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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191532
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY HARD TO PICK
OUT ON A SURFACE MAP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND ACTIVITY ON
RADAR IMAGERY DO GIVE HINTS TO THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY POP UP IN THE I20 CORRIDOR.
CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN DECENT SHAPE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT I DID LOWER DEEP EAST TEXAS A CATEGORY. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...BUT TO BE HONEST MY CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LACKING ON
STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES
COMING TO THE 1100 AM UPDATE...AS I WILL REMOVE MORNING FOG AND
BECOMING WORDING.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
SCATTERED TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING...AIDED BY A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST COVERAGE FOR THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A KMLU TO KJSO LINE. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CU BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. SURFACE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.   /14/

&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
MLU  89  69  92  71  94 /  30  10  20  10  10
DEQ  90  67  92  70  93 /  10  10  20  10  20
TXK  89  69  92  72  93 /  10  10  20  10  10
ELD  90  67  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  90  73  93  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
GGG  90  71  94  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
LFK  87  72  94  73  94 /  40  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/14