Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 112316
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2017

Low clouds are dissipating in a general west to east fashion this
afternoon with surface ridging sitting over the area. On the western
side of the surface ridge, winds quickly increase from the south
across central KS, with lee troughing in the high Plains. As all
of this shifts east tonight, it may set the stage for some fog to
develop. But timing the clouds exiting and the winds increasing on
the backside of the ridge is uncertainty still. Regardless, feel
like there`s potential for some fog tonight mainly in the eastern
half of the forecast area. Think that the pressure gradient will
strengthen enough over the western quarter to third of the
forecast area that winds should prevent fog from developing.

Southerly flow will continue through Saturday evening, leading to
warmer temperatures and more humid conditions. By Saturday
afternoon, precipitable water values will be approaching 2 inches
along and ahead of the advancing cold front. This is very anomalous
moisture for this time of year. In addition, with a strong upper
system tracking north of the region, with strong mid to upper level
flow, shear is expected to be strong. We should also be in a
favorable right rear quadrant of the upper jet, aiding diffluence
aloft. The warm and humid conditions will also allow for moderate
instability to build through the day. The combination of moderate
instability with strong shear suggest the potential for severe
storms during the evening and overnight hours. This isn`t an ideal
set up for possible tornadoes given the timing, veered surface winds
and weaker low level instability. 0-3 km wind shear may also be
from a less than ideal orientation relative to the orientation of
the front. But if individual segments take on a more north-south
orientation that would greatly enhance the influence of the 0-3km
shear orientation. Regardless, strong wind fields suggest a
potential for strong winds at the surface. The high precipitable
water values also indicate potential for locally heavy rain.

Much cooler conditions are expected Sunday, in the wake of the
front. But temperatures will moderate closer to normal by the start
of next work week which, for this time of year, is in the upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the evening and early
overnight as surface high pressure settles over the area. Tonight,
increasing chances of fog are coming into view given the lingering
low-level moisture in the wake of departing stratus to the east.
Clear skies will permit surface temps to rapidly cool and approach
dew point values prior to sunrise. Increasing winds should limit
this potential to MVFR development, though will monitor the
possibility of IFR prior to the 06Z issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh



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