Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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803 FXUS63 KABR 021204 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 704 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning thunderstorms have diminished in intensity after 10Z, with only a few lightning strikes remaining. While small hail is possible in the strongest storms, most will remain sub- severe. - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area. All severe weather hazards are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. - There is around a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday, mainly focused over eastern SD/west central MN. Some storms could become strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing east of the Missouri River to the James River this morning. Radar indicates that a few have been capable of producing small hail. While most will remain below severe limits, we will continue to monitor them as they are borderline in this marginal atmosphere. The supercell composite parameter in this area is between 2-4. Additional storms are over southwestern SD, and will need to be monitored later this morning. A stronger line of storms is expected to develop this evening weakening the cap, ahead of a frontal boundary shifting across the region. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms to develop in this line. These storms should exit into Minnesota late tonight into the early overnight hours Monday. Dry weather should then dominate our weather after 08Z Monday through mid afternoon when additional showers move into central SD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Monday evening we will be in generally west to southwest flow aloft as a trough moves towards the region. This trough will sweep across the area from west to east Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Deterministic models show the trough elongating and widening Wednesday with the northwest flow pattern remaining through Thursday. Models start to disagree after this. The EC shows the low at the center of the trough continuing to circulate over the Great Lakes region with several more lows dipping south out of Canada to enlarge the trough and spread it further west back into our area through the end of the period. The GFS and Canadian however, show the trough becoming more concentrated around the low and our area transitioning into more of a straight northerly flow pattern as a ridge forms to our west with a high over the Four Corners region. Tuesday looks like the best chance for some showers/storms. Along the ND/SD border NBM is showing 30-50% PoPs Tuesday morning as the cold front moves across. Tuesday afternoon and evening, rain chances increase east of Hwy 281 along the cold front (30-50%). MLCAPE east of the James River Valley Tuesday afternoon is around 1000 to 1500 J/kg with bulk shear between 40 and 50 kts. Lapse rates are low, between 5.5 and 6.0 C/km. Given this, storms are possible, but it is hard to say if any will become severe. There is a 15 to 20% chance for some light showers over far northeastern SD and west central MN Wednesday as the low continues to circulate. Afterwards, the rest of the period is expected to be dry. Temperatures through the period will remain around normal with highs in the 70s. Lows will also be around normal, in the low 50s. with CAA on Wednesday we could get some higher winds with gusts of 40+ mph possible west river. This looks to be the strongest winds of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 704 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR ceilings and visibility will be interrupted by showers and thunderstorms through this evening, with the strongest storms expected as early as 20Z today to 01Z Monday at MBG and similarly at PIR. However, most storms are expected to stay northeast of PIR later today. For ABR the timing will be between 23Z today and 02Z Monday, with ATY generally between 02-05Z Monday. MVFR ceilings are forecast at ATY after 05Z. Large hail of over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 70-80 mph will be the main concern with the strongest storms late this afternoon through this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...KF