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000
FXUS64 KLZK 012343
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR THIS EVENING BUT FALLING TO PREDOMINATE
MVFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT ME EXCLUDED AS WELL FOR THE CENTRAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RATHER BENIGN...AND REALLY IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY WINTRY WEATHER IN THE LONG
TERM.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL SPAWN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE A DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME MEAGER RAIN CHANCES
RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH AND THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS WISCONSIN...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SLIP OUT OF
CANADA AND BEGIN IT/S JOURNEY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. EVENTUALLY
THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF THIS
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-40/I-30
CORRIDORS RESPECTIVELY. DEWPOINTS IN THOSE SAME AREAS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 60S. THIS COULD BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN IN TERMS OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW THINGS
WORKING AGAINST THERE BEING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY MUCH
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NAMELY BEING THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING JUST EAST OF THE AREA. DO HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS INDICATED IN MOST MODELS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES IN NW ARKANSAS WILL BE APPROACHING THE
FREEZING MARK BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THEY MAY STILL BE WELL INTO
THE 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST BY THU MORNING...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE IN
SHORT ORDER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THURSDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH AR WITH INITIALLY
WARM ENOUGH TEMPS FOR ALL RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPS COOL OFF QUICKLY AND
A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL...SETS UP OVER AR. LIGHT PRECIP HOLDS OVER AR ON FRIDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWS...AND UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND FREEZING OVER NORTHERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL AR AND A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE. CENTRAL TO SOUTH...
TEMPS WILL HOLD ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR...WHICH WILL LAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER AR AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A
W TO SW UPPER LOW WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. THIS WILL
POSSIBLY BRING A PRECIP MIXTURE TO ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...EURO AND
GFS MODELS DRY CONDITIONS OUT SATURDAY...BUT THEN BRING IN MOISTURE
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND AREAS OF WINTER
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES
EXIST IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...AND TIMING...AMOUNT OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE...AND HOW COLD WILL TEMPS BE ARE VERY CRITICAL TO THE
FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING
THIS PERIOD...AS THE DETAILS CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  62  47  66 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  66  49  72 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  61  45  65 /  10   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  64  47  68 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  64  49  68 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  64  51  71 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      49  64  45  68 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  60  45  66 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        45  62  48  67 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     49  64  49  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  64  45  67 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  62  47  67 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      49  62  50  68 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56