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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260543
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall and some storms
  will continue this afternoon into tonight, best coverage will
  be through early this evening. A risk for localized flooding
  will occur into early this evening.

- Risk of severe storms will occur Friday through Sunday night
  as multiple rounds of storms move through the region. Greatest
  severe threat appears to be Saturday evening and night.

- Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will continue to
  accompany the active weather period through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms continues to move
east across the area this afternoon, mainly along and north of
Highway 60. Precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5
inches so the heavy showers and storms are very efficient rain
producers. Overall these storms are weakening as they move east
as the better instability remains off to the west, but locally
heavy rainfall and a localized flooding risk into early this
evening.

An additional line of storms have developed across east central
Kansas and will move southeast into the area this evening. The
better instability axis will remain to west of the area so the
line will be moving out of the better instability as it moves
into the area. 0-3km bulk shear vectors will also be from west
to east which will be parallel to the line and not perpendicular
to the line which will make it more outflow dominant.
Therefore, the line of storms will weaken as it moves southeast
into the area. There could still be be some gusty winds and
small hail with the line but overall expect it to weaken.
Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the line and will have to
watch any training in the line for a localized flooding risk
late this afternoon into early this evening. Overall the storms
should start to move off to the east and weaken early this
evening but isolated activity will remain possible into the
overnight hours.

Additional storms will develop across Oklahoma and Texas this
evening and likely develop into a line and move northeast into
the area late tonight into Friday morning. A warm front will
move north through the area tonight and on Friday, and
instability will increase across the area behind the front.
Damaging straight line winds will be possible with the line of
storms especially with any bowing segments. Localized heavy
rainfall and flooding will also be possible Friday where storms
can train.

The upper level trough will move northeast into the northern
Plains on Friday along with a front moving east into eastern
Kansas on Friday. The better upper level support will be north
the area and the better coverage in storms will therefore be
north of the area across northeastern Missouri into Iowa. If
enough instability can recover behind the morning convection
scattered storms should be able to develop along the front
across eastern Kansas and move east. Larger hail to golf balls
size and damaging winds will be the risks with the storms. Low
level shear will start to increase Saturday evening as the low
level jet increases and could lead to a risk for a few
tornadoes. Coverage in storms could be limited and just how far
east the storms make it are also in question as the front starts
to move back to the east Friday night. The best potential for
additional storms will be west of Highway 65 if not I-49.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The cold front will move back to the east across central Kansas
and Oklahoma Saturday. A second upper level trough will move
into the central Plains on Saturday. As the trough move east
additional storms will develop across Kansas and Oklahoma along
the front and move to the northeast. Most of the area will
likely be dry through much of the day on Saturday as the better
forcing and height falls remain to the west. As the front and
trough moves east the storms will move off to the northeast into
the western portions of the area Saturday evening and the rest
of the area Saturday night into Sunday. These storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds and large hail Saturday
evening into Sunday. Low level shear will increase across the
area Saturday evening and night with the approach of the trough
therefore there will be a risk for a few tornadoes with this
activity as well Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A line of
storms will likely move through the area Sunday morning into
the afternoon hours. The cold front will move through Sunday
evening and night. Additional showers and storms will be
possible on the front Sunday evening into Monday morning
instability may be weak behind the morning storms and this
activity should be sub severe.

An upper level ridge will build over the area next week with
above normal temperatures expected next week. The ensemble
model members show a front stalling over the region during the
middle of next week somewhere over the region. There are still
questions on the exact locations, but there could be some
periods of showers and storms along the front but still
questions are the coverage and exact locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites due to <1000 ft
ceilings. These ceilings should improve to MVFR after 13-15Z. Scattered
thundershowers will also increase in coverage from west to east
as the night goes on. Multiple cumulonimbus towers are already
going up in east KS/NE OK and will gradually move into all TAF
site areas. These cells will be small and scattered for the
overnight hours, infrequently impacting TAF sites directly. Some
thunderstorms may be heavy at times, especially within the
17-22Z timeframe when greater coverage in rainfall is forecast.

The rain should clear the TAF sites by 22Z, at which point there
is a 15-30% chance of an isolated strong to severe storm to be
in the vicinity of one of the TAF sites. The greatest chance for
one of these would be JLN, but confidence is quite low on the
location of these isolated strong storms. Otherwise, moderate
winds will remain SSE`ly with sustained speeds at 15-20 kts and
gusts periodically up to 25 kts and perhaps an isolated 30 kt
gust or two.

Lastly, low-level wind shear will be right near threshold values
through 18Z, and then again after 00Z. Have kept out of the TAFs
for now given the spotty nature of wind shear values breaking
threshold. Greater low-level wind shear will return towards the
very end of this TAF period.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Wise