451
FXUS61 KRLX 222358
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, but cold tonight with arctic air in place through Thursday
morning. The next system may bring light snow Thursday evening
into Friday morning while interrupting moderating temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track, with no changes needed at this time to the
Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the northern mountains into
Thursday morning.

As of 115 PM Wednesday...

Another cold night is expected across the area, however
temperatures are not expected to be quite as cold, with a light
southerly flow taking hold and perhaps a few passing clouds out
ahead of the next system. However, thinking that valley
locations, particularly those across the higher terrain will
still have very cold temperatures again, and did trend to below
guidance in these areas. Therefore, expanded the extreme cold
advisory into NW Randolph and Barbour counties for now.

On Thursday, temperatures will warm nicely across the area with a
gusty southwesterly flow taking hold, with many locations actually
rising above freezing. Went with a blend of models for the high
temperatures on Thursday. There will be the possibility of a few
light snow showers or flurries taking hold across the far north
towards the end of the period as a system moves east across Canada,
eventually sweeping another cold front across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...

A clipper system transits the region Thursday night bringing
potential for some light snowfall accumulations (generally few
tenths to half an inch for the lower elevations and a couple inches
in the mountains) as well as putting a pause on the warming trend.
Central guidance PoPs were mostly under slight chance, so increased
these as much as possible while remaining in collaboration with
neighboring offices to reflect the potential for some light, high
ratio snow accumulations. Highs Friday will once again fail to crest
the freezing mark area wide and a modest breeze Friday night into
Saturday morning coupled with higher elevations temperatures diving
back toward the lower single digits may necessitate another cold
weather advisory as wind chill values again fall to near minus
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...

Through a bulk of the long term period the region will be sandwiched
between the Arctic front to the north and polar front to the south.
Across the north, a parade of clippers will transit the Great Lakes
region yielding periodic, but relatively brief returns to
northwesterly flow. The bigger moisture contribution likely comes
from the more southern (but still polar frontal) systems transiting
mainly to our south. As far as sensible weather, currently not
looking at anything too impactful - mainly periods of light snow for
Sunday into Monday perhaps an inch or two accumulations in the
higher terrain possible (to include the higher terrain in the
southern coalfields) but this will ultimately depend on timing of
both streams. Late in the period there looks to be some potential
for better phasing between these features which would net better
poleward moisture draw, but spread in guidance is too wide to say
more than that a week out.

Temperatures finally return to near normal values for this time
of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

VFR flight conditions prevail this period, with nothing more
than patchy mid and high cloud through Thursday morning.
Stratocumulus arrives Thursday afternoon, ahead of an
approaching cold front, but ceilings should remain VFR, above 3
kft, through the end of the TAF period, 00Z Friday.

Light and variable to southeast flow tonight will veer to light
southwest Thursday morning ahead of the front, and then freshen
and become gusty at times, into the 15-20 kt range, late
Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Light to moderate
southwest flow aloft through Thursday morning will veer to
light to moderate west Thursday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ040-523-
     525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM