Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 010544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY
ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED VCSH OR VCTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










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