Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290613 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN SUN MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OVER THE STATE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
SUN...WITH SRLY FLOW EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE STATE SUN EVENING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AS A
RESULT. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT MOST SITES...STARTING LATE SUN
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LATER IN THE EVENING FURTHER
SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 201/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. DUE TO THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH...EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL TO MID TO LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AR...
SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE SEEN. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF NE AR. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
STATE. THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE AR IS GRADUALLY THINNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM DAY TIME...AND
IF A LIGHT WIND FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT THEN FROST WOULD BE
LIMITED. OTHERWISE WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AROUND THE STATE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON
TAP. THE BIG DIFFERENCE TONIGHT COMPARED TO OTHER NIGHTS IS THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NE OF A LINE FROM
HARRISON TO AUGUSTA. AS A RESULT...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TREND OF LOWERING POPS A BIT WITH THIS FRONT. MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION...AND EACH MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO COME
BACK A BIT DRIER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM AND GFS A BIT DRIER.

FRONT STALLS AROUND SOUTH ARKANSAS AND MEANDERS A BIT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE VICINITY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BEFORE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  69  47  71 /  30  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         59  69  55  76 /  40  20  30  20
HARRISON AR       42  67  47  71 /  20  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  69  55  73 /  40  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  70  53  72 /  40  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     58  69  55  74 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      53  68  54  73 /  40  10  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  42  70  48  72 /  20  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        45  67  47  70 /  30  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     55  69  54  73 /  40  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  71  52  72 /  30  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         49  69  50  70 /  40  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      53  69  51  72 /  40  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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