Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Issued at 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A MCS pushed into the southern portion of the CWA overnight creating
some residual PoPs over the SE portion of the CWA, but is expected to
dissipate before sunrise. A weak cold frontal boundary over the IA/MO
border will push to the south creating just enough forcing for some
isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms to form over the western
CWA. This boundary and associated upper level short wave will move
into southern MO by late morning setting the stage for where
thunderstorm development will occur Friday afternoon. Most forcing
and surface moisture needed for convective development will stay
near this boundary leading to the southern counties of the CWA being
effected by thunderstorms. There will be weak SBCAPE
(700-1000J/kg) and decent 0-6km shear (40-45kts) so there is
the possibility of an isolated severe cell developing. A weak
upper level short wave and surface trough will push into the NE
portion of the CWA Friday afternoon also resulting in a chance for
isolated non-severe thunderstorm development.

The boundary over southern MO remains stationary for most of Saturday
keeping any chance for showers or thunderstorms over the southern
counties of the CWA. Overnight Saturday, the boundary begins to lift
back towards the NE as a warm frontal boundary with a low level jet
developing over SE KS. This boundary will be the best bet for any
widespread precipitation as it moves through the CWA. The elevated
convection is not expected to be severe, with weak MUCAPE in place
over the region as the boundary pushes through. The boundary
will continue to push to the NE Sunday afternoon with another round
of convection expected over the NE portion of the CWA. Multiple
rounds of convection may occur over this region through Tuesday as
the boundary stalls in a NW-SE orientation. This may bring some much
needed rainfall to the NE region of the CWA.

Ridging will start to build into the region Monday on the backside of
the frontal boundary increasing heights and temperatures. With
a persistent southerly flow Mon-Fri the temperatures increase back
into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Heat Index
values of 100-105F for most of next week are looking more and more
likely with little relief until next weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period, but there
may be brief MVFR this afternoon as diurnal CU build and then lift
with time. Also, tonight, fog looks possible across northern Missouri
which may build southward with time. It`s most likely to impact KSTJ
but may build into the MCI terminal. Winds will be generally light
and from the north through the period.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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