Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280531 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING...WITH SOME MORNING TIME MVFR
FOG MENTIONED AT PLACES THAT HAD IT ON WED MORNING...AFTERNOON CU
IN AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND CALM WINDS BEFORE 12Z AND AGAIN AFTER
00Z. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT WOULD BE THAT KADF MAY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO
BELOW 1SM VSBY...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH AMENDMENTS IF
NECESSARY. EXPECT ONCE AGAIN FOR THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO
INCLUDE AT TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THIS SITUATION HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL
LIKELY SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. AREAS THAT DO SEE SHRA/TSRA
WILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

EVEN WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE REGION FOR THU...WILL STILL
MENTION ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH TEMPS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. BY FRI...WILL
PROBABLY SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HRS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS
THE STATE...WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...HAVE POSTED
HIGHER POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRI AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THU A FEW DEG.

LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL COME ON SAT AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. HAVE BUMPED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SAT AFTERNOON FOR THE SERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. HAVE
ALSO KEPT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHER POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. POPS WILL THEN DECREASE INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH MISSOURI SUNDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
KEEP OUR CWFA DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  71  93  73 /  10  10  20  40
CAMDEN AR         95  74  93  73 /  10  20  30  40
HARRISON AR       91  68  88  69 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  73  91  73 /  10  20  30  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  74  93  74 /  10  20  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     95  74  93  74 /  10  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      92  72  90  72 /  10  20  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  70  91  72 /  10  20  40  40
NEWPORT AR        94  70  92  71 /  10  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     95  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  72  91  72 /  10  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         94  71  92  72 /  10  20  20  40
STUTTGART AR      94  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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