Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 282337 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND -TSRA EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS 00Z TAF FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  91  71  87 /  10  30  50  60
CAMDEN AR         70  93  72  84 /  10  30  40  60
HARRISON AR       68  88  69  88 /  10  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  72  84 /  10  40  40  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  86 /  10  30  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     72  94  73  85 /  10  20  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      69  90  71  84 /  10  40  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  90  70  89 /  10  40  60  60
NEWPORT AR        69  92  71  84 /  10  20  50  70
PINE BLUFF AR     69  92  72  85 /  10  30  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  71  89 /  10  40  50  50
SEARCY AR         68  92  71  86 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      71  92  71  86 /  10  20  40  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99





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