Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231208
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Early morning water vapor imagery still revealing a notable cyclonic
spin across the Nation/s midsection as broad upper low remains
entrenched over the region. Meanwhile...regional radars showing any
precip associated with this feature displaced north across IA and
NE...with dry conditions further south across the Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. As we progress through the day today...expect this trend to
continue through at least early afternoon...before precip chances begin
increasing from northwest to southeast towards early evening as main
mid-level vort max and sfc trough begin rotating through the area.

Fcst focus with this morning/s package revolves around P-type and
lgt snow accumulations beginning tonight and lasting through the day
tomorrow. Inspection of several fcst soundings across northwest
Missouri shows a fairly dry layer in the prime dendritic snow growth
region through 00z this evening...with a steady increase expected
thereafter as moisture arrives behind a departing sfc low that will
be lifting northeast into the western Lakes tonight. There seems to
be decent agreement on the thermal and moisture evolution later
today...and as a result...have -RA shwrs advertised for the far
northwestern zones this afternoon before showing a gradual change
over to a RA/SN mix and eventually all snow overnight. Despite the
snow fcst overnight...QPF amounts will remain light /generally under
0.05"/ which should yield little more than a few tenths of an inch in
spots.

Concerns yesterday for a moderate snow storm across the EAX CWA on
Wednesday continue to diminish as guidance agrees that developing
sfc low across the Lwr Miss Rvr Vly late this afternoon will remain
well enough east to have little if any impact on our area. That
said...region is not out of the woods on Wednesday as models suggest
lgt snow shwrs will prevail through portions of the day as
additional shortwave energy and associated mid-level trough axis
move over the area. Again...QPF amounts look very light and any snow
accumulations through the day should remain under a half inch at
best.

Notable warmup expected as we head into the Christmas holiday as weak
ridging builds aloft and moderate warm air advection occurs ahead of
digging trough across the western U.S. In fact...models agree that
850-hPa temps should increase to near 8C across the far western zones
by 18z Thursday. This should support temps in the upper 40s to and
maybe lower 50s Christmas Day.

After this...next main weather feature set to arrive late
Friday/early Saturday as a strong cold front blasts through the
region. Overall...feature looks to have little impact over the
region aside from a quick drop in temps heading into the weekend.
Another weak storm system then expected to pass to our south and east
on Saturday which may yield a few light RA/SN shwrs across the
eastern zones...but little to no precip further west towards the KC
Metro. Overall...extended period looks to remain below normal and
mostly dry through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Large scale upper disturbance continues to impact the region this
morning. Lower clouds over north-central KS and southern NE will
gradually work south which should lead to a gradual decrease to MVFR
at both STJ and MCI by late morning/early afternoon. By
tonight...precip will begin spreading south with rain gradually
changing over to snow by late evening. As this occurs...cigs should
also fall into the IFR category with decreasing VSBYs as well.

Winds initially out of the WSW this morning will shift to the W and
eventually NW later tonight after main trough axis slides through.
Speeds of 5-10 kts today will increase slightly to 10-15 kts
overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32







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