Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 021737
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014
Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014
Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.
Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.
The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014
Moisture remnant from this morning`s low clouds and fog is beginning
to lift into a scattered MVFR deck. Bases of these should lift above
2000 feet in the next hour or two, but can`t rule out some broken
cigs below this level through this time. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop late tonight in advance of a warm front.
Coverage expected to be about 30 to 40 percent across the western
MO/eastern KS region, so will go with a vicinity group at this point.