Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KTOP 271117
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW
SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING
WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG AWAY. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO MIDDLE
80S WEST.  WINDS SWITCH AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

ON SUNDAY A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FAR EASTERN KS, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL FORCING. FURTHER WEST THE CONVECTION WILL RELY MORE ON SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK HEATING THEREFORE KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE AROUND 4000
J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT WAVE
WILL BE AROUND 45 KTS, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE LACK
OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE FRONT SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MID
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. THE NAM OF COURSE IS ABLE TO AVOID THIS CAP DUE
TO THE HIGHER FORECAST DEW POINTS, AND THE GFS HAS LOWER DEW POINTS
THEREFORE HIGHER BASES, AND IS HAVING TROUBLE BREAKING OUT MUCH
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO TRACK OVER THE PLAINS. THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW, BUT THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS THERE
ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE NORTH
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORNING VFR HAZE SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.