Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 311959

259 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Issued at 259 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

In the short term, the main focus is on thunderstorm chances
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. In the interim, quiet weather is
expected this evening and tonight as surface high pressure drifts
slowly across the region.

Convergence along the approaching frontal boundary will increase SSE
winds throughout the warm sector tomorrow, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower 80s and moisture to surge up into the region.
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected to dampen wildfire
danger; however, gusty winds will still at least slightly enhance
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours. Quite a bit of
elevated instability will build under these conditions, but a
significant inversion centered around 800 hPa should preclude isolated
warm sector development, especially near the KC area where the
thermal axis sets up aloft.

Widespread convection is expected to fire along the cold front from
north central KS into west central IA by mid to late afternoon, and
will begin to propagate east southeast along and ahead of the front
as the parent shortwave trough turns mid- to upper-level winds more
to the west. The best potential for strong to severe storms will
occur in the 03z-06z timeframe if storms can move off the boundary
and into the warm sector in northwest or far northern MO; however,
the ability of any storms to remain surface based in the presence of
the substantial cap and as the boundary layer continues to decouple
diurnally remains uncertain. The primary threat for any strong to
severe storms late Wednesday night will be gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail with stronger updrafts.

As the shortwave trough approaches and shear vectors become better
oriented along the boundary, messier storm structure is anticipated,
and the main threat will quickly transition to heavy rain. Ongoing
convection from central KS and southeast NE will slide into the area
while new precipitation forms along the boundary, making storms very
likely across the majority of the forecast area, but the strong/
severe potential low. Frontal passage will slow during the morning
hours, but should occur sometime around or slightly before noon in
the KC area, and rainfall will lighten as it takes on a more
stratiform character behind the boundary. Regeneration of ongoing
showers and storms is expected along the cold front on Thursday
afternoon, but morning convection will likely decrease instability
ahead of the front, and the threat for strong storms will remain
south of the CWA Thursday afternoon.

A second round of post-frontal showers is expected Friday as the
main trough axis passes into the region. Cooler temperatures will
also build into the region for the end of the work week, with highs
only expected to reach the lower 50s Friday. Surface high pressure
will drift into eastern KS and western MO early Saturday morning
behind the departing rain showers, allowing temperatures to drop to
near the freezing mark in much of the forecast area, potentially
resulting a frost for many locations. Warmer temperatures are
anticipated thereafter and southerly flow returns on Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Monday and Tuesday as a
surface low ejects out into Nebraska and a trailing dryline sets up
through the central and southern Plains. Have left lower-end PoPs
for much of early next week due to uncertainty in timing and the
possibility of several rounds of storms, and will have to continue to
watch the setup for some strong or severe storms by the end of the
forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. East
northeast winds will gradually become light and variable tonight,
then will increase out of the SSE by mid-morning Wednesday, at speeds
generally between 10 and 20 kts. A few scattered clouds will begin to
build in by the end of the forecast period, but bases should remain
above 5 kft.




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