Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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040 FXUS62 KMLB 150112 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Shower and storm activity has diminished across east central Florida this evening, with most activity shifting westward across the peninsula. Model guidance continues to indicate limited chances for continued development overnight, so went ahead and reduced rain chances quite a bit across southern portions of the forecast area. In general, a 15 to 25 percent chance of rainfall from the Orlando metro to Melbourne and areas southward remains, though confidence in even this remains low. Outside of the rain chances, the forecast for east central Florida remains on track with minimal adjustments. Winds are forecast to become light and variable tonight, with skies remaining mostly cloudy across the south. Less cloud coverage across the Volusia area and even northern Lake County could lead to some patchy fog development as hinted at by guidance. Any fog that does manage to develop will diminish near to shortly after sunrise. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday.... A similar forecast to Friday is expected over east central Florida as a weak frontal boundary slowly sags south across south-central and into southern Florida Saturday evening. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon (PoPs ~ 60-70%) as winds veer onshore and the east coast sea breeze pushes inland with boundary interactions expected over the western interior of central Florida, as well as the Treasure Coast. Drier air to the northeast will keep rain chances lower (30-40%) over Volusia, Seminole, and northern Brevard counties. The main hazards will be occasional to frequent lightning, moderate to locally heavy rainfall at times (locally up to 1-3"), and wind gusts up to 30-40mph. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Flooding has been outlooked over most of east central Florida with minor flooding possible (5% risk), mainly over areas that have observed recent high rainfall amounts. Winds are forecast to veer east-southeast into the afternoon at 5-10mph. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast. Sunday (modified previous discussion)... High pressure will begin to build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday. This will in turn push the deeper moisture south and westward, away from the local area. Light and variable winds Saturday morning will become E/SE and increase in the afternoon behind the sea breeze, with winds veering onshore and increasing on Sunday as the high pressure builds over the area. Models continue to disagree about how much dry air will filter across the northern portions of the CWA (north of the stationary front), with the ECM remaining the drier solution. Have maintained lowering rain chances through the weekend from what the NBM model has. Thus, PoPs 30-60 percent on Sunday, with the highest rain chances occurring across the south. Forecast PW values range from 1.3-1.6" across the north, and 1.7-1.2" across the south, which will support scattered showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms. Due to the drier air filtering across the area, and the deeper moisture being pushed southward, ECFL is not in an ERO for Sunday. Other storm hazards will continue to be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds. Temperatures will be average to slightly above normal for this time of year, with the northern sections continuing to be slightly warmer. Skies will be partly sunny across the north and partly to mostly cloudy across the south. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the north and upper 80s to low 90s across the south. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Monday-Thursday (previous discussion)... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US will continue to build over the Florida peninsula as it shifts north and eastward across the eastern CONUS through mid- week. An upper level low will push westward across the Florida peninsula late in the period, causing the ridge to retreat slightly northward. Locally, onshore flow will remain in place through the period as high pressure dominates. Wind will be breezy, with speeds generally 10-15 mph. Much like with Sunday, due to the high pressure building southward over the FL peninsula, the deeper moisture will remain south and west of the local area, as drier air filters across the area. Uncertainty remains in overall rain chances through mid week as models remain in slight disagreement. The GFS remains the wetter solution as the ECM shows slightly drier air filtering in across the area. The NBM continues to have categorical PoPs. Thus, have limited the PoPs over the local area. Have maintained PoPs 50-70 percent on Monday, and 50 percent area wide Tue-Thur. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Activity is winding down across east central Florida this evening, with a few lingering showers and storms expected to diminish over the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Some guidance is indicating the potential for patchy fog near DAB and low CIGs across the terminals tonight, but confidence was not there to make any sites MVFR. Will continue to monitor through the overnight and amend as needed. Winds pick back up out of the east- southeast around 5 knots at 15Z. VCSH and VCTS possible from TIX southward along the coast after 18Z and across the interior terminals after 20Z. Activity diminishing along the coast between 21-23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous discussion)... Invest 90L will continues to move N/NE away from the eastern US coast. The Stationary front will remain in place across central Florida. Seas 1-2ft across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. East winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer offshore overnight. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered lightning storms will continue this evening as deep tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... The stationary front will remain in place across central Florida through the early part of the weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE through Sunday, remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure will build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and continue through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday will veer E/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Onshore flow will develop on Sunday and continue through early week as the high pressure builds over the local area. Breezy conditions are forecast early next week, with speeds generally 10-15 KT will 15-20 KT possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day, especially across the southern waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 30 MCO 74 90 75 90 / 20 60 20 50 MLB 74 88 75 88 / 20 60 30 50 VRB 73 88 74 88 / 20 60 20 40 LEE 75 92 76 93 / 20 60 10 40 SFB 74 92 74 92 / 10 50 10 40 ORL 76 92 76 91 / 20 60 20 50 FPR 73 87 73 88 / 20 60 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Tollefsen