Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280559

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Issued at 349 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

Very active jetstream pattern over the U.S. this afternoon with
last night`s potent shortwave slowly exiting stage right. Despite
its departure, afternoon visible satellite imagery showing plenty
in the way of low-level cloud cover over the lower Missouri
Valley, as moisture remains trapped below a developing subsidence
inversion. This cloud cover shows little signs of departing
anytime soon and as a result, overnight lows should remain in the
lower to middle 40s across much of the area. By tomorrow, short-
term model solutions show weak shortwave ridging building
overhead, which should keep much of the day and evening hours dry
before rain moves back in after midnight tomorrow night. Before
this happens however, expect highs Tuesday afternoon to warm into
the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region.

Speaking of rain, get ready because the remainder of the work
week look very unsettled as a developing upper trough seen over
the Desert Southwest this afternoon slowly meanders east with
time. Fcst models show this trough eventually closing off over
the Desert Southwest as additional energy over the Pacific
Northwest phases later tonight into Tuesday. By all accounts, the
upper pattern expected by Wednesday will largely resemble a
bona fide winter pattern, with accumulating snowfall expected
across the Central Rockies. Closer to our neck of the woods, a
strengthening low-level jet along the eastern periphery of the
approaching upper closed low will lead to plenty of moisture
advection north into the Nation`s Heartland, with precip expected
to move in around midnight Tuesday night. Instability parameters
remain relatively weak with this system, as the bulk of high
dewpoints remain down over the ARKLATEX region. Despite this,
NAM/GFS MUCAPE fields showing a few hundred joules through the day
on Wednesday, so isolated thunder will remain possible, especially
south of I-70. Considering the slow movement and abundant
moisture supply, the hot button item with this system will be
long duration light to moderate rainfall, which will certainly
help ease some of the drought concerns we`ve had in recent weeks.
By the time all is said and done, widespread amounts of 1-2"
should be common, with a few localized 2.5"+ not out the whelm of
possibilities, especially along and south of Route 36.

Dry weather looks to temporarily return to the area later in the
day on Friday as main closed low exits to the east. Weak ridging
will once again build overhead for the first part of the weekend
as yet another strong storm system intensifies over the Desert
Southwest once again. The first impacts from this feature set to
arrive later in the day on Saturday, with widespread rains once
again expected over the area. Again however, best instability
will remain south of the forecast area, thus widespread thunder
may once again be hard to come by. Overall, temperatures should
remain near, or slightly below seasonal levels through the period,
as precip chances continue and abundant cloud cover remains.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Expecting MVFR CIGs to remain in place over the area through the
rest of the forecast period. Still looking at perhaps some slight
deterioration of the CIGs through the overnight hours and into
Tuesday morning. There are some hints that CIGs could drop into the
IFR category, but that looks like a low probability at this time.
Aside from a few hours of potential MVFR conditions in the early
morning hours VIS should remain IFR through the forecast period.




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