Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 161819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Enough moisture will remain for a chance of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1043 AM Thursday...

Fog and low stratus deck over the region is beginning to
dissipate, but rather slowly, and may linger across portions of
the area until noon, or slightly after. Because of this, have
slightly lowered the high temps for today, and adjusted the
hourly temps accordingly, with the rest of the forecast
remaining on track. Isolated showers/storms will be possible
this afternoon and evening, particuarly in the mountains, and in
the near vicinity, with any activity quickly diminishing near
sunset.

As of 1250 AM Thursday...

Fog and/or a stratus deck developing across the area early this
morning.

Despite upper level ridging today, models showing enough
moisture remaining for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon in West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. The
showers and thunderstorms should end quickly in the late
afternoon or early evening, leaving the remainder of Thursday
night dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 PM Thursday...

Model consensus shows a shortwave trof will push across eastern
Canada and the Great Lakes states Friday night and Saturday. As a
result, northwest flow is forecast to develop across the region.

A cold front will push into the area and weaken on Saturday. There
is still some question on exactly how far south the boundary will
make it.  Precipitation chances should wind down after sunset
Friday.  However, chances will return from the west late Friday
night and Saturday.

An upper level ridge will build in on Sunday, along with high
pressure in the lower levels. This should result in a much quieter
and drier finish to the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the weekend,
with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands, and
upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows will be in the 60s with
mid to upper 50s in the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1253 PM Thursday...

At the start of the long term period, an upper level ridge will be
located along the east coast while a longwave trough will be
over the western half of the country. Models suggest a shortwave
trough will be located across the lower Mississippi valley.

The shortwave trough will move northeast and weaken while the
longwave trough pushes east and deepens. This will result in the
upper level ridge breaking down and drifting southeast.

Long range models differ on the progress of the eastward
progress of the longwave trough with the GFS being slightly
faster than the ECMWF. The models also differ in the location of
a cold front which should push east late in the period.

The end result should be increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures falling to normal or even
slightly below normal values late.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

After an extended period of restrictions this morning, most
terminals have returned to VFR, with HTS and PKB still having MVFR
restrictions due to lower ceilings. Ceilings should continue to
lift within the next hour or so, with all terminals returning
to VFR. A few isolated showers/storms are possible this
afternoon, mainly across the eastern/southern portion of the
area. Very brief MVFR is possible if a terminal were to be
affected by a heavier shower/storm.

Any showers/storms should quickly dissipate after sunset, with
fog being the main concern for the overnight. Fog will be much
less widespread than last night, but IFR/MVFR restrictions will
still be possible, particuarly at CKB, CRW, and EKN. LIFR is
currently progged for EKN. Restrictions should lift quicker
tomorrow morning, with most terminals returning to VFR by 14Z.
Friday should begin fair, with isolated showers/storms possible
across the eastern/southern areas starting around noon.

Surface winds for the remainder of the afternoon/evening will be
light and variable, generally under 10 kts. Winds overnight will
be light and variable, generally under 5 kts. Flow Friday
morning becomes southerly, at 6 kts or less.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Very brief MVFR is possible this
afternoon/evening under any heavier showers or storms. Timing,
coverage, and intensity of fog tonight may vary from the TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Dense valley fog is possible Saturday morning, especially in
areas that receive showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/04
NEAR TERM...RPY/04
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...04


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