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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240927
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WILL BEGIN A MODEST WARMING TREND TODAY AS WE RETURN TO SOME
SUNSHINE AND SFC WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY. WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
THE TRUE COLD AIR WITH THIS NEXT COLD SURGE WILL PROBABLY LAG BACK
BEHIND THE SFC TROF AND NOT REACH MOST AREAS IN EARNEST UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU.

ONE WEATHER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION WED WHILE A CLIPPER WILL BE AFFECT AREAS N/W OF US. THE
WEAKENING CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED
NIGHT OR THU...BUT EXPECT NO REAL IMPACTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, 850MB TEMPS DROP
EVEN DEEPER INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, WHICH MEANS SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 20 DEGREES FOR A HIGH ON FRIDAY.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ROCKET UPWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE FACT THAT MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE AS IT HEADS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING SPLIT WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SLOWING DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT NOT AS
PRONOUNCED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS MIGHT PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC LATER ON.

THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE THAT WE STAY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
CWA AND MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING IN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STREAM IN TO OUR NORTH...AND HENCE...THE QPF. OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IS REALLY DRY BELOW 850MB.
WILL TAPER BACK POPS SUBSTANTIALLY. IF ANYTHING DOES FALL SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROZEN PRECIP.

THINGS CHANGE ON SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WHICH GIVES US BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A GOOD THING IF YOU DO NOT LIKE
WINTER WEATHER BECAUSE THIS GIVES US A CHANCE TO WARM UP ENOUGH THAT
WE DON`T HAVE ANY WINTER WEATHER ISSUES. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA FINALLY MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE THERMAL
PROFILE THOUGH AS THIS OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THINGS A BIT WARMER TO WARD OFF MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT THE GFS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME
AREAS COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIP ON MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE PERIOD...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A DECK OF MID CLOUDS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD KCGI/KPAH MAY DEVELOP SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS EARLY WILL BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS AFT
15-16Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP