Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221515 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1020 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017


The scattered showers continue to move east as the upper system
moves out of AR, while the surface low pressure and frontal
boundaries were over southeast AR. The surface system will gradually
move east, while some wrap around light showers will be possible
over mainly northern and southern AR into Saturday afternoon. Models
are slow to move the entire upper system far enough out of AR where
no rain would be seen, so will have to carry a slight chance of
light shower or just sprinkles over northern to eastern AR into the
evening and possibly into the overnight. The northwest to north
surface wind flow has brought much cooler temperatures to AR, and
highs today will only reach the 50s in the north, 60s central to the
70s over the south. Late morning update will fine tune rain chances
and temperatures. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Expect most of the period to seen MVFR or IFR CIGs...even as the
storm system that brought the widespread SHRA/TSRA to the state
the past 24 hrs moves out of the state. Some lingering RA or DZ
will remain possible across the NRN terminals through much of the
period...while SRN sites will see precip chances limited to this
morning. Widespread improvements will hold off until beyond this
TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 355 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

The area of convection ongoing across SRN/SERN AR early this morning
will be the main story for the short term period...with some
continuing SVR WX potential along and south of the frontal boundary.
This boundary currently stretches from SRN Arkansas County SW to NRN
Ouachita County as of just before 3 am. The primary threat will be
damaging winds and some large hail. A brief tornado may also be
possible...but a lesser threat than wind or hail. Will drop several
counties from the SVR Watch 156...keeping only those along/south of
the boundary. As convection continues to move east along this
boundary...this will be the area of best potential for locally heavy
rainfall...and as a result...where the main flash flood threat may

The SVR Wx threat will continue to decrease from the NW through just
after sunrise this morning. The SFC low and cold front will move
east of the state by midday. Precip chances will then decrease from
the west...with the exception of some wrap around moisture keeping
chances for rain across the NRN counties through this afternoon.
Below normal temps will be seen as drier and colder air moves into
the state this afternoon. Some light rain or drizzle will remain
possible across the NRN/NERN counties overnight.

The rest of the short term will be dry...with below normal
conditions expected.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Drier and cooler airmass wl be in place across the FA on Mon with
SFC high pres situated over the region. The high wl be shifting EWD
later on Mon and Mon ngt, with south winds returning to AR. This wl
result in a warming trend heading into the middle of the week, along
with and increase in lvl moisture.

Unsettled conditions wl return on Wed as a new storm system heads
into the Plains States. An associated CDFNT wl drop SEWD into AR,
bringing with it small chances for SHRA/TSRA. The models are still
somewhat at odds regarding how far the bndry wl work into the state
before stalling out. Used a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for POP/TEMP

Models are still showing another storm system heading toward the
area late in the week. Opted not to make any sig changes to the
current fcst at the models have shown a slower EWD progression of
the system as it encounters a strengthening upr ridge ovr the SERN
states. This scenario would push our better chances for organized
convection just beyond this PD and into next weekend.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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