Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 072322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 202 PM CST THU DEC 7 2017

A secondary frontal boundary pushed through last night bringing our
temperatures to the lowest of the year so far this morning with a
stiff breeze and single digit wind chills.  The surface high
pressure will shift into OK tonight with riding and warmer air
building into the region from the west.  A weak elevated warm front
will pass through overnight helping to keep winds between 5-10mph
throughout the night and shifting to the W-SW. This should keep our
temperatures slightly higher than this morning in the upper teens to
lower 20s near the metro.  This SW flow and WAA will help
temperatures rebound into the lower 40s Friday afternoon ahead of
another upper level shortwave trough and associated cold front that
will push through Friday night. This cooler air and front will shift
winds to the NW increasing with gusts in the lower 20s which will
drop wind chill values down into the single digits with lows
Saturday morning in the low to mid 20s.

This will be the last shot of colder air for a few days as large
amplitude upper level ridge will start to advect into our region
shifting surface winds to the W and bringing temperatures back above
average into the mid 50s Sunday. A clipper system will push through
the Great Lakes Sunday night extending a dry backdoor cold front
through our area Monday decreasing high temperatures slightly in
northern Missouri into the mid 40s. A strong LLJ will build into the
area behind this boundary increasing a strong NW wind with sustained
winds near 20mph and gusts up to near 35mph. Our area will be caught
between the warmer air and ridging out west and the cooler air and
troughing to our east for the middle of the week keeping us somewhat
persistent in temperatures. Temperatures stick around the mid to
upper 40s with the first chance of precip in the CWA occurring
Wednesday evening as a mid level shortwave trough moves through the
area.  GFS is the only model indicating this feature has enough
moisture to produce some high based rain showers over NW Missouri and
with this uncertainty the PoPs will stay low in the 20-30 percent
range.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST THU DEC 7 2017

Some low to mid level clouds may work their way into the area
Friday afternoon, but lack of support above the surface precludes
any prevailing sub-VFR CIG.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Leighton



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