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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221936
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are elevated temperatures,
and a low chance of rain through Sunday. Then chances of rain
increase Sunday night into next week as a cold front moves
through the region and brings cooler temperatures.

Today did start with some patchy fog across AR, and will add that
again with expected temp and dewpoint temp spreads being close, as
well as light winds and good radiational cooling. Have seen mostly
sunny skies today, dry and with warm temperatures into the upper
80s to lower 90s. Some highs will reach the mid 90s. Did have a
few prescribed burns in western AR today, and expected a few on
Friday. Minimum relative humidity values have lowered into the 40s
percent. The surface and upper high pressure systems are dominating
the weather pattern over the region, keeping conditions dry and
warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Through much of the short term, the surface and upper high
pressure systems will dominate the weather pattern, bring dry and
warm conditions. Some patchy fog will also be seen each morning
through Sunday morning. Highs will be from the upper 80s to mid
90s. We do see a pattern change late in the weekend, as the
surface and upper high pressure ridge move east, and a cold front
approaches AR from the west. This will bring chances of convection
to far western AR on Sunday, then move into all of AR Sunday
night and Monday. Much cooler temperatures will be seen behind the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

An upper ridge will be over the east and southeast U.S. to begin the
long term period with an upper low over the northern Plains and
Rockies. The upper low will move into the central Plains
Sunday...Midwest Monday...and Appalachians Tuesday. Strong high
pressure will then build in behind the front Wednesday and Thursday.

Models still differ quite a bit, Euro slower than the GFS. A cold
front will move into Arkansas late Sunday. This front will move
slowly east and may stall near the Mississippi River Monday and
Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase on
Sunday and continue through Tuesday...with slight chances lingering
into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in behind the front. Monday
through Thursday many high temperatures will be in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  91  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         69  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Harrison AR       64  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    68  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  70  92  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
Monticello AR     71  93  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      66  91  70  90 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  65  91  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     70  93  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
Russellville AR   66  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         67  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      70  92  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51