Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181147
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Main forecast story in the short term period lies with the
building of heat/humidity. Highest heat indicies today through
Wednesday should be along and west of the MS river, closer to the
large dome of high pressure centered just to our south/west. Will
go ahead and issue heat avdisory through Wednesday for about the
western half of the forecast area for heat indices around 105.

"Ring of fire" storms along the north/eastern periphery of the
ridge may flirt with our eastern counties from time to time, but
the main focus should remain over the northern half of IL into
cntrl IN. If storms do manage to develop in during the heat of
the day, will need to monitor for pulse severe wind gusts in the
extremely unstable air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

The main story in the extended forecast is the strong mid/upper
ridge which will be still over a large part of the CONUS, and the
PAH forecast area. Peak temps are forecast by the blend of models to
be in the middle 90s Thursday through Saturday. Some MOS guidance of
late has suggested upper 90s to 100 air temps (Friday). This is
generally hard to achieve with dewpoints in the middle 70s. However,
heat indices are likely to meet or exceed 105 across most of the
area, with southwestern IN and the Pennyrile region of KY a bit less
likely to achieve these brutal conditions. Lows will be in the upper
half of the 70s as moist southwesterly low level flow continues.

Despite the presence of the ridge and lots of warm air aloft, the
medium range models were consistent in suggesting the possibility of
an isold shower/tstm or two forming during Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday afternoons, mainly in the region`s eastern half, closer to
the edge of the heat dome.

Over the latter half of the weekend, a vortex moving across eastern
Canada is progged to create cyclonic mid level flow over the eastern
CONUS, which will suppress the expansive mid/upper ridge over the
eastern half of the country. This arrangement should result in a
surface frontal boundary moving through the PAH forecast area
probably early Sunday. The front will help provide focus for shower
and tstm activity, thus the most widespread PoPs are Sunday, albeit
for widely scattered to scattered convection. This should be the
start of a somewhat cooler/drier pattern, mainly for the east,
beyond the weekend as heights are not progged to immediately rebound.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Outside of a small chance of storms on Monday, not much in the way
of adverse weather is expected. Thunderstorms over northern IL at
04z are likely to consolidate into a convective complex that will
drift southeast. The storms may reach the kevv/kowb area in the
late morning hours in the dissipating stage. If they don`t hold
together, they will likely send an outflow boundary southward that
could initiate storms during the midday hours. Therefore, a tempo
group will be added for the kevv/kowb areas 17-21z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KYZ001>006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB


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