Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  27  48  36 /   0   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         61  35  57  46 /   0   0  10  60
HARRISON AR       52  25  49  35 /   0   0   0  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  32  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  32  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
MONTICELLO AR     60  36  56  45 /   0   0  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      58  31  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  25  48  35 /   0   0   0  50
NEWPORT AR        54  28  49  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     59  34  53  44 /   0   0  10  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  29  51  39 /   0   0  10  50
SEARCY AR         55  29  50  38 /   0   0  10  50
STUTTGART AR      58  33  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.