Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170810
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Regional mosaic radar imgry depicted precip activity was departing
to the S/E w/ lingering high cloud debris moving acrs the FA. Aloft,
a broad H500 trof w/ a potent lobe of vorticity asctd w/ a strong
jet streak is set to dig S/Ewrd out of the Nrn Plains and Upper
Midwest thru the day today. A sfc pressure dipole wl be noted,
consisting of departing strong low pressure over the N/Ern US, and
approaching Canadian sfc high pressure in the Nrn Plains.

A cdfrnt along the leading edge of this approaching sfc high
pressure wl move thru the state during the day today, and usher in
Nrly sfc flow and drive modest CAA, keeping the daily high temps
much cooler than the last few days.

Of concern thru the short term PD wl be frost/freeze potential
overnight tonight and again on Mon night/Tues mrng. Tonight,
freezing to sub-freezing temps wl be confined to portions of Nrn and
N/Wrn AR, w/ readings near 28-32F.

CAA wl lkly persist overnight tonight as the sfc high pressure
approaches the region, and continues to traverse S/Ewrd over the
Ozark Plateau, towards the ARKLATEX region by Mon night. The Mon
night/Tues mrng timeframe wl be much more favorable for more
widespread freezing and possibly frost condns as area winds should
settle down, and maximum decoupling and radiational cooling
potential wl be seen in and around the center of the sfc high. Temps
are expected to fall to 30-32F for most of the state and portions of
Nrn and N/Ern AR may see temps as low as 26-28F by early Tues mrng.
Frost potential (alongside freezing condns) wl be more lkly acrs
Cntrl to Srn AR where sfc RH values and winds are expected to be
more favorable.

As such, freeze headlines have been issued w/ this fcst package,
including a freeze warning for Nrn and N/Wrn AR tonight into Mon
mrng, and a freeze watch for most of the state on Mon night into
Tues mrng. Preparations to protect outdoor agricultural interests
should be completed today, particularly for Nrn AR as freezing
condns are expected overnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

NW flow will be in place to begin the period. Moving through mid to
late week, a compact upper shortwave trough will move W to E across
the region through weakening NW background flow. By the weekend, the
upper pattern should become quasi-zonal. At the surface, high
pressure will slide Ewrd along the Nrn Gulf Coast. Winds will switch
to the SW on Tuesday and temperatures will begin to slowly modify.

Benign weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday characterized by
mostly sunny conditions on Tuesday and increasing cloud cover on
Wednesday as upper level moisture returns to the region. An
approaching shortwave trough should trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts could range
from about a tenth of an inch (E and NE AR) to around half an inch
(W and SW AR). At this time the threat for severe weather appears
low thanks in part to weak upper level winds in conjunction with
modest low-level moisture return. Temperatures through the long term
period should largely be made up of highs in the lower 60s to lower
70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 0305 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR condns were noted at most terminals w/ some IFR CIGS noted
around Cntrl AR. Expect VFR condns, but mostly OVC to BKN skies
thru most of the day today, w/ gusty Nrly winds spreading from Nrn
to Srn AR as a cdfrnt moves thru the FA.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  34  51  32 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         63  40  57  31 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       59  29  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  38  55  31 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  65  40  56  35 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     63  41  56  33 /  30   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  36  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  30  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        61  35  50  31 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  39  55  32 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   66  35  54  30 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         63  34  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  38  52  32 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-014-
015-024-103-112-113-121-123-130-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...72


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