Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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984
FXUS64 KLZK 250856
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
356 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
The area of high pressure aloft will continue over the middle part
of the country through Wednesday. Subsidence will once again return.
Will keep small chances of showers and thunderstorms over the area
today, but chances will decrease for tonight and Wednesday. Expect
dry conditions for Wednesday.

Temperatures will be very warm and will continue the Heat Advisory
through the central part of the state today and Wednesday. Expect
heat indices in this area to reach around 105 degrees. High
temperatures will be in the mid 90s today and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Medium range models all continue to advertise a significant pattern
change starting in the Thursday / Friday time frame and continuing
through the remainder of the extended period. Temperatures will
actually fall below normal with time. There are some differences
between the extended models in the finer details but the overall
trend is clear, much welcomed relief.

Another very warm day is expected on Thursday with upper level high
pressure still holding on but the axis of the anti-cyclone will be
located to the west of the state and retrograding that way. On the
surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue southerly
flow with another day of heat indices likely at or exceeding 105
degrees.

The pattern transition will begin late Thursday and continue through
Saturday. The driving force will be a frontal boundary that will be
working its way through the state. The front will be the focal point
for showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. Right now high
end chance pops seem justified with this boundary.

As the front moves through, the mid/upper level pattern changes
significantly (especially for this time of year) with significantly
elongated ridging setting up across the western United States and
deep troughing across the east. This pattern change results in
northwest flow aloft that turns more to the northeast early next
week.

Surface high pressure will be located to our north with much drier
and cooler air making its way into the state. Expect both daytime
and nighttime temps to average below normal for a welcomed break
from typical summer conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
Camden AR         75  95  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       73  94  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
Hot Springs AR    75  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  76  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
Monticello AR     75  95  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      74  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  73  94  75  93 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        76  95  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  95  76  96 /  10  10   0  10
Russellville AR   75  95  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
Searcy AR         75  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      76  96  77  95 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Conway-
Faulkner-Independence-Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...56



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