Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211137 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46












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