Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 122041 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE NOTED. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15
MPH. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 16 MPH...
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INVOF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH BOTH BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST
FRONT STALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO WEST TEXAS...AND THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S IN MUCH OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
WEST...WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT SENDING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION OVER THE COLDER AIR BY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT WILL
NOT BE MUCH TO WORK WITH INITIALLY...BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FORCING...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
PRIMARY FOCUS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

MODELS ARE...FOR THE MOST PART...IN AGREEMENT...WITH A SHALLOW
FREEZING LAYER IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INITIALLY. AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...TYPE WILL INITIALLY BE A FREEZING DRIZZLE/
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...AND
PRIMARILY A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS CLOSER WILL ALLOW THE LOW
LEVELS TO WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN MOST OF
THE AREA BY MID DAY...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE OZARKS.

PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS. WITH UPLIFT INVOF
THE LOW...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH...PRECIP IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED THERE...AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

AS FAR AS OVERALL WINTER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS
POINT...ANY SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE FOCUS IN AREAS NORTH OF A CLARKSVILLE TO
NEWPORT LINE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE INCREASED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
CLOSE TO ARKANSAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER ARKANSAS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY AND BRING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE NORTH DO NOT EXPECT
THE FREEZING RAIN TO LAST LONG BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND FINALLY END IN THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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