Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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596
FXUS64 KLZK 300334 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AND
REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT THE GOING THOUGHT IS THAT
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS HAVE LIKELY STABILIZED THINGS
ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TORNADIC STORMS...WILL BE
LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5
TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

64



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