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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE OVERALL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT WITH
STRONGER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OVERALL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS AFTERNOON MAIN UPPER LOBE OF LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHILE VERY ISOLATED IN THE CWA. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NW TO
CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER SW...SOUTH TO PARTS OF
FAR EAST AR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE 70S WITH SOME AROUND 80
DEGREE MARKS. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE TN VALLEY AND TAKEN
MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH IT. A TRAILING WEAK SHEAR ZONE HAS REMAINED
OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE HEATING SETTLES DOWN. IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF FAR E AND
FAR SOUTH AR INTO THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS...THEN DROP IT OFF
AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SKIES...AND WILL AGAIN
SEE AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POP SILENT AT THIS
TIME BUT WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE...TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S...COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED. ON
SUNDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AR...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...CLOSER
TO NW AR...BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD OUT OF THE STATE. THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
CLOSER TO AR...AND FORECAST HAS CHANCES COMING INTO NW AR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECASTER. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND COULD STALL IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  88  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  87  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  88  70  88 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        65  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  87  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  86  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51