Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231528 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR
SHOWERS...IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID
40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF 0.33 INCHES...WHILE KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH ONE INCH. HENCE
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER NW TO NORTHERN
AR...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS. WILL FINE TUNE AREA WITH LATE
MORNING UPDATE AND KEEP OVER NORTHERN AR. OTHERWISE MOST OF MOISTURE
HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION AND WILL ONLY SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AR THROUGH THE DAY AND TAKE THE
RAIN TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING TO EARLIER NIGHT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  45  75  56 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         71  46  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       69  50  77  57 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  48  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  48  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  46  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  44  79  50 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  48  77  56 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  46  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     67  46  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  46  78  51 /  20   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  43  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      67  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51








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