Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1212 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

SKC conditions will prevail during this period. A light and
variable surface wind will become southeasterly at 12-20 kts late
in the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 628 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017)


Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...


Other than some patchy fog this morning impacting BPK and
ADF...expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

SFC high pressure is moving into the state early this Mon
morning...with winds becoming light and variable. A clear sky was
observed...and temps have dropped into the 40s for most ares. This
SFC high will move east of the state by late this afternoon and
evening...with SRLY flow returning to the state. As a
result...expect highs a bit warmer than seen on Sun...with highs
mainly in the 70s to around 80...with dry conditions expected.

These dry conditions will persist for Tue...even as SRLY flow
intensifies. SRLY winds on Tue afternoon may be strong enough to
warrant a Lake Wind Adv...with some areas seeing 15 to 20 mph
sustained. The next chance for SHRA/TSRA will come late Tue night as
SFC low pressure develops over NRN TX and SRN OK ahead of an
approaching upper level shortwave trough. For now...the best chances
for seeing precip will be across the WRN counties early Wed
morning...though better chances for SHRA/TSRA will be seen in the
long term period on Wed into Wed night.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The period wl start off with the potential for strong/severe storms
across AR on Wed. A quick moving, but potent, storm system wl push
thru the region Wed and Wed night. Models cont to show sufficient
moisture/instability in place ahead of the assocd CDFNT to produce
strong/severe storms.

Current thinking is that convection wl form to the W of AR Wed
morning, eventually evolving into a line of storms along the CDFNT
as it moves thru the FA wed afternoon/evening. Large hail/damaging
winds look to be the main concerns, although if any discrete cells
can form ahead of the line there wl be a small potential for
isolated tornadoes.

The main line of storms is expected to be situated along the MS RVR
arnd midnight Wed, with a few lingering SHRA possible as the upr lvl
system lifts NEWD out of the region. Sfc high pres wl move into the
FA for Thu, providing for a brief PD of dry weather. By Fri and Sat,
a new storm sys wl apch from the SW, with a warm front fcst to lift
back NWD into AR. The warm front wl be the focus of good chances of
convection as it moves gradually NWD into the weekend. Wl cont to
monitor for the potential of locally heavy rainfall.

Focus quickly shifts to the next storm that wl lift our of the SWRN
states and into the Plains later next weekend. Once again seeing
various model differences regarding the timing and track of the
system, with the ECMWF much further N than the GFS. At this point,
all modes of severe weather wl be possible. Expect models to have a
better handle on things later this week as the sys moves ashore and
can be sampled by the land-based upper air network.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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