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000
FXUS64 KLZK 191107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG IMPACTING SOME TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR
TO AS LOW AS LIFR VIS OBSERVED. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING THIS SUN. BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HRS. BY THE OVERNIGHT HRS...EXPECT THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE
SOME...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE. HRO MAY SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP ACTIVITY FORMS WELL TO THE
WEST AND MOVES TOWARDS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY MON
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING MOVED
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE ARKANSAS
BORDER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS ALSO
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST...AND THINK THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
MOVING EAST INTO ARKANSAS...BUT THINK THAT CAP WILL HOLD AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UNTIL
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION CHANCES...AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WITH SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO JET
OVER THE AREA...SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. THE CAVEAT IN ALL OF THIS
WILL BE INTERACTIONS WITH ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND HOW
QUICKLY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OVER
TIME...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE AS THE RIDGING INTENSIFIES. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FORECAST FOR MUCH THU AND FRI...THEN DECREASING POPS FOR SAT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  84  69 /  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN AR         89  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       89  68  82  67 /  10  30  20  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  70  88  70 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     90  72  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  71  87  71 /  10  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  82  66 /  10  20  20  60
NEWPORT AR        89  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  68  85  69 /  10  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         88  69  86  70 /  10  10  10  30
STUTTGART AR      88  70  88  70 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62