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902
FXUS63 KPAH 152300
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
600 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be the
temperature forecast and the possibility for patchy frost tomorrow
night.

The surface cold front cleared the FA early Sunday afternoon with
the associated rain quickly following suite. The brisk NW to N
winds will continue to usher in cooler and drier air through this
evening as they gradually decrease. Visible satellite and surface
obs indicate sharp clearing form the NW and have more aggressively
reflected clearing behind the front in the short term forecast.

High pressure will build east in the Ohio Valley through the early
part of the week. With the axis of the high centered over the FA,
northerly winds will subside Monday night allowing near maximum
cooling. With surface dewpoints in the mid 30s to near 40 combined
with near calm winds expect low temperatures Monday night to average
in the upper 30s with slightly cooler readings across the north
(MVN & MDH MAV MOS of 37 for Monday night) and slightly warmer
across the south and east. Even the slightly warmer MOS values
would lend to some patchy frost Monday night mainly across about
the northern half of the FA and therefore will include a mention.
Southerly winds will begin to return Tuesday and boost max temps a
few degrees over Monday`s highs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High confidence continues for the extended.

Models continue to be in good agreement with the extended and are
starting to show better continuity outside or past the extended. A
surface high pressure will slowly drift to the east allowing a
southerly flow to return to the area. This will allow a warming
trend to take place through the extended. As the surface high drifts
toward the east coast ridging aloft will take place. The end result
should be a dry forecast through the week and into next weekend. We
will be between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the extended
forecast. The models are hinting at another cold front to approach
the area late Sunday into Monday but moisture seems to be very
limited if the front actually does arrive at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Skies have cleared at most taf sites, with the exception of some
lingering scattered clouds around kowb. Skies will remain clear in
most areas through Monday, but low clouds will continue to flirt
with the kevv/kowb areas through early Monday morning. Satellite
loops indicate a broken layer of clouds around 4k feet agl will move
southeast into the kevv/kowb areas late this evening. These clouds
may continue to pester sw Indiana and nw Kentucky through the night.
Winds will remain northwest tonight, then become north to northeast
on Monday at 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...MY