Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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879
FXUS64 KLZK 091717
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1117 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AREA WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS OBSERVED. WINDS GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 30KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LESSEN AFTER 00Z AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN AND BE
OUT OF THE SW...BUT THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. EXPECT
NW WINDS TO GUST TO AT LEAST 20-25KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
CENTRAL TERMINALS SEEING SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
/LITRFDLZK/ FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WHICH MEANS THAT ONCE THE MIXED LAYER BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AFTER SUNRISE WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY...AS DID THE HRRR...WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WENT HEAVILY TOWARDS THOSE
TWO MODELS YESTERDAY...AND HAVE DONE THE SAME THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 15-25MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE...TO BEGIN SHOWING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.
AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
TO NO GUSTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
WIND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL...ALBEIT
SMALL...WARMING TREND TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS IN
THE NORTH...AND FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW 50S TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT A LOT OF WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND THE BLENDING OF SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WAS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES. PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA AS A RESULT KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SHARPENS UP THE
TROUGH EVEN MORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY WITH A BIT
OF A RECOVERY ON SUNDAY AS FLOW DAMPENS A BIT.

MODELS DIFFERENCES EMERGE EARLY SUNDAY WITH ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER
TROUGH IN BUT THIS ONE DOES HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS NOT REALLY SHOWING THIS BUT SWINGS A
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DOES
NOT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR BOTH DAYS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  23  41  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         50  30  54  37 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       38  21  44  28 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      49  27  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  21  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  23  40  27 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  28  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  25  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  23  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      43  26  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65



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