Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 021744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1144 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected. Increasing clouds will
be seen tonight as a weather system approaches AR from the west.
Also areas of rain will develop after mid-night, starting in the
southwest and spreading east. Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible
by Saturday morning. Winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight winds will become more east to northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 341 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged with regard to
developing precipitation event to affect the forecast area during
the second half of this forecast period.
Satellite imagery reveals well defined energy, centered along the
Arizona/Sonora border. This feature will continue eastward, while
interacting with approaching northern stream energy. In response,
fairly deep southerly flow will develop over the mid-south.
Together with developing upper level diffluence, a favorable
environment for precipitation will be in place by the end of this
Forecast precipitation amounts do not appear to be excessive.
This precipitation event, together with the last event and the next
forecasted event, should provide a noticeable effect on short
term drought conditions that have developed across the state in
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Friday
The first round of rainfall wl be tapering off fm the NW Sun as an
NRN stream upr trof shifts E of AR. A weak rdg of sfc high pres wl
bld into the region late Sun/Sun ngt to provide a brief respite fm
the unsettled wx pattern. However, the much talked abt closed upr
low ovr Nrn Mexico, wl begin the lift NEWD.
Heading into Mon, the upr low wl be tracking acrs Cntrl TX. Model
solutions again this mrng cont to indc a more negative tilt to the
sys as it moves thru the Mid-South Mon ngt into Tue. Sfc
cyclogenesis wl also occur along the upr TX coast on Mon, with the
sys then lifting quickly NEWD thru the lower MS valley late Mon/Mon
ngt, eventually into the Ohio Valley by Tue.
Rain/embedded thunder wl again overspread the FA fm the S late Sun
ngt and Mon as overrunning/WAA pattern returns. Based on the current
fcst track of the sfc low, the focus for organized convection/svr
storm potential wl rmn closer to the Gulf Coast region. This wl cont
to be watched as the storm sys evolves in the coming days.
Rain chcs wl diminish on Tue as the sfc low lifts away fm the area
and drier air advects into the region. Todays GFS solution is abt 6
to 12 hrs faster in clearing things out on Tue vs the ECMWF. Have
used a blend of both models for POP trends.
The progressive pattern is fcst to bring a large scale upr trof into
the Cntrl part of the nation by Wed/Thu. The assocd CDFNT wl be
sweeping thru AR at this time as well, followed by the first major
intrusion of arctic air into the region. Timing of the FROPA rmns
uncertain at this point, with the GFS abt 12 hours faster than the
ECMWF. Could see a light wintry mix of precip as it tapers off ovr
NRN AR early Wed ngt.