Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181132

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Issued at 441 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2018

Looks like a dry windy end to the weekend; but more rain, and
possibly ice, is on the way early this work week.

Satellite imagery shows a zonal flow prevail across the middle of
the Nation this morning, though a large shortwave trough is also
noted sweeping south along the West Coast; and it will be this
trough that dictates the weather over the next few days.

For Today...the trough across Weest Coast will continue to dig
south, helping kick the flow form its current zonal form to the
southwest as we move into the beginning of the work week. Downstream
effects from this pattern evolution are already being seen with
the lee-side troughing in Wyoming and increasing pressure gradient
across the Plains. The low will shift more fully into the Plains
today, tightening the pressure gradient across Kansas and Missouri
rather significantly. Add in a low level jet ahead of the front
and momentum transfer as morning boundary layer mixing gets going,
and it is looking to be a rather windy day. Think we will hit
advisory wind criteria in the counties of far northwest Missouri
and adjacent northeast Kansas for at least a few hours late this
morning or this afternoon. Have issued a wind advisory for those
sections of the forecast area today. Additionally, today`s strong
winds and warm temperatures will significantly increase the fire
weather threat as afternoon humidity values drop to around 30

For tonight into the work looks like we will be dealing
with an active pattern as the southwest flow looks to dominate the
Plains States; possibly through next weekend. For late Sunday night
through Monday that means rain. The developing southwest flow will
have sufficient time to pick up and transport moisture north today,
and will start inducing some light rain/drizzle as early as the late
tonight. Temperatures late tonight through the day Monday will be
plenty warm to limit precipitation types to all liquid. Of course,
those self same warm temperatures also point at a bit of instability
available, which may fuel some embedded thunderstorm activity with
the light, but widespread, rain expected during the day Monday.
However, as the front pushes in Monday night through Tuesday,
rainfall will likely increase and precipitation types will likely
change. Complicating matters is the notable fact that confidence in
how quickly the cold air moves in behind the front is a bit iffy,
as the NAM is much quicker and more aggressive with the cold air
than the GFS/CAN/EC; and that has a significant effect on the
expected weather type Tuesday.

Currently, the consensus among the majority of the models is that
the cold air will move in slowly, which would likely spare much
of the forecast area from significant wintry precipitation
accumulation (outside of far northwest Missouri) as what
precipitation there is moves east ahead of the cold air. The NAMs
faster cold air solution points at a much higher potential for
wintry weather; and given the lack of notable ice crystals in
model soundings for Tuesday, freezing rain is very possible. This
is also an issue noted in other model solutions, but the limited
time and area covered by wintry precipitation lowers the broader
public impacts. Given the current forecast, areas north and west
of a St Joseph to Bethany line look to possibly pick up notable
ice accumulations Monday night into Tuesday as the frontal
boundary, and cold air, are expected to be wallowing across that
corner of Missouri for some 24 hours. When the cold air finally
sweeps southeast there may be some wintry precipitation across the
rest of Kansas and Missouri, but accumulations will likely be
rather light compared to the liquid rain received ahead of it.
Otherwise, temperatures will likely be coldest Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with another chance for precipitation Friday.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail today along with strong and gusty
south winds. This evening the gusty wind will ease up a bit as
the boundary layer decouples, but moisture moving north will
bring CIGs that drop through the MVFR into the IFR, and maybe even
the LIFR, range by midnight Monday morning. This will include rain
and maybe thunderstorms, for early Monday morning.


KS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for KSZ025-102.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ001>005-011-012-020.



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