Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181713

1213 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Updated the Aviation section.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

With high pressure in control through most of the period, very
little to discuss in the short term.

High pressure will continue to overspread the region today but a
short wave diving southeast across the area combined with decent
low level moisture will likely produce mostly cloudy skies over
the northeast third to half of our CWA with partly cloudy skies

The high is forecast to be centered over our northeast counties late
tonight (Saturday night/Sunday morning) with clear skies and little
to no wind, so patchy frost may be an issue generally north and east
of a line from Mount Vernon Illinois to Greenville Kentucky. There
is still a certain level of uncertainty so will not issue a frost
advisory at this time.

The next item of interest will be the passage of a cold front on
Monday. Models in fairly good agreement that moisture will be very
limited with the frontal passage, therefore backed off on POPS
except over the northeast third of the CWA where moisture should be
a little more impressive.

In the wake of the front high pressure will overspread the region
once again and remain the dominant weather feature through the rest
of the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

High confidence in the extended.

High pressure will be in control of the weather pattern throughout
the extended. A cold front sets up over the central plains late next
week but gets obliterated by high pressure as it approaches the
heartland. So seasonable weather is expected for this time of year.
As for temps they will be slightly below normal early in the week in
the wake of Mondays cold front then slowly warm to or slightly above
normal as we progress through the week.


Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Abundant low level moisture, visible sat imagery and trajectories
suggest a expansive cu/strato-cu will persist across the area
through the afternoon. May take some time to scattered in the evening
given 3-4k/ft flow will continue from the north, and with upstream
clouds seen on sat loop. Bases should stay just above vfr/mvfr
thresholds generally 3.5-4.5k/ft. Gusty NNW breezes to continue,
maybe some gusts 15-20 kts. Winds will go near calm tonight, with
the clouds expected to diminish. Maintained the late night fog
possibility, mainly MVFR, from the previous TAFs.



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