Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The weather through Tuesday night still appears mainly dry, with
a gradual increase in temps and humidity. A northerly mid-level
wind flow will persist across the Mississippi Valley on the
eastern periphery of the expanding 500 mb ridge over the Plains.

The only fly in the ointment is a cold front that extended from
northern Indiana to the southeast corner of Iowa at 18z. Clusters
of thunderstorms have developed along this front, which is
forecast to drop southward to Interstate 64 by Monday morning.
Model guidance is in good agreement that these storms will weaken
or dissipate as they reach the Interstate 64 corridor tonight.
This looks reasonable, since the storms will be moving into
progressively more stable air. To account for the southward
potential of these storms, a slight chance pop will be added for
the I-64 corridor tonight.

On Monday, the remnants of the cold front are forecast to stall
over the Lower Ohio Valley and se Missouri. The front may even
dissipate for all intents and purposes. However, the models
indicate dew points will pool along the remnants of the front,
contributing to rather strong instability in the afternoon. Nam
model soundings indicate there will be nothing in the way of a cap
in the afternoon. Despite the shallow, questionable nature of the
frontal forcing, isolated storms are possible in the very moist
and uncapped environment. A slight chance pop will be forecast for
much of the area on Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday night, the forecast will be kept dry.
Until the Plains ridge is centered over our region, it is
impossible to rule out isolated storms in the heat of the day.
However, there is not enough evidence of large-scale forcing to
justify mentioning precip in the forecast after Monday. Temps will
inch upward each day, reaching the lower 90s Tuesday. Heat indices
will also inch upward, nearing the century mark on Tuesday aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Our confidence remains fairly high that potentially dangerous heat
and humidity will affect the area Wednesday through Saturday. A
strong upper level high will be in place across the area, though by
Friday through Saturday, it should shift slowly south of the region.
Peak afternoon heat index values should be near 105F, especially
Wednesday through Friday, and possibly Saturday as well. Highs will
be in the mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Bias correct
values continue to incorrectly lower blend output for max T`s. We
have thrown the inits out and used a blend of EC/ENS and GFS MOS

There continues to be a minimal signal for isolated convection
Wednesday, primarily SE 1/2. For now, confidence remains low. Will
stick with silent 10 percent chances. For Friday through Saturday,
the chance of convection continues, though seems more limited to the
NE 1/2 of the area (including the EVV tri-state). Nothing more than
slight chance PoPs (20 percent) given low confidence in what the SW
extent to chances will be as the upper high shifts south.
Adjustments can be expected. Overall model preference was an even
blend of the EC and GFS, given reasonable overall agreement.


Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds developed late this morning. These
clouds will dissipate with loss of solar heating around sunset.
Skies will be mainly clear tonight, however computer models show a
slight increase in moisture in the 4k to 8k foot layer by morning.
Scattered clouds are expected again Monday. Winds will be light
through the period. Some patchy fog is again likely around sunrise,
mainly at the more fog-prone sites such as kcgi.




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