


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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384 FXUS64 KLZK 070748 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 248 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 -Weak disturbances within northwest flow will promoted chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday. -Hot and humid conditions will continue but remain just under criteria as Heat index values will remain below advisory criteria. -Temperatures will warm further with mid to upper 90s this weekend with heat index values as high as 105 by Friday and possibly through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Latest satellite and radar shows mid and high level cloudiness over portions of eastern and northeastern Arkansas this morning associated with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. The pair of thunderstorms are within the periphery of a deeper moisture and theta e ridge centered over eastern Arkansas. Shower and thunderstorms are very slowly moving east with period of locally heavy rainfall possible over White county this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually weaken as the move east and likely exit the CWA before sunrise. As we head into this afternoon, a weak shortwave will rotate around the periphery of the large upper level ridge centered over the Desert southwest this afternoon ahead of a cold front located over portions of central and northwestern Missouri. The shortwave will push southeast across eastern and southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri this afternoon. The disturbance will provide enough lift to initiate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with the highest chances closer to the shortwave over portions of northern and central Arkansas. By tonight, the upper level ridge across the Desert southwest will strengthen. At the same time, a cut off low/trough off the coast of southern California will then move northward in response to increasing heights over the desert southwest. By Wednesday morning, guidance shows the trough/cut off low becoming an open short wave. As the disturbance moves ashore in northern California, the ridge across the Desert southwest will deamplify and begin to flatten. The short wave will trek eastward quickly across the Great Basin into central Plains on Thursday along the northern perhiphery of the upper ridge over the Desert southwest region. This will allow weak northwest flow to continue with weak disturbances within the flow trekking over the mid south and central Plains ahead of a frontal boundary over Missouri with diurnal uptick in shower and thunderstorms each afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. For Friday through early next week, upper level ridging over the Desert southwest will slide westward to into far southern California along the International Border. By Friday night, the ridge over southern California will begin to strengthen. On the heels of the front shortwave, a second shortwave will quickly move southeast out of the Alberta providence of Canada. The short wave will move through the northern Plains before moving back into Ontario providence by Saturday night. This will keep the state in northwest flow through Saturday night with shortwaves moving around the periphery of the troughs moving through the northern/central plains. There will be enough ascent with shortwaves over Missouri to promote isolated to scattered showers and isolated showers through Saturday mainly across north and northeast Arkansas. Finally, on Sunday into Monday, upper level ridging builds across much of the mid south and southeast with temperatures as early as Friday moving into the mid to upper 90s and persisting through early next week. The combination of mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will lead to heat index values as high as 105. If forecast trends continue with those values, then heat headlines may be needed sometime on Friday and possible into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A complex of showers and thunderstorms currently entering northwest Arkansas will slowly move east across portions of northwest Arkansas over the next couple of hours, but likely dissipate as latest satellite analysis shows warming cloud tops within the complex. Light and variable to calm conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the early morning hours. After sunrise, light S/SW winds will prevail at all TAF sites through sunset, then become light and variable. Hi-res CAMs shows scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms that will mainly impact northern terminals on Monday afternoon as a disturbance treks across the state. The impacts to aviation will be minimal with brief periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings, strong gusty winds for short durations. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 92 72 91 72 / 60 30 60 30 Camden AR 96 72 93 72 / 40 20 60 20 Harrison AR 88 70 87 69 / 50 20 70 30 Hot Springs AR 96 72 93 72 / 50 20 50 30 Little Rock AR 95 75 92 74 / 40 20 50 30 Monticello AR 95 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 20 Mount Ida AR 94 72 90 72 / 50 20 70 30 Mountain Home AR 88 70 88 70 / 60 20 70 30 Newport AR 93 74 92 73 / 50 20 50 30 Pine Bluff AR 95 73 92 73 / 40 20 50 20 Russellville AR 93 72 92 72 / 50 20 60 30 Searcy AR 94 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 30 Stuttgart AR 94 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly