Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152345

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Widespread cloud cover has helped keep temperatures down today, with
the exception of far southeastern sections of the forecast area. A
notable temperature gradient exists across the CWA, with upper 60s
in NW MO to the lower 80s in central MO. The cloud cover has helped
stabilize much of the area, with only modest elevated CAPE advecting
into the area. Light precipitation is expected across the area later
this afternoon into the evening hours as weak ascent from a wave
glances the area. The highest probability of thunderstorms will be
across the northeast quarter of the CWA, closest to the greatest
lift and instability. That said, storms are expected to remain below
severe levels, although brief gusty winds will be possible with any
storms that can translate the strong winds downward just off the
surface. Gradient wind speeds will remain gusty up to sunset before
speeds relax. Outside of precipitation concerns tonight will be fog
potential across northwest Missouri. As the cold front approaches
and stalls, winds will relax in this region with dewpoint
depressions approaching zero. Some uncertainty exists how much of
this will be in the form of stratus versus fog, but at the least,
patchy dense fog should be expected.

Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday as the
forecast area remains in the warm sector, with afternoon readings
residing mainly in the 80s. The initial stalled cold front pushes
through Tuesday, but all signs point to a dry frontal passage at
this time. Much cooler weather advects into the CWA by mid to late
week. High uncertainty exists in the extended with the evolution of
the next trough and the related impacts to the CWA, but the latest
trend is to place an extended period of widespread precipitation
just southeast of the CWA during the mid to late week time frame.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Back edge of MVFR ceilings shifting east out of northwest and west
central MO and this trend will continue this evening. Back edge of
VFR stratocu is also clearing out of northeast KS. All this will
likely be temporary with MVFR ceilings likely reforming by the pre-
dawn hours. Also believe northwest MO and northeast KS stand a decent
chance of seeing dense fog with IFR/LIFR visibilities/ceilings if
skies stay clear for several hours. Still think scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible across mainly north central and
northeast MO. Any rain should have ended by sunrise Sunday.

Morning IFR/MVFR ceilings and any fog should improve by mid to late
morning with VFR conditions by noon hours. Afternoon winds should
also increase with gusts.




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