Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250923
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
323 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Early morning water vapor imagery showing well-advertised northern
stream trough digging across the central Plains this hour...with
accompanying sfc low analyzed over south-central IA per latest 9z
analysis. Upper trough axis will continue sliding southeast across
our area this morning while sfc low tracks into the lower Ohio Vly by
00z this evening. Regional radars now showing initial batch of rain
ahead of the first of two cold fronts to pass today across central
and eastern portions of the CWA...with additional post frontal
activity noted across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

No way to really sugarcoat this one folks as today looks to be downright
miserable as compared to yesterday. Winds to start increasing after sunrise
as initial shot of cold air advection starts to work into the
area...with speeds only increasing through the remainder of the
daylight hrs. North winds of 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph
look common region-wide...with a few gusts as high as 40 mph not out
of question. Secondary area of precip should redevelop after sunrise
as main wave moves overhead. Inspection of several forecast soundings
shows even less probability for snow later today and have continued
to delay snow mention across the north until afternoon when
deeper/colder air moves in. Regardless...no accumulation expected and
would not be surprised if precip remains all liquid as models show
fairly decent drying aloft as heart of coldest air moves in. Temps
today should hold stead in the upper 30s and lower 40s before falling
through the afternoon as cold air arrives behind secondary cold
front. Winds to calm down this evening as max pressure rise couplet
slides into the lower Ohio Vly shortly after 00z this evening.

Dry weather to return tonight as weak high pressure very temporarily
slides into the area. Winds by this time tomorrow should be backing
to the southwest as warm air advection increases over the Great
Plains as a trough of low pressure approaches. Fcst models show
increasing 850 temps through the day with values climbing to near 8c
by afternoon which should allow for low to mid 50s across the
west...with upper 40s far east. From this point forward...main story
will continue to be the warm up as West Coast ridge breaks down and
shifts east with time. Strong warm air advection by Wednesday should
allow low to mid 60s across portions of the area as southerly flow
increase ahead of a developing leeside trough/sfc low. Record high of
65 degrees at MCI may be in jeopardy Wed afternoon.

Cold front to quickly bring an end to the warmth early Thursday with
a return to reality then forecast through the duration of the week. In
collaboration with adjacent offices...have jointly elected to retract
pops with late week/early weekend storm system as both GFS and ECMWF
show bulk of moisture associated with a southern stream disturbance
remaining well south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

First round of rain moving through the region will taper off over the
next few hours. Ceilings and visibilities remain well into VFR so the
only significant impacts will be runway wetting. A lull is expected
later tonight followed by another round of lighter rain Sunday
morning, especially across northern and northeast MO. Could see a few
snowflakes Sunday afternoon toward IRK. Bigger concern will be winds
which could gust higher than 30kts at times Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel





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