Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201102

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Issued at 329 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

A narrow band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is lifting into
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri as of early Monday.
This activity is part of a larger train of moisture advecting from
the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, ahead of a deepening
neutral-tilt upper trough moving into the Central Plains. The
upper level system is in the early beginnings of becoming a cutoff
low as a broad upper level trough continues to cross into the
Pacific Northwest. Water vapor imagery depicts this trend with
convection over the Southern Plains separating from the line of
showers and thunderstorms closer to the forecast area. As a
result, by the time the upper level steering flow shifts this
activity across the CWA, the greater chances of precipitation will
reside over northern Missouri, coincident with better forcing
that will separate from the more organized upper level system as
depicted Sunday night. Moisture will remain readily available,
however, and rainfall totals near a quarter inch to perhaps near
half an inch for areas across northern Missouri are possible by
the time the system pushes eastward. With marginal elevated
instability redeveloping by the afternoon, isolated to scattered
thunderstorm activity is possible, in addition to gusty winds
along the band of storms as it advances eastward. The line of
activity will steadily progress from west to east by Monday
afternoon once the upper level pattern begins to better organize.
By Monday evening, precipitation chances will taper off, thus
bringing to an end the first of multiple chances of precipitation
through the upcoming week.

Despite rain chances and lingering cloud cover through much of the
day, high temperatures will once again reach into the upper 60s and
upper 70s given the persistent warm advection pattern. The warming
trend will continue even further both Tuesday and Wednesday as 850
hPa temperatures rise steadily ahead of the next storm system. A
broad upper trough over the western CONUS will eject several
shortwave troughs overhead by the late week, with a surface low
developing by Thursday night into Friday morning. An attendant warm
front will lift north of I-70 during this time and will be the
forcing mechanism for the next round of precipitation in the form of
rain showers and thunderstorms for areas near and north of the
Missouri River. Seasonal temperatures will then return on the
backside of the surface low and will linger across the area through
the weekend. A wintry mix is possible across northern Missouri
Friday night, with minor snow accumulations possible well north of
Highway 36. Another storm system looks to impact the area early next
week, and depending on the track of the surface low, more widespread
snow chances are possible with this activity. However, with much
uncertainty remaining with regard to the thermal profile and the
track of the surface low, any precipitation may still assume the
form of liquid rain or a wintry mix.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 452 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

Periods of light to moderate rain are possible through the
morning and early afternoon hours, though conditions should remain
mostly VFR during this time. A minor reduction in visibility and
ceiling height is possible, however, within areas of stronger
activity. Should the band of showers stall over western Missouri
during the afternoon, embedded thunderstorms are possible. May
need to adjust the timing of storms exiting the terminals in the
next issuance, though the system as a whole should be progressive
enough to provide for dry conditions this afternoon. Otherwise,
winds will shift out of the northwest overnight with clearing sky




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