Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 311602
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DISIPATED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A SHOWER HAS JUST DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWFA.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR
TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

HAVE SEEN DEW POINTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RUN A GOOD THREE TO
FIVE DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT IN THE STATE. WITH
LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP TO THE THREE TO FIVE MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP...AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

THE ENLONGATED TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. HIRES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE STATE WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MU CAPE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
BE A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE STATE...HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD
AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CONTINUE. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE AREA...CAN NOT JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM ALOFT DRIFTS MORE TOWARDS THE GULF...AND THEREFORE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM ALOFT
INITIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
AWAY TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. IN THE END...THE PERIOD
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND
NOT WORTH MENTIONING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER...WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         96  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       90  67  90  67 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  71  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  71  96  72 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      94  67  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  69  90  68 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  69  94  69 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         93  69  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  93  72 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.