Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271955
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night
Precipitation continues to affect southwest...and eastern sections
of the forecast area. Satellite imagery reveals a well defined
MCS...affecting southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This
activity appears to be affecting parcel trajectories into the
local area...however at least widely scattered convection is
expected overnight...due to the degree of available instability.

Some weak low level ridging will develop across southern portions
of the state on Saturday...and is expected to promote a decrease
in overall coverage of convection for Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Friday
Early in the pd...the upr flow wl briefly flatten out acrs the mid
south. WIth plenty of moisture in place acrs the FA...expect to see
mainly diurnal sctd convection form Sun and linger into early Sun
ngt.

Heading into the first half of next week...more unsettled wx conds
wl return as the upr flow once again bcms swly. This wl bring
several upr impulses acrs the region...interacting with abundant
moisture to produce sctd SHRA/TSRA. Precip coverage will also be
aided by an apchg fntl bndry that wl eventually meander ovr the FA
toward the middle of the week. Like we have been seeing this week...
timing/extent of convection rmns problematic on a daily basis so
POPs were confined to the chc category.

Heading into late next week...notable differences emerge between the
ECMWF and the GFS. GFS wants to dvlp a closed low ovr the mid-south.
Prefer the more progressive ECMWF solution attm with rain chcs
starting to dcrs a bit by next Fri as the aforementioned fntl bndry
gets shunted off to the SE of AR.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  83  67  86 /  50  30  20  30
Camden AR         69  87  68  90 /  70  30  20  20
Harrison AR       65  82  65  84 /  50  30  20  30
Hot Springs AR    68  85  68  87 /  70  30  20  30
Little Rock   AR  68  85  69  89 /  60  30  20  20
Monticello AR     69  86  69  90 /  40  40  20  20
Mount Ida AR      68  84  66  86 /  70  30  20  30
Mountain Home AR  65  84  65  86 /  50  30  20  30
Newport AR        68  83  67  88 /  50  30  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     69  84  68  89 /  50  30  20  20
Russellville AR   67  86  67  87 /  60  30  20  40
Searcy AR         67  84  66  87 /  60  30  20  20
Stuttgart AR      69  85  68  89 /  50  30  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...44



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