Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 071737
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Forecast remains on track from previous package and only minor
adjustments were required. Shortwave ridging currently in place and
with a brief window of warming H85 temperatures and starting this
morning relatively warm, shouldn`t have much of a problem reaching
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the forecast area this afternoon.
Attention turns to approaching upper disturbance over the northern
plains that will dive southeast and rapidly amplify. This system
will bring two aspects of notable weather - gusty winds and light
but potentially impactful snow showers. Healthy pressure gradient
should yield gusty northwest winds today into Monday afternoon.
Sustained winds will exceed 20 kts this afternoon with higher gusts,
with sustained speeds in excess of 25 kts Monday afternoon. While we
will be just short of wind advisory speeds today, it`s looking
increasingly likely to reach criteria on Monday. Otherwise,
attention turns to snowfall potential tonight into Monday. As
described in detail in previous discussions, concern for showery,
convective-type snows are expected with this system with modest
instability within a deep dendritic growth zone. Several high-
resolution and CAMs infer this type of showery convection,
increasing confidence in forecast scenario. While overall moisture
is limited with this system and snowfall totals will average under
one inch, snowfall that does occur will feature higher than climo
snowfall ratios and quick-burst type snowfall, rapidly reducing
visibility in a short-period of time due to the convective nature.
These types of events are notorious for dangerous travel conditions
due to the spotty nature of no-snow versus a rapid deterioration of
moderate snowfall with poor visibility. This potential travel
impact, combined with the gusty wind speeds, are the primary
concerns to convey over the next 36 hours. The remaining portion of
the forecast looks quiet and dry with no notable weather systems
anticipated to impact the area. Temperatures will be much cooler
during the early work week, with gradually moderating temperatures
each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Then ceilings will
begin to drop as colder air moves into the area. Winds will continue
to increase this afternoon from the west-northwest. There may be some
decrease in winds at sunset but winds are expected to continue
increasing overall later tonight and especially through the day
tomorrow. The other issue will isolated to scattered snow
showers/squalls in the area. Given the coverage will continue with
just a low impact -SHSN mention. But if a terminal sees a heavier
squall there will be brief IFR conditions. The most likely timing of
this should be from around 09Z through 15Z with coverage diminishing
later tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...CDB


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