Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 190503
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

With primarily zonal flow dominating for much of the upcoming
week, little shortwaves rippling through the flow will keep the
region in an unsettled pattern, culminating at the end of the week
with a stout system looking to traverse through. Mentionable precip
chances will persist off and on starting tomorrow morning through
next weekend. As for thunder chances, instability moving in
overnight tonight through Monday night could allow for
thunderstorms to develop, should precip be able to form. The
limiting factor for storm development late tonight will be the
lack of moisture above the lower to mid-levels, which would
translate to perhaps some drizzle instead, but as moist, WAA
ramps up tomorrow, could see slightly better chances late tomorrow
night. Should some of those storms become strong tomorrow night,
can`t rule out the possibility of some marginally severe hail.
Once the cold front responsible for the triggering of some of this
activity moves through, thunder chances in general drop off with
just some showers possible overnight Monday into Tuesday. Thunder
chances look to reintroduce themselves later in the week.

Temperatures tomorrow look to rise well above normal, reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the western two-thirds of the forecast
area. The warmer temps look to persist into Monday but by Tuesday
and Wednesday, near normal temps return. Look for another warm-up
toward the end of the week with warm air anticipated to advect
back in ahead of the aforementioned stout system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 19 2017

Models and upstream observations continue to show good signal for
sct/bkn cigs of 4-6kft overnight. Warm air advection may result
in few/scattered thunderstorms near terminal space after sunrise
through the mid morning hours. Dry air below 3kft should generally
limit MVFR cigs, and latest SREF probabilities support VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Blair



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