936
FXUS62 KILM 032012 CCA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
312 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will return through Thursday. A weak backdoor
cold front will drop through late Thursday. Waves of low
pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing
clouds and periods of rain from Friday into the weekend. Mostly
dry conditions may return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast zonal jet sits over the Carolinas between an upper ridge over
Cuba and a series of disturbances zipping across the Great Lakes and
New England.  A strong subsidence inversion between 3k and 10k feet
(875-700 mb) has trapped a thin layer of moisture across mainly
South Carolina leading to persistent low clouds and temperatures
running well below earlier model projections. Winds within the thin
moisture-bearing layer should veer from southwest to northwest
overnight, clearing out the clouds with time.

Clearing skies and very light winds could trigger the development of
ground fog late tonight. The odds of fog appear highest across
southeastern North Carolina, however even here objective model
blends only indicate a small (<10 percent) potential for visibility
less than one mile. Forecast lows range from 29-32 inland to the mid-
upper 30s on the beaches.

At the surface, broad 1023 mb high pressure centered over Kentucky
covers most of the eastern U.S.  This high will weaken tonight as a
second stronger area of high pressure builds down from the northern
Plains states on Friday. Mid and high level moisture should increase
across the Carolinas on Thursday in advance of a frontal wave
developing along the Gulf Coast. Rain chances should remain less
than 10 percent even during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances rise fairly rapidly Thursday night and low pressure
developing on the Gulf Coast starts to fling moisture our way.
Rainfall rates should increase Friday into Friday night as the low
level baroclinicity associated with the Gulf low shifts northward
increasing isentropic upglide into the Carolinas. It`ll be a chilly
rain with the wedge to the north firmly entrenched, highs ranging
from low 50s coast to mid 40s inland. And although both nights will
be cold enough for non-liquid precipitation to sometimes be in
question the continued warmth above the low level inversion will
preclude anything wintry at this time. Not to mention that with
the extensive cloud cover in place our current forecast lows
may be a bit too cool.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast confidence takes a hit on Saturday. The front from the
short term will still be a good rainmaker for parts of the Southeast
but there is some question as to how far north or south. Currently
this uncertainty brings the categorical POPs of the short term down
but still in the likely category. A forecast refinement maximizing
if not confining rain to SC certainly seems possible in the future.
Sunday and Monday it seems more likely that the front and its
moisture/rain will be south of the area and POPs cut back to slight
chance. The final impulse aloft should push through on Monday
allowing for some even colder air to move into the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stubborn low cloud bases should finally lift above 3000 feet no
later than 20z at Wilmington (KILM). Farther inland and across South
Carolina, stratus with bases of 3500-4000 feet AGL may linger
through the evening at Myrtle Beach (KMYR), Florence (KFLO), and
Lumberton (KLBT) before dissipating overnight.

Assuming skies clear overnight there is a moderate to high potential
for ground fog to develop at Wilmington after 08z, and a low to
moderate potential at Florence and Lumberton. Any visibility issues
should clear by 13z Thursday morning with light winds continuing.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
night. The next frontal low pressure system will bring a high
likelihood of ceiling and visibility restrictions in rain Friday
into Friday night. Adverse aviation weather conditions could
continue at times through the weekend and into Monday as a second
wave of low pressure develops to our south.
&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...High pressure will build across the Carolinas
tonight with light mainly northwesterly winds expected. Winds
should remain light Thursday with directions becoming variable in
the afternoon with a weak seabreeze possible. The dominant wave
group through tomorrow should be a 10 second ESE swell averaging
1-2 feet in height, topped off by a small wind chop and a small 7
second southerly swell. Combined seas should average 2-3 feet.

Thursday night through Monday...Northerly winds to start the period
as high pressure wedges in from the north. Over southern waters
where the leading edge of this high/frontal boundary will be found
may see more of a NE flow. Later in the weekend the high to our
north weakens as does the local northerly flow. Wind waves abate
slightly but the E to SE swell continues. A series of fairly flat
low pressure centers will ride up the offshore boundary locking in
NE flow for the remainder of the period. The last one, Sunday night
into Monday, appears to be the strongest and could necessitate an
advisory.

High pressure will build across the Carolinas tonight with light
mainly northwesterly winds expected. Winds should remain light
Thursday with directions becoming variable in the afternoon with a
weak seabreeze possible. The dominant wave group through tomorrow
should be a 10 second ESE swell averaging 1-2 feet in height, topped
off by a small wind chop and a small 7 second southerly swell.
Combined seas should average 2-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM