Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  73  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         86  74  93  75 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  72  90  73 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  74  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  75  92  75 / 100  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  72  90  73 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  91  75 /  80  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  73  91  74 /  50  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  74  91  74 /  60  60  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  74  91  75 /  70  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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