Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 030741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the region this
morning, with a few small clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms
developing across the area.  These are in response to weak lift
centered around 925 MB, along with the larger scale influence of a
broad shortwave moving south through the upper Mississippi Valley.

That frontal boundary will more or less remain stationary over the
region during the day today, with scattered thunderstorms expected
over much of the area today.  Little or no severe weather is
expected with this convection, though occasional heavy rain may be a
concern, and certainly won`t help the flood situation across the
Ozarks.  Along with the convection, abundant cloud cover will keep
temperatures on the cool side for early July, with highs only in the low
80s.

The aforementioned shortwave is expected to pass through the area
this evening, which should (temporarily) bring rain chances down as
shortwave ridging develops in its wake.  A few showers may linger
into the overnight hours over far southern Missouri, though this
will be the exception rather than rule.  The passage of the upper
wave will also push the low level front a bit further south,
allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to build into the area
overnight.  Lows tonight look to fall into the low to mid 60s, as
dewpoints drop into the low 60s.  With skies becoming at least
partly cloudy, we`ll need to watch for fog potential late tonight
given recent rains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

The 4th of July is actually looking rather pleasant at this point,
with highs in the low to mid 80s, and partly cloudy skies.  With
dewpoints remaining in the 60s, it should feel a bit more
comfortable outside compared to the last few weeks.

Thunderstorms will then increase again heading into Sunday, as a
warm front lifts back north toward the area.  Thunderstorms should be
scattered in nature Sunday and Sunday night, but by Monday,
convection should become rather widespread as a shortwave over the
Dakotas pushes a front south toward the area.  This front looks like
it may stall out in the vicinity of southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas Monday night into Tuesday, as the overall upper
level pattern becomes more zonal.  It`s still too early to talk
specific rainfall amounts, but given already saturated soils, it
won`t take much to result in renewed flooding, and this will need to
watched closely over the next few days.

Daily thunderstorm chances will then continue through the remainder
of the 7 day forecast.  Right now it appears that temperatures will
start to increase toward the end of the workweek, as upper level
ridging builds east across Texas.  This may result in temperatures
returning to or above average by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop during
overnight hours into Friday morning with potential impact within
the Branson vicinity.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Foster






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