Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031122
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
Ceiling and visibility values will decrease through the day
today, with low end IFR conditions developing across all sites
between 21 and 00z. TSRA are not expected through the valid TAF
period.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Latest data from local radars indicate widespread returns across
the southern third of the state, with scattered returns
elsewhere. Surface observations confirm that relatively dry
conditions exist through the lower levels of the atmospheric
column. Expect that condensation pressure deficits will decrease
from southwest to northeast through early afternoon, enough to
support precipitation.

A decrease in overall coverage and intensity of precipitation is
expected during the second half of this period, before approaching upper
level energy starts to accelerate northeastward.

Expect a pronounced gradient of precipitation from north to south
during this period.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Widespread rain/ISOLD thunder wl be ongoing acrs much of the FA on
Mon ahead of the upr low lifting NEWD out of WRN TX. This feature
rmns fcst to track acrs the Mid-South Monday night, shifting NE of
the area on Tue. The assocd surface low is still expected to rmn E
of AR, so the svr weather threat wl be focused closer to the Gulf
Coastal region.

Some light rain wl linger ovr parts of NRN/ERN AR early on Tue as
the storm sys lifts sway fm the region. Drier air wl advect into the
FA later on Tue, as a weak rdg of high pres briefly blds into the
area.

The progressive pattern is fcst to bring a large scale upr trof thru
the Nrn/Cntrl Plains states during the middle of the week. Like the
past several days, the GFS rmns faster bringing the assocd CDFNT
thru the FA Wed aftn/evening, while the ECMWF is still abt 12 hrs
slower. Cont to mention low POPS with FROPA, with precip ending
early Wed evening. Did mention a wintry mix ovr parts of NRN AR as
the precip tapers off and colder air moves in early Wed night.

Arctic high pres wl settle into the region Thu and Fri. Expect
blustery conds on Thu with breezy NW winds producing wind chill
reading in the 20s and 30s. Lows by Fri morning will range fm the
mid teens to the mid 20s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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