Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
MCV centered just to the east of Tulsa will continue to promote
scattered convection...however activity will encounter a
drier...and more stable atmospheric column as it moves eastward.
A southerly sfc flow at 10-17 kts will decrease to 5-10kt shortly
after 00z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to near term forecasts to account for
approaching MCS activity across western sections.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99


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