Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011608 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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