Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181216

716 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Issued at 716 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light showers in southeast Missouri should continue to make their
way east as a weak cold front moves across and washes out over the
PAH forecast area today. The showers should mainly affect the
southern half of the area where the is a little better moisture
available. Kept pops in the slight chance category due to the
expected widely scattered nature and very light QPF amounts. By
late afternoon, models indicate showers should end as an upper
level ridge begins building in from the west. With the front
washing out, no cooler air will work its way into the area, and
temperatures this afternoon and tonight will actually be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward through the
weekend. This will keep conditions dry through Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, and with a
return of southerly winds on Sunday, readings will reach the
middle to upper 70s, which will be 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave is now
forecast to bring precipitation chances into the far western
sections of our CWA by late Sunday night versus late Sunday
afternoon. Models still not in the best agreement on the track and
timing of this system. Precipitation chances are now expected to be
highest Monday and Monday night as the system tracks across the
region. Instability parameters still expected to be strong enough to
continue the mention of thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday
night.  On the back side of the aforementioned system,
precipitation chances may linger over the far southeast sections
of our CWA on Tuesday.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry and warmer through Wednesday night. With the
approach of the next weather system, precipitation chances may begin
to increase from the west on Thursday. Long term models in terrible
agreement on the handling of this system. For example, the ECMWF
brings precipitation well into our CWA on Thursday while the GFS
keeps it dry through Thursday night. Consequently went with a
compromise and introduced POPS only over the northwest sections of
our CWA on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the entire
long term portion of the forecast with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.


Issued at 716 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with mainly some
mid clouds today and mostly clear skies tonight. Light winds will
become northeast around 5 kts today, becoming light after 00z.




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