Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291649
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  64  86 /  90  70  50  10
MLU  68  84  66  84 /  90  70  70  30
DEQ  64  82  56  82 /  90  40  20  10
TXK  66  82  60  84 /  90  50  30  10
ELD  67  80  63  85 /  90  70  50  10
TYR  67  84  61  85 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  67  82  62  85 /  90  50  30  10
LFK  68  82  66  86 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

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