Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291109 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Some patchy MVFR fog with very isolated IFR will be possible around
sunrise. The fog will dissipate through mid-morning. Winds will be
light and variable to light east to northeast at less than 5 mph
this morning, then becoming northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.
Isolated convection will develop in the late morning to early
evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 344 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, albeit low, mainly in the afternoon to evening,
forecasting temperatures, and finally any influence on the region
from a possible tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal
boundary also sags south into AR Thursday to Friday, with a bit
higher chance of rain.

Currently surface and upper level high pressure systems are over
the region, while low level moisture levels remain high with dew
point temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Have seen some
patchy fog last two mornings, and do expect some again this
morning over AR. Will add to forecast. Convection on Sunday was
more focused over western to parts of northeast AR, with a
movement to the northwest around the upper high pressure that did
move at bit more to the west. Expect a similar situation today.
Highs reached the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The forecast will start with patchy fog across AR this morning,
with a slight chance of showers and isolated thunder over parts of
central to western AR. For the afternoon, will expand the slight
chance of convection a bit more east in the afternoon period,
except for far southeast AR. Movement of storms will be northwest
around the upper high pressure system. Highs will be from the
upper 80s to mid 90s, while heat index values will reach around
100 degrees. Any evening convection will dissipate Monday evening,
then Monday night will be dry with lows in the 70s. Tuesday will
again see just a slight chance of convection, and mainly in the
afternoon to early evening and in the west to parts of central AR,
as the upper high pressure system caps much of the convection
potential, especially in the east. Dewpoint temperatures will
lower a degree or two, and hence heat index values will lower just
a bit too on Tuesday. Again mainly dry Tuesday night with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

An upper level high pressure system will be over much of the U.S. to
begin the long term period with an upper low over the southeast U.S.
An upper trough will dive into the east coast Thursday and Friday as
the the ridge strengthens over Arkansas...which continues through
Sunday.

A cold front will be in the Plains and Midwest to begin the period
and will move into north Arkansas Thursday. This will bring a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms to north parts of the state and
a chance to the rest of the area. The front will work south and move
out of the state Friday afternoon. High pressure builds over the
area behind the front and will keep the forecast dry Friday through
Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the front. Highs
Friday will be in the 80s...otherwise mid 80s to mid 90s will be
common.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  72  90  72 /  20  10  20  20
Camden AR         93  74  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Harrison AR       89  69  88  68 /  20  10  20  20
Hot Springs AR    92  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
Little Rock   AR  94  75  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
Monticello AR     94  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      91  72  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  90  70  89  70 /  20  10  20  20
Newport AR        92  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Russellville AR   93  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
Searcy AR         92  73  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
Stuttgart AR      93  74  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51


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