641
FXUS63 KEAX 022055
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple rounds of thunderstorms are expected between now and
Tuesday night. A few stronger storms could produce wind gusts to 60
mph, large hail, or local flooding.

- Drier, less humid conditions expected Wednesday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, a zonal flow is
currently dominating much of the Nation, with several small
shortwave perturbations noted due to the MCVs generated by storms
overnight seen across the Plains States. Activity from last nights
decaying storms in eastern Kansas is still slowing shifting northeast
through Missouri into Iowa, but has only resulted in isolated storms
across far west, and northwest to north central Missouri. This
limited activity will move northeast quickly through he rest of the
afternoon, but is not expected to do much other than bring a quick
bout of heavy rain. Otherwise, for today, the storms that keep
developing to our west across Central Kansas and Nebraska are
feeding on broad area south to north moisture advection that is
occurring ahead of a trough that is moving through the intermountain
west this afternoon. This afternoons activity is not expected to
reach KC, and should keep falling apart as it moves east owing to
the storms racing away from the moisture advection.

Tonight into Monday...as the intermountain shortwave begins to exit
into the Plains tonight the nocturnal jet will ramp up notably. With
that will come still more moisture advection; and with precipitable
water values over 1.5 inches poised across Oklahoma we expect this
to feed another complex of storms across Nebraska and Kansas through
Monday morning. Confidence in model solutions is not very high owing
to the very nebulous nature of MCVs in a zonal flow with lots of
available moisture. That said, model solutions indicate that storms
will develop across the High Plains and move east overnight but will
start falling apart as they move into eastern Nebraska and Kansas.
However, towards Monday morning solutions indicate that the cold
pool becomes dominate and the nocturnal jet begins to break up.
Storms that do persist into Missouri Monday morning may have enough
shear to warrant a threat of strong damaging winds, along with local
flooding from the heavy rain. For the rest of Monday afternoon and
Monday night expectations are that the morning activity will slowly
decay as it moves through with a modest potential for more storms.

Tuesday will see our next good chance for storms return as a
shortwave, currently still over the Pacific, zips east quickly into
the Northern Plains bringing a frontal passage Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Available moisture, as the front moves through, indicates
that heavy rain will be a threat again, though with the shear around
a frontal boundary hail and wind may also be an issue. Otherwise,
with the passage of the cold front expect the humidity to dip for
the later half of the work week with temperatures climbing into the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR CIGs and widely scattered showers start this TAF cycle
across the Kansas-Missouri state line as they are what is left
of a convective complex that moved into east Kansas early this
morning. Current showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in
central Kansas are not currently expected to make it as far east
as our KC terminals, but they will need to be watched
carefully. Better chance for storms looks to arrive early
Monday morning from another complex of storms moving across
Nebraska and Kansas. Timing, and how far the complex pushes into
Missouri, are all still very uncertain at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter