Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
241
FXUS64 KLZK 040542
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...04/06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY BEFORE
BECOMING NW AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. AS FAR AS TIMING
GOES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH IT REACHING CENTRAL AR IN THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN SITE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
CALM AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH NW WINDS STAYING IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

UPDATE...

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE LOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE COME UP A BIT...AND GIVEN THE RAINFALL OF LATE...THINK THAT
AREAS IN THE SE MAY STAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OF AR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON WED. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF AR THE
POINTS FURTHER EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE LZK CWA DRY AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LATEST MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY REAL SURPRISES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A BLOCKING PATTERN EARLY ON THAT
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH DEEP TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN WILL BE A SPRAWLING UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN BLOCKING MODE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY TICKING UP
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH.

WESTERN LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEING
INTRODUCED. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BUT NOTHING OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH BUT DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...224



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.