Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 091206 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
606 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017


Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...



Expect VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Some
breezy winds will be seen throughout today...with a cold front
moving through the state. Expect some gusts nearing 20 kts at the
NRN sites by midday. Winds will decrease by tonight as high
pressure moves into the state.



SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Light winds have allowed central/SRN sections of the CWA to see
temps drop into the teens and 20s early this Sat morning...while
increasing SW winds have kept portions of WRN and NRN AR warmer
with temps remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s. The SW wind will
increase for later this morning...but a new front will move SE
into the state by midday...with W/SW winds transitioning to the NW
by this afternoon. Winds may approach Lake Wind Adv criteria...but
may only exceed in a few isolated and elevated locations. For that
reason...will hold off on issuing an adv for now. Highs will be
warmer this afternoon compared to Fri...with highs in the 40s and

The front will also bring some increased moisture...with dewpts
rising back into the 20s to near 30. This will result in a bit
higher min RH values this afternoon. Even so...the wild fire danger
will remain moderate to high across most of the state. Lows tonight
will be a bit warmer than seen early this morning...with
temperatures in the 20s by Sun morning.

The NW flow will be short lived as SFC high pressure moves across the
region tonight...and SW flow returns for Sun afternoon. This will
allow for a bit warmer conditions on Sun...with highs in the 50s to
low 60s. Lows Sun night will dip into the 30s to low 40s. A dry
weather pattern will continue for the foreseeable future.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Forecast remains in the lather, rinse and repeat mode as once again,
all medium range models continue to show the highly amplified
pattern remaining in place through the majority of the period.
However, models do agree that pattern does begin to dampen out late
in the the period as western ridge does start to break down.

Period initiates with the persistent western Conus ridge and wide
scale troughing east of the Rockies continuing. With no significant
model differences to speak of, a blend of solutions will be used
this morning with the GFS having essentially played catch up to the
slightly more consistent ECMWF.

Several shortwaves will move through the prevailing northwest flow
aloft and across the mid south. These shortwaves will move through
dry with only some clouds to mark their presence. One is expected to
move through Monday with another one on Thursday.

There are some timing differences between the shortwaves but these
will not likely have a major impact on the temperature forecast. A
brief warm up is expected on Monday before cooler air settles back
in behind the departing system. Temperatures do begin to modify
beyond the period as aforementioned dampening of the upper flow


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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