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000
FXUS64 KLZK 152327
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms were located in north and
central Arkansas and in northeast Oklahoma. The storms in Oklahoma
will move into northwest Arkansas later this evening. This will
bring a chance of rain to HRO. Only small rain chances will
continue through the period in north and central sections. Patchy
fog and low clouds will again develop in the morning. VFR and MVFR
conditions will be most common through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017
)

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue into this evening, with isolated
precipitation. Some low clouds/patchy fog will form after
midnight tonight and early Wednesday, and this will create
MVFR conditions in places. VFR conditions will return late
Wednesday morning and into the afternoon, with spotty
thunderstorms.

Winds will be south/southwest tonight at 3 to 7 mph, and
8 to 14 mph on Wednesday. (46)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night
After widespread showers/thunderstorms this morning from northern
into central Arkansas, it has settled down this afternoon. Still
expect isolated precipitation into this evening, and then will
have a brief lull.

Will be clear/partly cloudy this evening, with some low
clouds and patchy fog after midnight. Any rain will be spotty, and
mainly north of Little Rock.

Not much going on Wednesday either, with isolated thunderstorms
in the forecast. Given a lack of rain, temperatures will be
allowed to warm up more than in recent days. Even so, readings
will be a couple of degrees below seasonal levels.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday
night. This will result in better chances of thunderstorms
across the northwest half of the state.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
Little change to the going long term forecast with continued
unsettled weather on tap. Long term begins with a cold front
approaching the state from the west. This front is forecast to get
hung up and wobble around the region for much of the long term. This
will keep rain chances in the forecast for much of the long term.
Models vary quite a bit when it comes to the forecast temperatures.
GFS is significantly warmer than the ECMWF...and with clouds and
unsettled weather in the forecast did tend to lean more towards the
ECMWF for temperatures in the long term. Towards the end of the long
term...the front will lift out to the northeast with a ridge of high
pressure building into the region.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51