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000
FXUS64 KLZK 081145
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO KLLQ AND KPBF THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND THE
OVERALL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW IN MEXICO. BY MONDAY THE
LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS THEN MOVES THROUGH LOUISIANA TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG IS NOTED AGAIN THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL END IN THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO
SOUTH AND EAST ARKANSAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN. AFTER COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH THE
OMNI-PRESENT PATTERN OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND EAST COAST TROUGHING
SHOWING UP ONCE AGAIN. MODELS NOT ALWAYS IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS AND THAT REMAINS THE CASE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAN OF LATE.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS MOISTURE BUT STILL ONLY
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE WARMED UP
ENOUGH THAT ONLY THE LIQUID TYPE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE ANOTHER WEAK TROF ACROSS THE STATE LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BUT START TO REBOUND THE
NEXT DAY. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  36  57  43 /  50  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  45  59  43 /  40  70  40  10
HARRISON AR       51  30  57  40 /  70  70  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  42  58  43 /  50  70  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  43  59  44 /  50  70  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  47  60  45 /  30  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      58  40  56  41 /  50  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  32  57  41 /  60  70  10  10
NEWPORT AR        58  37  57  44 /  50  70  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  45  59  44 /  40  70  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  39  58  41 /  60  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         59  40  58  43 /  50  70  10  10
STUTTGART AR      62  43  59  45 /  40  70  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56