Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212338 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and much of
the overnight. After midnight, areas of MVFR to isolated IFR fog
conditions near and at some TAF sites. After sunrise on Sunday, any
fog will dissipated by mid-morning. Winds will be from the NE to E
at 3 to 8 mph this evening, becoming mainly light and variable or
light from the NE to E. Winds on Sunday will gradually become E to
SE at 5 to 10 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 223 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Expect the dry and calm conditions to continue through much of Sun
as SFC high pressure drops south into the state. This will be as a
result of an upper level shortwave trough axis diving south late
tonight over the region in NRLY flow aloft. Upper level ridging will
then be seen for Sun into Sun night. The SFC high will shift east of
the state late Sun into Mon...with SRLY SFC flow returning for Mon.
At the same time...the ridging aloft will weaken...and an upper
level disturbance will approach from the west.

Will start to see increasing rain chances late Sun night...but more
significantly for Mon as the moisture levels increase and the upper
level disturbance moves closer. However...better chances for precip
will come in the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

A southwesterly flow pattern will affect the mid south through this
period. Several disturbances in this flow will pass over the
region...and will focus convective episodes. Overall numerical
guidance suggest that overall coverage and intensity of these
episodes will increase late in this period.  Near normal
temperatures are expected during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  80  56  80 /  10  10  10  10
Camden AR         60  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  40
Harrison AR       53  79  57  77 /  10  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    59  82  61  81 /  10  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  58  82  60  82 /  10  10  10  30
Monticello AR     59  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      58  82  61  79 /  10  10  20  40
Mountain Home AR  53  80  57  79 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        55  81  57  82 /  10   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     59  82  60  83 /  10  10  10  20
Russellville AR   57  82  59  80 /  10  10  10  30
Searcy AR         55  81  56  81 /  10  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      58  81  60  82 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...55



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