Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272027
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Its that time of year where fcsts become convoluted at best thanks to
weak flow patterns aloft and convective feedback problems with
various numerical weather models. Unfortunately we`re in the middle
of such a scenario much of this week as ridging continues to build
across the Rockies...and models continue to hint at several
disturbances impacting our region in developing NW flow aloft.
Meanwhile out of the gate this afternoon...current attention is
focused up north across southwest Iowa where a stray supercell has
formed in close proximity to a remnant 925/850 hPa thermal boundary
which lagged the surface front that passed across the region
yesterday. High-res models to include the HRRR show this activity
weakening in the next few hours as it continues to settle south into
a less and less favorable environment. In any event...portions of NW
Missouri could be impacted and have increased pops across these areas
this afternoon. Considering the gradual weakening trend suggested by
regional models...this activity should only pose a limited severe wx
threat...but an isolated strong wind gust or large hail report will
be possible before activity diminishes. Heading into tonight...fcst
models in excellent agreement with taking the aforementioned boundary
and pushing it south across our region during the late evening and
overnight hrs. Contrary to previous model runs however...the 12z
model suite highlights developing precipitation along this feature
which should see some minor forcing contributions from a weak
shortwave expected to pass directly west of our region during the
early morning hours. Am a little hesitant to go much higher than low-
end chance pops as afternoon layered precipitable water imagery shows
a notable drying trend occurring across the region this afternoon.
Regardless...no large-scale heavy rain signals are seen and any rain
can be considered beneficial at this point.

Weak boundary to pass across the region during the AM hours with any
remnant precip likely coming to an end after 12z. Cooler air will
begin to settle into the region following its passage with high
temps expected to warm into the lower to middle 80s as compared to
today`s low 90s. What looked like a dry midweek is anything but per
latest model runs as today`s are more and more insistent that
convection will fire along the boundary which should stall right to
our west by midweek. Combine this with the expectation that several
shortwaves will pass across...or in close proximity in northwest flow
aloft...felt best to maintain/increase pops through the mid portions
of the work week. From this vantage point...most concentrated
activity may arrive Wednesday night/Thursday as a modest shortwave
approaches and as stated previously...any rain can certainly help!

Heading into the weekend...large-scale flow pretty well agreed upon
by long range models with indications suggesting a gradual breakdown
of the western U.S. ridge axis and an eventual return of zonal flow
across the Nation`s midsection. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a front
stalling south of our region by the weekend with early indications
suggesting the Gulf will be wide open for ample moisture transport
north into the Missouri Vly. As such...a wet and unsettled pattern
looks to persist through the conclusion of the fcst period with an
eventual return of near normal temps thanks to returning zonal flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main concerns going forward this afternoon involve renewed precip
chances during the early morning hours as a slow moving cold front
slides south over the region. For now...the current thought is that
the most widespread activity will remain west and northwest of the
lower Missouri Valley...however cannot rule out a few isolated cells
sliding south over area terminals. As a result...have decided to
offer a VC mention at all forecast locations...with TS reserved for
STJ which will be in closer proximity to expected upstream
convection. Later updates will be able to address timing a little bit
better once upstream trends are established. Otherwise...VFR
conditions and light winds expected to dominate through the fcst
cycle.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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