Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231753
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

Today: First shortwave trough exiting the area, with notable
decrease in light radar echoes/drizzle for the area. Temperatures
have remained steady, generally at or above 32, so while patchy
black ice cannot be ruled out, overall impacts should be low from
the overnight drizzle. Widespread dense fog chances seem to be
waning, and if current trends continue, may cancel the ongoing
advisory early. Satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds
nearing the far tip of NW MO, but overall progress of clearing
should be fairly limited today. Warmer day expected with highs
reaching the upper 30s northwest to the middle 40s in central MO.

Tonight/Sat AM: Upper trough over the Intermountain West begins
to make slow progress eastward. Another shortwave trough ejects
ahead of the system overnight tonight, and with isentropic ascent
increasing, anticipate precipitation moving back into the area
from south to north this evening into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings show the majority of this activity to be in the
form of rain, with the exception of far northern Missouri where a
light wintry mix of snow and sleet is expected before changing to
rain Saturday AM. Elsewhere, rain will generally be the
predominant precipitation type, and focus will remain on surface
temperatures and the potential for any icing. There may be a
narrow corridor, north of the Missouri River (north of KC Metro)
and along/south of Highway 36, where a zone of light freezing rain
may occur. In this zone, light icing on elevated surfaces will be
possible, yet with surface temperatures hovering around 31-32,
ice efficiency won`t be that high and primary road surfaces are
expected to be minimally impacted. If impacts look to increase
within this narrow corridor, headlines may need to be considered
for subsequent forecasts.

Saturday PM: All precipitation will transition to rain by late
morning Saturday, and there may even be a notable lull in activity
during the late AM, early PM. However additional precipitation is
expected as a surface low and attendant cold front approach the
area during the afternoon/early evening hours. Ahead of the front,
temperatures will warm into the middle 50s over central MO,
closest to the surface warm front. Some thunder is expected with
the activity across the eastern half of the forecast area, with
the highest reservoir of instability remaining just south of the
area, keeping the threat of severe weather outside of the area.
Rain will rapidly end from west to east as the front sweeps
through the area by midnight.

Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend into
early next work week, with the next chance for wet weather
arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily
rise each day prior to the rain chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

12Z NAM and GFS MOS guidance wants to lift MVFR cigs out this
afternoon however, based on recent satellite trends have sided
with GFS LAMP guidance in keeping MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft all day.
IFR cigs with lgt rain are expected to move into the terminals
around 06Z with rain effecting the terminals thru 15Z. IFR cigs
should cont thru the remainder of the TAF pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...73



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