time, there are some
notable model differences to discuss this morning. Granted these
differences do not show up until Saturday and obviously a lot can
change between now and then, but at least there is a chance of some
precipitation for at least part of the state.

ECMWF solution has been the preferred model the past few nights and
remains dry through the entire period. Meanwhile the GFS solution is
now generating some precipitation for mainly the south late in the
period. Will temper back precipitation chances somewhat with the
ECMWF remaining dry and take the ever popular wait and see approach.
Otherwise a blend of model solutions will be used to take care of
any remaining, mainly subtle, differences between them.

The period initiates with the ever persistent western ridge and
eastern trough pattern in place. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
much cooler versus what was seen on Monday behind a departing
boundary. The persistent northwest flow will continue with yet
another boundary coming in for Thursday and like the ones preceding
it, will move through with little fanfare. Temperatures will stay
seasonably cool.

Western ridge looks to begin breaking down late next week as pacific
energy moves onshore. This will dampen the upper flow and allow for
warmer readings. Models agree in another boundary for very late in
the period with the ECMWF remaining dry but the GFS generating some
precip over mainly the south to round out the period. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  34  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         61  34  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       56  34  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  59  35  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      61  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  32  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        55  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  35  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   59  32  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  32  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  35  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...56



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