Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 170513 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 18Z IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
NW HALF OF ARKANSAS TOMORROW...BEGINNING INVOF LINE FROM KFSM TO
KHRO BETWEEN 18Z-00Z TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS
ARKANSAS TO THE NW OF LINE FROM KTXK TO KJBR BY ROUGHLY 03Z THU. BY
END OF 06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS MAY BE NEARING KHRO AND KBPK BUT
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON
THIS SO THINK IT MORE LIKELY THERE WILL BE SCT020-030 BASES THERE
AFTER 00Z WITH OVC035-050 CIGS. FURTHER SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE
MAKING IT TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITHIN THE LAST 4-6
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE SO JUST WENT WITH VCSH THERE WITH VFR
CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. STRATUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AR ARE
THINNING AND MOVING EAST...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND. UPPER
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN STREAM IN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO AR...WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE 20S TO 30S. 00Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.36 INCHES WITH THE NW WIND
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES COME BACK IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS AR. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS IS BRINGING COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THERE IS A CHANCE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD RAIN...WITH THE
NAM CURRENTLY THE COLDEST AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ARKANSAS WILL SIT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
OVERCAST DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SEEN DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK SE OF ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS IN BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. AGAIN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKNASAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...HOWEVER BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIP WL BE NOTED ACRS ERN AR SAT MRNG AS STORM
SYS DEPARTS THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE MID SOUTH SUN
INTO MON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE E...WITH CONTD COOL CONDS. SLY FLOW
WL EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER ON MON AND TUE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODIFY
SOME. A NEW STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FA HEADING INTO TUE.
THE ECMWF IS INDCG A MORE ORGANIZED SYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONTD
WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW AND INDCD LOW CHC POPS OVR THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  42  34  44 /   0  20  70  20
CAMDEN AR         32  48  39  50 /   0  20  70  40
HARRISON AR       26  42  33  43 /   0  40  80  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  46  37  47 /   0  20  80  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  44  37  47 /   0  10  70  30
MONTICELLO AR     33  48  39  50 /   0  10  80  40
MOUNT IDA AR      28  45  36  47 /   0  30  80  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  43  33  43 /   0  40  80  20
NEWPORT AR        29  42  35  45 /   0  10  70  30
PINE BLUFF AR     32  45  38  48 /   0  10  80  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  45  36  47 /   0  30  80  30
SEARCY AR         29  42  34  45 /   0  10  70  30
STUTTGART AR      31  44  37  47 /   0  10  80  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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