392
FXUS62 KMLB 141429
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1029 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Invest AL90 is now to the northeast of Florida over the western
Atlantic near the South Carolina coast. A frontal boundary extends
from the low across east central Florida over Brevard and Osceola
county. The highest moisture is to the south of the boundary
which is where the highest rain chances is expected into the
afternoon. Meanwhile, GOES-16 satellite and water vapor imagery
show moisture being advected northeast over south Florida
associated with an area of low pressure over the western Carribean
and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Guidance indicates that moisture will increase into the afternoon
across central Florida from the southwest and as the east coast
sea breeze pushes inland and boundary interactions occur. Coverage
of showers and storms are forecast to increase into the afternoon
with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
forecast (PoPs ~30-60% north of the boundary and 50-70% to the
south). Afternoon highs are on track to reach the upper 80s to low
90s under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Winds are forecast
to veer onshore into the afternoon at 5-10mph.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

-Higher rain chances continue Today and Saturday, with locally heavy
 rainfall still a concern.

-Rain chances remain, but are forecast to gradually decrease into
 late weekend and next week as winds become onshore and breezy.

Today-Tonight... Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE today and
remain offshore the eastern US coast. A weak stationary front will
slide southward across northern portions of central Florida today
and remain in place. Locally, light winds this morning will veer
northward by late morning with winds speeds generally 5-10 mph. The
east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push
inland, with winds backing to the E/SE behind the boundary. Showers
and storms will form along the sea breeze, with the sea breeze
collision forecast to occur just to the west of our CWA, or along
the far western portion of our inland counties late this afternoon
and evening. Model differences remain with how much dry air filters
across the northern portions of central Florida (north of the
frontal boundary), with the ECM continuing to be the drier
solution. Have trended PoPs down to 40-70 percent, with 40-60
percent from Orlando northward, and 60 to 70s percent southward.
CAMs have trended down with overall convection today as well,
favoring the drier ECM solution. Forecast PW values range from 1.8-
2.1" from Orlando to Titusville southward, and 1.6-1.7" northward.
This will be sufficient moisture to support scattered to numerous
showers and isolated lightning storms this afternoon and evening.

Due to the deeper moisture across the southern portions of east
central Florida, the potential for locally heavy rainfall remains in
the forecast. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall today, mainly from Orlando to Melbourne southward. Locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will to be possible with any slow
moving or repeated rounds (training) of showers and storms. Other
storm hazards will continue to be occasional to frequent
cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this
time of year, with temperatures across the north being a little
warmer as cloud cover and rain chances will be slightly less across
that area as drier air filters in. Afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with temperatures possibly reaching in the mid
90s across the north.  Overnight lows will be average for this time
of year, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Sunday... The area of low pressure, designated Invest 90L,
will continue to move N/NE and remain just off the coast of the
eastern US. This system may strength some through early weekend. The
stationary front draped across northern portions of central Florida
will remain in place through early weekend before gradually fading
into the latter part of the weekend. High pressure will begin to
build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday.
This will in turn push the deeper moisture south and westward, away
from the local area. Light and variable winds Saturday morning will
become E/SE and increase in the afternoon behind the sea breeze,
with winds veering onshore and increasing on Sunday as the high
pressure builds over the area. Models continue to disagree about how
much dry air will filter across the northern portions of the CWA
(north of the stationary front), with the ECM remaining the drier
solution. Have maintained lowering rain chances through the weekend
from what the NBM model has. Thus, PoPs 40-70 percent on Saturday,
and 30-60 percent on Sunday, with the highest rain chances occurring
across the south both days. Forecast PW values range from 1.3-1.6"
across the north, and 1.7-1.2" across the south, which will support
scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning
storms each day.

WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on
Saturday, mainly across the southern portion of the CWA. Locally
heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will to be possible with any slow
moving or repeated rounds (training) of showers and storms on
Saturday. Due to the drier air filtering across the area, and the
deeper moisture being pushed southward, ECFL is not in an ERO for
Sunday. Other storm hazards through the weekend will continue to be
occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty
winds.

Temperatures will be average to slightly above normal for this time
of year, with the northern sections continuing to be slightly
warmer. Skies will be partly sunny across the north and partly to
mostly cloudy across the south though the weekend. Afternoon highs
will be in the low to mid 90s across the north and upper 80s to low
90s across the south both days. Overnight lows will be in the low
to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US
will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as it shifts
north and eastward across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. An
upper level low will push westward across the Florida peninsula
late in the period, causing the ridge to retreat slightly
northward. Locally, onshore flow will remain in place through the
period as high pressure dominates. Wind will be breezy, with
speeds generally 10-15 mph. Much like with Sunday, due to the high
pressure building southward over the FL peninsula, the deeper
moisture will remain south and west of the local area, as drier
air filters across the area. Uncertainty remains in overall rain
chances through mid week as models remain in slight disagreement.
The GFS remains the wetter solution as the ECM shows slightly
drier air filtering in across the area. The NBM continues to have
categorical PoPs. Thus, have limited the PoPs over the local area.
Have maintained PoPs 50-70 percent on Monday, and 50 percent area
wide Tue-Thur. Temperatures will be seasonable through the
period, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and
overnight lows remaining in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Stratus not as prominent as previous two early mornings, but
will still monitor if it expands more across ECFL. Models continue
to hint at drier air northward (Volusia Cty) and we will see an
inland progression of the ECSB this afternoon - quicker north of
the Treasure Coast. Lower SHRA/TSRA chances in the KDAB-KTIX
corridor. Scattered SHRA/TSRA for interior TAF sites and should
develop from 18Z-20Z in the KSFB-KMCO corridor and move farther
inland through late afternoon twd the KLEE-KISM corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today-Tonight... Invest 90L will continue to move N/NE today and
remain offshore the eastern US coast. The Stationary front will
remain in place across the northern portion of central Florida.
Winds will generally be Westward today before backing onshore with
the formation of the afternoon east coast sea breeze. Seas 1-2ft
across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore waters.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered
lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture
remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral southward.

Saturday-Tuesday... The stationary front will remain in place across
the northern portion of central Florida through the early part of
the weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the
weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE through Sunday,
remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure will build off the
eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and continue
through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday will veer E/SE in the
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Onshore flow will
develop on Sunday and continue through early week as the high
pressure builds over the local area. Breezy conditions are forecast
early next week, with speeds generally 10-15 KT will 15-20 KT
possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to
numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each
day, especially across the southern waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  91  74 /  30  20  40  10
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  89  74  89  75 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  89  74  89  74 /  70  50  60  30
LEE  94  76  94  76 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  92  74  93  74 /  40  20  50  10
ORL  92  76  92  75 /  50  20  60  10
FPR  89  73  89  73 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock