Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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088
FXUS64 KLZK 171203
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
603 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE

Combo of VFR/MVFR cigs wl be noted acrs the FA thru much of the PD
as a warm front wl slowly lift acrs AR today/early tngt. Sfc winds
wl cont to veer to the S/SE as the day progresses. Few showers wl
also be possible but not expected to have a major impact on flight
conds. Sfc winds wl incrs with gusts of 15 to 25 mph common later
today and tngt, with up to 30 mph over parts of NW AR. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 405 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night

Sfc high pres was centered over the lower OH Valley region early
this mrng, with AR on the WRN periphery of the sys. This was
indicated by the roughly 20 degree temp spread fm NE to SW over the
state this mrng, with upper 30s over NE AR to near 60 SW. Moisture
return was also in earnest, as noted by the widespread cloud cover,
assocd with a warm fnt over NE TX. A few showers had recently formed
over cntrl AR, and expect this trend to cont today as the warm fnt
eventually advances into AR.

The progressive upr flow pattern wl cont to result in changeable wx
conds over the region heading into the weekend. The aforementioned
warm fnt wl eventually lift NEWD acrs AR today as sfc low pres
organizes over the cntrl Rockies. Kept small rain chances in the
fcst today. S/SE winds wl return once the warm fnt passes a given
area. Expect a good bit of cloud cover today, with highs in the 60s
and 70s.

Tngt wl be quite mild with breezy S/SW winds ovr AR as low pressure
moves closer to the state. By late tngt, the low wl be movg to the N
of AR, with a CDFNT trailing back to the SW. The fnt wl enter NW AR
Sat mrng, and sweep EWD thru the rest of the FA by late Sat aftn as
the sfc low lifts NEWD. Sctd showers/storms wl accompany the FROPA.
While there wl be plenty of wind energy with this system, the lack
of sig instability wl tend to limit the potential for any organized
strong/svr storms in our area.

Rain chances wl end quickly fm W to E on Sat behind the fnt, with
gusty NW winds ushering in colder air. Many locations wl see high
temps on Sat occur early in the day, with steady or falling temps
thereafter. The gusty winds wl likely result in the need for a Lake
Wind Advy for Sat, even possibly a Wind Advy in some areas. Wl hold
off for now and monitor later model trends.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

High pressure will move through the area early in the week. A weak
front will move through around Tuesday or early Wednesday, bringing
increased cloud cover, and slight rain chances. Behind the front,
there will be a reinforcing shot of cold air. Other than that,
weather-wise, things look kind of underwhelming. At least we`re not
dealing with unseasonably warm temperatures, right?
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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