Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220843
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The cold front has pushed south through the state as of early this
morning...with mainly just dry air and a wind shift seen with this
front. This drier air will continue to filter into the state this
Wed as high pressure to the north moves south into the region. A
weak upper shortwave trough will drop SE over portion of the state
this afternoon/evening...but moisture levels remain very low. As a
result...only some slightly increased cloud cover is expected with
this upper wave.

SFC high pressure will move over AR tonight into the first half of
Thu...with light winds expected. Some increased clouds may again be
seen Thu morning with yet another weak upper disturbance moving
overhead. Dry conditions will persist through Thu night...with the
SFC high shifting south of AR. Weak SRLY SFC flow will return...but
moisture levels will remain very low.

The lack of significant rainfall and with continued dry air moving
into the region will keep the wild fire threat at least elevated to
high across the state. Light winds over the coming days will help
limit some of this wild fire danger...but min RH values will drop
below 40 percent for most areas...with some areas dropping below 30
percent. Some burn bans have returned...and with the lack of any
rainfall and continued dry airmasses moving into the area...the
number of burn bans may increase in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

The extended forecast will generally be dry with near normal
temperatures. Late in the period a frontal system may move through
the region, and possibly bring some chances of rain to AR, but
uncertainty does exist.

Friday will start with surface high pressure centered to the east of
AR but still the main weather influence, while upper northwest flow
with little upstream short wave energy is seen. Friday night to
Saturday, a cold front and upper low pressure trough will move
through the region, but due to lack of moisture, only some clouds, a
wind shift to the northwest and cooler temperatures are forecast.
Surface high pressure and a cool and dry airmass filters into the
region. This holds over the region and AR for the weekend.

A warming trend and continued dry weather conditions are seen Monday
and Tuesday, while the surface high pressure gradually moves east,
and a south wind flow returns to the region. Later Tuesday the next
cold front and upper system approach the region, and some rain
chances may be seen for AR. There is uncertainty in the timing,
amount and location of convection at this time, and future model
runs will be needed to fine tune this precipitation chance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     49  29  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         54  28  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       47  30  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    53  30  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  52  31  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     52  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  28  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  47  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        48  29  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     51  29  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   52  29  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         50  29  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      49  30  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...59


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