Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271159 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
WET SNOWFLAKES TO PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. THIS INCLUDES KHRO/KBPK. ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST...THERE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD MVFR/SOME IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 14 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
FROM 16 TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTH FROM MO INTO THE
NRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOWFLAKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP IS
SEEN...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL DROP SE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND THE ERN COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THE PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FOR SAT MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIP WILL BE THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH CHANCES HIGHER
THE FURTHER NE YOU GO. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TONIGHT INTO SAT AS WELL...THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND NERN COUNTIES. NO WINTRY WX ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...SOME SHELTERED AREAS
ACROSS THE STATE COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE. TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN TODAY...THOUGH MAYBE A FEW DEG
COOLER ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES FOR HIGHS. SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
SUN...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE SUN NIGHT...STALLING OUT BY MON
MORNING. DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN BEING LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED LOW END CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT STALLS.
SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THIS
STALLED FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THIS FRONT MOVES
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A FRONT STALLED IN OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. SURROUNDING THE NEW FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE NEW FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY END TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...
AND THAT COULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

LONG STORY SHORT...IT LOOKS UNSETTLED...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  34  47  35 /  30  20  40   0
CAMDEN AR         64  40  66  45 /   0  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       51  33  49  36 /  20  30  30   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  39  61  42 /   0  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  37  54  40 /  10  10  20   0
MONTICELLO AR     60  39  60  44 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      60  39  63  41 /   0  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  33  47  35 /  20  30  40   0
NEWPORT AR        54  33  48  35 /  30  20  40   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  37  56  41 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  38  57  39 /  10  20  20   0
SEARCY AR         56  34  49  37 /  20  20  30   0
STUTTGART AR      56  36  52  40 /  10  10  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...46








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