Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 172347 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING..AND HAVE VCTS
IN THE TWO WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE VCSH
ACROSS THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME IFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
AS THE STRONGEST CELLS ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THIS COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH
INTO AR. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR HAVE DONE A
REASONABLE JOB ON THESE FEATURES...AND SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DROPPING
GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE WRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3K J/KG AT THIS HR. AS A RESULT...DO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN AND NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THEN DROPPING SOUTH TO SW OVER TIME LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SOLUTIONS EVEN KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING
INTO THE SWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH POPS. HOWEVER...DO DROP POPS
OVER TIME AS UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY INCREASES BY
LATE THIS EVENING REGARDING THIS ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THIS EVENING...THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WHAT MAY BE THE
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE STATE BECOMES A BIT
UNCERTAIN. EARLIER SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE
CASE WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND ITS EXPECTED PATH. THE NEXT WAVE
MAY BE DELAYED A BIT LONGER...BUT MAY ALSO NOT BE AS INTENSE AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID...CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LOCATION
OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THU...BUT HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME AS A
RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN/WHERE THE NEXT WAVE MAY MOVE.

BY FRI INTO EARLY SAT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION...DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE. BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...HAVE INCREASING POPS WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LOW OR THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST/NW.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM
LESS AMBITIOUS ABOUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE STATE.

AS RAIN CHANCES DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER IN ARKANSAS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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