Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202105

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 405 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Tonight through Tuesday...

A very quiet and benign period. The only immediate concern is the
potential for areas of frost to form over much of northern MO during
the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning. Clear skies, light or calm
winds and temperatures in the middle 30s should result in areas of

After a cool start on Friday under weak high pressure expect to see
a warmup over the weekend that extends through Tuesday. Warm air
advection will commence as surface pressure falls develop across the
Plains as upper level ridging expands across the Rockies and into
the Plains. Lacking moisture we should see decent diurnal
temperature spreads.

A weak cold front will push through Sunday night but no sensible
weather issues expected, just a minor col down for Monday. By
Tuesday mid/upper level moisture will begin to spread in from the
west ahead of the next weather maker

Tuesday night - Thursday...

Medium range models have come into better agreement with a shortwave
trough tracking east across the Central Plains. While low level
moisture return will be limited due to weak return flow out of the
western Gulf of Mexico there should be sufficient moisture carried
in from the Pacific plus enough lift to support at least scattered
convection. Don`t expect mush of a cool down in the post frontal
airmass as a maritime airmass will push into the region.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Scattered showers should exit central MO by 19z with clearing skies
spreading southeast across northern and west central MO and eastern
KS. VFR conditions expected during this forecast period although some
concern that NE/SD low-end MVFR stratus could work into northwest MO
very late tonight. Models probably not handling this thin band of
moisture very well but do think it will stay north and west of the
TAF sites. Nevertheless will pass along to next shift to monitor
this stratus and adjust forecasts accordingly.


KS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for KSZ102.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-



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