866
FXUS64 KLZK 011717
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

+ Much of Arkansas will see a reprieve from the heat through at
least through Thursday as cooler air from the north works its way
across the state on Tuesday.

+ Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across central to
southeastern Arkansas Tuesday afternoon to evening, with a
conditional threat for severe weather, including strong wind gusts
and some hail.

+ Heat and humidity are expected to return by next weekend. Along
with heat, more widespread rain chances appear possible, and may
offset a more prolific heat threat, but uncertainties remain for
now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows the cold front
currently over far southern Arkansas. Latest run of hi res CAMS shows
isolated showers and thunderstorms that would initiate along
residual outflow boundaries this afternoon left from convection on
Monday afternoon over portions of central Arkansas. The
aforementioned CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon along and north of the boundary over portions of
southeast Arkansas. The primary hazard with thunderstorms this
afternoon will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.


For Wed through Friday, upper level ridging will build into
Arkansas bringing dry conditions to the area with highs on
Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge
axis will move across the region sometime Friday into Saturday as
temperatures across the state soar into the mid and upper 90s. As
the ridge axis moves toward the region Thursday through Saturday,
rain chances across the area will remain limited. The hot and
humid conditions this weekend into early next week may lead to
heat headlines with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range
across southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. On Sunday into
Monday, a couple weak shortwaves round the periphery of the upper
level ridge centered over the Desert southwest. The shortwaves
will ride along and south of a weak cold front that will dive out
of the northern Plains on Saturday and move to the Ozark Plateau
by Sunday. The disturbances will help increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms across the state Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

BKN to OVC cloud cover was noted over much of the FA, w/ some MVFR
CIGs noted acrs Nrn to NWrn AR. Expect these condns to improve
over the next few hours, w/ VFR condns prevailing thru the day
Tues. Some VCSH wl be possible over Cntrl to SErn AR, and have
maintained precip mentions at corresponding terminals. Winds wl
generally be light and variable invof a stalled sfc frnt
positioned acrs the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  90  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         72  94  72  93 /   0  10   0  10
Harrison AR       64  86  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    72  92  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  72  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     73  92  73  93 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  90  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  65  87  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        69  90  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
Russellville AR   69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         69  91  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  91  72  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...72