Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010556

1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

As expected, clouds had a hard time dispersing. With high pressure
staying situated to the north, and developing low pressure moving
overhead, despite post frontal cool/dry advection, the atmospheric
column as a whole is having a hard time fully dispersing the
clouds. This trend wont be a whole lot better today, with neutral
to negative surface isallobaric tendencies across the south/east.
But across the north/west, positive anomalies are modeled and may
lead to a longer duration of sunshine today.

By 00Z Friday, the evolution of the upper Low across the Tn valley
will help induce an advecting moist tongue that should spell
spotty shower activity in our far southeastern counties...certainly
enough to warrant a slgt chance mention. After sunset, however,
diurnal flare enhanced instability lessens and should just mean
lingering clouds/silent pops for the overnight hours.

Friday-Friday night still looks to be the best chance of rain. By
then, the southward migration of the Low ends up helping sweep
tropical moisture from approaching Joaquin, as far north and west
as the Commonwealth, including basically our eastern half of the
CWA. We`ll have slgt chance-chance mentions ongoing, bumped up
slightly this package as each successive model run has supported a
wetter solution.

Saturday-Saturday night sees the Low migrate far enough to the
south and east to take us out of the PoP picture, even as some
wake high pressure ridging aloft noses into the Mid Ms valley from
the west. The tricky part will be the farthest east/southeast
counties...whether to maintain a slgt mention or silent Pop, which
we`ll leave to press time collab efforts.

While we might see a 70 here or there today, temps will range
through the 60s for highs, mainly, thru the short term. Similarly
isolated 50s notwithstanding, we`ll see predominant 40s for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

At the start of the period, the models are in moderate agreement
with a closed low over the SE U.S. and Joaquin somewhere east of FL.
The divergence in solutions is swift from 12z Sunday on with respect
to Joaquin and the placement/transition of the SE closed low into
early next week. Thankfully, after looking over the past 3 days
worth of runs for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, our weather
looks uneventful regardless of how the pattern evolves (including
Joaquin). The only way this changes is if somehow either Joaquin, or
the upper low ends up notably farther west than forecast. We will
carry just a slight chance of showers SW IN/west KY Pennyrile
Saturday, then dry Saturday night through Tuesday. Looking at the
past 3 MOS sets, Saturday still on track to be coolish. The overall
MOS trend for Sunday through Tuesday is warmer, especially
Monday/Tuesday. We adjusted up as a result given the prospect for
less cloud cover and a rise in heights.


Issued at 1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Restricted cigs have more or less departed just to the east, so
sct-bkn VFR skies should prevail for the remainder of the pre dawn
morning. Models indicate diurnal strato-cu field in the MVFR
range may develop, but should stay scattered predominantly. A
tighter gradient could stiffen north winds into the teens kts
with occasional gusts into the low 20s kts during the diurnal




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