Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 062039
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
239 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 239 PM CST WED DEC 6 2017

Regional radars showing an band of light returns heading our way
from southern Nebraska this afternoon, with SPC mesoanalysis
indicating supportive forcing from upper PV energy and weak low-
level frontogenesis. Quick look at latest obs shows 20 degree
dewpoint depressions, suggesting the majority of this activity
should fall in the form of light sprinkles or flurries, however a
brief shower or two cannot be ruled out. Considering the dry low-
level airmass, wetbulb effects will support a rain/snow mix under
the heaviest activity, however no accumulation is expected at
this time. This activity should exit stage right after 00z this
evening with attention then shifting to the inbound cold front that
will result in a significant cooldown as Arctic air surges
southward following its passage. This feature will continue
sliding south across the region tonight setting the stage for
cold Thursday morning as lows fall into the upper teens for most.
Sunrise will bring little relief as northwest winds and continued
cold air advection through the day that will only result in
modest recovery as highs Thursday afternoon only top out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s for most.

Another cold morning will be in store for the area on Friday with
lows once again falling into the upper teens. We`ll finally start
to see a little recovery by Friday afternoon as southerly winds
briefly return to the area in advance of a storm system passing to
our north. Recent model runs had advertised precip down across
the lower Missouri Valley with its passage, however this threat
appears to be fairly limited per latest runs which for the most
part have removed much of the QPF mention. Temperatures will
continue a slight warming trend as we head into the weekend as
southerly flow becomes a little better established over the area,
with Sunday looking to be the warmer of the two weekend days as
highs climb back up into the 50s.

Benign weather pattern to continue right into next week despite
the passage of yet another cold front late Monday. From this
vantage point, limited moisture return in advance of this feature
should keep the threat for widespread precipitation in check as
return flow looks to be cutoff once again. Cooler air looks to
arrive by midweek as high pressure again builds south from the
Northern Plains on Tuesday. All told, a pretty quiet late fall
season looks to continue...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST WED DEC 6 2017

BKN low-level clouds centered near 4kft will move into the area
this afternoon as a shortwave trough passes overhead. Northwest
winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts will continue this
afternoon, before weakening some this evening. Winds will remain
from the northwest through the conclusion of the fcst period with
clearing skies expected after daybreak.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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