Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 152344
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

19z surface analysis reveals a cold front extending from near
Stuttgart, to near Texarkana.  Areas of drizzle were noted in
surface observational and on radar, likely supported by the
anafront nature of the boundary.

A southwesterly upper flow will remain over the mid south during
this period.  Scattered rain is expected across southern sections of
the state Saturday night and Sunday morning, supported by another
cold front approaching from the north. Overall rainfall amounts will
be light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

As upper troughing moves across the SErn states on Mon, Canadian
sfc ridging will settle over AR with a noticeable drop in temps
as a result. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to upper 50s F
during the afternoon with these values some 10 to 15 degrees below
average. Clear skies and light winds Mon night will promote
effective radiational cooling with near to slightly below freezing
temps over much of the state.

Meanwhile, a closed upper low spinning over Srn CA will begin to
slowly push Ewrd by Tues as troughing over the E moves into the
Atlantic. Shortwave mid-level ridging will begin to encroach from
the W, and as sfc ridging sinks Swrd into the Gulf mid-week, Srly
flow will return. This will support warming temps for the
remainder of the period with readings climbing back into the
60s/70s F for highs and 40s/50s F for lows. Rain returns late week
as the Wrn upper low transitions to an open wave and ejects
across the Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Drier airmass acrs north AR has allowed lower clouds to dissipate,
with VFR conds expected thru the PD. Meanwhile, the CDFNT was
located acrs far SE AR. This bndry wl cont to work further
southward, allowing drier to advect further into the state heading
into Sat. MVFR/some IFR CIGS wl gradually improve thru Sat mrng.
Included a mention of patchy fog arnd daybreak for sites adjacent
to the larger lakes and river valleys.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...44


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