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553
FXUS64 KLZK 232016
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday

The remnants of once TD Cindy continued to move away fm AR this
aftn. However, plenty of tropical moisture lingered as noted with
SFC dewpoints still well into the mid and upper 70s this aftn. This
airmass is ahead of a CDFNT, and has helped fuel a complex of storms
now affecting N AR.

The complex of storms wl be the main fcst concern thru this evening.
Hi-Res models have been very consistent with timing/coverage of this
activity as it wl cont to translate SEWD thru this evening. SBCAPE
values of 3-4K J/KG were noted acrs central AR, along with the
forward speed of the convection, wl cont to promote healthy updrafts
and lead to a contd threat of damaging winds/large hail.

The bulk of this convection is progged to be S of the FA by mid/late
evening. Rain chances wl linger acrs much of the area later tngt
into Sat, ahead of the aforementioned CDFNT dropping SWD. Once the
front moves thru, drier air wl advect into AR as SFC high pres blds
in to close out the weekend.
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday

A broad low pressure trough will be over the central to eastern US,
while a surface high pressure will be building into the region. This
will bring mainly dry and cooler temperatures to start the extended,
Sunday and Monday. There may be a low chance of convection across
northern AR Monday night as a shortwave moves through the region,
but at this time some uncertainty does exist on where and how much
rain may develop. A warming trend is then seen through the mid-week
as the upper pattern breaks down into a more progressive state, with
the western ridge flattening out and shifting east into the plains.
Return south flow will resume also, while temperatures will likely
still hold at or below normal values, while humid weather will
resume.

Rain chances may enter the forecast again on Thursday or Friday, but
there are some timing differences as one would expect with a low
amplitude and progressive upper pattern.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...59