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000
FXUS64 KLZK 102309 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
609 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT...IN AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY...POSSIBLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR
IFR TEMPORARILY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN THE OVERALL CHANCE LOWERS AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE REACHING THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S.

CURRENT TSTORM COMPLEX SLOWLY MOVING ESE INTO NW AR...WITH THE MAIN
CORE ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN A BIT AND MAY
SEE A WARNING OR TWO WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR.
ALSO OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AR IN
THE HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. EXPECT AFTER
SUNSET FOR CONVECTION THE GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE
FRONT HAS BECOME MORE WASHED OUT AND NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH SOME
ANALYSIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE IN THE 70S SOUTH. TEMPS WERE BEING
HELD DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION AREAS...WHILE IN
THE 80S ELSEWHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A MOIST LOWER SURFACE TO
8K FEET LAYER..WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES...WHILE
ABOVE 8K FEET QUITE DRY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION A BIT BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO STOP IT. DID UPDATE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER TO FINE
TUNE ON GOING POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE UPPER
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE ESE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL START THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
MCS MOVING ACROSS AR...WHILE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST
OF THE STATE. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS COULD LINGER UNTIL IT MOVES
OUT OF AR. THEN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREA
THAT HAD RAIN WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 70S. ON FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER AR. THIS WILL BEGIN PUTTING A
CAP ON THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN WARMING AND REACHING THE 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57