Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011153 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER KPBF AND KLLQ HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN IFR
AND LIFR TERRITORY. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY 15-17Z OR SO THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COMMENCES. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64



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