Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250942
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
442 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery reveals the changing upper level pattern now
underway across our region. The upper ridge which has dominated
for days now is finally shifting east across the TN/OH valleys.
However, its presence will still be felt today as temperatures
climb back into the lower to mid 90s despite increasing clouds
from the west. This is occurring along and out ahead of a cold
front which has made it into the DFW metroplex this morning where
a deep moisture axis has set up just west of the I-35 corridor.
Southwest flow aloft is being energized due to a developing closed
low in what was the base of the deep long wave trough now ejecting
northeast across the upper Plains.

The closed upper low is progged to retrograde over northern Mexico
and effectively keep this deep layer moisture bottled up over west
Texas. The result for us will be limited available moisture ahead
of the cold front advancing our way later today on through Monday.
Thus, the outlook for appreciable rain continues to diminish over
the next few days. In fact, it`s continuing to look more likely
that most areas will miss out on rainfall altogether and have
indicated this by lowering pops into the low chance category for
tonight through Monday as the cold front shifts across the region.

Despite the lack of rainfall expected, the good news is the cold
front will usher in some much welcome cooler air more reminiscent
of early fall. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s through
much of the upcoming week in the wake of the front. The bad news
for those areas missing out on rainfall today and Monday is that
upper ridging will quickly build back over the region by mid week,
all but assuring a warm and dry forecast well into the foreseeable
future. In the end, this September will likely end up being one
of the driest we`ve experienced after what was a very wet August.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  86  64 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  95  72  87  63 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  91  68  78  55 /  20  30  30  10
TXK  92  71  81  59 /  20  30  30  10
ELD  93  71  82  59 /  20  20  30  10
TYR  90  71  83  63 /  30  30  30  20
GGG  91  72  86  63 /  30  30  30  20
LFK  91  72  88  67 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19



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