Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

In the wake of a slow moving upper level low that brought several
days of rain to the region, dry weather is expected for the next
few days as a ridge of high pressure passes through. Plenty of
sunshine is expected over most of the area today and Tuesday.
However, scattered to occasionally broken sky cover may well
linger over the eastern third (Purchase area of western Kentucky
and southwest Indiana) as northeasterly low level flow keeps the
layer below 850mb quite moist through tonight. Highs should range
from 70 to 75 across most of the area today, except perhaps for
the Hopkinsville area where readings may remain in the 60s.
Strengthening southerly flow on Tuesday in response to developing
low pressure over the Plains will bring even warmer air northward
as highs approach the 80 degree mark.

A cold front associated with this low is forecast to reach western
Illinois and central Missouri by 12Z Wednesday. This front will be
the focus for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms as it
passes across the area Wednesday night. At this time, forecast model
soundings suggest a strong mid level capping inversion will be in
place through much of the day Wednesday, so most of the area should
remain dry. However, elevated convection cannot be completely ruled
out by afternoon, especially over southwest Illinois and southeast
Missouri. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase
markedly Wednesday night as the cold front and negatively tilted
shortwave trough make passage.

At this time, there is enough evidence of severe potential late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night for SPC to outlook southeast
Missouri in a Day 3 slight risk, with a marginal risk for severe
weather extending east into southern Illinois and far western
Kentucky. Strengthening mid level winds by the end of the day should
result in a substantial increase in deep Gulf moisture and 0-6km
bulk shear for convective organization. However, model differences
exist with respect to evolution of the low and timing of frontal
passage, which would modulate the degree of severe activity.
Consequently, it would be wise to monitor the forecast as these
details hopefully become more clear with later model runs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

We are still forecasting active weather in the long term. Comparing
the latest models to previous, the 12z EC and 18z GFS were reasonably
aligned with their ensemble means. The new 00z EC was also in good
agreement. The 00z GFS was tossed out for the Days 6-7 period, as
it has trended much farther south with the west U.S. low Sat-Sun.
The CMC was given little to no weight. Temperatures were closely
aligned to EC and ECENS MOS, with some weight given to weighted

At the beginning of the period. A strong s/wv will be over the Upper
Midwest and Mississippi Valley region, and head northeast across the
Great Lakes through 12z Friday. This will allow a front to clear the
area Thursday morning, followed by weak high pressure. Focus then
turns to strong upper jet flow coming across the Pacific West Coast
and west U.S. This energy should result in a closed low developing,
positioned over the 4 corners region by 12z Saturday. Following the
preferred model solutions, the low should eject east/northeast
across the central Rockies and Plains through 12z Sunday, with broad
southwest flow across our area. The low should head toward the Upper
Midwest by 12z Monday.

Breaking things down, we expect showers, isolated thunder to clear
our east counties Thursday morning, followed by dry weather. For
Thursday night through Friday night, return flow will set up. The
EC continues to insist best PoPs Thursday night through Friday will
be across the southern 1/2 of our area, while the GFS is farther
north, and has been prior. Will continue with a more broad brush
low confidence depiction on PoPs for now. Friday night, good chance
of convection area wide, with best PoPs shifting north with time
as the warm sector becomes better established, pushing a warm front
north of the region. Low chance PoPs Saturday through Saturday night
will be across our west counties, little if any KY Pennyrile. Then we
ramp up PoPs Sunday through Sunday night from west to east when
the aforementioned low out west ejects northeast and pushes a cold
front toward and then into the area. Certainly could be some strong
storms and locally heavy rain, if this forecast pattern pans out.


Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions expected thru the period with sfc high pressure
over the region. Broken stratocumulus affecting extreme southeast
counties is migrating very slowly westward. Expecting some cumulus
development mainly confined to portions of western Kentucky this
afternoon. Skies should clear for the whole area this evening and
continue thru tmrw. Winds from the northeast today will become
light and variable this evening before becoming southerly by mid
morning tmrw. Can`t rule out some fog development late tonight,
especially southeast counties. Low pressure developing in Kansas
tmrw results in strengthening pressure gradient and gusty winds of
20-25 kts developing by very end of period/tmrw afternoon over
southeast MO and southwest IL.




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