Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251147 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected. Some patchy fog and low
clouds will be possible with MVFR conditions early this morning.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this morning, mainly
over eastern to northern AR, then as the day goes on spread more
across the entire state. Used VCTS to Tempo groups in Tafs. Winds
will be light and variable, or light from the south. Winds will
become north over northern AR when the frontal boundary sags
southward, while winds over most of AR will be east to south
at 5 to 10mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 351 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, as well as a temperature forecast. Convection chances do
come up with potential shortwave energy moving through the
region, as temperatures lower a bit due to clouds and better
chances of rain.

The main upper high pressure ridge has moved west and centered
over the southern Rockies, while weaker upper ridging was to the
east of AR. This has set up a northwest upper flow and weak low
pressure troughing over the region. Current convection over
northeastern KS and northern MO is moving east to southeast in the
upper flow. Moisture levels remain up over AR with surface dew
point temperatures in the lower 70s. Some mid and upper clouds
with isolated fog was seen early this morning over AR. A weak
frontal boundary was located over southeast KS to central MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The upper pattern holds with a northwest flow and weak upper low
pressure troughing into the region. This will allow some energy to
move into AR. Short range models have the best chances of
convection today over western AR today, as shortwave energy moves
through the upper flow. Also the frontal boundary is forecast to
sag southward into AR, mainly northwest AR today through Tuesday.
Forecast trends this way with the highest pop over western to
lowest in the east. Heat of the day will also help develop
convection while plenty of moisture remains in place. 00Z KLZK
sounding had a precip water value over 2 inches. Recent days have
seen an isolated strong to severe storm, and slow movement of
storms creating some localized flooding. This trend will continue
today and Tuesday. Highs will be closer to normal values to a bit
above, and heat index values will also be lower due to the clouds
and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The long term period will begin with high pressure aloft over the
Four Corners area and over Bermuda. For much of the period there
will be a weak upper level trough over the midwest and plains. With
Arkansas being between the two highs, expect more unsettled weather
with this pattern and better rain chances for the period. This
should lead to MCSs moving through the state. The models show the
upper ridge building over the mid south for the weekend. This would
put the storm track slightly north of Arkansas for the weekend...
resulting in lower rain chances.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for mid week into next
weekend. Without being directly beneath either ridge, temperatures
will be closer to normal values. High temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s...and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  74  92  73 /  50  30  40  20
Camden AR         93  74  95  74 /  50  20  30  20
Harrison AR       88  72  88  71 /  50  30  40  20
Hot Springs AR    92  75  94  74 /  50  30  30  20
Little Rock   AR  94  75  94  76 /  50  30  30  20
Monticello AR     94  76  95  75 /  50  20  30  20
Mount Ida AR      91  73  92  73 /  50  30  30  20
Mountain Home AR  90  73  89  72 /  50  30  40  20
Newport AR        93  75  93  75 /  50  30  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     93  74  93  74 /  50  20  30  20
Russellville AR   92  75  93  74 /  50  30  30  20
Searcy AR         93  75  94  74 /  50  30  30  20
Stuttgart AR      93  76  94  75 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51


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