


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
155 FXUS63 KPAH 062330 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances continue today and will continue through next week with daily chances. - Heat and humidity persist. - Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving into the upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Watching isolated to scattered thunder develop across parts of SEMO/southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. In the hot and humid airmass MLCAPEs are about 2500 J/kg. SFc-700mb theta-e differentials are about 25-30C with essentially non-existent shear. PWAT values are about 2.00 inches. This will result in very slow moving convection with very efficient rainfall rates and with the slow movement isolated flash flooding is possible. A few damaging downbursts are also possible this afternoon. We then stay embedded in a relative weakness in the flow aloft through Wednesday. With surface dewpoints in the low 70s afternoon showers and storms are pretty much guaranteed through that period. Coverage will be limited by the relatively lack of forcing but locally heavy rain and a downburst or two seem possible given the parameter space. A little bit of a coverage decrease for the latter half of the week, briefly, before an aspiring cooler-than-it-was front tries to work towards the area on Saturday. From the look of the upper-level pattern provided by the GFS/ECMWF I wouldn`t get my hopes up too high the front makes it through but it does seem to be strong enough to result in an increase in coverage of showers and storms. Heat index values remain hot but seasonable and below advisory levels based on the current forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Will be watching convection over Missouri closely to see if it can make it to KCGI later this evening. Otherwise, it appears that convective chances are done for the night. MVFR ceilings will attempt to sag south into KMVN and KEVV for a few hours in the morning, then scattered heat of the day thunderstorms will be possible over most of the region. A weak cold front will try to make through KMVN in the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DRS