Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 181127
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing widespread sub-freezing conditions resulting in a hard
  freeze through mid-morning today.

- Enhanced fire danger conditions Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The long-advertised hard freezing is ongoing this morning with
temperatures already in the middle 20s outside of the KC urban area.
Needless to say, this will be a concern through mid-morning for any
sensitive plants and vegetation that have experienced early growth.
A cold airmass will remain in place today as the center of surface
high pressure slides southward over eastern Kansas. Highs today will
remain around 10 degrees below normal in the lower to middle 40s.
For tonight, lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, but the
duration may be short-lived as models hint at the airmass modifying
overnight as southerly winds return to the area.

High pressure slides off to the south on Tuesday, with weak upper
ridging, and westerly H85 winds developing nosing a thermal axis
into the CWA, spelling a quick warmup after a cool start. Highs
Tuesday afternoon will be some 25 degrees warmer than today,
reaching the middle 60s to middle 70s.

Both this afternoon and again Tuesday will see enhanced fire weather
concerns with breezy winds and relative humidity values falling into
the 25-30 percent range during the afternoons. Certainly any fire
occurring in cured fuels will have the potential to spread during the
afternoon.

By Wednesday, a weak cold front sags southward and is generally set
to reside just south of the forecast area for the remainder of the
week. The airmass just behind the frontal zone is not particularity
cool, and temperatures are expected to remain near or above normal
through the weekend. The official forecast maintains several chances
for rainfall Thursday through Monday, a function of the model blends
and uncertainty. It is unlikely to rain every period, with no
obvious signal for any type of washout event. As we move closer to
these periods, more detail will be available to delineate the
specific windows of precipitation. Overall, no hazardous weather is
anticipated with this activity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with generally
clear skies prevailing. NW winds should increase by later this
morning with sustained winds on the order of 10 to 13 knots
before relaxing later this afternoon. Winds should shift to out
of the southwest by late this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...BMW


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