Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 300406 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1106 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms intermittently affecting ktkx
tonight and this activity could near keld if it holds together.
Have therefore inserted a VCTS at the aforementioned TAF sites, as
well as at ktyr due to storm activity well west of the region
anticipated to possibly near the region overnight. Otherwise,
an outflow boundary which went through kshv an hour or so ago,
resulted in a wind shift to the North at 12 kts. This wind shift
will be brief and should return to a southerly flow. Elsewhere,
light and variable winds will also eventually give way to
southerly flow though klfk could swing around to the North later
tonight if that outflow boundary holds together. Furthermore, MVFR
to IFR fog may develop overnight, particularly at kmlu, ktxk, klfk
and keld.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Sct convection increased durg eve with a few storms becmg stg.
very slow storm motion also contributed to isold locations
received over two inches of rain short period of time. Storms
finally gradually weakening but will keep 30 pops where most of
activity remains...and 20 percent generally northern half of cwa.
will update zones again if this activity diminishes before
midnight./vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION... Low clouds West are lifting and thinning with mid
to upper 80s. 90 plus in much of our East as expected late this
morning. HRRR and GFS still bringing some development along I-30
down into Northern Caddo and Bossier 00-06z now. We will keep
slight and added chance pops late this afternoon as a weakness
seen on water vapor over NE TX attm moves overhead at peak
heating. Also a southward moving outflow out of AR.

Our surface winds remain light and all over the dial at 5mph, but
are E/SE up to 10kft. Any isolated or scattered Thunderstorms
would likely move West early and end up outflow driven to the NE
as they build into the mid levels steering in the Westerlies
remain strong from 15kft on up for any spreading tower anvils
where excellent outflow is from the W/NW at 70KTS. We are just
watching a new development West of Smith and Wood moving to the
NE. Tops already at 40kft. The water vapor is showing that
weakness aloft over NE TX plugging into our heating. If Thunder
roars, move indoors. Any storms would be brief half hour or so.

We are looking for increased coverage each day including our
national Memorial Day holiday with 2 or 3 out of 10 Old Glory`s
wet. The short work week that follows continues a wet trend and
even on into next weekend rainfall totals look manageable with
few issues in this highly evaporative heat. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  88  70 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  90  70  90  69 /  10  10  30  20
DEQ  86  66  85  66 /  30  30  30  20
TXK  88  68  86  67 /  30  30  30  20
ELD  90  68  88  67 /  30  20  30  20
TYR  86  70  86  69 /  20  20  40  20
GGG  87  69  86  67 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  88  69  87  67 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/24



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