Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171129

629 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

Issued at 307 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

Trailing stratiform area of rainfall will continue to push east of
the forecast area this morning with most areas being dry by later
this morning or early this afternoon. Winds will be veered to the
southwest today with warm temperatures aloft working over the region.
Deep mixing into these temperatures should lead to highs in the low
to mid 80s. Despite the southwesterly surface flow and deeper mixing,
dewpoints still look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s so it still
looks like relatively humid conditions will persist into this
afternoon. The cold front will then move through late in the evening
and then temperatures and dewpoints will drop with much more
comfortable conditions expected Monday. The high pressure responsible
for this cooler and drier airmass will continue to influence the
region through Tuesday. However, rainfall is expected to build into
the area overnight as an impulse moves out of the main longwave
trough over the west. Widespread shower activity is likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a result. Instability looks weak so only
isolated/embedded thunder is expected. The pattern looks to repeat
itself next weekend as low level flow becomes southerly ahead of a
robust upper level trough. With more persistent southerly flow,
greater instability should build so there will be better chances for
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MVFR low stratus prevailing over area terminals this morning. Expect
these conditions to prevail through roughly 16z before drier air
arrives from the west and leads to improvement. Otherwise...VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the fcst period. Gusty
southeast winds this morning will eventually veer to the southwest
by late morning/early afternoon. Winds should begin to weaken by
late afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes.




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