121
FXUS62 KMLB 200605
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Light showers continue across east central Florida early this
morning. Coverage diminishes into day break, keeping only a mention
of VCSH by sunrise. VCSH has been removed from the interior
terminals into the afternoon as confidence has diminished. Onshore
flow remains steady this morning generally remaining around 8-12
kts. Winds begin to increase around sunrise with frequent gusts
to 20-25 kts, especially at coastal terminals. East winds shift
north-northeast into the evening as low pressure approaches from
the Atlantic. Prevailing VFR is forecast, however, brief periods
of MVFR VIS and CIGs will be possible where fast moving showers
pass overhead.

&&

.UPDATE... (Through Thursday Evening)
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

-------------------------KEY MESSAGES---------------------------

-Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are expected
 tonight through early Thursday. Breezy at times along the coast.

-Weak low pressure has formed northeast of the Bahamas. It has a
 low (30%) chance of tropical development before reaching North
 Florida early on Friday. Additional bands of breezy to windy
 showers and isolated storms will accompany this feature late
 Thursday into Friday morning.

-Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to wind-driven
 seas and surf. The risk of deadly rip currents remains high.

----------------------------------------------------------------

On this last evening of spring, Florida continues to reside south
of a sprawling heat dome, with near-record H5 heights approaching
600 dam over the Mid-Atlantic. A parade of low-amplitude
disturbances continue to trek through here in the deep easterly
fetch that extends from the subtropical Atlantic across the
Sunshine State. We caught a short break in the showers over much
of the area early this evening, but that is quickly coming to an
end as the next weak feature is rippling through the flow.
Embedded in a ribbon of higher 1-3 km RH, scattered showers are
pushing onshore, and this will be the trend through the night.
Lightning will be uncommon, but there remains a 20% chance of
storms. Lows will fall toward the mid 70s, except upper 70s along
the US-1 corridor where breezes will stay elevated.

Behind tonight`s disturbance, a tail of moisture is forecast to
slowly meander from the Treasure Coast into SoFlo on Thursday
morning, keeping a few showers in the forecast for those spots.
However, a batch of drier air and subsidence is evident in water
vapor imagery just behind this feature, so the remainder of East
Central Florida should get a lull (rain chances drop to 20-30%)
through the morning and even much of the afternoon. We`ll stay
breezy with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

Attention then turns to a somewhat healthier feature (Invest 92L)
in the SW Atlantic, currently about 500 miles to our east.
Infrared satellite imagery and NHC analysis indicate weak low
pressure has formed. There remains a low chance (30%) for tropical
development as it approaches North Florida over the next 24
hours. Its biggest impediment appears to be dry air that is
wrapped around its southwestern flank. Meanwhile, deeper moisture
(PW`s >2.3") resides over its northern semicircle.

Once it gets to the coast, areas near and north of the track of
the surface low/trough will have the highest potential to
experience a period of increased showers and enhanced wind gusts
(30-40 mph) late Thursday into early Friday. Tracking such a weak
feature is difficult, but guidance brings it close to or just
north of Volusia County on approach tomorrow evening. While the
relatively stronger onshore winds still appear to affect locations
immediately north of the district, we will continue to monitor
its progress and tweak the forecast as needed. Bottom line,
another stretch of breezy, wet weather will likely affect areas
especially north of Cape Canaveral as it passes by.

As noted in the Key Messages, beach and boating conditions remain
hazardous through at least early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Overnight...Another weather disturbance will bring scattered to
numerous showers and a 20% chance of lightning storms. The bigger
concern remains fresh easterly winds around 20 KT with gusts to
25 KT. This is driving rough seas of 6-9 FT. A Small Craft
Advisory is effect for the entire local Atlantic.

Thursday-Sunday (previous discussion)...Hazardous boating
conditions continue through at least late Thursday night with seas
7-9 ft Thursday possibly approaching 10 ft offshore. Breezy ENE
winds up to 15-20 kts will linger, though slightly lower than
Wednesday. Improving boating conditions will end the work week and
continue into the weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering
seas 4-5 ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday.
Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances continue, capable of producing
locally higher wind gusts and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  90  77 /  60  60  40  20
MCO  88  75  93  77 /  30  30  30  20
MLB  87  75  90  78 /  30  30  30  20
VRB  87  74  91  77 /  40  20  30  30
LEE  90  76  94  78 /  30  20  40  20
SFB  88  74  93  77 /  40  40  30  20
ORL  88  75  93  78 /  30  30  30  20
FPR  87  73  90  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Law