Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241028
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
428 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OHIO TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW. TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW...A POWERFUL SYSTEM ALOFT WILL HEAD ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF COLD AIR OVERHEAD TO
MAKE SNOW. THE ONLY PROBLEMS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING.

GIVEN THE SCENARIO...HAVE LINGERING CHANCES OF A LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW MIX IN THE OZARK MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. QPF
IS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO...WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL COME ON FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH RECENT FRONTS...THERE WILL BE RAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT BE
MUCH. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE EXISTS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE
MODELS. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO START
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE EURO IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE...WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS A MUCH BROADER TROUGH. DID INCLUDE
POPS...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALL LIQUID...WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ABOVE
FREEZING.

BY TUESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN COLD CANADIAN AIR. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE STILL REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  31  51  38 /  40  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  31  56  39 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       39  28  51  38 /  40  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  30  54  38 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  31  53  40 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  33  54  40 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      43  28  54  39 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  39  29  51  38 /  40  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  31  51  38 /  30  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     47  32  53  40 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  28  53  39 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         45  29  51  38 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  31  52  41 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65





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