Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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784 FXUS62 KMLB 210003 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 803 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Will maintain VCSH at coastal terminals MLB-SUA overnight for Atlc showers pushing onshore which may produce brief MVFR conds. VCSH will continue along the coastal terminals through Sat morning transitioning to the interior in the afternoon. Added VCSH for MCO/SFB aft 18Z. Light winds tonight will increase from the NE 10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - The greatest potential (30-50%) for a few lightning storms this afternoon resides closer to the Treasure Coast. This weekend, 30-40% shower/storm chances continue. - Minor coastal flooding remains possible, particularly during the late morning high tides through the upcoming weekend. Low- lying streets, yards, and docks along the barrier islands and Intracoastal may experience minor flooding. - There is a medium chance (50%) for tropical development in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this would bring to East Central Florida. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Current-Tonight... A weak trough extending down the SE US coast and over Florida will remain in place. East to northeast winds this afternoon will be 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible before winds become light and variable overnight. The GOES derived PW imagery shows PW values ranging from 1.4-1.5" this afternoon across east central Florida. This will continue to support isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon. The greatest moisture will focus from Orlando/Cape Canaveral southward, with 20- 30 percent chance of showers/storms near I-4 and the Space Coast and 40-50 percent chances for the Treasure Coast. Main storm threats this afternoon will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-45 mph, and brief torrential rain which could cause minor flooding. Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal for this time of year, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for Volusia, Brevard and the Treasure Coast through the period. The threat for minor coastal flooding persists during high tide cycles. Tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected with a few onshore moving showers possible along the coast in the NE flow. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. Saturday-Wednesday... Upper level trough across the SE US coast, including Florida will shift eastward away from Florida on Sunday as a high pressure system over the TX region begins to migrate eastward across the Deep south. This ridging will move over the Florida peninsula early next week and remain in place through mid week. At the surface, weak high pressure axis will remain over Florida through early next week. This will result in lower moisture across the local area, which will limit overall convection each day to near to below normal for this time of year. The Central American Gyre is still forecast to become active into mid next week. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the NW Carribean that has a medium chance (50 percent) of something forming over the next 7 days. East to northeast winds will persist over east central Florida through mid next week. Wind speeds will generally be 10-15 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph possible each day. Near to below normal rain chances are forecast through the time period, with models indicating drier air filtering in across the area early next week, which will further limit rain chances. Forecast PW values range from 1.5-1.8" this weekend, with values decreasing to 1.4-1.6" early next week, with the higher values generally occurring across the south. Thus, have maintained PoP 30-40 percent for much of the area through the weekend, and 10-30 percent through early week. The highest rain chances into early next week are generally across the south where the higher moisture is. Afternoon highs will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Due to the lower humidity, heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for Volusia, Brevard and the Treasure Coast through Sunday. The threat for minor coastal flooding persists during high tide cycles through at least Sunday. The highest water levels are forecast in the late morning hours with a lesser peak in the late evening. At the beach, the surf will be slowly building and the rip current risk will be moderate to high! Later Next Week... (Previous Discussion) All eyes remain on the extended forecast as most ensemble members and their respective means congeal deep tropical moisture and lower surface pressures over the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, that`s about where the agreement stops. The National Hurricane Center still highlights a 40% chance of tropical development with this disturbance. At this time, however, there is currently no well-defined system for models to track. Furthermore, the mid-latitude longwave pattern will be in the process of realignment. A weak trough is expected to push into the Midwest as ridging builds over the West ahead of an enhanced Pacific jet. There is a significant spread in the depth and timing of the Midwestern trough and its embedded vort maxima. All told, one should not expect a lot of clarity on this setup for 2-3 more days at least. It`s still way too early to determine whether any local impacts from this potential disturbance will occur. For now, we are showing a gradual uptick in shower/storm chances late next week. Keep checking weather.gov/mlb for updates over the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Current-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Boating conditions slowly become poorer over the next few days as onshore winds increase. As high pressure settles into the Appalachians, northeast winds freshen to 8-13 KT this afternoon and will persist through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms possible each day, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. By early next week, winds turn more easterly at 10-15 KT. Seas 2-4 FT through Saturday before building to 3-5 FT Sunday-Monday, and up to 6 feet in the offshore waters on Tuesday, largely driven by a northeast swell at 9-11 sec. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 10 30 MCO 74 89 74 90 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 75 88 76 89 / 20 30 20 30 VRB 73 89 74 89 / 20 40 20 40 LEE 73 89 73 91 / 0 20 0 20 SFB 73 88 74 89 / 10 40 10 40 ORL 74 90 75 90 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 73 88 74 89 / 20 40 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Kelly