Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

An upper level low is currently over western Texas and moving
northeastward tonight. Regional radars are showing an area of
scattered showers expanding near the Red River Valley region as
well as moving northward. Most if not all the area will be see
some light rain showers late tonight into Sunday morning. The area
of showers will begin to move into southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas around midnight. Most of the showers will exit
the area by late Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light
averaging between 0.10" to 0.35". Clouds will hang around most of
the day on Sunday with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

We will see a return of light southerly winds for early in the
week with mild temperatures.The area will remain in a pseudo
split to zonal flow with a cut off upper level low over the
southwestern U.S. early in the week. This feature will slowly open
up and move eastward along the southern U.S. by mid week which
may skirt by the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm
system may bring a chance for a few showers across southern

Mild weather continues into Thursday with southerly winds becoming
breezy with a developing low pressure system near the Lee of the
Rockies. A big overall weather pattern change will begin Thursday
into Friday as a trough digs across the Rocky Mountains Region.

A polar cold front will move through the area Thursday night into
early Friday morning with temperatures crashing. Depending on
moisture availability post frontal, there may be a slight chance
for a few showers or maybe even a few snow flakes as the colder
air moves in Friday morning. At this time we do not see any
impacts or accumulations. Confidence is high that the end of next
week into next weekend will be much colder. There are some
questions and uncertainty of the overall upper level pattern with
the GFS holding a cut off low near the southwestern U.S. and the
EURO shows a large and broad trough over much of the central U.S.
with some weak energy in the flow. Forecast details will become
much clearer over the next several days for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain spreading north across the
region. MVFR will be likely by late tonight with IFR becoming
likely by sunrise. The rain will then end Sunday morning, however
IFR ceilings will persist at least early in the morning. A return
to MVFR conditions is then expected in the late morning or
early afternoon. Surface winds will remain out of the south to
southwest at 6 to 12 knots.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.