Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271909
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
109 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Southeast winds will help temperatures this afternoon climb into
lower to middle 60s for most of the Ozarks. An area of showers
and a few storms were moving to the northeast out of Oklahoma in
an area of isentropic lift and generally with the surface to mid
level flow.

A few storms are expected to move across the region this
afternoon, however, a fairly strong cap should keep any
convection in check. With MUCAPE values this afternoon from 150
to 500 j/kg some areas across extreme southwestern Missouri may
hear some thunder but it will be the exception rather than the
rule.

The surface winds will shift from the southeast to the southwest
through this evening and overnight. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder will continue but coverage should be scattered in nature.
Enough instability may develop late this evening into tonight for
a penny to quarter size hail risk with a few of the strongest
storms across south central MO.

The continued southerly flow and shift to southwesterly flow at
the surface will aid in bringing low and mid level moisture into
the region by Tuesday morning. The southwesterly flow at the
surface and aloft will maximize by overnight and through Tuesday
morning as surface low pressure moves across the plains and moves
a cold front towards the region.

Models have been in good agreement with the exception of the NAM,
in developing modest instability across the region with CAPE
values by Tuesday afternoon in the 900-1600 j/kg range. In
addition, shear will be very strong with 60-80kts showing up
during the afternoon focused along and south of I-44. Models have
continued to show a CAP, but it becomes pretty weak during the
afternoon after/around 21z with less than 10j/kg of CINH noted
across the Ozarks.

This works in favor of the development of strong to severe storms
during the afternoon. One concern would be the very strong shear,
overcoming the modest instability and shearing the tops off of
the storms as they develop. While this may occur, the concern
remains that strong winds and even a tornado may be possible with
storms that can develop and take advantage of the instability and
shear.

The cold front will make its push through the region Tuesday
evening. Storms will remain along the front as it makes its way
eastward, though the CAP looks to strengthen a bit as the front
moves through. The frontal forcing will most likely be capable of
overcoming the increasing CINH, but instability will be on the
wane as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The cold front will move through the region Tuesday night and be
well west of the Ozarks by sunrise Wednesday morning. A few
lingering post frontal showers may be exiting the southeastern
Ozarks after sun up, but will quickly move east of the region.

High pressure will filter into the area through the day Wednesday
with temperatures only climbing into the 50s during the
afternoon. With several additional rounds of high pressure
expected through the end of the week and into the weekend, the
region will remain dry with temperatures climbing back into the
60s to near 70 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Scattered showers and few storms will be possible this afternoon
across the area, but at this time did not mention any convection
in the TAFS as coverage will not be widespread. A brief
shower/rumble of thunder will be possible this afternoon the
question is does any of this activity affect a TAF site again as
it will be scattered in nature. This activity will spread north of
the TAF sites by this evening. Then additional scattered storms
will be possible late this evening into tonight across south
central Missouri generally east of the TAF sites, but there is an
outside chance the KBBG/KSGF sites could get clipped.

Gusty southerly winds will develop and help to pull increased
moisture into the region. As the moisture returns ceilings will
start to lower late this afternoon into the overnight hours. MVFR
to IFR ceilings will be possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise



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