Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 190541
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN
1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017


.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure remains in control with a frontal boundary just
north of Arkansas. Expecting patchy MVFR to IFR fog overnight with
a return to VFR after 19/13Z. Best chance of VCTS will be across
the southern part of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Brief
cig/vsby restrictions may occur in TS, along with gusty winds.
Otherwise, SCT CU with southerly flow less than 10 kts area wide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed across several
areas in the CWA early this Mon afternoon in response to the daytime
heating...and with the influence of the upper ridge lessening
allowing for an upper level disturbance to move over portions of NRN
AR. While not everyone will see precip today...chances will remain
higher than in previous day for a large portion of the CWA through
early this evening. Expect precip chances to decrease shortly after
sunset. With light winds overnight and high moisture levels...some
patchy fog may again be seen Tue morning.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should be lower on Tue with the lack of an
upper level disturbance moving overhead. Even so...will keep some
slight chance to low end chance pops for isolated convection on Tue
afternoon with nearly zonal upper flow remaining. Similar conditions
will again be seen on Wed...though a bit more upper ridging will be
seen. Have only slight chance POPs as a result for some afternoon
convection. Temps through the period will remain mainly above normal
for mid/late Sep.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

A very large longwave trough is expected to carve it`s way across
the western Us all of the extended period. While this will spell
much cooler and wetter weather across the west, the eastern half of
the US will remain under persistent mid-level ridging. As a result,
slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
latter forecast periods. Rain chances through at least Friday will
be isolated at best, with the best chances across southern Arkansas
where the effects of the ridging will be less. Chances for rain may
improve a little by Sunday statewide as the center of the upper
ridge lifts further north and some tropical moisture and weak
troughing allow for an increase in diurnal activity. No frontal
impacts are expected through at least Monday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$


Aviation...99



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