Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF RAIN
AND FOG POTENTIAL. THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MORNING LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WAS JUST OUT OF FAR SE AR EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH. HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SE. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO SEEN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SKIES WERE ALSO CLEARING OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SE AR IT GRADUALLY MOVES
OUT OF AR THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE CARRIED OVER THE
SE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR TODAY. CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY THINNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH...THEN
GRADUALLY THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. ON THURSDAY A SHORT
WAVE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT IS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WILL SPILL INTO AR FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG DEEPENING UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVES SE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALLOWS A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FILTER TO AR AND BRING THE BREEZY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HIGHS DROP TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...DRY BUT QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SRLY FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR SUN AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND
FROM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT START INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM A RIDGE OVER THE STATE...TO THE SW OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON
MON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SW OVER THE
REGION AS A UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS INTO OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
SWD PROGRESS...IF NOT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE TO WRAP UP THE
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  42  70  46 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  44  73  47 /  20  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       67  42  70  43 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  44  72  47 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  42  71  44 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  42  70  47 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  44  72  47 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  43  72  46 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  43  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62





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