Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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926 FXUS63 KEAX 012041 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for several rounds of storms returns Sunday morning through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weakly amplified pattern currently dominates the Central Plains States as a weak disturbance/MCV, that brought rain yesterday and overnight, continue to slowly drift east; while a weak ridge axis is noted over the Rockies in response to a trough making landfall across the Pacific coast. On radar, a few lingering showers are seen across central and eastern Missouri thanks to diurnal heating under the center of the exiting MCV. What activity is out there will continue to move east and thus will not be an issue for the west half of Missouri, or Kansas, tonight. What we will watch for tonight is another weak shortwave, currently moving through the ridge axis to our west, which is expected to develop another convective system across the Western High Plains. Currently, expectations are that the complex will move east with the help of the nocturnal jet, but will likely start falling apart in the morning as the jet mixes out. Have kept some low end POPs for Sunday morning as a result. Sunday night through Tuesday will see the quick return of another couple rounds of storms to the region as a couple of troughs move across the Nation. Sunday night into Monday, the trough currently across the Pacific coast will push through the Rockies initiating another round of overnight convection off the High Plains. This activity would likely arrive in eastern Kansas and western Missouri early Monday morning, spreading across Missouri and falling apart through the day. While this activity does not look overly organized at this time, there is sufficient shear that strong to damaging winds will be possible as the storms arrive. However, this is not the end. Another trough, currently off the Pacific coast, will sweep east into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday. This will result in a deepening trough across the Northern Plains which will help push a cold front across Kansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon and evening, which will likely be the focus for storms in that time period. Otherwise, once the mid-work-week trough moves through expect dry conditions to prevail through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 There is currently a mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions over the terminals as a low pressure system to the east is filtering in cloud coverage. Ceilings are expected to raise to VFR thresholds starting around 19Z. Additional cloud coverage is expected to move over the terminals around 07Z Sunday morning, with the ceiling heights to be determined. Winds will be out of the northwest around 5-10 knots before shifting to more south-southwesterly flow around 04-05Z Saturday night. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cutter AVIATION...Hayes