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278
FXUS64 KLZK 221600
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1100 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Overall forecast philosophy remains constant concerning sensible
weather elements in the short term. Center of tropical depression
Cindy appears to be just southeast of Lufkin Texas, per
subjective surface analysis and data from GOES-16.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 725 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017)

AVIATION...
Widespread low clouds will be noted today/tonight, with
MVFR/IFR conditions common. There will be isolated showers
this morning, with rain/embedded thunderstorms becoming
likely this afternoon into tonight. Rain will be the
most widespread/heavy over the southeast half of the
state.

Clouds and rain will be associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cindy that will arrive from Louisiana
tonight.

Winds will be east/southeast through tonight, with
gusty conditions near the track of Cindy over southern
and eastern sections of the state. (46)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Tropical Storm Cindy was moving inland over southwest Louisiana
early this morning. The system will weaken and track into
southern Arkansas early Friday morning, and will exit to the
east of the state Friday afternoon.

The remnants of Cindy will likely bring heavy to excessive
rain to areas south and east of Little Rock. Two to five inches
of rain is expected across the south and east. Rain could be
enhanced near the track of the system tonight/early Friday, and
this may lead to totals over five inches in isolated areas.

This much rain will be possible considering precipitable water
values /PWATs/ surrounding Cindy. PWATs over 2.5 inches are noted
in guidance across the south/east, which is higher than June
maxes locally looking back at past sounding data. These
historically high values will certainly make showers/storms more
efficient rain makers.

Given the scenario, a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for
much of the southeast half of Arkansas tonight into Friday
morning.

In addition to the heavy rain concern, a few storms could
be severe across the southeast counties. Damaging winds
and a brief weak tornado or two are possible. This would
mainly happen this afternoon and evening.

The remnants of Cindy will take an abrupt turn to the east
toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday due to a cold front
arriving from the Plains. The front will keep hit and miss thunder
in the forecast heading into the first part of the extended
period.

As far as temperatures, below average readings are
expected during the daytime today/Friday, with above
average readings at night.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
A front will have moved into Arkansas from the north by Saturday
morning, and will linger near the AR/LA border Saturday and Sunday.
While much of the forecast area will be dry, some rain chances will
remain in the forecast through the weekend in the far south to
account for possible convection. By late Sunday night, a deepening
upper trough over the eastern US should displace this frontal
boundary far enough south that dry conditions will be seen across
Arkansas during the start of the work week. Beyond Tuesday or
Wednesday, model agreement really begins to lessen. Kept a dry
forecast in there, but that wasn`t done with a great deal of
confidence.

On the temperature front, around or slightly below normal
temperatures should be the norm in the extended time frame. With a
persistent upper trough over the eastern U.S., northerly flow over
the region should also keep the humidity levels down below what one
would normally expect for this time of year.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Grant-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-
Woodruff.

&&

$$


Aviation...99