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000
FXUS61 KRLX 060227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, pleasant weather continues through Thursday. A cold front
moves through on Friday bringing below normal temperatures and a
small chance for rain. Dry and crisp weekend on tap behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1025 PM Thursday...

Forecast on track, with temperatures and dew points converged
along the rivers.

As of 730 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track this quiet evening, including a stout dew
point/humidity recovery in most locations.

As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Quiet weather continues through the near term period as surface
high pressure settles in across the region overnight tonight.
Clear skies, light winds, and cool air temperatures over warm
water will yield river valley fog forming generally after
midnight tonight. For most of the area overnight, dew points
remain above 36 degrees with temperatures in the upper 30s or
lower 40s resulting in minimal risk for even patchy frost.
Across the Greenbrier valley there is at least some indication
that dew points under 32 degrees this afternoon may not quite
recover into the mid 30s overnight, yielding a conditional
patchy frost risk. Given the low probability of this occurring
and limited impact of frost on any crops still in the ground
this late in the season, will forgo any frost highlights for the
lower elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph County.

Could see some improvement in any valley fog a little earlier than
diurnally Thursday morning with an upper level wave approaching our
NW counties near daybreak. Other than slightly stirring up the low
levels and increasing mid-level cloudiness, little other sensible
weather is expected with this feature. Given a very dry sub-cloud
layer, any precipitation that does fall out of this mid-level deck
will likely manifest as virga.

The wave clears toward mid-morning with clearing skies.
Increasing warm air advection ahead of a cold front slated for
passage Friday yields highs in the lower to mid 70s across the lower
elevations and 60s in the mountains Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

A cold front moves into the region Thursday night bringing
seasonally cooler conditions for the upcoming weekend. Cloudy and
cool can be expected on Friday with a few showers developing along
the front as it passes through. Northwesterly winds increase after
the frontal passage with gusts between 15-25 mph. Winds taper down
by late evening across the low lands with gusts continuing
overnight across the mountains before tapering Saturday morning.
Wind chills across the higher mountain peaks early Saturday morning
will range between 20-30 mph.

Clouds clear by Saturday afternoon with a ridge building from the
west. Seasonably cool temperatures max out in the 50s across the low
lands and in the 40s and 50s across the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

Temperatures Saturday night will likely be the coldest of the
fall season thus far as clear skies allow maximum radiational
cooling overnight. Lows bottom out in the mid 30s area-wide
with mountains dipping into the upper 20s and lower 30s. An
areawide frost is anticipated heading into Sunday morning.

A small rebound for daytime highs is expected on Sunday under sunny
skies with overnight lows a degree or two warmer.

A weak disturbance dropping out of the northwest on Monday brings a
few clouds across the region; otherwise, quiet weather is anticipated
for the start of the week. The jet stream influence shifts out
of the south next Tuesday into the middle of next week bringing
daytime highs up to seasonal normals. The next chance for rain
is advertised by models next Wednesday as weak disturbances ride
up from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Wednesday...

Clear sky overnight, coupled with light wind, will yield river
valley steam fog primarily affecting EKN, CRW, and PKB, but
could also approach CKB and HTS. An approaching upper level wave
in the predawn hours may yield some improvement in any fog
ahead of daybreak in the middle Ohio Valley, but otherwise
expect VFR conditions by 14Z.

The aforementioned wave will do little else other than increase
mid-level clouds/virga through midday Thursday, before clear
takes place from west to east during the afternoon.

Surface flow will be light and variable, mainly south, while
light northerly flow aloft becomes light and variable
overnight, and then light west on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog coverage and timing could vary from
the forecast overnight tonight and early Thursday morning. Of
locations where fog is not coded up, CKB is the most likely
location to be impacted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 10/06/22
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in morning river valley fog Friday
through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KH/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...TRM