Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 030437
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015
The upper ridge will shift to the east and amplify somewhat over the
next few days. This will result in continued warmer than normal
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s expected through the start
of the weekend. The strengthening ridge should also inhibit
precipitation chances. However, models show strong moisture
transport into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri tonight,
similar to the last night and this morning. But isentropic lift if
weaker. Still the GFS and GEM develop some precipitation overnight.
Forecast soundings show a dry low levels of the atmosphere and think
with the strengthening ridge and weak lift the chances of seeing
precipitation redevelop is small to keep from mentioning in the
forecast at this point.
The pattern begins to shift by the early part of next week. The
upper ridge begins to flatten and a deep trough, currently over the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia, begins to move east into the the
Intermountain West. This sets up a kind of modified southwesterly
flow regime with potentially multiple shortwave troughs moving
around the base of the main trough and into the center of the CONUS.
As a result, the weather looks unsettled for the first half of next
week with a chance for precipitation in the forecast from Sunday
night/Monday morning through the middle of the week. There are
several periods of time with chance look better. The first is the
Sunday night/monday morning period. As the ridge is being shifted to
the east a weak frontal boundary should slide south into the area.
This low level forcing, combined with weakening heights/thicknesses
should allow for scattered to widespread precipitation to form/move
through the region. That boundary then becomes quasi-stationary and
by the middle part of next week, as the upper flow is somewhat
zonal, becomes activated by a shortwave moving through the area.
This leads to more widespread rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as a
building ridge continues to dominate the pattern for the next few
days. A few models have hinted at overnight precipiation over NW
Missouri. At this point, thinking this will not be a factor with
the ridge in place, coupled with dry air within the lower levels.
Southerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts peaking
just over 20kts at times.