Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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576
FXUS64 KLZK 180813
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are low in the short term,
with a dry forecast and warming trend. Fire weather concerns
continue with continued overall dry weather for several weeks and
low amounts of rain. The AR Forestry Commission has a moderate to
high wildfire danger over AR with several burn bans in counties. Some
chance of rain will be in the forecast over the weekend to early
next week with a possible weather system affecting the region.

Currently, surface high pressure is the main feature over the
region, while aloft some upper high pressure ridge was also near
the region. This has kept the dry weather conditions, with cooler
than normal weather. Skies were clear this morning with
temperatures in the 40s to some 50s. A dry atmosphere was also
over AR, with dew point temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
The 00z KLZK sounding had a precip water value of less than half
an inch. Light and variable to light southeast winds were seen
over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The forecast will stay dry in the short term with overall high
pressure the main influence over the region. Minimum relative
humidity values today will be in the 30s to 40s percent. Moisture
levels will gradually increase the next few days with a south
wind flow into AR, and dew point temperatures will reach the 50s
by Friday. Aloft, the pattern will show an upper high pressure
ridge to build into the region Thursday to Friday. This will help
warm temperatures to above normal values. Wildfire concerns will
continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

An upper ridge will be shifting east at the start of the long term
period...with SW flow aloft increasing over the region. Moisture
levels will begin to increase as a result. By Sat...an upper level
shortwave trough will move east across the Plains...with a cold
front moving into Arkansas from the NW on Sun. The potential for
SHRA/TSRA will increase into the high chance to likely category for
Sun as the front traverses the state...being the best chances for
precip for the entire forecast.

Beyond Sun...the forecast becomes more uncertain as med range model
guidance solutions diverge. The ECMWF is the more progressive...with
the front and upper trough exiting the state by early Mon.
However...the GFS closes off an upper low to the south of the
state...with the front slowing over AR. The storm system doesn`t
exit the region until Tue according to this solution. Have leaned
towards the ECMWF solution...though keep some chances for precip
lingering into Mon night as a blend of the ECMWF/GFS. The GFS would
result in a wetter setup for the Natural State...which would be
somewhat welcome for some areas with a current rainfall deficit.

By the end of the forecast...more certainty exists in the overall
pattern. Drier and cooler conditions will be seen as high pressure
moves into the region as a strong upper trough dives SE into over
the ERN CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         79  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       76  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    77  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     77  49  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      77  47  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  76  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        76  48  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     77  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   76  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         77  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      77  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62



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