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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221800
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THIS TIME FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH FROM MO OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING A
DECENT SHOT OF -TSRA ACROSS KHRO AND KBPK BY DAWN AND REMAINING
OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY
MVFR WILL BE PRESENT THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH VERY ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MORE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. AFTER SUNSET THE FOG WILL THIN AND BREAK
UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY...AS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TOO WARM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE WEST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
FOR HEAT INDEX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IF HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHEAST. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST...WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A NW UPPER FLOW INTO THE
REGION AND ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH
AR. ON SATURDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF AR WITH
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. ENERGY IS SEEN IN MODEL
RUNS TO BRING A POSSIBLE MCS INTO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR. ON SUNDAY
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG CLOSER TO AR...AND WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT...A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO AR WITH UPPER NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTION CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL BE BELOW
NORMAL VALUES ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SEE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  70  91  67 /   0  10  30  30
CAMDEN AR         91  70  93  72 /   0  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       90  69  90  66 /   0  10  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  92  72 /   0   0  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  72  92  72 /   0   0  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     91  72  92  71 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  65  92  68 /   0   0  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  69  92  67 /   0  10  40  30
NEWPORT AR        90  70  91  67 /   0  10  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     90  71  92  71 /   0   0  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  70  93  71 /   0  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         90  68  91  70 /   0  10  30  40
STUTTGART AR      89  71  91  71 /   0   0  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61