Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 041120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WInds
will increase from the west southwest after 16Z to around 11kts
with an occasional gust to around 20kts. Winds will decrease to
less than 10kts around 23Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53


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