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000
FXUS64 KSHV 100325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA CONTINUES TO BRING
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  THE ONLY
WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE NEAR OUR REGION IS SOME CIRRUS HEADING
OUR WAY FROM TEXAS.  IN GENERAL...THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

WITH THIS UPDATE...I HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS BASED UPON OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LOCAL DIURNAL CURVE.  THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST
PLACES.  SKY COVER AND WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON
OBSERVED TRENDS.

REGARDING THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
IN ALL HONESTY...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.  THERE ARE JUST AS MANY SOLUTIONS AS THERE ARE MODELS... OR
SO IT SEEMS.  THE 10/0000 UTC NAM HAS JUST ARRIVED...AND APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING WETTER THAN EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS.

THE GUT FEELING OF THE EVENING SHIFT CREW IS THAT THE DAYTIME RUNS
OF THE GFS WERE ANOMALOUS IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR ITERATIONS.  BY
LOOKING AT THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NAM...MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SLEET...THEN CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WET BULB.  THE TIMING OF THIS IS TRICKY AT
BEST TO SAY THE LEAST.  TIME WILL TELL...AND WE WILL SEE.  I HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME CHANGES MAY
BE MADE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON ADDITIONAL MODEL
INFORMATION YET TO ARRIVE IN THE COMPUTER SYSTEM.

IN THE MEANTIME...I HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  STAY TUNED.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.  AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /21/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BETWEEN 5-10 KTS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  26  46  30  40  30 /   0   0  30  60  70
MLU  27  46  30  42  31 /   0   0  10  40  60
DEQ  23  44  27  40  29 /   0   0  10  30  40
TXK  24  44  29  40  30 /   0   0  20  40  60
ELD  23  44  28  40  30 /   0   0  10  40  50
TYR  25  44  32  40  32 /   0  10  30  70  70
GGG  25  44  32  40  30 /   0  10  30  70  70
LFK  28  46  34  40  33 /   0  10  40  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER... A. BUTTS