Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 100822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Some quiet weather ahead as we close out the weekend and head
into next week. Warm air advection will continue today which
should allow for a marked increase in highs as winds become gusty
out of the southwest. Guidance numbers fairly similar and
indicate highs reaching into the 40s in most locations with
temperatures around 50 degrees possible in parts of southeast MO.
This lines up with the ongoing forecast grids so little change is

A dry cold front passes through the region this afternoon and into
the early evening hours bringing some clouds to parts of the region.
Temperatures do not really cool off that much behind the front so
tonight`s lows should be warmer than what we have been experiencing,
and likely drop down into the upper 20s. Another surge of warmer air
will arrive on Monday as warm air advection ramps up again and
temperatures will soar even higher than what we will see today.
Southwest winds will once again become gusty at times before yet
another front come through. Fifty degree readings should be
attainable as far east and north as Evansville IN with
temperatures close to 60 degrees likely in places like Poplar
Bluff MO. The cold front will pass through Monday afternoon with
little fanfare but will bring an end to that warmer weather as
gusty northwest winds usher in colder air during the evening

Monday night, an upper level shortwave trough will bring a band of
cloud across the area during the night. Chances for any
precipitation sure look limited, although sprinkles or flurries are
possible in northeastern sections of the area after midnight. Not
enough signal in the models nor is there enough model consistency to
add POPs at this time but it will be watched. The clouds will
help keep temperatures a few degrees either side of freezing
Monday night. High pressure builds in at the surface on Tuesday
which will mean dry weather but it will be rather chilly once
again, as a colder air mass spills into the region. Highs on
Tuesday will be back in the mid to upper 30s for most locations,
with low 40s possible in southeast MO, but there should be plenty
of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

At the beginning of the period, a large H5 vortex will be across New
England with a ridge persistent over the Pacific Coast region. With
time the pattern will become less amplified. However unsettled NW
flow aloft will continue across the nation east of the Rockies and
over our area. During this transition, a couple of trofs should move
across the area. At the surface, frontal boundaries will be
reflected and move southeast as well. First system is expected
Thursday into Thursday night and the second this weekend. Both are
lacking moisture. So a dry forecast will continue through Saturday.
Will carry a slight chance PoPs Saturday night for light precip,
given the GFS continues to show it, as did prior ECMWF runs. The
last 2 EC runs, and latest CMC run indicate dry. Will use
persistence and the latest blend output for temps.


Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

South/southwest winds today which could get gusty during pm
hours. Gridded time/height cross sections show very dry lower
trop, but some moistening just above 700 mb with condensation
pressure deficits dropping to 30 mb suggest a scattered to broken
mid deck may develop/advect in with warm advection ahead of the
next front, so we added that to the flight forecast, esp the
planning period.




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