Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 032044

344 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2015

Issued at 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

Very quiet 24 hours or so in store for the forecast area as
surface high pressure moves in and takes control for the holiday.
Lingering moisture across the southern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon as shortwave trough makes its exit could be
enough to generate some light showers with perhaps a rumble of
thunder but any precip will be isolated in nature. With drier air
moving in from the north, it will be a rather pleasant evening as
skies continue to clear out from north to south and dewpoints in
the 50s take over. The pleasant early July weather will continue
through tomorrow with mostly sunny skies lasting all day.

As the high moves off toward the east on Sunday, southerly flow
will return, along with the increasing heat, humidity, and chances
for convection. Plentiful instability will have worked its way
back into the region later in the day on Sunday and with just
enough shear to maintain decent updrafts, could see some stronger
storms possible Sunday late afternoon and into the evening hours
across the western portions of the forecast area. Frontal boundary
working its way down from the NW still looks to cross much of the
forecast area on Monday before slowing and potentially
washing/stalling out somewhere in central to possibly southern MO.
Very good moisture transport into the region will force PWATs to
increase quite a bit ahead of the boundary. This setup looks
reminiscent of yet another potential moderate to heavy rainfall
event but with models wavering on agreement from about Tuesday
onward, still looking for the details to come into better view for
higher confidence on this event`s evolution and local impacts.

As alluded to, models diverge on handling things from the middle
of next week onward. The GFS and GEM seem to be lining up with
each other while the ECMWF depicts a different output. Regardless,
the pattern still generally looks a bit unsettled, opening up the
door for convection chances each day as zonal flow dominates and
perturbations traverses through.

High temps will be on the cooler side for typical early July
temps, reaching the mid 80s for Independence Day. Return to near
normal highs arrive on Sunday and possibly into Monday (at least
across the southern portions of the forecast area), before cooling
back off a bit behind the fropa on Tuesday. Eighties look to
dominate through the latter half of the week and lows will be in
the 60s and 70s, with lower 60s expected tonight.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist for the 24 hour period as surface high
pressure approaches from the north. There is the potential for fog
development overnight with lingering low level moisture and calm
winds, particularly around 10Z-13Z. Otherwise, northeasterly winds
will remain relatively calm while becoming southeasterly by the end
of the period.




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