Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220927
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
327 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low near the
Arklamiss region this morning. Drier air is moving in behind the
system, which has allowed for more stable air aloft. Low level
moisture remains high, which has allowed for fog to form, and be
locally dense in some areas. Plan is to continue the Dense Fog
Advisory as-is, barring any last minute adjustments.

Fog will scatter out in the hours after sunrise, as the gradient
picks up. Surface high pressure will move through quickly today,
with winds coming back around to the south. This will keep warm
temperatures over the area, with highs in the 70s in most areas
today.

Thursday will be warmer, as surface low pressure develops in the
plains, and pressure gradient increases between it and high
pressure over the southeast. Basically, we will be staring down
the barrell of near-record highs. Yeah, I know, I`m tired of it
too.

Anyway, the aforementioned surface low will drag a frontal boundary
into the region late Thursday nigh or early Friday morning. But,
I`ll let our long term person discuss that...
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
An upper low pressure system will be over the plains Friday with
southwest flow over Arkansas. This upper low moves into the Great
Lakes Saturday. An upper low moves on shore of the west coast Monday
and moves to the Rockies Tuesday.

Models are in good agreement in the long term period. The first part
of the period will be quiet, then more activity is expected in the
latter part. A cold front will exit Arkansas on Friday. Expect dry
conditions for the state Friday as limited moisture will be over the
area. High pressure will make for a dry and cooler weekend. A warm
front moves into the state late Sunday and Monday and moisture will
increase along with chances of showers and thunderstorms. A short
wave moves across the state Tuesday to keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Temperatures will vary through the period. Much above normal
temperatures are anticipated for Friday, then cooler near to
slightly below normal for the weekend. The warm front will bring a
warm up for Monday and Tuesday...with temperatures back above
normal.
&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...
Near-record high temperatures are possible the next couple of
days, with the highest likelihood on Thursday, February 23rd. Here
is a list of a few locations where record highs may be challenged
the next two days, or where the high may come within about five
degrees of records.

Location             Record High 2/22     Record High 2/23
Harrison                77 in 1995
Batesville Airport      75 in 1944
Little Rock             76 in 1988           82 in 2012
Jacksonville            77 in 2000           82 in 2012
North Little Rock       75 in 2000           80 in 2012
Russellville            75 in 1995           80 in 2012
Mount Ida                                    83 in 1996
Pine Bluff                                   84 in 1930
Monticello                                   85 in 2012
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Biggest fire weather concerns will be winds and humidity,
particularly on Thursday and Friday. Winds will be elevated due to
increased pressure gradient, mainly on Thursday. Drier air will
advect in behind a cold front on Friday. At this time, however, it
looks as though minimum humidities and 20 foot winds should remain
below critical thresholds. Humidity will increase early next week,
out ahead of another approaching system.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         75  51  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       75  52  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    72  51  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  73  52  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     73  52  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      74  51  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  73  52  76  56 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        73  53  76  58 /  10   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     73  52  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   75  51  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         74  50  77  55 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      72  54  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-
Perry-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...51


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