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000
FXUS64 KLZK 130552
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.AVIATION...13/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds expected across the area thru the fcst PD. Look for some
patchy fog toward dawn, but not looking at much impact at fcst
sites. Light winds this mrng, wl bcm S/SE at 5 to 10 kts this
aftn. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday

GOES16 WV imagery continues to show a well defined ridge of high
pressure located over the south-central CONUS. This will act to
suppress any convection over the next couple days, even as return
flow enhances surface moisture Friday and Saturday.

In the near term, surface high pressure will gradually shift
eastward, leaving Arkansas on the western periphery of the sfc
high. Winds will be light and variable for most of the day. With
only a few high clouds streaming in from the southwest,
temperatures have warmed fairly quickly into the 70s.

Tonight, winds will become predominately southerly. In valley
locations and other areas susceptible to nocturnal BL decoupling,
expect calm winds and possibly even some thin fog formation. Have
left out of grids for now as confidence in fog is low due to only
marginally favorable conditions.

Models are in very good agreement through the end of the short
term period with no notable discrepancies relevant to Arkansas.
Low level moisture will gradually increase each day, but the
aforementioned ridging will suppress any convection. By Saturday,
temperatures will approach record high territory for much of the
state.

Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday

The extended forecast will have some chance of rain on Sunday with a
surface and upper system, but otherwise a dry weather forecast will
be seen.

The extended forecast will start with the upper and surface high
pressure ridges over the southeast U.S., and bring dry and warm
temperatures. Saturday night and on Sunday, a broad upper low
pressure trough will push to the south, which will allow an upper
system and cold front to move through the region. This will bring
some convection chances to AR, but there is uncertainty to the
coverage and amount that will develop over the area. The main system
is well to the north of AR, moisture is limited and the upper energy
becomes stretched out over AR. This will lead to a lowering of
convection potential as the system moves southeast through AR, with
some locations seeing good rain, while others no rain. Although,
overall rain amounts are only expected to be a few tenths to mainly
less than half an inch, a few locations may see a bit more. Behind
the cold front, northwest wind flow and a cooler airmass will move
in over AR. Surface high pressure then again will dominate the
weather pattern, with dry weather and cooler to more seasonal
temperatures.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$