Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231146
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...23/12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THE WX ACRS THE AREA THRU MOST OF THE PD.
SOME MVFR CIGS WL BE NOTED THIS MRNG...ESP WHERE SCTD SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ACTIVITY IS NOTED. PARTS OF NRN AND WRN AR WL SEE THE BETTER
CHC OF RAINFALL THIS AFTN AND TNGT. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE
IS STILL LOW...SO CONTD WITH VCNTY WORDING AT THOSE SITES...ALONG
WITH PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED LATER IN THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AS MENTIONED AS A POSSIBLE CONCERN YESTERDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HELD TOGETHER AND MADE THEIR WAY INTO ARKANSAS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING BY 10 TO 15
DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT
MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINING WEST OF THE
STATE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...HOWEVER
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS SEEN CLOSE TO 2 TO 4 TIMES THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF
RAIN FOR THE MONTH OF MAY SO FAR...AND DO BELIEVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS WARRANTED WITH SATURATED GROUND ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
BRING THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO THE STATE. CURRENT
THINKING BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
TO END THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

YET ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION ON WED...WITH A
WEAK UPR RDG BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH HEADING INTO FRI. WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACRS THE FA...SCTD AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION WL BE NOTED. TEMPS WL RMN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-
YELL.
&&

$$





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