Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 141121
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  55  32 /  50  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  60  31 /  60  40   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  25  55  30 /  60  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  30  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  58  34 /  40  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  57  34 /  80  50   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  55  31 /  60  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  55  33 /  50  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  57  34 /  70  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  59  32 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  32  56  32 /  40  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  34  56  35 /  70  40   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99





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