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000
FXUS61 KRLX 030622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry and sunny weather through midweek,
with river valley fog developing each night. A cold front crosses
Friday evening, followed by much cooler weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Quiet conditions prevail under persistent high pressure. Despite
this,an elevated heat-source based shower popped up near our
highest terrain late Monday, and the same may happen late today
given adequate moisture beneath the mid level subsidence
inversion.

Otherwise, the one impact high pressure cannot suppress, and in
fact, induces, is the overnight and early morning dense river
valley fog with the help of the mild autumn river water, with
water temperatures still in the mid 60s to lower 70s along the
main stems. The fog has been setting in a bit later and with
less coverage, and has become a bit more erratic with each
passing dry day since the last rain.

High pressure exits to the east tonight, allowing a light
gradient flow from the south to southeast. This may hinder fog a
bit further, especially out across the middle Ohio Valley.

Highs today and lows tonight will again be equal to or a bit
higher than highs Monday and lows early this morning,
respectively. This continues the current above normal stretch,
especially on highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

High pressure, with dry conditions and above normal temperatures
continues through Thursday. Clouds and winds will be on the
increase during the day Thursday out ahead of an approaching
front, which will spread precipitation back into the area late
Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Monday...

Showers, and isolated thunderstorms will be on the increase Friday,
as a cold front and upper trough, approach and move through the area
Friday evening/night. Showers may linger into early Saturday, but
overall, drier and cooler weather will take hold this weekend as we
remain under the influence of an upper trough. Cooler and drier
weather continues into next week as upper low/trough axis pivots
east, and a northwesterly flow aloft sets up. Although temperatures
across some mountain locations look to dip into the 30s this weekend
and early next week , much in the way of frost formation is not
expected at this time due to projected winds, although at this
distance, there is still uncertainty, particularly in sheltered
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

High pressure continues with VFR outside the overnight and early
morning VLIFR dense fog. The dense fog should settle in more
consistently at EKN 07-08Z, and then thin and lift by 13Z. CKB
and PKB visibility should dip into the MVFR range by 07Z, with
IFR to VLIFR conditions at times, until the fog thins and lifts
around 13Z. CRW and HTS visibility should dip into the MVFR
range by 08-09Z, with IFR to VLIFR conditions at times at HTS
until the fog thins and lifts around 13Z, and toward dawn,
11-13Z, at CRW, before thinning and lifting there. BKW should
remain VFR through the period, where low level flow does not
favor fog development.

Light east to northeast flow surface and aloft today will become
light south to southeast tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of IFR/LIFR conditions may vary from
forecast. Fluctuations are likely before the fog thins and
lifts around 13Z. Fog tonight may start forming at EKN before
06Z, but should hold off until after 06Z elsewhere.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 10/03/23
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Wednesday and
Thursday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM