Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 191119 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
519 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
IFR conditions will prevail through the period, as low level
moisture remains trapped under the inversion. There may be some
improvement to mvfr later today, as drier air moves in behind low
pressure traversing eastern Arkansas. However, conditions will
deteriorate again late tonight, with prevailing IFR conditions
again by the end of the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 327 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Frontal boundary remains stalled from northern Mississippi through
southeast Arkansas and into Central Louisiana this morning. Low
pressure forming along the front is located in the vicinity of
west central Louisiana. The low will give the frontal boundary a
push out of the region later today, but not before additional
showers affect central and eastern Arkansas. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible, but these will most likely be in the
vicinity of or a little north of the frontal boundary. Fog will
continue to be an issue as well.
Precipitation will diminish into the late morning and afternoon
hours as drier air advects in behind the frontal boundary. Upper
trough moving out of the big bend area of Texas should send any
deep layer moisture out of the region tonight and Friday. However,
low levels will remain pretty saturated, which should allow for
low clouds and fog again tonight and early Friday.
Friday should be dry and warm, with highs in the lower 60s to
lower 70s across the area.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
An upper low pressure system will be in the Plains to begin the long
term period with another trough over the western U.S. The Plains
upper low moves into the upper Midwest by Saturday night and a
closed low develops over the Texas Panhandle which moves into
southern Arkansas Sunday. This low intensifies and moves up the east
coast Monday and Tuesday. Southwest flow will develop over Arkansas
Tuesday and Wednesday.
A pair of cold fronts will move through Arkansas during the weekend.
This will bring good chances of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. Models are being consistent bringing the upper low through
south Arkansas and this could mean some strong to severe
thunderstorms over the area Sunday. Surface high pressure moves into
the area for Monday and Tuesday with dry weather. A weak cold front
moves through Wednesday, but do not expect any rain with this front
at this time. Near normal to above normal temperatures are expected
through the period.
No significant fire weather issues are expected the next seven
days. Humidity will remain above 50 percent. Over the next couple
of days...mixing heights will average less than 2000 feet due to a
strong inversion and associated cloud cover.