Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230432
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Upper level low pressure was located over the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi valley region early this afternoon with a 100 kt
upper level jet diving south on the back side of the low across
the northern into the central Rockies. Showers have developed along
and ahead of a surface boundary from southwest Kansas into
northern Missouri. The short term focus will be on the
shower/thunderstorm potential as this boundary and upper level
energy move through. Secondary focus will be in the longer term
for Friday into Saturday and the potential for some stronger
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

For tonight, showers will likely spread back into the area later
in the evening and continuing into the overnight. Some instability
develops during the day Tuesday to include the mention of
thunderstorms, but not enough for severe storms to develop. QPF
amounts look to be fairly light with generally a quarter of an
inch or less of rainfall with this system through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

On Wednesday, the main surface low will be to the east with a
northwest wind, however the upper level wave will still push
through with some scattered showers remaining over the area.

Thursday looks to be dry with upper level ridging building back
over the area as upper low dives deep into the southeast U.S.
Much drier air mass will move into the area so we should see
plenty of sunshine Thursday with highs rebounding back into the
70s.

On Friday, low pressure will develop over Oklahoma with a dryline
extending southwest out of the low. Models still have differing
solutions with respect to how much moisture makes it into the area
and the amount of instability, along with how the surface low
tracks on Friday night into Saturday. There will be a fairly
strong cap during the day Friday, but it weakens towards 00z Sat.
Storms may fire along the dryline to our west and eventually push
into the area Friday night into Saturday. Subsequent redevelopment
will hinge on how the storms evolve from Friday night into
Saturday. Continued thunderstorm chances will exist on Sunday, but
should clear to the east of the area on Sunday night with a much
drier air mass moving in from the west on Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A weak storm system will bring lowering ceilings to the region
overnight and Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings appear likely for
much of Tuesday morning. There will also be scattered showers
around through Tuesday afternoon with perhaps enough instability
for a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Surface winds will remain light and variable into early Tuesday
morning before increasing out of the northwest behind a passing
cold front in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann


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