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000
FXUS64 KLZK 061012
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
DONE QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LOCATION OF HEAVY PRECIP
BANDS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES UP TO THIS POINT. AS SUCH THE
FORECAST HAS PROGRESSED LARGELY AS PLANNED. DID DO SOME FINE TUNING
OF TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...EXPECTED QPF
TODAY...AND BY EXTENSION PRECIP TYPES AND SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH...A
SNOW OR SLEET/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE...SPREADING SOUTH BUT LAGGING
THE FREEZING RAIN LINE BY 50-60 MILES. THE NEXT BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP
THAT WILL YIELD THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF THE EVENT
FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND EXIT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TRACK OF THIS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS HAS NOT CHANGED THE
EXPECTED AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OVERALL. HOWEVER IT DOES MEAN THAT THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH ICE
ACCRUALS WILL EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR TO THE EAST
OF LITTLE ROCK. THE ICE STORM WARNING STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT DID WANT TO MAKE MENTION THAT QUARTER TO HAVE INCH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS STUTTGART...DE WITT...AND
POSSIBLY TO PINE BLUFF ALTHOUGH THAT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT. IN THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH AND EAST OF PINE BLUFF...I
BUMPED UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR SAME REASON. HAVE ICE TOTALS SHY OF
WARNING CRITERIA THOUGH AND HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
STILL...SOME ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED A QUARTER INCH.

THE ONLY CONCERN IN TERMS OF HITTING ICE STORM CRITERIA WOULD BE IN
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR PIKE AND CLARK COUNTY. THE CONCERN IS THAT ONCE
PTYPE CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...THAT QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
DECENT CHANCE WE COULD MAKE IT SO HAVE LEFT THE WARNING AS-IS.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRIGID AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE STATE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING LOWS FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO HARRISON AROUND ZERO TONIGHT. DO
HAVE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN BUT DID NOT GO QUITE THAT LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE LESSENED PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SHUNTED HIGHER
QPF FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF THOUGH. LEFT POPS
LARGELY THE SAME AS THE DAY SHIFT HAD...THAT IS 50-60 POPS LATE SAT
NIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON HAVING SUCH HIGH POPS GIVEN MODEL QPF...BUT I COULD EASILY
SEE THIS BEING A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT SO LEFT THEM IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THAT SAID...PRECIP TYPES WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INITIALLY
THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND A COLD
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NORTH OF I-40 IT WOULD BE A SLEET/SNOW MIX. TIME
WILL TELL...BUT SUSPECT THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN DRIER
AND DRIER WITH SUCH A COLD/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT/SUN SYSTEM...ANOTHER MORE FRIGID AIR MASS
WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE DEALING WITH SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SURROUNDING THE FRONT...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY...AND THE
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY
MODIFYING...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SUBPAR.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28   8  22  19 / 100  10  10  50
CAMDEN AR         35  21  33  27 / 100  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       19   1  22  17 /  90   0  10  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  15  29  23 / 100  10  10  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  16  28  22 / 100  10  10  60
MONTICELLO AR     36  21  33  28 / 100  10  20  60
MOUNT IDA AR      30  13  28  22 /  90   0  10  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  22   1  22  17 /  90   0  10  40
NEWPORT AR        29  11  22  20 / 100  10  10  60
PINE BLUFF AR     34  19  28  24 / 100  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  11  25  21 /  90   0  10  50
SEARCY AR         30  13  23  20 / 100  10  10  60
STUTTGART AR      32  16  26  23 / 100  10  10  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN.


FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN.


FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DALLAS-
OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46