Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION JUSTIFYING AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES INCLUDING KHOT/KADF/KLLQ/KPBF AS EARLY AS 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





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