Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290537 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...
PATCHY MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
ARKADELPHIA AREA AND IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE NE TO SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUED TODAY...AND THERE WILL
BE NO BIG CHANGES DURING THE NEAR TERM.

A BIG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN/FILL WITH TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE
RIDGING LOCALLY...NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT WILL HEAD THIS WAY
FROM THE WEST. RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST...WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS.

GIVEN AN APPROACHING FRONT...THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS...IT WILL BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE GIVEN THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT AR BY AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT OF A SPEED-UP FROM EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGES.

COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT TEMP
CHANGES WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DRASTIC. FURTHERMORE...TEMPS WILL NOT
BE ANY COOLER THAN VALUES THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN SEPT.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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