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000
FXUS64 KLZK 111125
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 4K FT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM LOUISIANA. SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
GUSTY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE FORTH
COMING THIS MORNING AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EVEN
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO
BE HAVING A HARD TIME SETTLING ON A SOLUTION IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. 00Z GFS MUCH QUICKER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT VERSUS ITS
ECMWF COUNTERPART. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

QUIET START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING TO DEAL WITH. MODELS
ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THIS
MORNING OPENING UP AND PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. NAM SOLUTION WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT BUT NOW HAS ALSO BACKED OFF AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY FORECAST WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY THE END OF TODAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND RACING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT BUT
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ONLY LOW END POPS JUSTIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. ONLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT AND EVEN NOT A
TERRIBLY LARGE AMOUNT OF THAT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER
CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNINH BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ACCORDINGLY.

COME FRIDAY...GFS HAS NEXT TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS/NM BORDER WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST. MODELS DO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST
DURING THE DAY WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
AREA WIDE WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEBRASKA...THROUGH MISSOURI...TO
OHIO SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  42  51  30 /  10  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         78  49  59  34 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       77  37  48  29 /  10  30  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  45  56  32 /  10  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  46  56  32 /  10  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  51  59  34 /  10  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  44  56  32 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  39  49  29 /  10  40  10   0
NEWPORT AR        75  44  52  30 /  10  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     77  49  57  33 /  10  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  41  52  30 /  10  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         74  45  53  31 /  10  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      75  48  55  32 /  10  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51